Early Grass Talk - 2019

[GameSetAndMath]

There are plenty of things to discuss. But to begin with I want to point out that Federer actually has quite reasonable chances of getting #2 seeding in Wimbledon.

Rafa will be leading Roger in ATP ranking points by 7945-6670 = 1275.

The grass fomula adds ALL the grass points earned starting from Antalya/Eastbourne 2018
and going upto Halle/Queens 2019 (including Wimbledon 2018).

As last year, Rafa reached SF and Roger reached QF only, Rafa will add a further
720-360=360 to his lead. So, his lead will be 1635.

However, the grass formula also adds 75% of points earned in one grass tournament
(in which the player got the maximum number of points) during
the period Antalya/Eastbourne 2017 and goin upto Halle/Queens 2018. Roger won
Wimbledon 2017 and so his bonus would be 0.75*2000= 1500. Rafa exited in the
4th round of Wimbledon 2017 (thanks to Muller) and so his bonus will be
0.75* 180 = 135.

So, Rafa's real lead over Roger in the grass formula right now

= 1635 -1500 + 135 = 270.

So, Roger needs to boost 270 more points in order to get #2 seeding in Wimbledon.

But, as Halle/London points will be double counted, all that Roger needs to do is
to outperform Rafa by 135 points in the Halle/London event.

This means even if Rafa does not play in Queens, Roger needs to reach SF in Halle.

If Rafa reaches QF at Queens, Fed should reach the finals at Halle.

If Rafa reaches SF at Queens, Fed should win Halle.

If Rafa reaches Finals in Queens, Fed simply cannot get #2 seeding.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If Ralph reaches second week, he would again become a contender potentially. Last year Rafa got a draw that was free of big servers/hitters and Rafa sailed smooth into the second week. Once he reaches second week with worn out grass and new found confidence anything, including the unthinkable, could happen. So, we cannot underestimate.

Let us hope draw gods show some mercy this time. We need the services of Opelka, Isner, Karlovic and Anderson in succession.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Looked at the entry list for Queens 2019. Rafa has not entered. Of course, if he still wants to play the tourney will be happy to give him a WC.

On the other hand, not only that Roger is in the entry list for Halle 2019, he actually announced (after exiting from RG) that he will indeed go to Halle and play there.

Assuming Rafa sticks to his decision and does not play Queens, all grass formula calculations and seeding scenario are
further simplified.

If Roger can reach Semifinals (basically he needs to win three matches), then Roger is assured of a #2 seeding at Wimbledon.
Anything less, Ralph will be #2.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If you are wondering why this #2 seed business is important, it ensures that He will be in the other half far away from Novak and can play Novak only in the finals. Roger was denied twice (in 2014 and 2015) by Novak in the finals.

If Novak is in the other half, there is always the possibility of Novak getting upset by someone before the finals.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nadal to skip Wimbledon warm-ups
Rafael Nadal says he will not play in any warm-up tournaments before Wimbledon.

Nadal hasn't entered a grass-court tournament ahead of Wimbledon in any season since 2015. That year, he appeared in two grass events between Roland Garros and the All England Club -- and then lost in the second round at Wimbledon.

"Why do I need to change that? ... What gives me [a] better chance is to be healthy than playing a lot of matches," Nadal said Sunday after winning his 12th French Open title.

Nadal's two Wimbledon titles came in 2008 and 2010. He is also a three-time runner-up at the grass-court Grand Slam tournament, but he hasn't reached the final since 2011.

Wimbledon starts July 1.

-- The Associated Press

 

[rafanoy1992]

Nadal to skip Wimbledon warm-ups
Rafael Nadal says he will not play in any warm-up tournaments before Wimbledon.

Nadal hasn't entered a grass-court tournament ahead of Wimbledon in any season since 2015. That year, he appeared in two grass events between Roland Garros and the All England Club -- and then lost in the second round at Wimbledon.

"Why do I need to change that? ... What gives me [a] better chance is to be healthy than playing a lot of matches," Nadal said Sunday after winning his 12th French Open title.

