2024 Predictions and Questions (and 2023 impressions/wrap-up)

[El Dude]

Here's the 2023 Edition, if you're curious.

I'd like to add to this thread a 2023 impressions/wrap-up component - what were some surprises? Breakthroughs? Disappointments? Etc.

I'll post mine in a reply.

 

[shawnbm]

Novak Djokovic impressed far beyond what I thought he would, even though he has done this time and time again. I felt that Carlos was going to take ahold of this year and when he prevailed in London after nerves admittedly got to him in Paris, I though the worm had turned and he would likely win in New York and end the year #1. Nole put the dampener on that, though, and emphatically. This is some ways his greatest year in terms of playing in fewer (but bigger) events and winning all but one. Once again, he came very close to winning the calendar year slam. I did NOT foresee Novak doing what he did this year. Amazing.

Alcaraz and Sinner were quite impressive whilst our young greek demi-god slid further and further away from attaining what some thought he might a couple years ago. Carlos and Jannik have good upside, the Spaniard more so. I see him winning for a number of years and winning big ones. In a major he has shown he can go toe-to-toe with the great Serbian Slayer--and win. Time is on his side, barring injuries. Sinner will be there too and will compete.

 

[shawnbm]

But, I see Novak still holding steady and if he wins Down Under for the 11th time, Katie bar the door!

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Djokovic to win the golden grand slam and not lose a match!

( this is a jinx post )

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Ben Shelton will be Novak's biggest challenger at the Australian Open.

 

[shawnbm]

^ bold prediction, but I have a hard time seeing it. In fact, as good as Ben is and as much as I enjoy watching him play, Novak might destroy the young lad rather clinically.

 

[Moxie]

I definitely think that Novak will arrive in Australia loaded for bear. Given what's on offer, it will be hard to take him down, but the young guns are making strides. Zverev seems to act like he's got more to say, as does Medvedev. As @shawnbm says above, I think Tsitsipas is losing ground. I have him on my "sell" list.

I do think Alcaraz will find his footing again, and be a major factor in the year. Likewise Sinner. I hope that Rune features, but I still think he'll take another year to mature. I'm not convinced that Becker is a good choice to coach him, TBH.

I think Kyrgios will come back to make some noise. Who knows what that "noise" will be?

Rafa will come back, but I fear it will be the final lap. The body is battered. He's lasted years longer than even HE thought he would. But he should never be counted out at Roland Garros. I hold out hope. With the Olympics to be played in Paris this year, I think he'll plan to play. Novak will also have that one in his sights.

 

[tented]

I definitely think that Novak will arrive in Australia loaded for bear. Given what's on offer, it will be hard to take him down, but the young guns are making strides. Zverev seems to act like he's got more to say, as does Medvedev. As @shawnbm says above, I think Tsitsipas is losing ground. I have him on my "sell" list.

Everyone but Alcaraz and Sinner are on my sell list. Ok, hold for Rune. But the others — Zverev (sold years ago), Tsitsipas (is Tsitsipas), Rublev (a steady-ish Top 10 presence, but not a big event winner), Ruud (say no more …), and even Medvedev (it’s clear his one major win was when Novak was so distracted by the CYGS he couldn’t win even one set) — sell.

Rafa will come back, but I fear it will be the final lap. The body is battered. He's lasted years longer than even HE thought he would. But he should never be counted out at Roland Garros. I hold out hope. With the Olympics to be played in Paris this year, I think he'll plan to play. Novak will also have that one in his sights.

I hope Rafa can have a nice farewell tour, because 2024 really will be it. If he can qualify for the Olympics that would be an apt time/place to take a final bow: after the clay court season, yet still at Roland Garros.

 

[Moxie]

Everyone but Alcaraz and Sinner are on my sell list. Ok, hold for Rune. But the others — Zverev (sold years ago), Tsitsipas (is Tsitsipas), Rublev (a steady-ish Top 10 presence, but not a big event winner), Ruud (say no more …), and even Medvedev (it’s clear his one major win was when Novak was so distracted by the CYGS he couldn’t win even one set) — sell.

Wow! You are tough, though it's hard to disagree. I'm definitely selling on Ruud, too. Likewise Rublev....Am I wrong to hold out hope that Medvedev has another Slam in him? Maybe.

As to the others on offer, I have to address @PhiEaglesfan712's man Shelton. I think he has potential, but I still think 2024 will be a growing year for him. FAA better make this a big year for himself, or he's going the way of the lost generation. I think Fils will feature, but he's a "hold," not a "buy."

