Good point about making adjustments. We all knew Djoke wouldn't play the same way in the second match especially w/ a recent loss to analyze and dissect. I like Cahill, but sending his charge out there and expecting the same gameplan to rattle Djoke was a mistake. That lightening really only strikes once. If anything they should have taken more cues and adjustments from the Charlie SF match.
There’s no way you thought Sinner was going to play the same in the final. And that Novak was too. You predicted that so you could save face if Novak lost by nobody could have expected him to. He beat 3 novices at this event, and HH. Let’s not lose the head, eh?
That's a good question, since they all play the top 8 guys, or the top 8 available. Meaning by ranking, it's all much the same. Ultimate Tennis Statistics may rank historical ones by their rankings of players, but if you have 3 players who're 20/20/22 years old, they don't have much record to go by, plus those 3 had never even made the ATP finals before. I wonder how this one made #36? Maybe H2H?
Right, but with two caveats: One, the format wasn't always the top 8. In 1985, the Masters Grand Prix was the top 16 players, which is why Smid was there. Two, clearly there's variance in the quality of the top 8 in any given year. I believe the stat (Relative Difficulty) is determined by Elo Rating.
I view the young guns as having great potential for the future, and they acquitted themselves well, particularly Sinner. But I do think that maybe Novak was a bit low with cold or something, earlier in the week? Not an excuse, just an observation. However, when the rubber met the road, he raised himself to his full height, as we all expected. (Or, except for perhaps @MikeOne. LOL.) Experience will out. Plus, he's been amazing on indoor hards. I don't agree with those who think that Sinner should have taken Novak out the cheap (and cheaters way.) Rune could have done it, but didn't summon his best. Novak, like the best of 'em, got the window of opportunity and did not look back.
I did not know that about the format. Interesting. (And yet another reason eras are hard to compare.) Note: I've never even heard of Smid.
Yes, as I suggested. But you have 3 really young players, so how much does their ELO rating mean, at this point? Serious question.
Obviously, Alcaraz is not chopped liver. He has 2 Majors and a not insignificant weeks at #1. I'm fine with your assessment of the resumes of the rest. I'm not actually "implying" anything. This gets back to our argument that you think I am, basically all the time, trying to "imply" something. I'm questioning methodology, which I think is fair. YOU like the way they assessed it because you buy into it. Personally, I think there's too little data, based on the data they use, to rate it. Or rate it the way they do. Don't you even think it's a bit dodgy, given the youth and lack of resume of a few players? I'm not trying to underrate Novak's win, which is what you think. I'm just questioning the Ultimate Tennis Statistic's ranking of this particular YEC. I'd be much more impressed if they said "too little data to rank."
Actually, I think young player Elo might mean more than, say, Andy Murray's Elo in 2018-19, when he was clearly a shadow of his former self but his Elo only slowly declined, and was still over 2200 (about top 5) deep into 2019. As you and I have discussed, Elo isn't great for very recent form, because it accrues over time and only slowly goes down (e.g. a player could absolutely kill it, reach 2500 Elo, then lose their next ten matches and still be above #1 caliber 2400...it takes awhile to go down). Actually, UTS has a "Recent Elo" stat...not sure how recent it draws from, but it is better for pinpointing form in any given moment.
I don't want to go back to that kerfuffle, to be honest - and I'm not implying that you are implying (haha). I just posted the UTS stat because it gives us a metric to assess with. I don't know how accurate it is, but I generally agree with the result: that this YEC was below average in difficulty, but not hugely so. Some recent ones have been far easier: Dimitrov's 2017 was the second easiest in the Open Era, and Novak's 2014 and last year were both much easier, in the bottom ten.
Not at all but neither do I think that 20 year old kids in development are hardened experience US navy seals when it comes to battle. They’re not. Remember, I called it immediately after the semi, that Novak would roll Sinner who’d learn the difference between the road to the final - and the final itself.OMG! I had no idea you had such animus & a low regard for the top talent of the tour! IDK what you want?! Rune & Alcaraz have proved they can defeat Novak in the crunch; actually having winning records! HH's one of the best servers on the tour & this court is supposedly the fasted! Djokovic's draw was tough; esp. getting the "new guns" in his path! All superlatives have been used on the guy and it's deserved! He's the last man standing of the Big 3 and dealing w/ them from his beginning of pro play incentivized him! His numbers might not be as good w/o them pushing him & Andy Murray! His critics have resorted to undermining other players and pointing out his weakness on the Overhead! That's their biggest gripe!
Interesting to read what your perspective here is when a few months back, you picked carlos to beat Novak in wimbledon finals. You felt he was ready to dethrone novak in arguably toughest surface, in a slam final but now have flipped and have no confidence in the 20 year olds? What has changed?
Nothing has changed. You’re still wrong in everything, every time you post. Here’s what I said about the Wimbledon final. Slightly a bit more to it than your simplistic memory tells us.
….
i said when he plays his top level, he wasn’t in top gear in wimbledon finals, carlos cannot beat novak in top gear on grass.
Well, but then why didn't he play his best that day? Everything was on the line, including keeping alive the CYGS.You say that Carlos can't beat Novak in top-gear on grass, but he did beat him, in a high-stakes match. I find it tiresome this notion of "at his best," (which we also got a lot of from Fedfans.) No one plays their best all the time, especially as they get older. I have plenty of theories as to why Novak wasn't ready for Carlos in that final at Wimbledon, which I have already expressed on these forums. But one glaring one is what he said himself: that he basically underestimated him. It seems he's trying not to do that again.
2014 was nine years ago. He was MUCH younger, and against a more known opponent. (Who was then 32.) Why should he even still have his 2014 level, at 36? Oh, sure, if he'd played like he did at 27. And if he had been playing a man 6 years older, not 16 years younger. Time comes for us all, Mike.
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