Federer's Schedule for 2015

[GameSetAndMath]

This is the first year in a long time that Fed has not announced his schedule before
the beginning of the year. He is expected to announce it soon. He is probably waiting
for the AO news cycle to end before making the announcement.

One of the reasons he waited is to see whether he has a shot at reaching #1
based on the results of AO. Now, that part is clear. Fed is taking a loss at AO
(SF vs. R3) and Novak is gaining (QF vs. atleast SF). The point spread was
already quite high and now it is over 2500. So Fed can forget about making
reaching #1 as a goal. As Rafa said at the beginning of the year, if it happens
good, but should not be a goal for Fed.

However, it is important that he remains as #2 in order to give him a
chance at winning another slam (where Rafa and Novak end in the same half).
So, I think he will skip one of Miami or Montecarlo, but not both. I think most
probably he will skip MC this year.

Another question is whether he will play DC. I think he will play as it
would be difficult to say no immediately after winning. He will at least play
the first round to make sure that Swiss remains in world group
and then use a wait and see ad hoc approach based on how the body
feels and the chances of repeating for the later rounds.

The interesting thing is that if he plays in DC also, he will have to
play for six weeks in a row, a week at Dubai, a week in DC, two weeks
each in IW and M. But, I think he can handle it.

I would really like him to play in a low key 250 clay (Munich or Istanbul as Estoril seems
to be dead) this year to get his clay feet and if there is no danger (most probably there will
not be any) of his #2 ranking slipping away, he can perhaps skip Madrid too, as it is not
a great tourney as a warm up to RG and at this time for Fed everything is about GSs.
He can just follow up the 250 clay with Rome as a prep for RG.

There is not much mystery about the rest of his schedule as Dubai, Halle and Basel
are all like his home tourneys (and he has already played and Won Brisbane).

 

[rafanoy1992]

This is the first year in a long time that Fed has not announced his schedule before
the beginning of the year. He is expected to announce it soon. He is probably waiting
for the AO news cycle to end before making the announcement.

One of the reasons he waited is to see whether he has a shot at reaching #1
based on the results of AO. Now, that part is clear. Fed is taking a loss at AO
(SF vs. R3) and Novak is gaining (QF vs. atleast SF). The point spread was
already quite high and so Fed can forget about making reaching #1 as a goal.

However, it is important that he remains as #2 in order to give him a
chance at winning another slam (where Rafa and Novak end in the same half).
So, I think he will skip one of Miami or Montecarlo, but not both. I think most
probably he will skip MC this year.

Another question is whether he will play DC. I think he will play as it
would be difficult to say no immediately after winning. He will at least play
the first round to make sure that Swiss remains in international group
and then use a wait and see ad hoc approach based on how the body
feels and the chances of repeating for the later rounds.

The interesting thing is that if he plays in DC also, he will have to
play for six weeks in a row, a week at Dubai, a week in DC, two weeks
each in IW and M. But, I think he can handle it.

There is not much mystery about the rest of his schedule as Dubai, Halle and Basel
are all like his home tourneys (and he has already played and Won Dubai).

I would really like him to play in a low key 250 clay (Munich or Istanbul as Estoril seems
to be dead) this year to get his clay feet and if there is no danger (most probably there will
not be any) of his #2 ranking slipping away, he can perhaps skip Madrid too, as it is not
a great tourney as a warm up to RG and at this time for Fed everything is about GSs.
He can just follow up the 250 clay with Rome as a prep for RG.

I don't think he will play DC in the first round. I think he will try to rest a lot to conserve some energy after RG. He has played a lot of matches since last year so he needs all the rest in order to do well from Wimbledon to US Open.

