Early Talk about Roland Garros

[GameSetAndMath]

At any rate, I must admit that it is impressive that Nadal came up on top top again despite
a dismal warm-up season as per his standards. Of course, the fact that most of the other
top players played only 2 tourneys, mitigates the astonishment little bit, but it is still
impressive.

 

[Moxie]

The problem is there are three clay seasons in the ATP calendar

1. A bunch of (primarily SA) tourneys that acts as a warm up to Indian Wells. :laydownlaughing

2. Clay tourney after Miami that act as a warm up to RG.

3. Post RG Clay tourneys that act as a warm up to USO. :laydownlaughing

If I remember right there even used to be clay tourney after USO in the not so distant past.

When you are trying to use the clay points as a predictor for RG, it makes sense to use
only item 2 above.

There is a problem, as I see it, as to how you categorize the So. American Swing. It's not a warm up to IW. It's a warm up for the (mostly) also-rans and clay-courters to gain points and to gain position for the European clay swing.

The main events in Europe are tune-ups for the elite players, but it doesn't minimalize the jockeying for position that goes on before, including in So. America.

On your #3, I believe we agree: Post Wimbledon, clay events are just ways for some players to bolster their point count. Same with the post-Wimbledon grass events that no big players go to.

You are still missing the point. There are also events for Tom, Dick and Harry during the
actual warmup season for RG such as Bucharest, Oeiras etc. The differentiation is not based
on elite/non-elite. It is based on whether it is reasonable to expect a performance in a clay
tournament as a predictor for RG performance. Kamakshi's totals include not just main
events and also side events as long as they happen after Miami and before RG.

I'm not missing the point…we're disagreeing. I think the Golden Swing should be taken into account in terms of factoring in who might feature at RG, (not to win, mind, but to cause trouble.) You don't. Why is it important for clay results to happen only after Miami? They ARE clay results in the current season, and leading up to RG. Otherwise, you relegate the So. American swing to a point-gathering ghetto, with no relevance. You don't think that all those Spaniards and Argentines, etc. who play down there aren't jockeying for a better position come Oeiras, Casablanca, and then the main events? Personally, I believe that's exactly what they're doing. And so their clay points should count. But it's not just the rankings. My broader point is looking at who is playing well on clay, across the season. If we do it for HCs, why shouldn't we do it for clay? People will be looking back to Doha and Dubai the whole rest of the year. Should they also have a cut-off for relevance?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

We don't do it for hard courts either. For AO, we count only the two weeks before that
as an indication of player's form going into AO.

Similarly, we count only USO series tournaments (the Cincy and Canada Masters,
other sundry tournaments such as Washington, Atlanta etc) as an indication of the
form of players going into US Open.

 

[Moxie]

^ I would really challenge that notion. Going into the AO, everyone was talking about how well Novak had done v. Rafa in late 2013. We talk about not only the tune-ups and past tourneys on different surfaces, but also we bleed back into the past year. Everyone gaming Stan for the RG is talking about the AO as much if not more about his MC win. And I don't know how many people have brought up Novak's past 4 wins over Rafa, even though only 2 are this year and only one is on clay. Those gaming Roger are talking about his whole year, which has started out better than 2013, and are not excluding their remarks to clay.

Therefore, I go back to my point: if you want to talk about how players are doing on clay, and this year, it seems to me blinkered to skip the results in So. America.

 

[tented]

My broader point is looking at who is playing well on clay, across the season. If we do it for HCs, why shouldn't we do it for clay? People will be looking back to Doha and Dubai the whole rest of the year. Should they also have a cut-off for relevance?

To answer your final question first -- yes. Only so much can be accurately gleaned by looking all the way back to Doha when trying to predict results for the USO. That was too long ago. Too much will have happened since. Players get injured. They go through coaching changes. They go through various ups and downs based on mid-year results.

There are certain near-constants, but not enough to use such early year results when taking into account all players for a tournament which occurs 8 months later.

On a smaller scale, the same goes for the So. American swing. It finishes in late February, then Casablanca and Houston begin the second week of April. In between are two hard-court Masters and Davis Cup. The idea of using only post-Miami clay results in the kind of predictions Kamakshi is making makes sense, in that it's a sustained period when everyone is on the same surface, during a time period immediately leading up to RG.

 

[Moxie]

^ I think where you and GSM misunderstand me is that I'm not talking about "everyone," in the sense of the top guys. I'm looking at the field. I'm looking at the guys who don't have a chance to play the elites in every tournament, but find their confidence in these lesser tournaments, and then turn themselves into threats, at least to some extent. I'm saying: look there for the threat. When David Ferrer was looking to get himself back to a top place, he gained a lot of points and confidence in So. America. Which worked out for him. And I'm not saying that Santiago Giraldo or Guillermo Garcia Lopez are going to take the French Open, but just look to where the threats are, when you examine the draw.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Oh, Boy. Do some folks think changing Avtar will have an effect on Rafa's form?. uzzled

I don't know, does repeating over and over that Nadal will lose to "unnamed player" make it any more likely?

