2018 Wimbledon Championships - Men

[DarthFed]

Fed will have 2 days off before his match against Coric i.e if Coric even makes it that far because he has to play Medvedev which won't be easy. Also let's face it, Fed was in terrible form in IW and still won. In Halle he should've won in two so even though Coric is not an easy matchup because of his solid baseline game and return and no real weaknesses, he's not a proven quantity in slams unlike Cilic.

In the SF, both Fed and Cilic will be in good form so it's just a question of who delivers on the day. I pick Fed to GOAT for that SF.

Ofcourse if Fed keeps taking 10 BPs to convert one he could go out anytime, that much is clear.

Totally agree with this. I just feel like Fed would beat Cilic if that was the final but I have a bad feeling if that's the SF. Just a gut feeling. Also, if Nads is in the semi I think Fed finds a way to take that semi over Cilic because the threat to his legacy will be right in front of him. If Nads loses early as we hope, then I think Cilic wins.

Obviously tons of tennis to be played before that and we got to see if Fed can bring a lot higher level than Halle otherwise he will be gone before the SF.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Totally agree with this. I just feel like Fed would beat Cilic if that was the final but I have a bad feeling if that's the SF. Just a gut feeling. Also, if Nads is in the semi I think Fed finds a way to take that semi over Cilic because the threat to his legacy will be right in front of him. If Nads loses early as we hope, then I think Cilic wins.

Obviously tons of tennis to be played before that and we got to see if Fed can bring a lot higher level than Halle otherwise he will be gone before the SF.

If Nads loose early,We hope...who is We...Some of us pull for the underdawg

 

[atttomole]

Never thought I'll see the day when another player is called poor man's Coric. Always thought we would be saying Coric is poor man's fakervic.

It simply means that he is an inferior version of Coric, and comparisons can be made between any two players. Maybe you have never seen Lajovic play. He took Federer to a first set tie-break last year at Wimbledon, and seemed to lose confidence after he lost the tiebreak. Given the way Federer is playing right now, I won't be surprised if Lajovic takes a set or more. However, I think Federer wins the match if he plays the big points well. If not, Lajovic will gain confidence. I also think that Coric was galvanized at Halle because he noticed that Federer was a bit off. It doesn't take much to beat someone on grass.

 

[mrzz]

Lajovic will be a good test for Federer because he is able to hold serve and has a good forehand. However, he can not hit consistently. Lajovic is a poor man’s Borna Coric.

I am a fan of Lajovic and I can assure you there is close to zero correlation between those two.

Enviado de meu MotoE2(4G-LTE) usando o Tapatalk

 

[atttomole]

I am a fan of Lajovic and I can assure you there is close to zero correlation between those two.

Enviado de meu MotoE2(4G-LTE) usando o Tapatalk

It depends on what you are talking about when you say correlation. Remember that for grass its about getting your serve in and putting away the return. I actually find the two to be similar.

 

[monfed]

Can't say I'm thrilled to see Coric again especially after maybe having to face Ivo the round before. We will see early on if Fed can step it up. But the main thing I didn't want to see is Cilic in the semis. I'd have rather seen Djokovic in round 1 instead of Cilic in the semis. Nadal got about as easy a draw as imaginable of course.

It will be an exercise in itself to figure out the last time dull got a tough draw.

 

[DarthFed]

If Nads loose early,We hope...who is We...Some of us pull for the underdawg

Valar Morghulis for Ralphy at Wimbledon.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Finally, the draw is here. I am reasonably happy with Fed's draw, although I would have preferred Sasha in his half rather than Cilic. Fed's draw before SF is neither a walk in the park nor an uphill battle. It should be kept in mind that none of his opponents can be dismissed as nobodies. Having said that, I am very confident that Fed will reach SF or better. But, how he gets there will be important. If he gets there losing at most two or three sets, he will be in good shape. On the other hand, if he gets there by losing more sets, he would already be tired (just like in Halle) and won't be able to put up a great fight when it is really needed.


Here are the projected opponents as I see it.

1R: D. Lajovic (has a booming serve and a good forehand)
2R: L. Lacko (he is the finalist in Eastbourne this week and could potentially win it also).
3R: Karlovic (Ace Machine, but Fed is good in dealing with big servers)
4R: Coric (Not worried, as he is now a known devil and as this is five set match)
QF: Anderson / Querry (Both are big servers without spine, but Fed is good in dealing with big servers).
SF: Cilic / Raonic (have doubts with the former and confident against the later).
F: Djokovic / Kyrgios / Del Potro / Nadal (No matter who it is, it will be tough as all of them know how to beat Fed)

I think SF against Cilic will be tougher than the final against any of these fellows.

To summarize, Fed's success depends a lot on how much he is able to cruise in the first five rounds.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I also took a look at Rafa's section. He has a fairly easy draw. The only banana peel I see for him in the early rounds happens in 3rd round. He could potentially Misha Zverev (the serve and volleyer who took a set off of Rusty Fed) and Alex DeMinaur (the Nottingham champion and an up and coming youngster). Either of them is capable of giving Rafa a run for the money.

Once he gets past it, he has a easy run up to QF where no one can challenge him except JMDP. In the SF, I believe only Kyrgios can challenge him. But, no one knows whether JMDP / NK will be across the net from Rafa at these stages.

