Early Talk about Roland Garros

[GameSetAndMath]

With Rafa being shaky, it looks more and more like, we will have a different winner
at RG this year. While we do talk and speculate about RG in different places, I thought
it is better to have a unified thread to avoid scattering of opinions.

To me this clay season is definitely lack-luster one. However, at the same time
I am really excited about RG this year (partly because I am already licking my chops
in anticipation). May be the Tennis Gods are saving are all the exciting clay matches
of this year for RG exclusively.

I think we have a consensus that only Rafa Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka,
Roger Federer and David Ferrer are the only contenders.

I would like to find out whether we have a consensus that Rafa is not THE favorite
this year. At best, he will be one of the favorites going in. What do you think?

 

[Moxie]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

Personally, I think you still have to make Rafa THE favorite. Honestly, until proven otherwise, but here's my thinking:

Djokovic is considered his biggest threat on clay, for the last few years. Still, he's 0-5 against Nadal at RG, as is Roger. The wrist is still a question, and we'll see how he fares in Rome. If he doesn't go in 100% to RG, he's not going to win it, since he hasn't when he was.

Wawrinka: will be coming in as the 2nd favorite, I'd think, after Djokovic, to unseat Nadal. This will be a lot of unaccustomed attention and pressure, after the AO win. He didn't fare so well in Madrid. It will obviously be interesting to see how he does in Rome, for the confidence going into Paris.

Murray, Federer, Ferrer: I think they'd all have to be favored by the draw and upset to win the title.

Nishikori: Will be the potential Spoiler, though unlikely Dark Horse.

Which brings us to Rafa. I think much depends on how he's finding his confidence and range. Unless he's really in some deep form and confidence sink, and given what I said above, I doubt that there are 7 players that can beat him at best of 5 on clay. In any case, at this point, it will still come down to Rafa, imo.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

I hope Fed does not fall into Rafa's half at RG.

Assuming, someone else brings down the fall of Rafa, I think Fed will be THE one who
will capitalize on it.

I do agree that for Fed to even have a chance two things should happen: He should
be in the other half and somebody else should take out Rafa.

 

[Moxie]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

I hope Fed does not fall into Rafa's half at RG.

Assuming, someone else brings down the fall of Rafa, I think Fed will be THE one who
will capitalize on it.

I do agree that for Fed to even have a chance two things should happen: He should
be in the other half and somebody else should take out Rafa.

So is this what all your "early talk" was really about? If someone else should bring about the fall of Rafa, meaning by QFs at RG, Roger will not be the first in line to capitalize, IMO, unless Djokovic is less than 100%. And there's still Wawrinka. But still, as I said, and you did, we're talking about eliminating Nadal, which is not that likely. He's looked shaky in other years, though more so in this one, I'll admit, but he's still found a way through. For now, he's still the one everyone has to beat at RG. May I point out, you're already talking about the chances of a guy ONLY if Nadal is out. That wouldn't make him my 2nd favorite.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

Personally, I think you still have to make Rafa THE favorite. Honestly, until proven otherwise, but here's my thinking:

Djokovic is considered his biggest threat on clay, for the last few years. Still, he's 0-5 against Nadal at RG, as is Roger. The wrist is still a question, and we'll see how he fares in Rome. If he doesn't go in 100% to RG, he's not going to win it, since he hasn't when he was.

Wawrinka: will be coming in as the 2nd favorite, I'd think, after Djokovic, to unseat Nadal. This will be a lot of unaccustomed attention and pressure, after the AO win. He didn't fare so well in Madrid. It will obviously be interesting to see how he does in Rome, for the confidence going into Paris.

Murray, Federer, Ferrer: I think they'd all have to be favored by the draw and upset to win the title.

Nishikori: Will be the potential Spoiler, though unlikely Dark Horse.

Which brings us to Rafa. I think much depends on how he's finding his confidence and range. Unless he's really in some deep form and confidence sink, and given what I said above, I doubt that there are 7 players that can beat him at best of 5 on clay. In any case, at this point, it will still come down to Rafa, imo.

