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[Jonathan Northrop] Rafael Nadal - From Peak to Plateau
- Thread starter El Dude
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Kieran
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RE: Rafael Nadal - From Peak to Plateau
Good stuff, brother. I'll respond more tomorrow but I like your analytic way of looking at things. There are things to haggle with, but these are statistics, which draw a different picture. I appreciate these, because they help us see patterns, which are relevant, no matter how we spin it... :clap
Good stuff, brother. I'll respond more tomorrow but I like your analytic way of looking at things. There are things to haggle with, but these are statistics, which draw a different picture. I appreciate these, because they help us see patterns, which are relevant, no matter how we spin it... :clap
Riotbeard
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RE: Rafael Nadal - From Peak to Plateau
Very interesting analysis Dude. Tough to figure out what Rafa could do. It's a very small sample size, but it's not like there are too many more candidates to add. There is also a lot of variation between these players, so Rafa could potentially go a few more year at peak, although I would not be surprised if you are right.
Very interesting analysis Dude. Tough to figure out what Rafa could do. It's a very small sample size, but it's not like there are too many more candidates to add. There is also a lot of variation between these players, so Rafa could potentially go a few more year at peak, although I would not be surprised if you are right.
RE: Rafael Nadal - From Peak to Plateau
El Dude--very well written article--thanks for posting it. The only thing I would like to consider is the relatively high mileage on Rafa due to his playing style--historically his knees especially. That would add further credence to your hypothesis that Rafa is starting to plateau--and might suggest winning fewer additional slams than Roger and Pete during a similar age period.
El Dude--very well written article--thanks for posting it. The only thing I would like to consider is the relatively high mileage on Rafa due to his playing style--historically his knees especially. That would add further credence to your hypothesis that Rafa is starting to plateau--and might suggest winning fewer additional slams than Roger and Pete during a similar age period.
Moxie
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RE: Rafael Nadal - From Peak to Plateau
If you take El Dude's definition of "peak," or that of most, I think he's unlikely to have another year like '08, '10 or '13. However, I think we see that high water marks are still possible. It will just be less consistent. I'm willing to buy that, and that generally, he's at "plateau," meaning that would still plays to a certain level. It makes sense, and plays out, historically.
Riotbeard said:
If you take El Dude's definition of "peak," or that of most, I think he's unlikely to have another year like '08, '10 or '13. However, I think we see that high water marks are still possible. It will just be less consistent. I'm willing to buy that, and that generally, he's at "plateau," meaning that would still plays to a certain level. It makes sense, and plays out, historically.
JesuslookslikeBorg
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:
JesuslookslikeBorg
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RE: Rafael Nadal - From Peak to Plateau
rafa's attritional style is oft mentioned..also he has played around 20 matches fewer than ferrer who plays a similar style to rafa (ferrer nearly 4 yrs older)
often folk claim laver was world no1 in 1970 was he still in peak phase in 1970 ?..at that time we had 3 or 4 tours going and players skipped this n that. or were banned. he won 5 of the 9 masters equivalent in 1970 which was first year of those 9 events (record with Connors/djoko/nadal) and was rated no1 by some end of year tennis scribes. but won no majors (lost shock 1970 wimb qf, ending wimb 35ish unbeaten grass run. other claim lavers peak was 1967 but that might be "peak peak" rather than "general peak"
styles of play, matches played, tourneys won are part of the hidden puzzle..like in 1977 a lot say vilas was world no1 but he played a ton of clay tourneys full of zero's and won the french open cos borg wasn't there. (some tourneys of which were not awarded rank pts).
rafa's attritional style is oft mentioned..also he has played around 20 matches fewer than ferrer who plays a similar style to rafa (ferrer nearly 4 yrs older)
often folk claim laver was world no1 in 1970 was he still in peak phase in 1970 ?..at that time we had 3 or 4 tours going and players skipped this n that. or were banned. he won 5 of the 9 masters equivalent in 1970 which was first year of those 9 events (record with Connors/djoko/nadal) and was rated no1 by some end of year tennis scribes. but won no majors (lost shock 1970 wimb qf, ending wimb 35ish unbeaten grass run. other claim lavers peak was 1967 but that might be "peak peak" rather than "general peak"
styles of play, matches played, tourneys won are part of the hidden puzzle..like in 1977 a lot say vilas was world no1 but he played a ton of clay tourneys full of zero's and won the french open cos borg wasn't there. (some tourneys of which were not awarded rank pts).
