Rolex Paris Masters 1000, Bercy

[Moxie]

Roger is complaining about his back again? when?.

I don't know if this is the most reliable source, but he does imply the back.

 

[Moxie]

So what this all means is that if Roger had played Paris, and particularly if he had gone fairly deep, he actually would’ve had a legitimate shot at possibly catching Rafa in London? Obviously, this would assume he would win all of his matches in London and would go deeper than Nadal in Paris.

But he has talked about (see above link to Carol) his back and making his choices. He has said he wants to compete for the YEC. You sort of have to trust his choices, based on how he knows his own body and head. (Remembering that Basel is probably more emotional for him that your average 500 would be, as Barcelona is for Nadal.) In the various articles I've read, he feels that his chances at YE#1 are small, and he wants to protect his chances for the WTF. He has in fact even said that he's conceding YE#1 to Nadal.

 

[DarthFed]

That article seems to be talking about his back from a couple months ago. From what I've read he's simply resting for YEC.

 

[DarthFed]

Because Roger is complaining about his back again, because of the way he played today, and yes, because the guys who cause Rafa the most trouble are not available for it. You may call him a "very distant second favorite," which I don't agree with, but 2nd is still a decent shot. Why would you think he doesn't have a decent shot this year?

Roger played fine today, it probably should've been a 6-2, 6-3 type of match but his serve was bad and had lapses with shot selection at inopportune times. Playing like today he will win YEC.

Originally you said "good chance" which is far different from decent chance. I'd say Rafa has more than a puncher's chance but his overall odds are poor unless someone knocks out Roger. Fed is the one player I'd say has very good chance to win YEC. Clearly it's his to lose.

 

[Moxie]

Roger played fine today, it probably should've been a 6-2, 6-3 type of match but his serve was bad and had lapses with shot selection at inopportune times. Playing like today he will win YEC.

Originally you said "good chance" which is far different from decent chance. I'd say Rafa has more than a puncher's chance but his overall odds are poor unless someone knocks out Roger. Fed is the one player I'd say has very good chance to win YEC. Clearly it's his to lose.

Oh, parse words with me if you like. I do think that Rafa has a good chance of winning the YEC. Forgive me if I forgot to reiterate that.

If I remember reading the thread during the match you were pretty disgusted with Roger today, for much of the match, though you always think he should win 6-2, 6-3, or thereabouts. I saw some very fine play from him, and some for JMDP. But Roger's 1st serve pct was woeful. And he himself demonstrated some less-than-sportsmanlike frustration. (I saw him put the net back together at one point, after smacking it with his racquet.) Roger, at this age, can be unpredictable, as to his level.

That said, and given that there's no one else playing the YEC who is better than Nadal, even on indoor HCs, I give him a good chance at winning it. Roger playing del Potro and Roger playing Rafa are not the same thing. I think you'll agree with the logic.

 

[Moxie]

That article seems to be talking about his back from a couple months ago. From what I've read he's simply resting for YEC.

It's hard to decide the attributions, but what about this one?

 

[DarthFed]

It's hard to decide the attributions, but what about this one?

He has to cite some reason instead of just wanting to be fresh for YEC. I saw no signs of a back injury.

 

[DarthFed]

Oh, parse words with me if you like. I do think that Rafa has a good chance of winning the YEC. Forgive me if I forgot to reiterate that.

If I remember reading the thread during the match you were pretty disgusted with Roger today, for much of the match, though you always think he should win 6-2, 6-3, or thereabouts. I saw some very fine play from him, and some for JMDP. But Roger's 1st serve pct was woeful. And he himself demonstrated some less-than-sportsmanlike frustration. (I saw him put the net back together at one point, after smacking it with his racquet.) Roger, at this age, can be unpredictable, as to his level.

That said, and given that there's no one else playing the YEC who is better than Nadal, even on indoor HCs, I give him a good chance at winning it. Roger playing del Potro and Roger playing Rafa are not the same thing. I think you'll agree with the logic.

The way he lost the set was pathetic, and his serve was terrible all day. His return was great and he was hitting the ball well.

