Federer's Schedule for 2016

[GameSetAndMath]

ATP had announced its schedule for 2016 couple of months ago. As expected, the most important changes are
in accommodating the Olympics. They made sure that Olympics does not interfere with ATP 1000 events by moving Toronto two weeks earlier. Now, Olympics is scheduled in between Toronto and Cincinnatti.
The seven weeks gap between Wimbledon and USO is now deal with as follows.

1. Hamburg 500 (and other minor things including DC and Newport)
2. Washington DC 500 (and other minor stuff)
3. Toronto 1000
4. Olympics (and some minor tourneys)
5. Olympics
6. Cincinnatti 1000
7. Winston-Salem

The schedule is almost complete except for couple of things.

1. They have not figured out in which week will be Vienna and in which week will be Valencia.
Also, they have not decided which will be 500 and which will be 250.
2. The contract with London O2 for hosting WTF expires at the end of 2015. They have not
decided where to hold it from 2016. There is also a possibility that they will continue to
hold it in O2.

Federer always surprises me with his schedule. Just when I think I have figured out what he will do, there is always a change. He has not yet released his full schedule for 2016. But he has announced that he will play in Rotterdam 500 in 2016.

I don't know what this means. Is Fed attempting to make a run at #1 once again? Perhaps he anticipates Novak to slip in 2016 and if so, use that opportunity. He last played in Rotterdam in 2012 when he wanted to make a run for #1 (which he did successfully).

Here are some of my thinking as to what Fed will do in 2016.

1. I think he will skip Miami and Toronto. Skipping Miami gives him two weeks rest and
he surely would not want to jeopardize his chances at Olympics by playing in Toronto.
Also, he has nothing to defend in these two tourneys.

2. I also expect that he will skip Shanghai and instead play in Vienna and Basel (assuming
Vienna is 500 and is in a different week than Basel). Shanghai is a lot of travel for just
one tourney and he usually goes there by himself without family. Also, he has already
won the Shanghai once. Finally, he has nothing to defend in Shanghai.

3. Next year is Stuttgart's 100th anniversary. Now that they have switched to grass,
they are trying to entice Fed to play there next year for the 100th anniversary by
throwing some big bucks at him. This is a week before Halle and right after RG.
I think Fed will reject their offer if he reaches second week of RG and otherwise
take it up.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

I agree, I don't see the fedster playing Miami (too hot n humid and ideal for a break like you said), Toronto masters is too much these days even if the olympics wasn't happening.

I like the idea of maybe playing Stuttgart on grass. he could lose at rg in 4thrd/qf quite easily I think, I mean does he really think he can win French open ?...I think not.

atp250>AO>rotterdam>dubai>indian wells: likely be first 5 tourneys, then a break then European clay.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

atp250>AO>rotterdam>dubai>indian wells: likely be first 5 tourneys, then a break then European clay.

No doubt, those will be the first five. Even the atp 250 is known. It will be Brisbane, unless somebody throws a lot of money at Fed. But, I am sure Chennai people don't have that kind of money. So, Fed will be opening 2016 with Brisbane.

 

[Puppet Master]

As soon as you mentioned making a run for the #1 spot I suddenly went all fangirl mode and watched some highlights of the old days, however, by that time it will have already been 4 years since he last pushed for the number one spot and even then they were calling him an old man. How time flies. I won't lie, I am thrilled about this prospect GSM, and it surprised me quite a lot.

 

[Kieran]

Will next year be Federer's last full season on tour? Certainly, scheduling for him has to be something he gets right. The Olympics has fecked up the summer again, and so players have to choose between the tourneys which are loyal to them, their bread and butter, or go get some bling that makes you look like a second rate Olympian.

