2018 Wimbledon men’s SF: Djokovic v Nadal

[Denis]

Ok people buckle up for another epic encounter between these two all time greats. Novak leads the h2h 26-25:

http://www.stevegtennis.com/head-to-head/men/Novak_Djokovic/Rafael_Nadal/

Last time they met here was the 2011 final, one of my favorite matches ever.

 

[Moxie]

Thing is, with the exception of RG 2015 (a period when you mentioned on another thread that Rafa had "fallen of a cliff,") Novak has only beaten Nadal at Majors in that brief run betw. W '11 and AO '12. Djokovic is playing much better than he has for 2 years, but Nadal is the #1, the holder of the most recent Major, and he's won 3 since Joker's last. Aside from old baggage, I don't see what edge Novak has in this SF. He's still too quick to get disgruntled and distract himself. He'll have to serve lights out and stay focused to win on Friday, and I'm not sure he's ready.

 

[Denis]

Thing is, with the exception of RG 2015 (a period when you mentioned on another thread that Rafa had "fallen of a cliff,") Novak has only beaten Nadal at Majors in that brief run betw. W '11 and AO '12. Djokovic is playing much better than he has for 2 years, but Nadal is the #1, the holder of the most recent Major, and he's won 3 since Joker's last. Aside from old baggage, I don't see what edge Novak has in this SF. He's still too quick to get disgruntled and distract himself. He'll have to serve lights out and stay focused to win on Friday, and I'm not sure he's ready.

Novak will win because he is the better player on this surface by a good margin. If they play like today, it’s Novak in straights.

 

[Moxie]

Novak will win because he is the better player on this surface by a good margin. If they play like today, it’s Novak in straights.

Not really. He won the '11 final by being in Nadal's head. That was his first grass title, if memory serves. Without that one, Nadal would be ahead at W. And, this is late in the tournament. Nadal is by far the tougher player, mentally, and the one between them that rises much more often to the big moment in a Major. I respect your loyalty, but this won't be a straight-sets match, either way.

 

[Denis]

Not really. He won the '11 final by being in Nadal's head. That was his first grass title, if memory serves. Without that one, Nadal would be ahead at W. And, this is late in the tournament. Nadal is by far the tougher player, mentally, and the one between them that rises much more often to the big moment in a Major. I respect your loyalty, but this won't be a straight-sets match, either way.

You should focus more on the tennis this week than on sportsnarratives. You will see Friday.

 

[Moxie]

You should focus more on the tennis this week than on sportsnarratives. You will see Friday.

Nice response. Look, I won't disagree that Novak is looking sharper than he has in 2 years...I said so. He's getting used to that new service motion, his footwork is better and his shots are crisper. All things being equal, one would favor Djokovic...but they're not. I know you don't like that narrative. Yes, we'll see on Friday.

 

[Denis]

It’s a big test for both for sure. Perhaps even career defining.

 

[Moxie]

It’s a big test for both for sure. Perhaps even career defining.

A great amount on the line for both. A bit more for Djokovic, perhaps, as he really wants to show that he's back on top form and major-winning ways. And Nadal wants to diversify his major resume. And obviously he'd prove a lot by winning Wimbledon again. He has rarely been one to let opportunity slip by him when it knocks. Huge match on Friday. That's why I don't see straight sets either way. They are two great champions and they'll fight for it.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Djokovic should be physically advantage but Nadal has advantage mentally. He looks ready to go to war with Djokovic. This will be either 4 or 5 sets!

Vanos Rafa!

 

[Denis]

A great amount on the line for both. A bit more for Djokovic, perhaps, as he really wants to show that he's back on top form and major-winning ways. And Nadal wants to diversify his major resume. And obviously he'd prove a lot by winning Wimbledon again. He has rarely been one to let opportunity slip by him when it knocks. Huge match on Friday. That's why I don't see straight sets either way. They are two great champions and they'll fight for it.

This will be Nadals last chance at winning Wimbledon and he knows it. Did you notice the weird yelling in the match against towelboy? He’s invested, but perhaps a little too much.

Novak needs this to not let the gap widen further.

