[Jonathan Northrop] Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern?
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Riotbeard
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
Interesting stats although it leaves out a lot of contexts. I think Novak is having a better spring overall than last year. This is a gut level novak fan interpretation. To me beating Nadal on clay this season is bigger than loosing to dimitrov or Berdych. This is a very subjective perspective His highest levels have been higher (excluding maybe the 2012 AO final, maybe the last appearance of 2011 Novak). His monte carlo win was more impressive than Miami. On the other hand his lows have been lower too this year. It just depends on what his strategy is. Are Monte Carlo and F.O. the big goals? How much is he invested in Madrid as a important tournament? I think yesterday we just saw Berdych have a career day, nothing too worrying as a Novak fan.
I do think you're right that Nadal is the biggestt threat to the number 1 ranking.
Interesting stats although it leaves out a lot of contexts. I think Novak is having a better spring overall than last year. This is a gut level novak fan interpretation. To me beating Nadal on clay this season is bigger than loosing to dimitrov or Berdych. This is a very subjective perspective His highest levels have been higher (excluding maybe the 2012 AO final, maybe the last appearance of 2011 Novak). His monte carlo win was more impressive than Miami. On the other hand his lows have been lower too this year. It just depends on what his strategy is. Are Monte Carlo and F.O. the big goals? How much is he invested in Madrid as a important tournament? I think yesterday we just saw Berdych have a career day, nothing too worrying as a Novak fan.
I do think you're right that Nadal is the biggestt threat to the number 1 ranking.
JesuslookslikeBorg
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
nadal usually falls away in the autumn,
cant see anything changing with his dodgy knees...djokovic stays world no 1 rank.
nadal usually falls away in the autumn,
cant see anything changing with his dodgy knees...djokovic stays world no 1 rank.
DarthFed
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
Aside from Monte Carlo he has had some disastrous results starting in Indian Wells. And I doubt it is a lack of motivation as Nole is not even 26 yet. These are his salad years where he doesn't have to worry about energy levels too much. A win at Madrid or Rome, especially if it had come with a H2H victory over Nadal, would have made him at least co-favorite at RG if not outright. Now you have to seriously wonder if he might trip up at RG before getting to Nadal.
That said, these are just a few bad losses and everyone has them once in awhile. And maybe it won't mean anything come RG and he cruises. And Monte Carlo was a big deal and undoubtedly helps if he were to face Rafa at RG. Also Nole won the only major so far. It's still way too early to talk of him having a poor year.
Aside from Monte Carlo he has had some disastrous results starting in Indian Wells. And I doubt it is a lack of motivation as Nole is not even 26 yet. These are his salad years where he doesn't have to worry about energy levels too much. A win at Madrid or Rome, especially if it had come with a H2H victory over Nadal, would have made him at least co-favorite at RG if not outright. Now you have to seriously wonder if he might trip up at RG before getting to Nadal.
That said, these are just a few bad losses and everyone has them once in awhile. And maybe it won't mean anything come RG and he cruises. And Monte Carlo was a big deal and undoubtedly helps if he were to face Rafa at RG. Also Nole won the only major so far. It's still way too early to talk of him having a poor year.
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
I'm not saying he's going to have a poor year--unless 2011 is the standard, which it shouldn't be--just that he's not as clearly the best player in the game, especially with Rafa playing the way he is. The key for Rafa is Wimbledon - he COULD win the US Open but I'd say he's the 3rd or 4th favorite to do so. And we all know he doesn't fare so well in the Fall. But if he wins both Wimby and RG and does decently the rest of the year, he could have enough points to pull it off.
Its interesting to think that half a year ago we were talking about the beginning of the 'Djoray' Era, now it looks more like the Djodal Era.
I'm not saying he's going to have a poor year--unless 2011 is the standard, which it shouldn't be--just that he's not as clearly the best player in the game, especially with Rafa playing the way he is. The key for Rafa is Wimbledon - he COULD win the US Open but I'd say he's the 3rd or 4th favorite to do so. And we all know he doesn't fare so well in the Fall. But if he wins both Wimby and RG and does decently the rest of the year, he could have enough points to pull it off.