Nadal's two Wimbledon titles came in 2008 and 2010. He is also a three-time runner-up at the grass-court Grand Slam tournament, but he hasn't reached the final since 2011.

Wimbledon starts July 1.

-- The Associated Press

Did you have the website in which the grass rankings are calculated match by match? I forgot to bookmark that website...

I am more curious on which quarter will Tsitsipas, Delpo and Anderson will land on...they are definitely the top three players AFTER the Big Three on Wimbledon.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Did you have the website in which the grass rankings are calculated match by match? I forgot to bookmark that website...

.

I calculated myself for just Fedal.

The grass formula points are not officially maintained by anyone. Since we know the formula, anyone can calculate using the formula. Some fans have maintained their own calculations for all players. I don't have them bookmarked. Even if you have it bookmarked from last year, there is no guarantee that they will be maintaining it this year. But, sufficient number of people are obsessed with this that somebody or other will update the scenario match by match. It should not be difficult to find out by google search.

But, it is way too early and is not probably up and running at this time.

 

[Michael;Kiwi]

Openers rankings.com has it although I’m not sure if it’s accurate.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Thanks Michael. It is Open Era Rankings (not opener). They do maintain live Wimbledon seedings based on the formula.

At the moment, here are the top 8 seeds.

1. Novak
2. Rafa
3. Roger
4. Anderson
5. Thiem
6. Sasha
7. Nishikori
8. Perseus

As I mentioned earlier, Rafa and Roger will interchange their spots provided Roger reaches SF at Halle. The top 8 seeds are unlikely to change as a set (as #9's formula points are quite behind that of #8). However, the seeding points of Anderson through Perseus is so close that they can change the ordering amongst themselves in myriad ways.

Here is the link to live grass seedings .

They maintain rankings based on many different aspects. So, in case you think the list that you see is not correct, make sure you click the "Wimbly Race" button in it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Sorry folks, I goofed off in my calculations. I forgot to take into account that Fed's 250 points from Stuttgart and 300 point from Halle will come off of his rankings. The OP said Rafa's lead is 270.

But, really Rafa's lead is 270+250+300 = 820.

But, as this year's Halle will be double counted, Fed needs to get 410 or more in Halle.

The only way to do that is for Fed to win Halle title. So the bottom line is the bottom line (pun intended).

If Fed wins Halle, he gets #2 seeding in Wimbledon and anything less, he is #3 seed.

 

[tented]

Thanks Michael. It is Open Era Rankings (not opener). They do maintain live Wimbledon seedings based on the formula.

At the moment, here are the top 8 seeds.

1. Novak
2. Rafa
3. Roger
4. Anderson
5. Thiem
6. Sasha
7. Nishikori
8. Perseus

As I mentioned earlier, Rafa and Roger will interchange their spots provided Roger reaches SF at Halle. The top 8 seeds are unlikely to change as a set. However, the seeding points of Anderson through Perseus is so close that they can change the ordering amongst themselves in myriad ways.

Here is the link to live grass seedings .

They maintain rankings based on many different aspects. So, in case you think the list that you see is not correct, make sure you click the "Wimbly Race" button in it.

Anderson gets pushed up to No. 4 seed — that’s a huge advantage. He hasn’t played since Miami, though, so there’s a question of how ready he’ll be for Wimbledon.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Anderson gets pushed up to No. 4 seed — that’s a huge advantage. He hasn’t played since Miami, though, so there’s a question of how ready he’ll be for Wimbledon.

Anderson's #4 is not guaranteed. He is #4 at the moment. Depending upon what happens during the warm-up tourneys, he may get relegated. There is just 70 points separating him and Thiem. Also, one needs to remember that the points obtained in the grass warm-up tourneys of this year (except the one in the week before Wimby) will be double counted. I feel that one or more of the players below Anderson will indeed pass him.