 

[Moxie]

While rare, it's not unheard of for Nadal to get tetchy for a bit. Doesn't last, though. For sure he's invested. None of the big boys enters a Major not to win it. I disagree that this is his last chance, though it's a good one that he shouldn't let slip. As for Nole, he not only doesn't want the gap to get wider, he's still trying to prove he's got chops to win Majors. Maybe a bit more baggage. But hey, I'm not going to try to give you, percentage-wise, who has the game edge and who has the mental edge. I think it's pretty tight. I disagree with @brokenshoelace who said on the other thread that Novak wins handily. This ain't 2011. Or even 2015-16.

 

[brokenshoelace]

This will be Nadals last chance at winning Wimbledon and he knows it. Did you notice the weird yelling in the match against towelboy? He’s invested, but perhaps a little too much.

Novak needs this to not let the gap widen further.

Wasn't towards the towel boy. It was towards his box. He spoke in Spanish too. The camera angle made it look like he was yelling at the ball boy. Unless we're talking about two different incidents, one of which I may have missed.

 

[Denis]

Wasn't towards the towel boy. It was towards his box. He spoke in Spanish too. The camera angle made it look like he was yelling at the ball boy. Unless we're talking about two different incidents, one of which I may have missed.

I know. I was saying he was yelling in a match against DP. Not yelling against DP.

What’s your take on this match?

 

[brokenshoelace]

I know. I was saying he was yelling in a match against DP. Not yelling against DP.

What’s your take on this match?

Oh wait, TowelBoy = Del Potro? I thought you mean the boy holding the towel, as in, the ball boy.

I think Novak will win. I'll have a more detailed post in a bit because I think it's fascinating and there are so many question marks. But I think Novak wins, and, if he plays well, could win easier than we'd think.

 

[Denis]

Yes towel boy = DP because he’s towelling off more than playing tennis.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

TBH, I have not seen much of Novak playing in this Wimbledon. But, I did see quite a bit of him in Queens. Novak's movement is very good. I even posted videos to that effect in Halle or Queens thread. But, we never know whether he has a seat at the table with the big boys, until we actually see it happen.

Grass is not even Nishikori's favorite surface and he was not even 100%, yet he managed to take a set off of Novak.

Rafa is definitely in-form and he would not want to let this opportunity to go by. He knows that if he wins Wimbledon at this stage of his career it is a huge thing (somewhat even transcending the GS title count).

I don't know who wins. But, I can say the following.

If the match ends in three sets, winner is Novak.

If the match ends in five sets, winner is Rafa.

If the match ends in four sets, winner is Rafa with 60% chance.

 

[Moxie]

That is a fair assessment, GSM. I appreciate your sticking around to keep us up on lots of things, like rankings implications, especially on a day that must have been disappointing for you.

I do think it will be hard-fought. I'll always back Rafa, but, gun to my head, I'm not sure who wins.

 

[atttomole]

Djokovic will get it done in 4 sets. He does many things better than Nadal on grass. He serves better, returns better and hits the ball well from both wings. He has more flair and he is looking a bit like the Djokovic of old. Nadal exploited Del Potro's backhand, getting slices that he was putting away with his forehand. It was a clear pattern in the match. He will not get that from Djokovic. However, Nadal can win with his physicality and willpower.

 

[rafanoy1992]

One thing about Nadal and some ways Djokovic in this tournament is their mentality in the first five matches. Yes, they were nervous in some moments but it looks like they were prepared to go to war. Nadal was fist pumping a lot against Delpo because he was ready to suffer on the court.

As for Djokovic, he was angry because he knew he is missing a lot easy opportunities.

That’s why it tough to say who will win because they both smell blood right now. They know this is an ideal opportunity to win another slam.

I like GSM assessment. I would go even a step further that set 1 is the key to this match. Whoever wins the first set, will more than likely win the match.

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic will get it done in 4 sets. He does many things better than Nadal on grass. He serves better, returns better and hits the ball well from both wings. He has more flair and he is looking a bit like the Djokovic of old. Nadal exploited Del Potro's backhand, getting slices that he was putting away with his forehand. It was a clear pattern in the match. He will not get that from Djokovic. However, Nadal can win with his physicality and willpower.

Of all of your points, the bolded above is completely subjective. I'm not sure what it means, but if it's winners, Nadal had a better w:ufe ration in his match than Djoker did in his. It seems like you just prefer Novak's style of play. That's fine, but it's not going to sway the match between them.