There is a serious flaw in your logic. Basically, you are dismissing others and then claiming
Rafa is the favorite. If you have to dismiss others to claim that Rafa is the favorite, then
may be he is not the favorite.

Your argument assumes that there must be a favorite in every tournament. May be we
are going in to RG this year without a favorite.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

I hope Fed does not fall into Rafa's half at RG.

Assuming, someone else brings down the fall of Rafa, I think Fed will be THE one who
will capitalize on it.

I do agree that for Fed to even have a chance two things should happen: He should
be in the other half and somebody else should take out Rafa.

So is this what all your "early talk" was really about? If someone else should bring about the fall of Rafa, meaning by QFs at RG, Roger will not be the first in line to capitalize, IMO, unless Djokovic is less than 100%. And there's still Wawrinka. But still, as I said, and you did, we're talking about eliminating Nadal, which is not that likely. He's looked shaky in other years, though more so in this one, I'll admit, but he's still found a way through. For now, he's still the one everyone has to beat at RG. May I point out, you're already talking about the chances of a guy ONLY if Nadal is out. That wouldn't make him my 2nd favorite.

I never said Roger is the 2nd favorite. I only said that once Rafa leaves Roger might
emerge as the favorite.

In fact, if Rafa were to reach the final, I would rather see someone else play him in
the final. I don't want another Fedal final.

About your first question, obviously the answer is NO. It was your reply that prompted
me to talk about it. In fact this thread is about any kind of early talk about RG, not necessarily
predicting the winner. For example, it would be interesting to see how far Samurai and
Black Heart go in RG, the two youngsters both of whom have won a clay title this year.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

if mr roland garros was flying his bi-plane around now I bet he would say..its up for grabs this year,

:idea: and I would say "hey mr roland g. I agree with you old boy, and mind out for the Eiffel tower in the low clouds when zooming around in your heavier than air machine"

 

[Moxie]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

I hope Fed does not fall into Rafa's half at RG.

Assuming, someone else brings down the fall of Rafa, I think Fed will be THE one who
will capitalize on it.

I do agree that for Fed to even have a chance two things should happen: He should
be in the other half and somebody else should take out Rafa.

So is this what all your "early talk" was really about? If someone else should bring about the fall of Rafa, meaning by QFs at RG, Roger will not be the first in line to capitalize, IMO, unless Djokovic is less than 100%. And there's still Wawrinka. But still, as I said, and you did, we're talking about eliminating Nadal, which is not that likely. He's looked shaky in other years, though more so in this one, I'll admit, but he's still found a way through. For now, he's still the one everyone has to beat at RG. May I point out, you're already talking about the chances of a guy ONLY if Nadal is out. That wouldn't make him my 2nd favorite.

I never said Roger is the 2nd favorite. I only said that once Rafa leaves Roger might
emerge as the favorite.

In fact, if Rafa were to reach the final, I would rather see someone else play him in
the final. I don't want another Fedal final.

About your first question, obviously the answer is NO. It was your reply that prompted
me to talk about it. In fact this thread is about any kind of early talk about RG, not necessarily
predicting the winner. For example, it would be interesting to see how far Samurai and
Black Heart go in RG, the two youngsters both of whom have won a clay title this year.

Well, you kinda did say that Roger was the 2nd favorite, twice, I think. In any case, I don't think it was my reply that would have given you to say that. I offered several options for possible winners, and what they were up against. I didn't single Federer out.

 

[Moxie]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

Personally, I think you still have to make Rafa THE favorite. Honestly, until proven otherwise, but here's my thinking:

Djokovic is considered his biggest threat on clay, for the last few years. Still, he's 0-5 against Nadal at RG, as is Roger. The wrist is still a question, and we'll see how he fares in Rome. If he doesn't go in 100% to RG, he's not going to win it, since he hasn't when he was.