I hope Rafa can have a nice farewell tour, because 2024 really will be it. If he can qualify for the Olympics that would be an apt time/place to take a final bow: after the clay court season, yet still at Roland Garros.

It breaks my heart, but I do think this is the end.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

My 2023 wrap-up is: Eww

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

To be honest, if 2024 wasn't an Olympic year, Rafa probably would have called it a career. (I was mildly surprised that Rafa didn't call it a career after the 2021 French Open and missed the Olympics. Man, that performance at the Citi Open was ugly. Almost like his post-2022 US Open performances.)

I'm thinking that Rafa wants just one more crack at the Olympics at a close to healthy condition. He hasn't been healthy for an Olympic since winning the singles gold in 2008. Even in 2016, when he participated, he got injured during the French Open and missed Wimbledon.

Win or lose at the Olympics, I feel that will be his final tournament. This feels like Steffi Graf's 1999 season. You just knew that was going to be it. I just hope Rafa's final season has that final blaze of glory.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I'm gonna wait until Rafa gets back on the court...I hope he plays some challengers before rejoining the ATP 250 and 500 levels

 

[Kieran]

Difficult to say. I think last year a few of us over-predicted for Carlos, thinking he might buck the norms for precocious teens and continue obliviously on an upward arc through the next few years. That was my hope but he reached the speed bumps and had to go slower. He rests now off-season and the big question is when he picks up speed again, and not if he does.

Or, to what extent he will, because the downside is possible too, which is that he loses confidence a while and with that, he makes compromises in his game and loses that irresistible sparkle that can dazzle everybody.

I’ll go with him being ready because I think the break from the grind will give him distance from his relatively poor results since Wimbledon.

Djoker will pace himself well again, and if 2024 is as uneventful as this year in terms of competition, he’ll do very well. I notice he’s said he wants to win all 4 slams next season. He’s right to say this, for 2 reasons: it terrifies the tremulous, and also he knows it’s been made possible for him over the last few years, with the decline and absence of Fedal.

He’d never have dared to say this ten years ago.

Sinner and Rune had relative breakthroughs last year, and suffered both backlash and redemptions of sorts this year. Next year they’re not unknown, and nor are they kids. Sinner had his greenhorn moment in Turin, where nothing was expected and in the end he lived down to that, without loss of credibility, but next year more is expected.

I don’t expect either of these players to explode, but to move incrementally. That might not be good enough. The choice is between a brave Carlos leap, or noble flops where they get credit for losing, and so form bad habits. We all remember Zverev in 2017 giving Rafa a fright in Australia. Getting credit for this kind of match is satisfaction enough for some players.

Medvedev is back on the cusp - again. Losing ground but capable of more. Far from his world number 1 ranking days, when he won the USO, and watching with a haunted look in his eyes players like Sinner dispatch him in Turin. He seems incapable of stringing enough big wins together in a row. He had his USO final in the semi final, but in the final itself he was perfunctory, getting away with a nondescript performance which wasn’t questioned too deeply.

I think he’s fading, but he has a chance in Australia to reboot.

SissyZver are beyond circling the drain: they’ve gone down the glug hole with barely a gargling sound.

I’m interested in whether a youngster will blaze a trail. It’s not impossible but it is impossible to predict. The nature of it is that they surprise, and keep on surprising until they hold the cup. I’d love to see it but it’s hard to know where or when it might happen. Carlos spoiled us, in that regard.

Young Ralph is now Old Ralph. Dignified and impeccable. As great a giant as we’ll ever see. He’ll try and hopefully he’ll thrill. Good health and good luck for him would be the best I’d hope for in ‘24…

 

[El Dude]

Like others, Novak's performance this year was a bit surprising. I didn't think he was done, but I didn't expect him to win four of the five biggest titles or reach four Slam finals again. It is truly awe-inspiring, and while some like to focus on the fact that he's vulturing titles in a field that doesn't include Fedal, peak Murray or Stanimal, to me the overwhelming feeling is awe at him doing this at age 36 (which is the same age Roger was in his last great year, in 2017).

Other impressions...obviously Sinner taking it up a notch. Also, the top of the rankings seems to have only gotten younger, with a couple 20-year olds in the top 10 and everyone else (other than Novak) age 27 or younger. Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils are the two (sort of) new names that are now relevant.

I sort of dislike the notion that if a player is unlikely to win a Slam, then it is time to "sell" on them. I get that Slams are the big kahuna, but Masters are still strongly competitive, and I like the fact that the field has opened up a bit so we have guys like Hurkacz and Rublev winning Masters (not to mention Norrie, Coric, etc).

