Nitto ATP Finals 2024, Turin, Italy

[MargaretMcAleer]

Sinner is the man of the year, a great season. I still think Alcaraz is the better player but he scheduled poorly and suffered for it. Sinner was wise, and brilliant…

I have always said Carlos has a 'higher ceiling' when he needs it, than Jannik, he won the channel slam this year which is the hardest thing to win in tennis, my opinion, though Jannik is a much steadier player and dosent have the dips in matches that Carlos has at times, I love watching Carlos play.Both players shared the GS titles this year, well done to both players.
Also well done to Fritz for making the final, he now has a career best of No 4 ranking!

 

[Fiero425]

Yep - though with the clarification that by "best" I mean most accomplished in terms of career resume, not necessarily peak level. That's more subjective, and I think you'd have to consider guys like Mecir, Rios, Nalbandian, etc. But Zverev's resume is better than any other non-Slam winner, and better than quite a number of 1-3 Slam winners.

By far Sascha's been more successful than any other Non-Slam winner, but that isn't saying a lot! Players like Johan Kriek & Thomas Johansson have Aussie titles! They didn't do much more than help fill a men's tennis draw otherwise! OTTH, the only thing notable besides Johan's looks was 1980 SF at the USO vs Borg! Kriek was up 2 sets to luv, but allowed Bjorn to run him over 1,1, & 1 to take it in 5! I was thinking it a mental block w/ the Big 3 when Zverev was on a roll & beating down his opposition only to squander big leads making life harder for himself! You can say that about a lots, but players like Novak, Rafa, & Roger still win! I expected a lot more out of Sascha due to his serve alone! W/ his height, he should be obliterating lower ranked players! He's done more than Del Po, but he truly was part of the Big 5 but for health issues! He had the game to destroy any of the Top 4's at the time! I never saw the '09 USO SF where he took out Rafa 2,2, 2, but that's not the only time he's embarrassed a top player in a major! Sascha will still outperform JCDP, just not w/ a major unless he sneaks one in his waning years like an Andres Gomez at 1990 French Open final over Agassi!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Sinner becomes the 3rd man in history to win the AO USO and ATP Finals in a single season
Federer, Djokovic and Sinner.........Legendary company!, though he struggles to open a champagne bottle with a cork in it
Jannik Sinner's dad reminds me of Gordon Ramsey, same hair style and both chefs!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

This year ATP Finals in Turin attracted a record breaking on - site audience of more than 183,000 with 15 session sold out across the 8 days!

 

[Moxie]

As a stats person that I am, Zverev fascinates me because he hasn't slipped off & declined like his fellow ( & younger) crown prince Tsitsipas yet still can’t seem to reach the brass ring of a Grand Slam title.

IIRC El Dude said he’s the probably the best player in the Open Era not to win a Grand Slam (so far)

Some notes:

2 Grand Slam finals (losing both after leading 2-0 & 2-1 in sets)
Top 10 YE ranking 7 out of last 8 years
YE ranking top 4 - 4 years
Olympic Gold Medal
ATP YE champ - 2 years
12 Masters finals, 7 Masters titles

Seriously those are some impressive numbers. Now I will never be a Zverev fan, he strikes me as a petulant entitled A-hole, but as a numbers person it’s an interesting journey to watch if he collects more hardware but not a Grand Slam.

Good write-up on Zverev. Note that his big titles are all in Best of 3. Anyway, I bolded two things above, because I think they're related. That he blew leads in each of his 2 GS finals, and that he's a "petulant, entitled A-hole," which I agree with. And I think it's his key problem. While I'll give him credit for seemingly having rededicated himself to playing some seriously good tennis, unlike Tsitsipas, he seems very much to believe that he deserves a Major, which is different than having the strength of character to really fight for it.

I thought Margaret's post above as to his woeful H2H v. Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Fritz is telling in this regard, too. He's got a leading one over Sinner and Alcaraz. Does he only get up for bigger matches? (Remind anyone of Kyrgios?) Or, does he look ahead too soon?

