Early RG Talk

[GameSetAndMath]

RG starts in exactly three months from today (on 23rd May) if everything goes as per plan. Due to delayed AO, we have one month less time in between. So, we might as well start talking about it right now.

Just took a quick look at current odds. Here you go.

1. Ralph 1 (50%)
2. Nole 3 (25%)
3. Thiem 22/5 (18.5%)
4. Rest of the field combined (6.5%)

I would say the odds are quite reasonable.

Not sure how Spain is currently doing w.r.t. Covid. Does anyone know whether we can reasonably expect RG to happen as per the posted schedule?

 

[Moxie]

Thanks for the thread! But the French Open will happen in France, not Spain. Given that we have had 3 Majors during the pandemic, and RG will the the first to repeat, I have to think they can pull it off in their slot. There is a lot of precedent for options. (Fans/no fans; tune-ups locally or not.) I'm curious about the run-up to RG, and maybe this is where you were thinking Spain, because Madrid and Barcelona both feature. Guy Forget has left open the option to move it again this year, but he has said they would do it with more consultation than last year. (Ahem.) France's covid cases are trending down, and they are vaccinating.

As to odds, they do seem right. Given the obstacles for Nadal, and the way he blew past them, including Djokovic in the final, it's hard to think of who would cap him this year, if he's healthy.

 

[Front242]

Thanks for the thread! But the French Open will happen in France, not Spain. Given that we have had 3 Majors during the pandemic, and RG will the the first to repeat, I have to think they can pull it off in their slot. There is a lot of precedent for options. (Fans/no fans; tune-ups locally or not.) I'm curious about the run-up to RG, and maybe this is where you were thinking Spain, because Madrid and Barcelona both feature. Guy Forget has left open the option to move it again this year, but he has said they would do it with more consultation than last year. (Ahem.) France's covid cases are trending down, and they are vaccinating.

As to odds, they do seem right. Given the obstacles for Nadal, and the way he blew past them, including Djokovic in the final, it's hard to think of who would cap him this year, if he's healthy.

Different year, different final. Thiem will be the favourite against Djokovic again in any case if that's the path for either to the final. Maybe RoboRoger comes back with 2 bionic legs like ED209.

Please put down your racquet, you have 20 seconds to comply

 

[AnonymousFan]

Will be shocked if Nadal doesn't win. I wonder if Wimbledon and Olympics will happen?

 

[Front242]

The UK are going well with their vaccinations but only single doses done for now for the most part and the jury's still out on whether they truly even work so who knows. Imagine though Wimbledon will go ahead but the Olympics would be a more tricky issue than a sport where your opponent is very far away from you. Compare that to eg groups of sweaty runners bunched together. My gut feeling is the Olympics is a no go when you think of all the events with people sandwiched together. Rowing, all running events, boxing. Nah, not gonna happen imo.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I agree. Most likely they would need to postpone the Olympics again.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Given that Fed and Ralph are tied at 20, it would be nice if they face each other in the finals at RG (or at Wimby, if they happen to be still tied going in to Wimby) so that the winner gets to 21 by beating the other person directly. It would be even nicer if Fed beats Ralph this way.

 

[shawnbm]

I question if Federer will play the clay court season. He will test his knee on hard courts soon and then will determine if clay is risky. Rafa will bag 21 me thinks.

 

[Moxie]

Given that Fed and Ralph are tied at 20, it would be nice if they face each other in the finals at RG (or at Wimby, if they happen to be still tied going in to Wimby) so that the winner gets to 21 by beating the other person directly. It would be even nicer if Fed beats Ralph this way.

Fascinating idea, and yes, it would be amazing if they could contest it directly. Since we're playing fantasy tennis, what if Rafa won RG, Roger Wimbledon, and they could finally play at the USO for who wins #22? One could only imagine what the black market price for tickets would be for that!

 

[tennisville]

Given that Fed and Ralph are tied at 20, it would be nice if they face each other in the finals at RG (or at Wimby, if they happen to be still tied going in to Wimby) so that the winner gets to 21 by beating the other person directly. It would be even nicer if Fed beats Ralph this way.

I personally do not want to see Nadal walking over Federer again at Roland Garros. Prefer to see a Theim/Nadal final right now

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Theim has only taken one set off Rafa in a final at RG that was 2 years ago.

 

[tennisville]

Theim has only taken one set off Rafa in a final at RG that was 2 years ago.

I know but he becomes mature every year and Nadal becomes older. Hoping for a great final this year

Also has a Major under his belt removing that pressure

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I know but he becomes mature every year and Nadal becomes older. Hoping for a great final this year

Also has a Major under his belt removing that pressure

Oh please Theim was lucky to win the USO,Sasha if he had kept his brain should have beaten him in 3 sets.
Theim's form at this year's AO left a lot to be desired.

 

[Front242]

Oh please Theim was lucky to win the USO,Sasha if he had kept his brain should have beaten him in 3 sets.
Theim's form at this year's AO left a lot to be desired.

Exactly. I see that win as a fluke as many do. Zverev is a terrible choker. Thiem will win clay titles in best of 3 but that's it imo.

 

[Jelenafan]

Oh please Theim was lucky to win the USO,Sasha if he had kept his brain should have beaten him in 3 sets.
Theim's form at this year's AO left a lot to be desired.