On the whole, a very promising draw for Rafa.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

According to the draw analysis in Wimby website both Fed and Rafa are winners of this draw. I agree with that up to SF stage. The crucial difference is the SF opponent.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I also took a look at Rafa's section. He has a fairly easy draw. The only banana peel I see for him in the early rounds happens in 3rd round. He could potentially Misha Zverev (the serve and volleyer who took a set off of Rusty Fed) and Alex DeMinaur (the Nottingham champion and an up and coming youngster). Either of them is capable of giving Rafa a run for the money.

Once he gets past it, he has a easy run up to QF where no one can challenge him except JMDP. In the SF, I believe only Kyrgios can challenge him. But, no one knows whether JMDP / NK will be across the net from Rafa at these stages.

On the whole, a very promising draw for Rafa.

I totally agree with your assessment about Nadal's draw.

As a Nadal fan, I could not complain about his draw at all. He really has 1 potential tricky match before the SF and that is against Mischa Zverev on the 3rd round. If he passes that test, then I could see him in the semifinals. I do not see JDMP as a huge threat if they ever meet in the quarterfinals. In addition, Murray will not be fit enough if he faces Nadal in the QF.

So unless Nadal stinks up the joint so bad, he should reach the SF...

But we will see, no?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I totally agree with your assessment about Nadal's draw.

As a Nadal fan, I could not complain about his draw at all. He really has 1 potential tricky match before the SF and that is against Mischa Zverev on the 3rd round. If he passes that test, then I could see him in the semifinals. I do not see JDMP as a huge threat if they ever meet in the quarterfinals. In addition, Murray will not be fit enough if he faces Nadal in the QF.

So unless Nadal stinks up the joint so bad, he should reach the SF...

But we will see, no?

Murray has not even decided whether to actually play in Wimbledon.

There is no way that Murray will last long enough to face Rafa. So, just don't worry about Murray. Murray has the trickiest draw. Even his first round opponent Benoit Paire is tricky. His second round opponent is either Jeremy Chardy (who is having phenomenal success on grass in warm ups) or Shapo (who is Boy's 2016 champ). His third round opponent is JMDP.

It does not appear that JMDP played in any warm-ups. Some say he is injured. If so, there is no one to threaten Rafa until SF, except for the tricky third round.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Murray has not even decided whether to actually play in Wimbledon.

There is no way that Murray will last long enough to face Rafa. So, just don't worry about Murray. Murray has the trickiest draw. Even his first round opponent Benoit Paire is tricky. His second round opponent is either Jeremy Chardy (who is having phenomenal success on grass in warm ups) or Shapo (who is Boy's 2016 champ). His third round opponent is JMDP.

It does not appear that JMDP played in any warm-ups. Some say he is injured. If so, there is no one to threaten Rafa until SF, except for the tricky third round.

I saw on Twitter that he is more than likely will play Wimbledon.

It will be interesting to see on comes out on JMDP's section. There a lot of players that could come out on that section.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As many as five different players (not counting the previously disclosed four) dropped out just before the draw. They are RBA, Chung, Rublev, Troicki and Andujar. So, five lucky losers got entry into MD including Bernard Tomic and Peter Polansky.

Also, due to RBA's withdrawal (who was previously seeded #14), Coric got an all too important seeding boost from #17 to #16. This may seem like a trivial one step up, but it is not. This one step up gives good draw advantage compared to some other one steps which are meaningless.

As both RBA and Chung were seeded players who withdrew, Tsitsipas and Leonardo Meyer got seeded as #31 and #32.

 

[mrzz]

It depends on what you are talking about when you say correlation. Remember that for grass its about getting your serve in and putting away the return. I actually find the two to be similar.

Coric is changing his playing style, but he is still a defense-oriented player. Lajovic is an offense-oriented player (even if not a ball basher). Not to mention the BH. That's what I meant.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

In the third quarter, neither Sasha nor Thiem will live up to their seedings. Most probably, the quarterfinal will be between Novak and Kyrgios.

 

[rafanoy1992]

In the third quarter, neither Sasha nor Thiem will live up to their seedings. Most probably, the quarterfinal will be between Novak and Kyrgios.

I trust Zverev more than Kyrgios at this point just because Nick's mental and physical condition.

Nick is a total enigma...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tignor predicts a Fedal final with Fed winning. I will take it (even though if that happens Rafa will be virtually assured of YE #1 again unless Roger wins USO).

 

[DarthFed]

I trust Zverev more than Kyrgios at this point just because Nick's mental and physical condition.

Nick is a total enigma...

I doubt Sascha is healthy. If he is id actually pick him to make the final here.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Latest odds after the draw is out. I gave 12 hours for the market to digest it. Seventeen folks are deemed to have a puncher's chance (1% or better), reduced from previous 19. Only four remain as contenders (10% or more, same as before), thanks partially to Novak falling in a different quarter than the other three contenders (which was not guaranteed due to Novak's low ranking).


1. Federer 7/4 (36%)
2. Djokovic 11/2 (15%)
3. Rafa 7 (12.5%)
4. Cilic 15/2 (12%)
5. Nick / Sasha 20 (5%)
7. JMDP 22 (4%)
8. Milos / Andy 33 (3%)
10. Coric / Thiem / Dimitrov / Anderson 50 (2%)
14. Edmund / Isner / Nishikori /Goffin 100 (1%)

Next in line is a three way tie between Uncle Sam, Shapo and Kachanov at odds of 125.

Important Changes / Observations.

1. Rafa moves slightly ahead of Cilic due to favorable draw.
2. JMDP moves ahead of Milos / Andy due to their injury concerns.
3. Shapo, Uncle Sam and Kachanov exit.
4. Goffin enters.