He doesn't have the talent of a Big 4, nor the mentality, but he's young enough, in a time when they're all but gone. Can he yet win a Major? I think he's still got something to change in his mindset to make that happen.

 

[El Dude]

By far Sascha's been more successful than any other Non-Slam winner, but that isn't saying a lot! Players like Johan Kriek & Thomas Johansson have Aussie titles! They didn't do much more than help fill a men's tennis draw otherwise! OTTH, the only thing notable besides Johan's looks was 1980 SF at the USO vs Borg! Kriek was up 2 sets to luv, but allowed Bjorn to run him over 1,1, & 1 to take it in 5! I was thinking it a mental block w/ the Big 3 when Zverev was on a roll & beating down his opposition only to squander big leads making life harder for himself! You can say that about a lots, but players like Novak, Rafa, & Roger still win! I expected a lot more out of Sascha due to his serve alone! W/ his height, he should be obliterating lower ranked players! He's done more than Del Po, but he truly was part of the Big 5 but for health issues! He had the game to destroy any of the Top 4's at the time! I never saw the '09 USO SF where he took out Rafa 2,2, 2, but that's not the only time he's embarrassed a top player in a major! Sascha will still outperform JCDP, just not w/ a major unless he sneaks one in his waning years like an Andres Gomez at 1990 French Open final over Agassi!

It is really too bad that we never got to see what a healthy JMDP career would have been like. I mean, we saw him healthy at times - and he was a bonafide top 5 guy, though I wonder if his brilliance was limited after 2009 due to recurrent injuries. I don't think he would have been quite there with the Bigger Three, but he might have given Andy Murray a run for his money as #4 of that era.

Sascha's career isn't over, but with the baton being passed to Sincaraz, he's going to have to earn it. But one thing that's different now than during the Big Four Era, is that there are only two "super-elite" players. Meaning, there's a greater chance for a path to open at a Slam for other players than there was when it was Roger, Rafa, Novak, and Andy (not to mention Stan, but he kind of filled in the gaps in the years that Roger was aging and Rafa struggling).

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Good write-up on Zverev. Note that his big titles are all in Best of 3. Anyway, I bolded two things above, because I think they're related. That he blew leads in each of his 2 GS finals, and that he's a "petulant, entitled A-hole," which I agree with. And I think it's his key problem. While I'll give him credit for seemingly having rededicated himself to playing some seriously good tennis, unlike Tsitsipas, he seems very much to believe that he deserves a Major, which is different than having the strength of character to really fight for it.

I thought Margaret's post above as to his woeful H2H v. Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Fritz is telling in this regard, too. He's got a leading one over Sinner and Alcaraz. Does he only get up for bigger matches? (Remind anyone of Kyrgios?) Or, does he look ahead too soon?

He doesn't have the talent of a Big 4, nor the mentality, but he's young enough, in a time when they're all but gone. Can he yet win a Major? I think he's still got something to change in his mindset to make that happen.

Good post,
The one thing that stood out for me when Sasha played Alcaraz at RG this year, he became ' too passive' when he had the momentum, waiting for Carlos to make a mistake, and lost which I felt in ways was his own doing.
Of course in the USO against Dom when he had a couple of Championship points 'that was all mental' and quite frankly a sad way to end a final which he should have won in straight sets.
Mentally to me he hasnt got what it takes to win a best of 5, unless he proves me otherwise, yes he can win titles in the best of 3 which he has done so far in his career. Zverev needs to shake off this 'self entitled' mentality, something so far he hasnt done, or maybe never will

 

[Moxie]

It is really too bad that we never got to see what a healthy JMDP career would have been like. I mean, we saw him healthy at times - and he was a bonafide top 5 guy, though I wonder if his brilliance was limited after 2009 due to recurrent injuries. I don't think he would have been quite there with the Bigger Three, but he might have given Andy Murray a run for his money as #4 of that era.

I don't know if JMDP was "brilliant," but his best years WERE spoiled by injury. And we did consider him "The 5th Beatle," at the time, which was prime Big 3/4. Like Zverev, one of his "talents" was that he was tall, and had a big serve. And he had a monster FH. Zverev's impressive weapon is his bh.

