Mine are less predictions, and more considerations around certain questions. With Roger Federer retiring, it seems we are truly coming to the end of an era - a mythological Shifting of the Ages. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal still have gas left in their respective tanks, but how much remains to be seen. So that would be my first big question:
What can we expect from Novak and Rafa?
Despite the emergence of Carlos Alcaraz as the heir apparent, a healthy and not-yet-massively-aged Novak and Rafa will still determine the shape of the 2023 season. Meaning, as much as I think Alcaraz is legit, I don't think he is quite yet "the guy to beat" - that Novak and Rafa still hold that down. I mean, they won 3 of 4 Slams last year, and while their dominance is eroding on the Masters tour, they're still the two best players on tour...if healthy.
How will Alcaraz handle being #1?
I think we can all be fairly confident that Alcaraz is legit and the question is not whether he'll be great, but how great; that is, where along the "Kuerten to Nadal" spectrum of greatness he'll end up in...and that won't be answered in 2023. I see his big task for 2023 being consolidation. And by that, I don't mean staying at #1, but staying in the top 3 or so, winning big titles, and going deep in Slams. We can look to Pete Sampras as an example of a dominant #1 who took a bit of time to find his peak level, with his first Slam title the 1990 US Open (at age 19, Alcaraz's age) and his second Slam title not coming until almost three years later at the 1993 Wimbledon, when he was almost 22. I'm not suggesting that Alcaraz will have that sort of delay winning his second Slam, but chances are that he won't hold onto #1 all year, or even for most of the year, and if and when he does fall from #1 and/or not pile on more Slam titles, we shouldn't be worried or surprised. His ranking, while earned, was at least partially the result of the context of the modern tour, perhaps most especially Novak's barring from the AO and not getting Wimbledon points.
Carlos reached #1 at a younger age than anyone has in the Open Era. Others have reached greatness at such a young age--most recently Rafa--but none have had to bear the burden of being King of the Hill. In fact, for an example of consolidation we can look at Rafa's early career: After his rise in 2005, the next two years were really about consolidation as the King of Clay, but the Prince of Everything Else. It wasn't until 2008 that he made his push to the top spot and supplanted the reigning King, Roger Federer.
So my question is also my prediction: the next year or two will be about consolidation for Alcaraz. This isn't the beginning of his reign as the singular best player on tour, but his arrival as the next surefire all-time great, and a preview of the decade to come. I do think he projects as the best player of the next decade; it isn't a certainty, but he is the most likely candidate. But if and when he becomes the clear top dog on tour, it will likely take another couple years. Which brings me to....
What can we expect from Jannik Sinner, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Holger Rune?
Along with Alcaraz, these are the top "Millennial Gen" players (born 1999-2003) - with apologies to Denis Shapovalov, Lorenzo Musetti, Sebastian Korda, Jenson Brooksby and one or two others...all of whom have a place in the top 20 (even top 10) going forward, but are a step down, in my opinion.
Sinner was a guy that I pegged for a Masters in 2022, with FAA a darkhorse. But both did improve - Sinner reached three Slam QFs, but didn't really take that step forward. It seems imminent, however. FAA's Slam performance dropped a bit, but his performance everywhere else improved, and now he plays for the title in Basel which, if he wins, will be his third title of the year. We've seen a high, elite level of performance; what remains is for him to be more consistent, and when it matters most.
Holger Rune might be the Millennial that we will learn to love to hate, with hints of a Tsitsipas-esque attitude. But he's been charging up the rankings, from ending 2021 at #103 to #18 in the live rankings as of today. That sort of jump is exactly what you want to see from a future elite, as far as historical precedents are concerned. While he's a bit behind Sinner and FAA, he's closing the gap rather quickly.
Whither Next Gen?
Let us not forget that less than a year ago, Daniil Medvedev looked like the guy who might supplant Novak and Rafa, and even reached #1 earlier this year. But after a crushing defeat at the AO by Rafa, he hasn't looked the same this year. He's still just 26, however, and there's no reason to think he can't at least remain a top 5 guy and Slam contender for several years to come.
Which brings me to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev, the latter of whom was the first Next Genner to win a big title, all the way back in 2017. Since then, Sascha has won a total of 8 big titles, the same as Michael Chang, Guillermo Vilas, and Arthur Ashe, and just one behind Gustavo Kuerten, Thomas Muster, and Jim Courier. Yet still no Slam. It seems all but certain that he'll become just the 18th player to win 10+ big titles in the Open Era, and it is hard to imagine that a player with that sort of resume doesn't win at least one Slam, if not two or three. Could 2023 be Sascha's year?
Filling out the "Biggish Three" of Next Gen (assuming we count Dominic Thiem as Lost rather Next Gen) is Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has followed a similar career arc as Zverev, just a couple years behind and with fewer big titles. But he remains a perennial candidate to break through and is too young (24) to write off as a future Slam winner, and certainly too soon to write Zverev and Tsitsipas off as the Tsonga and Berdych of the current era. They're both already far more accomplished, in terms of big titles, with Tsitsipas alone having the same total as Tsonga and Berdych combined (3).
Other Next Genners who are candidates for their first big title are Andrey Rublev, Matteo Berretini, and Frances Tiafoe. Rublev and Berretini seem overdue, and were candidates going into 2022 - and even 2021. Oh, and Casper Ruud - who, born at the end of 1998 - is cuspish for Next/Millennial Gens. And Next Genners who hope to re-capture or continue their success are Hubert Hurkacz, Taylor Fritz, Karen Khachanov, and Cameron Norrie - all of whom have one Masters to their name.
Darkhorse Players
Here I will mention Nick Kyrgios and Dominic Thiem, the former perhaps the true Next Genner and the latter on the cusp of Lost and Next Gens. Can Thiem recapture his prior success? Can Kyrgios build upon his performance of 2022 and finally fulfill his potential as more than just a dangerous floater, and an actual big title--even Slam--threat?
And Lost Gen?
It really looks definitive that we'll see no Slam winners among players born in 1989-92, the Lost Gen, with Dominic Thiem (b. 1993) the first in a five-year span, since Cilic and Del Potro (b. 1988). In fact, of players born in the 1989-95 range, only Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem, and Jack Sock won any big titles, and only Thiem a Slam.
Anyhow, the question is whether any of these guys will come back in any form or fashion. Not really a consequential question, but something to consider. Grigor is still plugging along in the top 40, but hasn't won a title since 2017. Who knows if Kei will come back from his hip surgery...and he's turning 33 shortly. Poor Milos snuck by Roger at the 2016 WImbledon, but got beat by Andy in the final. I just don't see a "comeback" from any of these guys. In the end, this is always going to be the generation that tennis history skipped over.