I think there will be fierce competition in a tight race for the #4 seed between Perseus, Sasha and Thiem. Looks like Thiem plans to play only one warmup event whereas the other two are planning to play two. With just 470 points separating current #4 and current #8 and considering that grass points of this year will be double counted anything can happen.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Sorry folks, I goofed off in my calculations. I forgot to take into account that Fed's 250 points from Stuttgart and 300 point from Halle will come off of his rankings. The OP said Rafa's lead is 270.

But, really Rafa's lead is 270+250+300 = 820.

But, as this year's Halle will be double counted, Fed needs to get 410 or more in Halle.

The only way to do that is for Fed to win Halle title. So the bottom line is the bottom line (pun intended).

If Fed wins Halle, he gets #2 seeding in Wimbledon and anything less, he is #3 seed.

So, the draw for Halle is kinda crucial for Federer. Also, he needs to try to finish the matches as soon as possible in order to be fresh for the final

 

[GameSetAndMath]

So, the draw for Halle is kinda crucial for Federer. Also, he needs to try to finish the matches as soon as possible in order to be fresh for the final

Yep. Sasha, Thiem and Samurai are the other top 4 seeds in Halle. Coric and KK also play there. There is a some chance that Fed may muck up in Halle and be seeded #3 (and draw Novak in his half). On the other hand given that he played on clay, he is not likely to be rusty and so there is a good chance he will win the event.

 

[El Dude]

Kind of sad that there will be no Andy Murray at Queens this year.

 

[Moxie]

Kind of sad that there will be no Andy Murray at Queens this year.

But he will be playing doubles with Deliciano Lopez there. (Nod to Judy Murray.)

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the early odds for winning Wimbledon:

1. Novak 13/8 (38.10%)
2. Roger 4 (20%)
3. Ralph 13/2 (13.33%)

4. Sasha 16 (5.88%)
5. JMDP 22 (4.35%)
6. Perseus 25 (3.85%)
7. Badboy 28 (3.45%)
8. Milos / Cilic 30 (3.23%)
10. Murray 33 (2.95%)
11. Kandy 40 (2.44%)

12. Thiem 50 (1.96%)
13. Medvedev 63 (1.56%)
14. Stan / Shapo / Isner / KK 66 (1.52%)
18. Baby / Samurai 80 (1.23%)
20. Edmund / Goffin 100 (1%)

Here are my observations:

a. Sorry Feddies, sadly, we have reached a point where Roger is not even considered a favorite for Wimbledon.
b. There are three contenders (no need to name them), 8 pretenders and 10 honorable mentions.
c. I personally would remove both Murray and Edmund off the list. They are there to empty the
wallets of some native patriotic Britishers.
d. They are right on money in recognizing that Thiem and Stan are not even pretenders on grass.

Next update after the tourneys in Stuttgart and Netherlands are completed.

p.s. @DarthFed: Note that the peasant cannot be written off even here.

 

[Moxie]

Nadal is not a peasant. He is the great errant Knight, Don Quixote. Yes, grass for him is sometimes tilting at windmills, but he keeps up the honorable fight. Go ahead and try to find something that elegant in Swiss or Serbian literature. I'd suggest that makes Roger "Heidi."

 

[monfed]

I think Fed will be the favourite against anyone save faker. Though we haven't seen an inform Fed with his improved BH against faker. I think Halle will be a good indication of Fed's form on grass.

faker is the favourite now that the slam streak is off his back and he'll be hungry again to win slams. Obviously the draw will be crucial though I expect dull to get a cake draw as usual with weaponless players in the first week.

 

[Moxie]

I think Fed will be the favourite against anyone save faker. Though we haven't seen an inform Fed with his improved BH against faker. I think Halle will be a good indication of Fed's form on grass.

faker is the favourite now that the slam streak is off his back and he'll be hungry again to win slams. Obviously the draw will be crucial though I expect dull to get a cake draw as usual with weaponless players in the first week.

I'm sure you're right about the bolded above. The draw is rigged to get Nadal into the 2nd week. That's why they changed the grass, too. Bunch of corrupt tossers at Wimbledon...I don't even know how it stays a Major, with such garbage.