Sascha's career isn't over, but with the baton being passed to Sincaraz, he's going to have to earn it. But one thing that's different now than during the Big Four Era, is that there are only two "super-elite" players. Meaning, there's a greater chance for a path to open at a Slam for other players than there was when it was Roger, Rafa, Novak, and Andy (not to mention Stan, but he kind of filled in the gaps in the years that Roger was aging and Rafa struggling).

Agreed that he's likely to have more opportunity, but it's rather pathetic that we still figure it's going to take better players getting taken out. Personally, I can't get over him blowing the first best chance in forever, when he was 2 sets to love up on Thiem in the final of the USO in 2020. To me, that is the mark of the man, and he hasn't really proven himself different.

 

[mrzz]

, but he might have given Andy Murray a run for his money as #4 of that era.

For sure he would have left Murray behind. He was gunning for #1 right after the 2009 season. What he was showing in court backed that up.

Another player who would have got right up there was Soderling. Up to the mono he was playing at a very high level, and was already #4.

As good as Murray was (I don't like the guy, but I know how good and consistent he was), the top 2 threats to his almost perennial #4 spot were stopped by injury/disease (by the way, I don't think both would have stopped there).

 

[Moxie]

For sure he would have left Murray behind. He was gunning for #1 right after the 2009 season. What he was showing in court backed that up.

Another player who would have got right up there was Soderling. Up to the mono he was playing at a very high level, and was already #4.

As good as Murray was (I don't like the guy, but I know how good and consistent he was), the top 2 threats to his almost perennial #4 spot were stopped by injury/disease (by the way, I don't think both would have stopped there).

I think it's a stretch to say that Juan Martin would have left Murray behind. I think it's fair to say that he would have been a perennial top 5 with the Big 3. The rest is unknowable. He DID win a Major, beating Rafa and Roger on his way. That is big. I'm not saying that he couldn't have made Murray the 5th Beatle, but I don't think he'd have done away with him. There is a reason that Murray occupies his own category, in terms of those years, and it may be because there was no Del Potro for most of them, but it wouldn't have changed much, IMO.

As to Soderling, that one is even more unknowable. He was a mental wildcard, more than a perennial top 4. Flashes of brilliance, and flashes of insanity. Of course, we'll never know, but I think he'd shown his peak, and the competition was too stiff, when it mattered. He could be troublesome, but wasn't mentally tough enough to be a real threat.

 

[mrzz]

I think it's a stretch to say that Juan Martin would have left Murray behind. I think it's fair to say that he would have been a perennial top 5 with the Big 3. The rest is unknowable. He DID win a Major, beating Rafa and Roger on his way. That is big. I'm not saying that he couldn't have made Murray the 5th Beatle, but I don't think he'd have done away with him. There is a reason that Murray occupies his own category, in terms of those years, and it may be because there was no Del Potro for most of them, but it wouldn't have changed much, IMO.

As to Soderling, that one is even more unknowable. He was a mental wildcard, more than a perennial top 4. Flashes of brilliance, and flashes of insanity. Of course, we'll never know, but I think he'd shown his peak, and the competition was too stiff, when it mattered. He could be troublesome, but wasn't mentally tough enough to be a real threat.

It is not a stretch. It is an assessment based on results shown in court. Of course, we cannot know, but even banged up he locked horns with the big three on multiple occasions after those early years. It is only reasonable to assume he would do even better, and with waaay more consistency, if he was healthy

As for Soderling, again, the results back that up. His year end rankings, his titles, his everything was getting better year by year. He was stopped when he was on the rise, this is a fact. Of course, any projection is a subjective judgement call, but he was considered a threat in majors for a reason.

 

[Kieran]

For sure he would have left Murray behind. He was gunning for #1 right after the 2009 season. What he was showing in court backed that up.

Another player who would have got right up there was Soderling. Up to the mono he was playing at a very high level, and was already #4.