Its interesting to think that half a year ago we were talking about the beginning of the 'Djoray' Era, now it looks more like the Djodal Era.
huntingyou
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
Nope
Let's wait after RG....even if he loses there to Rafa; chances are he will be the favorite for #1 ranking. Having said that, if the body doesn't betray Rafa...Wimbledon looks quite possible, then you'll have to worry about Novak's #1 ranking.
2011-Present......has always been Djodal Era. It's a matter of health of course since Murray never surpassed Nadal tennis wise.
Nope
Let's wait after RG....even if he loses there to Rafa; chances are he will be the favorite for #1 ranking. Having said that, if the body doesn't betray Rafa...Wimbledon looks quite possible, then you'll have to worry about Novak's #1 ranking.
El Dude said:
2011-Present......has always been Djodal Era. It's a matter of health of course since Murray never surpassed Nadal tennis wise.
RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
I kind of like this talk about Nole's demise.
For the record, I think that he will bounce back nicely. Yeah he's had some unfortunate defeats, but they were not in majors and he did have physical issues. The main issue for him is now getting in the right physical shape and letting go of the fear that he will re-injure his ankle. His movement is the #1 thing for him, so if he is timid, it will show in his play.
In 2011 he beat Rafa twice on clay both in finals only to fall short in the most important tournament on clay. I am not concerned about these past losses, as long as he prepares well for RG. He is a smart guy and he learns from his mistakes. I have faith in him to give his all when necessary. Idemo Nole!!!
I kind of like this talk about Nole's demise.
For the record, I think that he will bounce back nicely. Yeah he's had some unfortunate defeats, but they were not in majors and he did have physical issues. The main issue for him is now getting in the right physical shape and letting go of the fear that he will re-injure his ankle. His movement is the #1 thing for him, so if he is timid, it will show in his play.
In 2011 he beat Rafa twice on clay both in finals only to fall short in the most important tournament on clay. I am not concerned about these past losses, as long as he prepares well for RG. He is a smart guy and he learns from his mistakes. I have faith in him to give his all when necessary. Idemo Nole!!!
Kieran
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
Novak's keeping his powder dry. I fancy him in Paris, to raise his game at least. If Nadal reaches his own peaks, Novak will still put on a brave show in the final. But he has his crucial pre-Christmas training in his satchel, that's the engine room for hard tasks through the year. He's got what he wanted from clay so far - in Monte Carlo - and he won't lack motivation or game in Paris.
Rumours of his demise, etc...
Novak's keeping his powder dry. I fancy him in Paris, to raise his game at least. If Nadal reaches his own peaks, Novak will still put on a brave show in the final. But he has his crucial pre-Christmas training in his satchel, that's the engine room for hard tasks through the year. He's got what he wanted from clay so far - in Monte Carlo - and he won't lack motivation or game in Paris.
Rumours of his demise, etc...
RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
And I should add that all of his losses were to guys who really played extremely well. Sometimes you just have to accept that guys were better on a particular day and move on.
And I should add that all of his losses were to guys who really played extremely well. Sometimes you just have to accept that guys were better on a particular day and move on.
RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
I honestly don't know what to think. I can buy into the theory that Novak really cares about the slams, so don't sweat the recent losses at Masters. I am bothered by the Rome loss though---Berdych started playing out of his mind, but ONLY after Novak let him back in. He seems to be the most emotional player of the big 3, and gets into funks which absolutely affect his play. You rarely see that with Roger or Rafa. I also think he had a good shot at beating Nadal in the semis at Rome (NO letdown when he plays Rafa!) which would have put him in a better position/mindset for Roland Garros. But in the end, I believe he WILL be in top shape for the French, and will come out firing on all cylinders. We'll see......
I honestly don't know what to think. I can buy into the theory that Novak really cares about the slams, so don't sweat the recent losses at Masters. I am bothered by the Rome loss though---Berdych started playing out of his mind, but ONLY after Novak let him back in. He seems to be the most emotional player of the big 3, and gets into funks which absolutely affect his play. You rarely see that with Roger or Rafa. I also think he had a good shot at beating Nadal in the semis at Rome (NO letdown when he plays Rafa!) which would have put him in a better position/mindset for Roland Garros. But in the end, I believe he WILL be in top shape for the French, and will come out firing on all cylinders. We'll see......