Federberg
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RE: Rafael Nadal - From Peak to Plateau
I guess we're going to start going thru the same thing with Rafa that we've seen with Roger. Everyone will start trying to call the end to his career. For me.. what makes these guys so special is how they rage against the dying of the light. Still... if Rafa doesn't win RG things will start to look very bad.. Until that happens I can't even call myself agnostic...
I guess we're going to start going thru the same thing with Rafa that we've seen with Roger. Everyone will start trying to call the end to his career. For me.. what makes these guys so special is how they rage against the dying of the light. Still... if Rafa doesn't win RG things will start to look very bad.. Until that happens I can't even call myself agnostic...
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RE: Rafael Nadal - From Peak to Plateau
As Moxie pointed out, I'm differentiating "Peak" and "Plateau" and also "Plateau" and "Decline." Peak is a level of performance consistently above career averages, especially with regards to winning percentage, while Plateau is still very good but closer to career averages, and Decline is a sharp fall.
So, for instance, Roger's plateau range also included one year--2012--that was solidly above his career average (86% vs. 81% career), but not nearly as high as his 2004-2007 peak (88-95%). It looked like he was entering Decline in 2013, but he has since righted himself and seems to be hanging out in Plateau for a bit longer.
It is also different by player. Roger's best three years by winning percentage--2004-2006--are considerably better (93, 95, 95) than the rest of his career (81), while Rafa's best years, 2008/10/13 (88, 88, 91) don't stand out as sharply (82).
But the point being, what I am calling Plateau is not steep or even clear Decline. It is a stabilization of a high level of play "post-peak" but not as consistently good as a player's performance at their best.
As an aside, one could argue that Djokovic had only one peak year (2011, 92%) but I think there's a difference between "ultimate peak" - which could be a player's very best year - and "peak phase," which is a period of at least a few years. Novak is still in his peak phase, as evidenced by his winning percentages over the last few years: 92, 86, 89, 86 vs. 80.6% career.
As Moxie pointed out, I'm differentiating "Peak" and "Plateau" and also "Plateau" and "Decline." Peak is a level of performance consistently above career averages, especially with regards to winning percentage, while Plateau is still very good but closer to career averages, and Decline is a sharp fall.
So, for instance, Roger's plateau range also included one year--2012--that was solidly above his career average (86% vs. 81% career), but not nearly as high as his 2004-2007 peak (88-95%). It looked like he was entering Decline in 2013, but he has since righted himself and seems to be hanging out in Plateau for a bit longer.
It is also different by player. Roger's best three years by winning percentage--2004-2006--are considerably better (93, 95, 95) than the rest of his career (81), while Rafa's best years, 2008/10/13 (88, 88, 91) don't stand out as sharply (82).
But the point being, what I am calling Plateau is not steep or even clear Decline. It is a stabilization of a high level of play "post-peak" but not as consistently good as a player's performance at their best.
As an aside, one could argue that Djokovic had only one peak year (2011, 92%) but I think there's a difference between "ultimate peak" - which could be a player's very best year - and "peak phase," which is a period of at least a few years. Novak is still in his peak phase, as evidenced by his winning percentages over the last few years: 92, 86, 89, 86 vs. 80.6% career.
RE: Rafael Nadal - From Peak to Plateau
You've been chomping at the bit to write this article for a very long time, haven't you? LOL.
El Dude said:
You've been chomping at the bit to write this article for a very long time, haven't you? LOL.
RE: [Blog] Rafael Nadal - From Peak to Plateau
Great reading, but now at this date I'm thinking "Plateau" isn't the right word :cry
Great reading, but now at this date I'm thinking "Plateau" isn't the right word :cry
El Dude said:
Well, I hope that El Dude and everyone who liked this post re-visit their premature panic attack over Nadal's losses to Ferrer and Almagro.
shawnbm
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The more time passes and Nadal keeps winning, the more I question if he is not the one to trump a lot of preconceived notions about age in tennis. Barring injury or the rise of another, I can see Nadal being a challenger at every major for another two years at least based on current form and the current crop of players who might try and take him down before the quarters. (I don't see many who can). In other words, I think he may have two or three more majors to contest for in that period. then again, when Federer won the 2010 AO, I surely thought he had a lot more in him as well. He has only bagged the 2012 SW19 Championship since then. No way of determining how precipitous the slide will be for a given player, but Rafael Nadal is proving a lot of folks wrong.