As good as Murray was (I don't like the guy, but I know how good and consistent he was), the top 2 threats to his almost perennial #4 spot were stopped by injury/disease (by the way, I don't think both would have stopped there).

I agree about DP but I don’t think Soderling was ever going to win slams. I just felt he had a perfect temperament to upset players in the early round but when the bright lights were on him, it wasn’t his scene…

 

[El Dude]

These things are ultimately unknowable. For JMDP, we don't know if he would have been better than he actually was if not dealing with chronic injuries. I mean, probably - but how much better? For Soderling, I tend to think he peaked in 2010. I mean, not only was he 26 already, but he dipped a bit to start 2011 - and before he came down with mono. He was a good candidate for a late career Slam or two, but he's really in a lower category than Del Potro and Murray.

That said, I do think we can safely say that--at the very least--a healthy Del Potro and Soderling would have filled out the huge gap between the Big Four and the field. But whether or not Del Potro would have equalled or surpassed Murray is hard to say. In a way, they were opposites, so it would have been an interesting contrast in opposites. We saw some of it, of course, but the dream of a healthy Delpo is unfulfilled, unfortunately.

 

[Fiero425]

These things are ultimately unknowable. For JMDP, we don't know if he would have been better than he actually was if not dealing with chronic injuries. I mean, probably - but how much better? For Soderling, I tend to think he peaked in 2010. I mean, not only was he 26 already, but he dipped a bit to start 2011 - and before he came down with mono. He was a good candidate for a late career Slam or two, but he's really in a lower category than Del Potro and Murray.

That said, I do think we can safely say that--at the very least--a healthy Del Potro and Soderling would have filled out the huge gap between the Big Four and the field. But whether or not Del Potro would have equalled or surpassed Murray is hard to say. In a way, they were opposites, so it would have been an interesting contrast in opposites. We saw some of it, of course, but the dream of a healthy Delpo is unfulfilled, unfortunately.

True enough, so much concerning Del Po is unknowable, except he did have a weapon; Murray did not! Even Novak feared DP's FH & stayed away from it! Murray could run all day & nite, but that's not a real weapon over frustrating lesser players who'd get anxious! Soderling had a couple good wins over Nadal in '09, but so much was going on w/ him that he was excused; injury, family drama, etc.! Soderling can't be mentioned in the same breath w/ Murray & Wawrinka; they actually won majors! I can only appreciate Robin for upsetting Rafa in Paris stopping his run into immortality before overcoming FO record of Borg!

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Even with the injuries, Del Potro has a case for 6th best player in the era, along with David Ferrer and Marin Cilic. If Del Potro stayed healthy, there's a chance he makes it a true Big Four (along with Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic), but I think it's most likely he forms the Next Three, along with Murray and Wawrinka.

Healthy Soderling probably bridges the gap in between Ferrer/Cilic (floor) and Wawrinka (ceiling).

 

[mrzz]

mean, not only was he 26 already, but he dipped a bit to start 2011 - and before he came down with mono.

He got to #4 late in 2010, and finished the year #5, a few points away from Murray. He started 2011 by winning Brisbane (guess he got the #4 spot back then). In July he was already completely out due to mono. It is obvious that he was feeling the effects of it before that.

It is a fact that he was already mixing up with Murray when he was stopped by mono. People might disagree on what he would next, but he was a factor, not a promise.

In my personal opinion, his overall level was extremely high by the end of 2010, and he would climb even more on the rankings.

 

[shawnbm]

Yep! That's about right! I told you I was a huge fan of Federer! He was anointed The GOAT in 2009 after his win at Wimbledon over Roddick for the 4th time IIRC! That gave him 15 majors, 1 more than Sampras! Poor Andy had that match w/ multiple set pts. to go up 2 sets to Luv! He blew that high BH volley in the TB & gave Roger life! If you consider A-Rod his best rival at the time, it's perfectly valid for me to critique his comp.! You & I were probably giving him cover when destroyed on clay by Rafa; esp. in those FO finals! He's still one of the greatest, but he's still owned by 2 other players! No doubt about that as they got where they are in less time, overcoming the Lost I, II, & Next Gen. of players! Borg will always stand out due to getting to double digits in majors 1st in the Pro Era! Novak just owns the other records & adding to them all the time!