JesuslookslikeBorg
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
novak switched off mentally..then berdych went into overdrive and couldn't be stopped..
sometimes big comebacks happen, its not a big deal for djoko, he just thought he'd won before he had.
no need for him to scrath his egg shaped chin for too long though.
novak switched off mentally..then berdych went into overdrive and couldn't be stopped..
sometimes big comebacks happen, its not a big deal for djoko, he just thought he'd won before he had.
no need for him to scrath his egg shaped chin for too long though.
brokenshoelace
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
Am I the only one who realizes that Novak still has a decent shot at winning RG, completing his career slam, and be 2 from 2 in majors this year?
Am I the only one who realizes that Novak still has a decent shot at winning RG, completing his career slam, and be 2 from 2 in majors this year?
RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
In some way loosing to Berdy is not bad result. Berdy is a solid player and has Nadal as his worst nightmare. There is nothing that Berd can do to solve the Nadal problem. On the other hand, if Nole had won against Nadal at Rome, it would be the best preparation for FO. OTOH, a loss would have completely handed over all the momentum to Nadal heading into FO. FO is just more interesting that the Nole-Nadal match will still be the enigma that is waiting to explode.
An interesting side-note: Apart from AO which is Noles best surface, Nole has first lost to Nadal at Wimby and USO before beating him there to win his first slam at those places. Now, he has already lost multi-times to Nadal. So here is chance for Nole to win FO. :blush:
In some way loosing to Berdy is not bad result. Berdy is a solid player and has Nadal as his worst nightmare. There is nothing that Berd can do to solve the Nadal problem. On the other hand, if Nole had won against Nadal at Rome, it would be the best preparation for FO. OTOH, a loss would have completely handed over all the momentum to Nadal heading into FO. FO is just more interesting that the Nole-Nadal match will still be the enigma that is waiting to explode.
An interesting side-note: Apart from AO which is Noles best surface, Nole has first lost to Nadal at Wimby and USO before beating him there to win his first slam at those places. Now, he has already lost multi-times to Nadal. So here is chance for Nole to win FO. :blush:
Moxie
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
I hardly think so. I'm pretty sure Nole's fans have been paying attention. And if he wins RG, we'll be having a BIG calendar-slam conversation.
I take Dude's original point that, on paper, it looks like results have dropped off, but I don't think it tells us anything about how the rest of the year will go. The one thing I WILL point out is that Rafa has nothing to defend after the 2nd round at Wimbledon, and that could be a factor. If he even features reasonably well in the 2nd half of the year, it's all found-points, so that might effect the rankings.
Broken_Shoelace said:
I hardly think so. I'm pretty sure Nole's fans have been paying attention. And if he wins RG, we'll be having a BIG calendar-slam conversation.
I take Dude's original point that, on paper, it looks like results have dropped off, but I don't think it tells us anything about how the rest of the year will go. The one thing I WILL point out is that Rafa has nothing to defend after the 2nd round at Wimbledon, and that could be a factor. If he even features reasonably well in the 2nd half of the year, it's all found-points, so that might effect the rankings.
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
I also think Novak has a good chance at RG and if he wins it then we can start talking seriously about the calendar Slam given that RG vs. Rafa is his biggest obstacle.
As Moxie said, I was only pointing out that Novak's results through Rome have declined each year from 2011-13. It isn't saying that he is falling apart or even declining; 2011 was a career year, one of the all-time great seasons of the Open Era, but Novak doesn't seem to be any less of a player than he's been since late 2011 when he was already starting to relax from his ridiculous play of most of the year and Roger started to win tournaments again.
As far as the rest of the year goes, I think Novak and Rafa are about equal and the two players to beat. Roger and Andy are a solid step below them and may be roughly similar, especially if Roger can maintain his Rome form. But I was expecting Rafa to take a step back this year and struggle a bit, which he hasn't done. Given Rafa's comeback, and that Novak has proven beatable to other non-elite players, Novak just seems more mortal to me now.