Also, I don't see Federer playing smaller clay events to get his clay feet or to keep his number 2 ranking before RG. I this point he knows his best chance to win a slam is at Wimbledon and at the US Open. In order to do that, he needs to stay fresh as possible. Besides, Nadal can't really gain a lot of points before Roland Garros. Nadal is defending 2470 points from Miami to Rome Masters. Meanwhile, Federer is only defending around 900 points from Miami Rome Masters. So, it will be hard for Nadal to overtake Federer before Roland Garros. Unless of course Nadal wins every tournament from here on out and Federer doesn't play until Roland Garros.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Sure, he would want to make sure that he can be at the peak for Wimbledon and USO and
considering he played a lot last year and has even explicitly said he needs a break now, we
may expect some downsizing from him. But then, I really doubt the downsizing will be
anything more than skipping MC though as he would still want to play a near full schedule.

As for small clay tourney, it is best for him to do so, as he can win a title and even if
he does not win the title, he will get few solid clay match practice. That is better than
getting kicked out early in Rome and heading to RG without much clay practice.

Interestingly, while everybody expects him to win at Wimbledon or USO, RG is not
out of question (especially if somebody is taken out by somebody else), even though less
probable certainly.

Finally, he will play in DC first round, as first it is in Belgium and not that is too too much
of a hassle to travel there and second it is being played on indoor hard courts and so does
not involve change of surface from the regular tourneys going on at that time.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Sure, he would want to make sure that he can be at the peak for Wimbledon and USO and
considering he played a lot last year and has even explicitly said he needs a break now, we
may expect some downsizing from him. But then, I really doubt the downsizing will be
anything more than skipping MC though as he would still want to play a near full schedule.

As for small clay tourney, it is best for him to do so, as he can win a title and even if
he does not win the title, he will get few solid clay match practice. That is better than
getting kicked out early in Rome and heading to RG without much clay practice.

Interestingly, while everybody expects him to win at Wimbledon or USO, RG is not
out of question (especially if somebody is taken out by somebody else), even though less
probable certainly.

Finally, he will play in DC first round, as first it is in Belgium and not that is too too much
of a hassle to travel there and second it is being played on indoor hard courts and so does
not involve change of surface from the regular tourneys going on at that time.

I don't think he will downsize his schedule but I don't think he will add more tournament to his schedule. I think he knows his ranking is safe until Roland Garros.

I hate to say it but him winning RG is probably over at this point of his career. I'm not saying it is not impossible but it will be really tough for him to win at RG again because there's a lot more players that can upset him over there.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Ya, I agree Rafa is not his only problem at RG anymore. Any big hitter who gets enough
time to line up their shots, will be able to take him out. But, I would not say it is impossible
for him, but definitely highly improbable.

 

[auto-pilot]

Yeah Gulbis took him out at RG, but even if he avoids Gulbis-types what are the odds of both Nadal and Djokovic being eliminated?
Then again, nobody saw Federer's 2011 RG win over Djokovic coming.

 

[DarthFed]

I think it's best for Federer to gear up for Wimbledon and USO and that means not playing much on clay. Last year worked perfect for him in that respect, he missed Madrid after the birth of the 2nd set of twins, and then lost early in Rome and RG. He was fresh and ready to go for Wimbledon. With Rafa or Nole in the draw there is pretty much no prayer for Roger at RG now, even if both are out I wouldn't give him a good chance as there are simply too many players that can beat him on clay at this point.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The schedule of Fed is not yet released.

Meanwhile, today there are rumors floating around the net that Roger may play in
Istanbul (new Clay ATP 250 tourney).

Can anybody translate this.

Recently a French tournament organizer said the going rate to book any of the big 3
players to participate in a 250 tourney is a million bucks. Istanbul might have it and
roger might take it. Make hay while sun shines.

 

[Kieran]

Federer has hay, if he's going to put hay making as his priority now he may as well retire. I never understand why these mega rich sportsmen jeopardise their chances by playing senseless tourneys or exos. Rafa included. They're richer than Croesus and they still haul their entourage to far-flung places for a relative pittance...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

No, no hey is added bonus. I am in favor of Roger playing an ATP 250 in preparation for
RG this season. Playing against weak field gives you match practice and one can get used
to playing on clay. Further, it sort of guarantees one free title, that too on clay for Fed.

As Fed is not running for #1 ranking it is not all that important that he plays in only
in big tourney that award lot of points.