As for 2024, it is so hard to make predictions because I could see any number of things occurring. But there are things I'm looking for, as well as varying degrees of "Slam title likelihood." Right now I see the categories as...

Slam favorites: Djokovic, Alcaraz
Slam contenders: Rafa (RG only), Medvedev, Sinner
Slam darkhorses: Rublev, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Rune, Shelton, Auger-Aliassime (I mean, maybe?), Hurkacz (Wimbledon)

As always, I'll be watching young players and seeing how they develop. For me one of the most exciting things to see is a new young guy breaking through to another level, so I'll be watching players like Sinner, Shelton, Auger-Aliassime, Fils, and even some of the guys who seemed to have stalled out a bit like Korda, Musetti, and Fokina, to see whether they can take another step forward.

 

[nehmeth]

I guess for me, it’s not so much who will be challenging for world dominance. Rune, Sinner and Alcaraz are my choices to continue to battle Novak.

For my picks next year, I really like Draper and Humbert. Two young gents that, if they remain healthy, have top ten potential. Ugo has grown in confidence this year. Draper needs more work in the ”belief” department. Good games. Good competitors. Fun to watch them on court.

 

[Kieran]

I sort of dislike the notion that if a player is unlikely to win a Slam, then it is time to "sell" on them. I get that Slams are the big kahuna, but Masters are still strongly competitive, and I like the fact that the field has opened up a bit so we have guys like Hurkacz and Rublev winning Masters (not to mention Norrie, Coric, etc).

I think the reasons why we focus on slams here are manifold. Firstly, they’re the ultimate proof that a player has upgraded. Secondly, MS events are either a gateway to better things, or else a proof of player limitations (witness the names you mentioned above), and thirdly, we’ve gone through 30 years of the most predatory greats chasing slams as their priority.

They’re not the be all and end all, but if we’re making predictions for next year they’re a more substantial and fixed point to focus on than MS events…

 

[El Dude]

A bit more. I don't expect a big leap forward for Alcaraz, but more of a plateau ala Sampras 1990-92 or Rafa 2005-07. 2024 would be that third year, with 2025 being more of a leap forward (if it happens).

I expect Sinner to continue to improve and be a serious Slam contender and a serious threat at big titles in general. But the improvement might be only small in terms of outward gains (titles), and we might see more of a consolidation where he wins more non-Slam titles, even a couple Masters, but doesn't quite get over the Slam title hump. But he's definitely a contender.

I'm not selling on Medvedev. To me he remains a serious threat and actually had a really good year.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

A bit more. I don't expect a big leap forward for Alcaraz, but more of a plateau ala Sampras 1990-92 or Rafa 2005-07. 2024 would be that third year, with 2025 being more of a leap forward (if it happens).

I expect Sinner to continue to improve and be a serious Slam contender and a serious threat at big titles in general. But the improvement might be only small in terms of outward gains (titles), and we might see more of a consolidation where he wins more non-Slam titles, even a couple Masters, but doesn't quite get over the Slam title hump. But he's definitely a contender.

I'm not selling on Medvedev. To me he remains a serious threat and actually had a really good year.

What are your thoughts on Zverev? for 2024, considering his ankle injury, coming back this year he finished in the Top 10,

 

[the AntiPusher]

In the NFL...a new QB can be dominant for one season until the league gets " tape" on him and the NEXT season his stats come back to others usually. I think the ATP coaches are going to have the tape on Ben Shelton and I think the pure ball strikers will rise back to the top. I don't see players like Tiafoe and Fritz hanging around the top ten anymore. One of the lost Gen( FAA, Pegasus, Zverev or Medvedev) is going to figure it out how to play against Novak. I think Sinner and Carlos are the best bet to make the last weekend of the majors. Otherwise, Novak will win 3 of the 4 slams again.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

In the NFL...a new QB can be dominant for one season until the league gets " tape" on him and the NEXT season his stats come back to others usually. I think the ATP coaches are going to have the tape on Ben Shelton and I think the pure ball strikers will rise back to the top. I don't see players like Tiafoe and Fritz hanging around the top ten anymore. One of the lost Gen( FAA, Pegasus, Zverev or Medvedev) is going to figure it out how to play against Novak. I think Sinner and Carlos are the best bet to make the last weekend of the majors. Otherwise, Novak will win 3 of the 4 slams again.

I am interested to see how the coaching partnership of Becker with Rune in 2024,
The test for Ben Shelton to me, starts at the AO in 2024, can he defend his QF points from 2023.
Novak is a 'lock in' for the title at the AO in 2024, who would really bet against him.