I also think Novak has a good chance at RG and if he wins it then we can start talking seriously about the calendar Slam given that RG vs. Rafa is his biggest obstacle.
As Moxie said, I was only pointing out that Novak's results through Rome have declined each year from 2011-13. It isn't saying that he is falling apart or even declining; 2011 was a career year, one of the all-time great seasons of the Open Era, but Novak doesn't seem to be any less of a player than he's been since late 2011 when he was already starting to relax from his ridiculous play of most of the year and Roger started to win tournaments again.
As far as the rest of the year goes, I think Novak and Rafa are about equal and the two players to beat. Roger and Andy are a solid step below them and may be roughly similar, especially if Roger can maintain his Rome form. But I was expecting Rafa to take a step back this year and struggle a bit, which he hasn't done. Given Rafa's comeback, and that Novak has proven beatable to other non-elite players, Novak just seems more mortal to me now.
RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
I believe that Nole winning RG is long overdue, thanks in a large part to Rafa not being bored of winning it. It is mere a accident that Nole has won Wimbledon earlier and that he should have actually won FO first and then Wimby. It is a long cry for Nole's calender grand slam even if he wins FO. Looking at the current affairs, Nole for me at least is 4th favorite to win Wimby with Fedalarry in the Top 3 in no particular order.
I believe that Nole winning RG is long overdue, thanks in a large part to Rafa not being bored of winning it. It is mere a accident that Nole has won Wimbledon earlier and that he should have actually won FO first and then Wimby. It is a long cry for Nole's calender grand slam even if he wins FO. Looking at the current affairs, Nole for me at least is 4th favorite to win Wimby with Fedalarry in the Top 3 in no particular order.
JesuslookslikeBorg
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
is this a surreal thread or what ??..the comedy corner :huh:
djokovic is nearly 4'000 rank points ahead of murray, hmmm yes..really struggling he is. :s
is this a surreal thread or what ??..the comedy corner :huh:
djokovic is nearly 4'000 rank points ahead of murray, hmmm yes..really struggling he is. :s
Johnsteinbeck
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
die you even read the post, or did ya stop at the title? it's a fair breakdown of nole 's results. and atm, Murray is far from the one threatening to take #1. novak has a comfortable lead mainly because his first two pursuers had even worse spring results than he does. Rafa on the other hand hasn't missed a final since he's back, and is gaining a lot of ground even with half a year missing. that said, of course fall will be another question, and hardcourts in general (although afair he did rather well at the one us hc event he played). i reckon wimbledon will be decisive. if Rafa outdoes Novak there, nole could still keep the ye#1, but once they're in Oz...
as i said elsewhere - this is getting way ahead of ourselves, of course. nonetheless, it is the current state of affairs and a visible trend. Dude did well to point out the significant falloff compared to not just 11 but 12 as well.
JesuslookslikeBorg. said:
die you even read the post, or did ya stop at the title? it's a fair breakdown of nole 's results. and atm, Murray is far from the one threatening to take #1. novak has a comfortable lead mainly because his first two pursuers had even worse spring results than he does. Rafa on the other hand hasn't missed a final since he's back, and is gaining a lot of ground even with half a year missing. that said, of course fall will be another question, and hardcourts in general (although afair he did rather well at the one us hc event he played). i reckon wimbledon will be decisive. if Rafa outdoes Novak there, nole could still keep the ye#1, but once they're in Oz...
as i said elsewhere - this is getting way ahead of ourselves, of course. nonetheless, it is the current state of affairs and a visible trend. Dude did well to point out the significant falloff compared to not just 11 but 12 as well.
herios
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RE: Djokovic: 2011-13...signs of concern? And will he finish #1 this year?
Not at all. We never lost faith. This Rome was was an unexpected incident, and I know he was ipset with himself for that, because it was his undoing, not forcusing when he should've.
Broken_Shoelace said:
Not at all. We never lost faith. This Rome was was an unexpected incident, and I know he was ipset with himself for that, because it was his undoing, not forcusing when he should've.