That's right villagers, get your pitchforks out, somebody isn't a fan of Rafa :angel:

...that's hardly the point.

 

[brokenshoelace]

^ I would really challenge that notion. Going into the AO, everyone was talking about how well Novak had done v. Rafa in late 2013. We talk about not only the tune-ups and past tourneys on different surfaces, but also we bleed back into the past year. Everyone gaming Stan for the RG is talking about the AO as much if not more about his MC win. And I don't know how many people have brought up Novak's past 4 wins over Rafa, even though only 2 are this year and only one is on clay. Those gaming Roger are talking about his whole year, which has started out better than 2013, and are not excluding their remarks to clay.

Therefore, I go back to my point: if you want to talk about how players are doing on clay, and this year, it seems to me blinkered to skip the results in So. America.

OK, say we don't skip the results in South America, how does it influence the discussion in any way other than technicalities (ie the amount of points Nadal has amassed), because if anything, it reinforces Nadal's vulnerability given how shaky he looked in winning that South American tournament.

I bring this up because you too seem to be arguing over something that literally doesn't change anything as far as the arguments itself. The narrative leading up to the FO is that Nadal is vulnerable on clay for the first time in...pretty much forever (except for maybe 2011). If you look at the golden swing, what does it change? So what's the point of the argument? To talk about other guys' chances? I guess that's fair, but SPOILER: They have none.

 

[Moxie]

^ My point wasn't about Nadal. Which I said. *sigh*

 

[brokenshoelace]

^ My point wasn't about Nadal. Which I said. *sigh*

OK, so who are these players we should give more consideration to based on the golden swing?

 

[Moxie]

^When I realized the list GSM put up included Oueiras and Morocco already, it didn't change as much as I had thought. However, as you know, I like a draw challenge, so I like to know how some of the guys are playing on clay over the "whole" season, so I can make better early round picks. Jeremy Chardy has had some decent results this year, including on clay, making QFs in Viña del Mar and Buenos Aires. As has Leonardo Mayer, who lost in the Final in Chile to Fognini. (Of course, Fognini has had some very good results on clay this year, but that never makes him easier to pick for or against. :nono ) And Pablo Andujar had some good results in So. America. As did Dolgopolov, but people already recognize that he's always a potential threat without needing to know he was in the final in Rio.

I'm not saying these guys are likely to win, or even to go especially deep, as I pointed out, just that they could be more dangerous than some have noticed. Plus, I was trying to have a conversation about the whole field, not just the top few guys/potential SFs/finalists. I thought that's why GSM posted that article. Give me a little credit for caring about tennis, and not just Rafael Nadal.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Here is some early RG training. If Roger returns half as good as those , he is in good shape.



[video=youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX74l1z6PDo[/video]

 

[tented]

Here is some early RG training. If Roger returns half as good as those , he is in good shape.



[video=youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX74l1z6PDo[/video]

Nice. Just wish we could see the speed of the serves.

 

[Moxie]

^ Who sets up these hit-around dates? Does it just happen in the lobby of the hotel? Obviously, this is an interesting one.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

The last shot in this one is nice...


[video=youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xKz7mK6czc[/video]

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

^ Who sets up these hit-around dates? Does it just happen in the lobby of the hotel? Obviously, this is an interesting one.

I guess it is " I will have my people call your people " type of deal...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ Who sets up these hit-around dates? Does it just happen in the lobby of the hotel? Obviously, this is an interesting one.

Mirka?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I am impressed. But, as Alan Iverson says "we are talking about practice here".

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Carlos Berlocq has had a couple of good wins against Benneteau and Mahut this week, although admittedly those guys don't particularly rate clay as their favourite surface. He also got his first top 10 wins on his way to winning Oeiras the other week. He hasn't done well in the slams in the past, but he has taken some decent wins in 5 set Davis Cup matches on clay against Seppi and Simon. Also took Tsonga to a fifth set in one of them and has a win over Kohlschreiber after the German retired in the 5th set.

Potential spoiler at Garros? Not for the elite guys but some of the other seeds who don't like the clay so much?

 

[Moxie]

Carlos Berlocq has had a couple of good wins against Benneteau and Mahut this week, although admittedly those guys don't particularly rate clay as their favourite surface. He also got his first top 10 wins on his way to winning Oeiras the other week. He hasn't done well in the slams in the past, but he has taken some decent wins in 5 set Davis Cup matches on clay against Seppi and Simon. Also took Tsonga to a fifth set in one of them and has a win over Kohlschreiber after the German retired in the 5th set.

Potential spoiler at Garros? Not for the elite guys but some of the other seeds who don't like the clay so much?

I was going to mention Berlocq, but couldn't tell how interested everyone was in going deep in the rankings. He's 31, but a wily veteran on clay. And he did take down Berdych in Oerias. That was an upset. Like you, I'm kind of interested in the guys who are the "land mines" for early rounds. Not for the top guys, but the ones no one wants to see too soon.