Theim was bashed as a claycourt specialist until a couple of years ago, so I'm not too bummed about his AO results. He tends to overplay due to horrible scheduling for one, and the whole run up to the AO was bizarre, what with the quarantining, etc.

I do think last fall's RG was an understandable aberration for Theim. He had just won the USO, was mentally exhausted and had little clay court prep.

The "normal" clay court season has a runup of 6-8 weeks of tournament play before Roland Garos. Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, etc. IF that schedule can stick this year, it bodes well for Theim in that he can play into his claycourt form, because I still think that is his best surface. Even Novak I would pit 50/50 in his chances with Theim at RG, Theim beat him in 5 in the 2019 SF and in fact has beaten him in best of 5 the last 2 times they met in Paris.

However the elephant in the room is that a normal red clay schedule one would benefit Nadal most of all.

It will be interesting if Medvedev reaches #2 by Roland Garos. Nadal's seeding should be irrelevant for his chances , but it become a whole lot of relevant per whose side of the draw Nadal lands on; Novak, Theim or Medvedev. I'm still not convinced Medvedev on red clay plays up to his seeding.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Theim was bashed as a claycourt specialist until a couple of years ago, so I'm not too bummed about his AO results. He tends to overplay due to horrible scheduling for one, and the whole run up to the AO was bizarre, what with the quarantining, etc.

I do think last fall's RG was an understandable aberration for Theim. He had just won the USO, was mentally exhausted and had little clay court prep.

The "normal" clay court season has a runup of 6-8 weeks of tournament play before Roland Garos. Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, etc. IF that schedule can stick this year, it bodes well for Theim in that he can play into his claycourt form, because I still think that is his best surface. Even Novak I would pit 50/50 in his chances with Theim at RG, Theim beat him in 5 in the 2019 SF and in fact has beaten him in best of 5 the last 2 times they met in Paris.

However the elephant in the room is that a normal red clay schedule one would benefit Nadal most of all.

It will be interesting if Medvedev reaches #2 by Roland Garos. Nadal's seeding should be irrelevant for his chances , but it become a whole lot of relevant per whose side of the draw Nadal lands on; Novak, Theim or Medvedev. I'm still not convinced Medvedev on red clay plays up to his seeding.

I did read Medvedev's ambition for RG in 2021 is to not get out in round 1? Medvedev does have a game for clay.though lets see if he can win any lead up titles this year on clay,I am still not convinced it is a surface that suits him
I have always maintained that Theim over plays tournaments full stop.Clay is the most physical demanding surface,he really needs to look at his schedule going forward.Granted last year there was little time between USO and RG.His form at the AO recently was below par.

 

[tennisville]

Oh please Theim was lucky to win the USO,Sasha if he had kept his brain should have beaten him in 3 sets.
Theim's form at this year's AO left a lot to be desired.

Thiem won the match playing his D level tennis which is super impressive. That is something that Nadal, Federer have not done in their entire careers

The AO is just 1 major, the clay is his favorite surface and he doesnt have the pressure of winning his first now

Also Zverev never had any chance once Thiem first serve percentage improved from 35% to 74% in sets 3 and 4. Zvererv choked in set 5 but that was after Thiem choked first, so it cancels out really

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Thiem won the match playing his D level tennis which is super impressive. That is something that Nadal, Federer have not done in their entire careers

The AO is just 1 major, the clay is his favorite surface and he doesnt have the pressure of winning his first now

Also Zverev never had any chance once Thiem first serve percentage improved from 35% to 74% in sets 3 and 4. Zvererv choked in set 5 It Doesbut that was after Thiem choked first, so it cancels out reall

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Please I think we were watching different matches at the USO....Theim was not impressive at all during the USO,even in the final.
He was lucky to win the USO,Sasha had CHP he is a total headcase.,against another player Theim would have Lost.It was one of the worst GS final matches I have watched., my husband walked out and said he could not watch anymore of 'this mess',The womens final at the USO was far more competitive.I know you cannot compare mens tennis to womens,still..............
Theim has always over played his schedule.Clay is the most physical surface you can play period..
I have seen both Rafa and Roger win playing sub par tennis,both below their best.??????
Your dislike of Rafa and Roger is really showing through.End of conversation.

 

[tennisville]

Please I think we were watching different matches at the USO....Theim was not impressive at all during the USO,even in the final.
He was lucky to win the USO,Sasha had CHP he is a total headcase.,against another player Theim would have Lost.It was one of the worst GS final matches I have watched., my husband walked out and said he could not watch anymore of 'this mess',The womens final at the USO was far more competitive.I know you cannot compare mens tennis to womens,still..............
Theim has always over played his schedule.Clay is the most physical surface you can play period..
I have seen both Rafa and Roger win playing sub par tennis,both below their best.??????
Your dislike of Rafa and Roger is really showing through.End of conversation.

I never said the match was a classic. I specifically said that Thiem played his D level tennis and still won. I agree that the womens final was much higher quality, thats not even up for debate.

Thiem has overscheduled in the past but I doubt he will do it this year. I really don't expect him to play in Lyon the week before RG this time.

I also said Rafa and Roger have never played as bad as Thiem did in a grand slam final and still win it, that is also a fact not up for debate since it never happened. That has nothing to do with my dislike