I think the first five tourneys look right for Federer, and his other big choice (apart from which ATP MS tourney he'll stab in the back in the summer) comes on clay. Realistically, he's not winning Paris, and other MS events look crowded with potential champs too (more so than hards, actually), but he has to have some schedule that keeps him playing. I think his priority after the first 5 events will be Wimbledon, then the Olympics, then the US Open. Given this, I expect his clay season to be the most truncated he's ever had, then he may play Stuttgart...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Federer has a "lifetime agreement" signed with Halle (for un undisclosed multimillion dollars) few years ago and so he is contractually bound to play in Halle barring exceptional circumstances. So, he cannot play in Stuttgart in lieu of Halle, he can only play in Stuttgart in addition to Halle.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed has explicitly said that he will play through the end of the year 2016, meaning that he will not retire in the middle of the year 2016. But, he is obviously not saying that 2016 will be his last year.
Here are some excerpts from an interview he gave in Shanghai.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

While not official yet, it looks like next year, Vienna will retain its 500 status, but will be moved a week later so that it concurrently happens with the other indoor 500 in Basel. This means the chances of Fed playing in there are 0. But, they are trying to recruit Novak or Rafa to play there.

If you read through that article, you will know the amount Rafa got as "appearance fee" in Basel.
It is $250,000 per year for a three year contract worth $750,000. Now, the term is over and Rafa
is free to renegotiate a deal with Basel or switch to Vienna if the terms are more attractive.

 

[Kieran]

Nice article on Federer, with reference also to his schedules for 2016 - and 2017!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

So, Federer is alluding to "Phased Retirement". At my work, they have "phased retirement" where the people who choose to go through it get to work for 3 years at 50% of the pay for 50% of time.
It is supposed to help them come to gradual stop, instead of stopping work altogether at one point of time.

So, most probably 2016 might be the last year of "full schedule" for Federer. In 2015, he would
have played in 17 tourneys by year end including WTF (ATP allows one to count 19 tourneys and so
17 is slightly below completely full).

Perhaps he might bring it down from about 16 tourneys in 2016 to 8 in 2020 (cutting about
2 tourneys per year) and then finally playing just the 4 GS and 4 favorite warm up tourneys just
before the GSs in 2020 and then quit.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I am not sure what kind of surface the Games will be played on, but assuming Roger wants a decent shot at it, he should play Toronto and get some matches under his belt. The gap after Wimby till the Games is too long.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I am not sure what kind of surface the Games will be played on, but assuming Roger wants a decent shot at it, he should play Toronto and get some matches under his belt. The gap after Wimby till the Games is too long.

You have vested interests because you want to see Fed in Toronto. :ras: Got you. :lolz:

It is just 3.5 weeks between end of Wimby and start of Olympics. That is not a big gap.
However, if he is prioritizing Olympics he might choose to play in Toronto, if he thinks actual
tournament practice is good for him as a preparation for Olympics.

This year Roger announced his schedule in a piece-meal basis in three installments (partly due to the tantalizing prospect he had at the beginning of the year for possibly making a run at #1).
On the other hand, I expect him to announce his schedule in one stroke for 2016 (although there
may be some adjustments if needed later on to it). Typically he announces his complete schedule
for next year before the end of previous year (2015 was an exception). Given that WTF will be
over by 23rd November, I expect that he will release his schedule by 7th Dec (if not the complete
schedule, at least for the first half of it).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Forget about Fed retiring anytime soon. After the Basel finals, Federer was so happy with how it all went that he said he wants to be playing in Basel when they open a new stadium there in 2018.

 

[tented]

I am not sure what kind of surface the Games will be played on, but assuming Roger wants a decent shot at it, he should play Toronto and get some matches under his belt. The gap after Wimby till the Games is too long.

Rio will be played on a hard court.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The schedule is almost complete except for couple of things.

1. They have not figured out in which week will be Vienna and in which week will be Valencia.
Also, they have not decided which will be 500 and which will be 250.
2. The contract with London O2 for hosting WTF expires at the end of 2015. They have not
decided where to hold it from 2016. There is also a possibility that they will continue to
hold it in O2.

The mystery is now over.

As far as item 2 is concerned, London O2 got 3 year extension and so WTF will be there till at least 2018. ATP has officially announced this.

As far as 1 is concerned, Vienna will be a 500 and will be a week before Basel. Valencia tournament is dead (at least temporarily) as the tournament organizers and local government
officials have some disputes. Next year, that spot goes to Belgium. They have not decided the
city yet. It will be either Antwerp or Brussels. This is all from the rumor mills (although quiet
reliable). Official announcement from ATP expected in about 10 more days.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are some of my thinking as to what Fed will do in 2016.

