Why is Roger bothering with clay?

[Riotbeard]

Oh I forgot! He beat Raonic yesterday, so he has at least 1.

Second top 10 win. He beat davydenko in 2009.

Andy Murray Top 10 wins

 

[Denis]

I don't think so much we are living in the past to say that Roger should stay in the game. Do we give him more of a shot on clay, if the options are Djokovic/Nadal? No. If they get eliminated, yes. It can happen. Or, as RB posits, what if Djokovic comes through a crushing 5-setter v. Nadal? I think we all agree that he should play Rome, and play himself into shape at RG. We just don't think he should skip them, for the sake of protecting Wimbledon. I thought that was your position, originally.

Moxie--For some reason you try to imply that many posters are "changing their original position" or being inconsistent in their logic. I HAVEN'T changed my position or the point of this thread. I agree with Denisovich who said listed many players who could reasonably beat Roger on clay at this point. And I NEVER said I didn't think Roger should stay in the game---I was strictly speaking about the time/effort he should/shouldn't put into the clay season. I think at this point it's all about managing his body/energy, and not wasting effort where he realistically has little/no chance.

The thing is outside of Rafa and Novak, I would favor Roger against all the players Denis listed except Kei, but he certainly could beat Kei on clay. He would wipe the floor with Ferrer, and is favored against Berdych, Murray, and Raonic. To my knowledge Andy still doesn't even have a top 10 win on clay.

Nobody has great odds outside Rafa or Novak, but Feds are certainly better than most of the field.

All these players have a better track record on clay than Roger for this and last season on clay. Federer is not even getting to the stage that he is playing them so we can't even tell if he would be able to beat them at this point.

He is actually probably just going through the motions, playing just to see what happens. The clay season is basically a training camp for him at this point.

 

[Riotbeard]

Moxie--For some reason you try to imply that many posters are "changing their original position" or being inconsistent in their logic. I HAVEN'T changed my position or the point of this thread. I agree with Denisovich who said listed many players who could reasonably beat Roger on clay at this point. And I NEVER said I didn't think Roger should stay in the game---I was strictly speaking about the time/effort he should/shouldn't put into the clay season. I think at this point it's all about managing his body/energy, and not wasting effort where he realistically has little/no chance.

The thing is outside of Rafa and Novak, I would favor Roger against all the players Denis listed except Kei, but he certainly could beat Kei on clay. He would wipe the floor with Ferrer, and is favored against Berdych, Murray, and Raonic. To my knowledge Andy still doesn't even have a top 10 win on clay.

Nobody has great odds outside Rafa or Novak, but Feds are certainly better than most of the field.

All these players have a better track record on clay than Roger for this and last season on clay. Federer is not even getting to the stage that he is playing them so we can't even tell if he would be able to beat them at this point.

He is actually probably just going through the motions, playing just to see what happens. The clay season is basically a training camp for him at this point.

Your not wrong, I just think when the chips are on the line, I favor Roger at a clay slam over them. He has done it before and he has a bunch of clay titles. We'll see how Andy does against Kei this afternoon. Both he and Rog have won clay 250s and that is about it for the last two years. Semi's at a masters with a #2 seeding isn't that telling about Andy's quality on the surface. He knocked off an injured Milos on his worst surface. Good yes, but let's not turn that into a huge result that supersedes a strong clay career with multiple wins over Novak and Rafa on the surface. Were they a while ago, sure, but they happened. Roger even beat Novak (yes injured) last year at Monte Carlo...

 

[Denis]

I spent some time watching Roger play last week in Istanbul.

I was not impressed. Past results are no guerantee for the future, especially when it comes to Roger who has all his notable results on clay from a very long time ago.

 

[Riotbeard]

I spent some time watching Roger play last week in Istanbul.

I was not impressed. Past results are no guerantee for the future, especially when it comes to Roger who has all his notable results on clay from a very long time ago.

With Andy in particular, and I say this every year, once he proves he's good on clay by grinding out some tough wins over top players then he should be included in the discussion, but he hasn't done that.