See my post well before Istabul happened, in which I said I would like Fed to play
in a small clay tourney this year.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It is now expected that Fed will skip MC.

Last year he did not play in Madrid and got out early in Rome. Hence, he has nothing
to lose from these two tourney. This combined with the fact that he is not the running for #1
ranking anymore, leads me to believe that Fed will skip Madrid too this year, provided it is
clear (by the end of Istanbul tourney) that he is guaranteed to enter RG as #2 seed.

 

[El Dude]

I wonder how much Fed cares about his stats. I mean, if he does then I could see him wanting to stockpile ATP 250s and 500s to at least pass Ivan Lendl. Right now the total ATP titles are:

109 Connors
94 Lendl
83 Federer
77 McEnroe
64 Borg, Sampras
62 Vilas, Nadal
60 Agassi
49 Becker, Djokovic

Connors is essentially out of reach - Roger would need 26 tournaments, which is virtually impossible at this point. To put that in context, Roger compiled 26 titles from 2009 to the present - six+ years. Even if he somehow managed the same pace going forward he would need to play at least through 2020 into 2021, the year he turns 40.

That said, Roger needs "only" 12 to pass Lendl, which is do-able by the end of 2017 - the year he turns 36. It could happen.

 

[El Dude]

Just a bit more. I imagine what he wants more than anything else are more Grand Slams with total titles being a secondary goal. His strategy is likely whatever he and Edberg think maximizes his chances of, first and foremost, winning another Slam, and secondly, accruing a few more titles.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The point of getting a title in Istanbul is not so much to chase Connors on that count.
Playing in a small clay event first of all ensures that he will play few matches and get his
clay feet (whether or not he gets the title). Second, winning a title always gives folks a
confidence, no matter how many titles they have won before.

Especially, with competition trying to rev it up and Fed getting older, it is definitely
a good idea for Fed to play in a small clay event.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Just a bit more. I imagine what he wants more than anything else are more Grand Slams with total titles being a secondary goal. His strategy is likely whatever he and Edberg think maximizes his chances of, first and foremost, winning another Slam, and secondly, accruing a few more titles.

I think it is a no-brainer and nobody is arguing against it.

 

[DarthFed]

When would this tourney be taking place? If it's not in close proximity with IW and Miami it's not too big of a deal. It's odd, kind of random, but not a big deal.

 

[El Dude]

Just a bit more. I imagine what he wants more than anything else are more Grand Slams with total titles being a secondary goal. His strategy is likely whatever he and Edberg think maximizes his chances of, first and foremost, winning another Slam, and secondly, accruing a few more titles.

I think it is a no-brainer and nobody is arguing against it.

Yes, I know. Did it seem like I was positing that some are arguing against it?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

When would this tourney be taking place? If it's not in close proximity with IW and Miami it's not too big of a deal. It's odd, kind of random, but not a big deal.

This takes place the week before Madrid.

After Miami, Fed would get three weeks rest. Then would come three weeks of play in
a row, Istanbul, Madrid (if he plays) and Rome. Then a week of practice and then onto RG.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

So, Fed will play three ATP 500s this year: Dubai, Halle and Basel (although not officially
announced yet, these three are staple tourneys for Roger) and two ATP 250s: Brisbane and
Istanbul (most probably). That leaves room for only one more optional tournament even in a full
schedule. That could be either DC or MC (or most probably neither).

It looks more and more like Fed will skip the first round of DC and then do a rescue operation
(to retain the world group status) in the play-off that happens after USO, if needed. If Stan also
does not play the first round, the rescue operation will be needed; otherwise, it will most likely
not be needed. In that case, Fed would not mind playing in the QF onwards as they happen
after Wimby.

 

[DarthFed]

When would this tourney be taking place? If it's not in close proximity with IW and Miami it's not too big of a deal. It's odd, kind of random, but not a big deal.

This takes place the week before Madrid.

After Miami, Fed would get three weeks rest. Then would come three weeks of play in
a row, Istanbul, Madrid (if he plays) and Rome. Then a week of practice and then onto RG.

Scratch that, it IS stupid to go there then.