Indoors I'd say DP is a tougher matchup for Fed than Rafa is. That's certainly the case historically. I know you are sticking up for your boy but it is Roger's tournament to lose and I think you're kidding yourself if you fancy Rafa's chances without Fed getting upset.

 

[Moxie]

He has to cite some reason instead of just wanting to be fresh for YEC. I saw no signs of a back injury.

Actually, he doesn't. He's reached the age/accomplishment level where he's allowed to drop a fair # of MS. Ok, maybe he did reach it in the clay season. No signs of back? What about his first serve pct?

 

[DarthFed]

Yeah his 1st serve % was bad but his pace was normal and he was moving and hitting very well. I know you'd like him to be injured, that's your best hope

 

[Moxie]

The way he lost the set was pathetic, and his serve was terrible all day. His return was great and he was hitting the ball well.

Indoors I'd say DP is a tougher matchup for Fed than Rafa is. That's certainly the case historically. I know you are sticking up for your boy but it is Roger's tournament to lose and I think you're kidding yourself if you fancy Rafa's chances without Fed getting upset.

I never said that Rafa would win without upsetting Roger at the YEC. I've fully at least implied that Fed's the favorite (which everyone knows.) It just chaps your ass that Rafa is the 2nd favorite, and that he has a chance, at all.

I take your point about delPo on indoor hards, but we all agree he's not the player he was, and, I wonder if you saw him struggling with his own back the other day. It's a bit amazing he made it to the final.

Sure, I back Rafa because he's my guy. And I know this is his worst part of the calendar. I'm only saying that: given the competition, his level, and who's out, he's got more than a decent chance to win. Those in his half, whoever they will be, are really not up to Rafa's level, if he's full strength. And I still believe he can beat Roger on any given day.

 

[Moxie]

Yeah his 1st serve % was bad but his pace was normal and he was moving and hitting very well. I know you'd like him to be injured, that's your best hope

I don't want him to be injured. FFS. It's what's being reported in the press. I still think Rafa beats Roger on most days.

 

[DarthFed]

You think he beats this Roger most days indoors? 1-6 with the lone win being 2013 when his back truly was awful. I'd say that proves otherwise. Maybe Fed's back is bad after today but I didn't see it and what I read is that he knows his body needs a rest. I think he will be fine and if he is...it's past time he won #7 there.

 

[Carol]

What I've read is that he needs to respect his age and after to play 5 matches his body needs some rest to be ready for the WTF

 

[Moxie]

You think he beats this Roger most days indoors? 1-6 with the lone win being 2013 when his back truly was awful. I'd say that proves otherwise. Maybe Fed's back is bad after today but I didn't see it and what I read is that he knows his body needs a rest. I think he will be fine and if he is...it's past time he won #7 there.

Not at all. You are so painful about seeing everything as a binary: either I say this, or I mean its opposite. Enough. We'll just have to wait until the YEC to see how it goes. I've said Roger has the advantage, by surface, for sure. It will take momentum and commitment for Rafa to finally win the YEC. But I think he can.

 

[Moxie]

He sure CAN beat Roger Indoors Carol, just like Roger CAN beat Rafa on clay...but then again but those things happen very rarely , no? Possible...not probable.

Here's a distinction I would make, @Murat Baslamisli. You are talking about a theoretical clay and a theoretical indoor HC. What we have in front of us is an actual situation. Roger is 36, and doesn't sustain the day-to-day he once did, though he's still playing beautifully (of late, and except today.) If they meet at the YEC, it will only be in the final. That's one day. At this age and stage of their careers, there's any reason to believe that the ground rules could change.

 

[isabelle]

poor Forget, his tourney is the Titanic one more time...he really needs to move in a decent calendar's slot, Bercy is much too late in the season

 

[Carol]

We are in Paris now, the WTF will come later.......
Chung will be the Rafa's next opponent, the Corean is a tricky player and probably will give a tough first set to Rafa but he will succumb in the second one

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Chung beating brother Zverev 6-0, 6-2 is not normal. I mean, he is good and all but...

 

[Front242]

Chung beating brother Zverev 6-0, 6-2 is not normal. I mean, he is good and all but...

Yeah, pretty unreal scoreline. Didn't watch it but that's just nuts.