I could see putting Roger as the #5 favorite behind Kei and Ferrer. I favor roger over Daveeed if they play, but I would admit Ferrer has a better shot against the rest of the field.

 

[Denis]

I spent some time watching Roger play last week in Istanbul.

I was not impressed. Past results are no guerantee for the future, especially when it comes to Roger who has all his notable results on clay from a very long time ago.

With Andy in particular, and I say this every year, once he proves he's good on clay by grinding out some tough wins over top players then he should be included in the discussion, but he hasn't done that.

I could see putting Roger as the #5 favorite behind Kei and Ferrer. I favor roger over Daveeed if they play, but I would admit Ferrer has a better shot against the rest of the field.

I agree with the Ferrer part. Still think the others have a better shot. Let's wait and see. Would be fun to see if they end up in Federer's half at RG.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

I heard that morph likes watching tennis.

though he should avoid watching clay tourneys..someone might pick him up and try to push him into the claycourt surface.

............and that would be completely unacceptable.

 

[DarthFed]

It'd be foolish to take all or even most of the clay season off. I agree that Roger should not be looking to play too much on clay ahead of grass but playing too little or not at all could be a bigger concern due to rust. On top of that he would lose ranking points and a lower ranking could mean a tougher draw. It would have been ideal for Roger to do well at Madrid and then skip Rome. As it's played out Roger lost right away at MC and Madrid so he's played just 7 matches on clay so far, not too bad.

And there is always that small hope that Roger gets an easy draw and catches fire. Think back to 2013 when he had a ridiculously easy path to the final but was playing so bad that he couldn't capitalize. And Nole almost beat Rafa in a 5 set war so if a scenario like that plays out Roger would suddenly have a chance in the final. Not saying that all of this is likely but you got to play to give yourself a chance.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

clay makes roger laugh. when he plays on clay then the guffaws are sure to follow.

 

[lacatch]

Anyone who saw Fed get broken TWICE when serving for the match against Anderson today can see why I said Fed should keep his sneakers clean for Wimbledon lol. Absolutely went off the tracks, but managed to bring it back and win the second set 7-5 (and the match).

 

[Moxie]

Anyone who saw Fed get broken TWICE when serving for the match against Anderson today can see why I said Fed should keep his sneakers clean for Wimbledon lol. Absolutely went off the tracks, but managed to bring it back and win the second set 7-5 (and the match).

I don't agree with this. Failing to serve it out was not about his clay tennis, but his head. Better to work that out. He looked like an absolute genius for most of that match, and I expect that will be his take-away.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Anyone who saw Fed get broken TWICE when serving for the match against Anderson today can see why I said Fed should keep his sneakers clean for Wimbledon lol. Absolutely went off the tracks, but managed to bring it back and win the second set 7-5 (and the match).

You have to take into account that tennis is Roger's job . It is not just some fun activity. That win over Anderson probably paid a good chunk of Severin's salary.

 

[lacatch]

Anyone who saw Fed get broken TWICE when serving for the match against Anderson today can see why I said Fed should keep his sneakers clean for Wimbledon lol. Absolutely went off the tracks, but managed to bring it back and win the second set 7-5 (and the match).

I don't agree with this. Failing to serve it out was not about his clay tennis, but his head. Better to work that out. He looked like an absolute genius for most of that match, and I expect that will be his take-away.

Moxie--I would say that "genius" is hyperbolic. And he was playing against Kevin Anderson who is basically a decent player with a great serve, and Roger has historically gotten the best of big servers (like Roddick whom he owned). I also disagree that failure to serve it out had nothing to do with his playing clay court tennis. Of course a walkabout is mental, but on faster surfaces (where he has the best chance these days) he has more tools to work with and be more competitive. And BTW--I like Roger!

 

[Moxie]

Anyone who saw Fed get broken TWICE when serving for the match against Anderson today can see why I said Fed should keep his sneakers clean for Wimbledon lol. Absolutely went off the tracks, but managed to bring it back and win the second set 7-5 (and the match).