Wawrinka: will be coming in as the 2nd favorite, I'd think, after Djokovic, to unseat Nadal. This will be a lot of unaccustomed attention and pressure, after the AO win. He didn't fare so well in Madrid. It will obviously be interesting to see how he does in Rome, for the confidence going into Paris.

Murray, Federer, Ferrer: I think they'd all have to be favored by the draw and upset to win the title.

Nishikori: Will be the potential Spoiler, though unlikely Dark Horse.

Which brings us to Rafa. I think much depends on how he's finding his confidence and range. Unless he's really in some deep form and confidence sink, and given what I said above, I doubt that there are 7 players that can beat him at best of 5 on clay. In any case, at this point, it will still come down to Rafa, imo.

There is a serious flaw in your logic. Basically, you are dismissing others and then claiming
Rafa is the favorite. If you have to dismiss others to claim that Rafa is the favorite, then
may be he is not the favorite.

Your argument assumes that there must be a favorite in every tournament. May be we
are going in to RG this year without a favorite.

There is no flaw in my logic. I didn't dismiss the others. I made a case, for and against them. Make your own for them, too, if you like (which you haven't done.) It was in your OP that you question whether Nadal is "THE favorite," but you do bring up the notion of a favorite. Don't chastise me for saying that there is one, or that it's Nadal. Forgive me for bringing up at this point that he's won the tournament 8 out of 9 times he's played it. I suppose the betting odds will be forgiven for being in his favor.

I totally agree that he doesn't look like the player on clay that he has for the last 9 years, but that doesn't mean that all bets are off and he's become an also-ran. Until the world really changes, I don't think it's outrageous to say that Nadal is the favorite to win RG again this year. Even if by a slimmer margin.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

Here is Wirthiem's take that was given before Madrid Tourney.

Hot topic of week: After two losses on clay, would you still pick Rafael Nadal as the favorite at Roland Garros? Do we need to see how he performs in Rome and Madrid?
-- Nicole Desplat, ‪@playersready

• This is a good question -- WTHIGOW Nadal? -- that came up several times. Nadal winning the French Open tends to be as predictable as time and tide, as the sun rising in the East and Marc Maron undercutting his otherwise excellent podcast with heroic quotients of narcissism. After dominating the clay-court lead-ups, Nadal has won at Roland Garros every year but one since 2005. Put another way: He has won the French Open more times than any male player has won any other major.

And yet ... watch Nadal in 2014 and you do not see a champion. You see a player unsure of himself, who has lost twice on clay, stumbled prematurely in Indian Wells after winning last year and lost in the Australian Open final. In some ways, this is in keeping with Nadal's career rhythms. He looks ready to conquer the world and eclipse Roger Federer; then he falters. He looks passive and on the downside of his career; suddenly, he turns in a year like 2013. If you think his spin-laden shots dip and rise in strange directions, consider his career trajectory.

If I can put off answering, I say we wait until one more event before hazarding a guess as to his French Open prospects. But if I had to answer today -- after a long and reverential pause to acknowledge what he's done in Paris over the last decade -- I'd be inclined to tip a new winner.

 

[Moxie]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

^Very interesting from Wertheim, but it doesn't get to your opinions, and you started the thread. Or do you just want your Pre-Roland Garros thread to either about a) Roger winning it, or b) Rafa not. I thought we were going to talk about everyone else, too.

 

[brokenshoelace]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

I would like to find out whether we have a consensus that Rafa is not THE favorite
this year. At best, he will be one of the favorites going in. What do you think?

He's not THE favorite, but he's the favorite. Had it been a 2011 scenario where there was someone else who clearly deserves to be at least, a co-favorite, I would have agreed. But in this case, I ask you this, if Nadal is not the favorite, who is? Novak is an even bigger question mark. Roger? Stan? They're contenders, sure.

So even if you say there is no favorite, but a group of favorites, Nadal would still be the favorite among that group.