Oh come on now! Federer is right up there with Novak and Borg and Rafa and Laver. When he broke Pete's record, he did it having won on every surface, including at the majors. Rafa had just joined Roger at that level by winning the AO earlier that year. Nadal was his greatest rival and young Novak was already pushing his elbows out as to both Roger and Rafa. Roger was just the most complete player and played the biggest points best from late 2003-2009, except for 2006 Rome final (he had two match points), 2008 SW19 and naturally any battle with Nadal on clay save Hamburg in 2007. Nadal ended up peaking in 2008, 2010-2013 (but Novak had a year for the ages in 2011) and since then has mostly still dominated on clay. (Yes, I know he also won 3 additional hard court majors--but he largely fell short on those surfaces after 2013, especially against Roger and Novak). Nadal was clearly Roger's great rival for a long time, not Andy Roddick--he was a second tier rival and really a major rival the first two years of Roger's dominance. Novak also became a greater rival across all surfaces. He has a slightly better record against Fed but not by much, and most of it post-2013 when clearly Roger was not the same player from years earlier.

 

[El Dude]

He got to #4 late in 2010, and finished the year #5, a few points away from Murray. He started 2011 by winning Brisbane (guess he got the #4 spot back then). In July he was already completely out due to mono. It is obvious that he was feeling the effects of it before that.

It is a fact that he was already mixing up with Murray when he was stopped by mono. People might disagree on what he would next, but he was a factor, not a promise.

In my personal opinion, his overall level was extremely high by the end of 2010, and he would climb even more on the rankings.

I hear you - and agree that he was a "factor' (assuming you mean at Slams and big titles). Meaning, he had something more than the Berdychs and Tsongas of the world. I suppose a best-case scenario is something like Wawrinka, who also was late-blooming.

 

[Fiero425]

Oh come on now! Federer is right up there with Novak and Borg and Rafa and Laver. When he broke Pete's record, he did it having won on every surface, including at the majors. Rafa had just joined Roger at that level by winning the AO earlier that year. Nadal was his greatest rival and young Novak was already pushing his elbows out as to both Roger and Rafa. Roger was just the most complete player and played the biggest points best from late 2003-2009, except for 2006 Rome final (he had two match points), 2008 SW19 and naturally any battle with Nadal on clay save Hamburg in 2007. Nadal ended up peaking in 2008, 2010-2013 (but Novak had a year for the ages in 2011) and since then has mostly still dominated on clay. (Yes, I know he also won 3 additional hard court majors--but he largely fell short on those surfaces after 2013, especially against Roger and Novak). Nadal was clearly Roger's great rival for a long time, not Andy Roddick--he was a second tier rival and really a major rival the first two years of Roger's dominance. Novak also became a greater rival across all surfaces. He has a slightly better record against Fed but not by much, and most of it post-2013 when clearly Roger was not the same player from years earlier.

Oh, for sure I'm not undermining Roger to relegate him outside of other greats! It's how I feel about commentators & the Tennis Intelligentsia that believe tennis begins & ends w/ Fedal; actually joining them at the hip when Nadal owned Federer early & often! The rivalry was a farce to some extent; esp. on clay! When Roger couldn't finsh off Rafa at Wimbledon I thought the nonsense would stop, but that match has now been proclaimed "the best ever!" Yeah, right! People say that only b/c of the participants IMO! I think Novak's win in 2019 @ Wimbledon s/b up there, not just b/c of the saved MP's, but b/c Fed was playing well & was so close! Novak owned TB's then snatching victory from the jaws of defeat!

 

[shawnbm]

I have always thought the Federer-Djokovic battles on the grass courts of Wimbledon in 2014 and 2019 were better matches quality-wise than the 2008 final. Roger really felt deflated losing with two championship points on his service. I don't think anyone could believe that would have happened if they were asked to bet on it. Federer had been the better player up to those two points, which was astounding in and of itself.