Well - If Nadal plays as he did against Dmitrov or Nishikori, he will be on the express flight back home. That much is clear. I can't recall Nadal beating Fed when he was playing this bad. In fact, I don't think he would beat any top player playing this way. Thankfully, it's not Djoko he has to contend with. That would have been a beat down, what with Nadal's WTA serve and forehand UFEs.
I'm sure Rafa knows he needs to up his level especially on the serve and the forehand. Whether he can (blisters?) or will, is a different story.
With no disrespect, this match most definitely is the defacto final. Neither of the players should have difficulty with Berdych/Wawrinka in the final.
Fed looks good. He just seems to have that extra pop and his serve has looked better than I can remember. He still gets nervy though as he did in the closing stages of the match. But all credit to beating Murray.
I think someone gets this in 4 sets. The biggest variable is whether Nadal puts up a better performance. If not, Fed should get it, otherwise you have to back Rafa given their history.