 

[brokenshoelace]

RE: Early Talk about Rolland Garros

Your argument assumes that there must be a favorite in every tournament. May be we
are going in to RG this year without a favorite.

I don't know about that. Gun to your head, who would you pick? There's your favorite.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

How many 5 set clay court matches Nadal lost again?
Until proven otherwise, he is the favorite for me.

 

[TsarMatt]

How many 5 set clay court matches Nadal lost again?
Until proven otherwise, he is the favorite for me.

I think this sums it up perfectly. Despite Nadal's up-and-down form this last couple of months, his record at RG is way too freakishly good to discount. He has only lost once - that's bloody impressive, no matter which way you look at it. A lot of people talk about how 'lucky' he got last year against Djokovic, but people seem to forget that Nadal had a chance to serve out the match in the 4th set... I was surprised it went 5, really.

 

[herios]

The big favorite is still Nadal, no matter how his season looked like so far.
None of the other usual suspects (Djokovic, Federer and Ferrer) looked more impressive than him overall.
The only difference is that this season has more challengers to reach the final stages, like Wawrinka and Nishikori, and Nadal is more susceptible for an upset, than ever before.

Let's see who will win Rome for now, then we could speculate further.

 

[Kieran]

Rafa is the favourite, but not the way he's playing now. He's running at 50% or less at the moment, level-wise. However, it's rare he's going full pelt before Paris. And I remind you again, he looked awful the first week of Roland Garros last year, and Nole had set his cap on Paris.

Novak has his own misfortunes so far this season, which is a genuine pity - but hopefully they're behind him. The idea that Roger might snatch an opportunistic RG title isn't too far fetched but he's relying - again - on somebody else doing the dirty work, regarding Rafa. A pitfall for him - and it isn't a pitfall in real terms - is that he's just become a daddy again and this will impact his training and possibly his intensity.

I like the posts which suggest this is a more interesting and open season. I'm glad it is. Stan and Kei have prized open the door, and not just a little. It would please me if Rafa didn't win Paris that a non-Big 4 would take it, just to completely upset the apple cart and make the Four face a bigger challenge from the field, in future.

I know, it's so old fashioned to speak of a Big Four...

 

[shawnbm]

Nadal is still the favorite without question. He is the defending champion which should be enough, except that he won it seven of the previous years before last year.

 

[lacatch]

As they say in footnotes to instruments selling investment vehicles of various kinds, "past performance is no guarantee of future performance". No one has ever achieved a winning streak as Rafa has at the French; however, it would be foolish to ignore his 2014 form (including on clay). Unless he suddenly turns over a new leaf in Rome, I think someone else will take the crown in Roland Garros. He has NEVER had this poor of a run-up to the French in past years, so one can't selectively use his past track record only when it "supports" a prediction about Rafa's winning this year's French, n'est-ce pas?

 

[Moxie]

As they say in footnotes to instruments selling investment vehicles of various kinds, "past performance is no guarantee of future performance". No one has ever achieved a winning streak as Rafa has at the French; however, it would be foolish to ignore his 2014 form (including on clay). Unless he suddenly turns over a new leaf in Rome, I think someone else will take the crown in Roland Garros. He has NEVER had this poor of a run-up to the French in past years, so one can't selectively use his past track record only when it "supports" a prediction about Rafa's winning this year's French, n'est-ce pas?

I think everyone has acknowledged his form this year. It seems we're just agreeing that he's still the favorite. There is a difference between Rafa in 2/3 and Rafa in 3/5, particularly on clay. (So far, he's still only lost one clay match in a best of 5 format. Out of about 65, I think.) He had a shaky entry in 2011, and a rough looking start last year, but still won the title.

It's easy to see why conversations about RG can start and end with Nadal, and it's hard to know how Nole's wrist is, or where Roger's head, or Murray's form, or Kei's back, or is Stan will gain confidence in Rome, so we might have to pick this up towards the end of the week. It'll be interesting to see how the rising stars fare in Rome, as we begin to talk about who's looking dangerous to spoil, as well.