1. I think he will skip Miami and Toronto. Skipping Miami gives him two weeks rest and
he surely would not want to jeopardize his chances at Olympics by playing in Toronto.
Also, he has nothing to defend in these two tourneys.

2. I also expect that he will skip Shanghai and instead play in Vienna and Basel (assuming
Vienna is 500 and is in a different week than Basel). Shanghai is a lot of travel for just
one tourney and he usually goes there by himself without family. Also, he has already
won the Shanghai once. Finally, he has nothing to defend in Shanghai.

3. Next year is Stuttgart's 100th anniversary. Now that they have switched to grass,
they are trying to entice Fed to play there next year for the 100th anniversary by
throwing some big bucks at him. This is a week before Halle and right after RG.
I think Fed will reject their offer if he reaches second week of RG and otherwise
take it up.

I take back the item 2 above. If Fed were to actually play in Vienna, that would mean
he would have to play for three weeks in a row: Vienna, Basel and Bercy and so Fed would
not play in Vienna even if he skips Shanghai. But, he may skip Shanghai next year though.
It is a busy year with Olympics and Fed playing Rotterdam also.

 

[isabelle]

Here are some of my thinking as to what Fed will do in 2016.

1. I think he will skip Miami and Toronto. Skipping Miami gives him two weeks rest and
he surely would not want to jeopardize his chances at Olympics by playing in Toronto.
Also, he has nothing to defend in these two tourneys.

2. I also expect that he will skip Shanghai and instead play in Vienna and Basel (assuming
Vienna is 500 and is in a different week than Basel). Shanghai is a lot of travel for just
one tourney and he usually goes there by himself without family. Also, he has already
won the Shanghai once. Finally, he has nothing to defend in Shanghai.

3. Next year is Stuttgart's 100th anniversary. Now that they have switched to grass,
they are trying to entice Fed to play there next year for the 100th anniversary by
throwing some big bucks at him. This is a week before Halle and right after RG.
I think Fed will reject their offer if he reaches second week of RG and otherwise
take it up.

I take back the item 2 above. If Fed were to actually play in Vienna, that would mean
he would have to play for three weeks in a row: Vienna, Basel and Bercy and so Fed would
not play in Vienna even if he skips Shanghai. But, he may skip Shanghai next year though.
It is a busy year with Olympics and Fed playing Rotterdam also.

Basel + Bercy are already too much for his body in 2015 so if he adds Vienna in 2016 at the age of 35...I'm not sure he'll be finished the year in top form...he should play less in 2016 if he doesn't want to pick up some injury

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It is not his body. After reaching finals in both Wimbledon and USO and losing out in both (despite Novak being vulnerable in USO especially), I think Fed is little dejected and that is translating in to
lacklusture performance in the post USO season.

Bodywise, I don't think Basel+Bercy is a big deal for him. But, adding in Vienna is too much and I don't think he will do it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There is not much mystry left in Fed's schedule.

If you count 4 GS, 7 ATP 1000 events of the 9 (excluding Miami and Toronto), the Olympics and the WTF, that is already 13 events. Fed had already announced that he will play in Rotterdam. Dubai, Halle and Basel are his bread and butter. If you add these four ATP 500s in the mix, the number of events become 17. If you add the Brisbane, which he will surely play as a warm up for AO, the number of events becomes 18. That is a full plate (and already one more than the number of events he participated in this year). If he accepts Stuttgart's offer that will make it to 19 (the maximum number of countable tournaments as per the rankings rules of ATP).

May not be a bad idea to play a full schedule for one last year, before reducing it gradually; also, might give rise to chances at #1 ranking (just dreaming).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This was posted by Front elsewhere. I am posting it here for ease of reference for followers of this thread. Fed has committed to play in Stuttgart for the next two years. Now, we know for sure all the tourneys that he will play except for the Master's events.

GS: All four
ATP 500: Rotterdam, Dubai, Halle and Basel
ATP 250: Brisbane and Stuttgart
Special Events: Olympics and WTF.

That is already 12 events and we have not counted a single Masters. uzzled