I don't agree with this. Failing to serve it out was not about his clay tennis, but his head. Better to work that out. He looked like an absolute genius for most of that match, and I expect that will be his take-away.

Moxie--I would say that "genius" is hyperbolic. And he was playing against Kevin Anderson who is basically a decent player with a great serve, and Roger has historically gotten the best of big servers (like Roddick whom he owned). I also disagree that failure to serve it out had nothing to do with his playing clay court tennis. Of course a walkabout is mental, but on faster surfaces (where he has the best chance these days) he has more tools to work with and be more competitive. And BTW--I like Roger!

Yes, "genius" is hyperbolic, but did you see that match? He was astonishing for the first 7/8ths of it. We can agree to disagree on why he failed to serve it out. He was playing Anderson, so I don't think it was about the clay. I understand that he has better tools for faster surfaces, but this was mental lapse, in my opinion. No worries, though, he did right the ship. (PS: The fact that you like Roger is no news flash.)

 

[BalaryKar]

Feds expectations from FO is quite realistic. He wants to reach the QF, especially after the Seppi shock at the AO. The best-of-five fitness test/preparedness he won't ever get in the masters and 250's and FO gives him the platform. Also, his pride, not ego, comes in his way of skipping a slam.

He is very realistic about the expectations and remember how easily he forgot about the loss to Nole in the masters finals. If he can manage to win a masters or be even in slam semis, that would exceed his expectations. I think deep down he knows the slams are 90% a thing of the past.

 

[Kieran]

Basically Roger is "dealing with clay" because he's not a quitter. He has the time and the energy and the patience. So why not?

 

[Riotbeard]

Basically Roger is "dealing with clay" because he's not a quitter. He has the time and the energy and the patience. So why not?

He also just smashed Berdych on clay.

 

[El Dude]

That's why he bothers.

Seriously though, the question could be asked of any member not of the Big Four: why bother? Why does Berdych or Tsonga or Ferrer still bother? Two things:

One, the game isn't only about winning Slams and big tournaments. It is also about making money and playing for the joy of it.

Two, there's always a chance. While it seems very unlikely that the players mentioned above will ever win a Slam, it COULD happen. Who would have thought Marin Cilic would have a Slam title and those guys wouldn't? There are plenty of players better than Cilic who never won a Slam: not just those three above, but David Nalbandian, Nikolay Davydenko, Marcelo Rios, Alex Corretja, etc etc. If I'm Tomas Berdych or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga I look at Cilic and Wawrinka and think, I could do that.

Roger has reasons in both categories. He's making lots of money, enjoys playing the game, and still has a chance to win almost any title. Certainly he's a long-shot for the French Open, but he's still a better bet than only a small handful of players to win.

 

[brokenshoelace]

That's why he bothers.

Seriously though, the question could be asked of any member not of the Big Four: why bother? Why does Berdych or Tsonga or Ferrer still bother? Two things:

One, the game isn't only about winning Slams and big tournaments. It is also about making money and playing for the joy of it.

Two, there's always a chance. While it seems very unlikely that the players mentioned above will ever win a Slam, it COULD happen. Who would have thought Marin Cilic would have a Slam title and those guys wouldn't? There are plenty of players better than Cilic who never won a Slam: not just those three above, but David Nalbandian, Nikolay Davydenko, Marcelo Rios, Alex Corretja, etc etc. If I'm Tomas Berdych or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga I look at Cilic and Wawrinka and think, I could do that.

Roger has reasons in both categories. He's making lots of money, enjoys playing the game, and still has a chance to win almost any title. Certainly he's a long-shot for the French Open, but he's still a better bet than only a small handful of players to win.

All of this and the fact that he's Roger Federer.

 

[lacatch]

MEA CULPA MEA CULPA. After seeing Roger's performance against Berdych and his dismantling Wawrinka (who was drained from his big victory last night over Nadal), I DO see why Rogers plays on clay. I think he has a real shot against Novak tomorrow .