2024 Year-End Top 10 Prediction Game

[El Dude]

Happy holidays, all. Here's a fun game that I hope as many folks as possible will participate in (I'll stalk you if you don't): predict the 2024 year-end top ten. You can add or adjust your prediction until the first round of the Australian Open (yes, you get a handful of ATP 250s to adjust your assessment).

Basically, type your predicted year-end top 10 in and then at the end of the year--after the ATP Finals--I will score it, and the winner gets, well, bragging rights.

The Rules:
+1 point if player is in top 10
+2 points if you picked their exact spot
+1 point if you pick a player to have their highest yet YE ranking
+1 point if they've never been top 5 before
+1 point if they've never been in the top 10 before
+1 point if they're outside of the 2023 YE top 20
+1 point if they're outside of the 2023 YE top 50
+1 point if they're out of the 2023 YE top 100
+2 points if you correctly pick #1
+2 points if your YE #1 hasn't been #1 before (anyone but Novak, Rafa, Carlos, Daniil)
+2 points if your YE #1 hasn't been YE #1 before (anyone but Novak, Rafa, Carlos)

All points are cumulative, so if you pick Rafa (who finished #139) to finish in the top 10, you get 3 points (outside top 10, top 50, top 100), added on to whatever other factors you got right.

You can also pick up to three alternates - players that if they're in the top 10, you get points, but not for picking the exact spot.

Make sense? The rules are a bit complex, but I tried to make them encourage different strategies (e.g. a more conservative, "Ferrer-esque" approach vs. a bolder, risky "Kyrgiosian" approach). In other words, you get more points for predicting Nadal than you do Novak, or Arthur Fils than you do Hubert Hurkacz.

Have fun and put yourself on the line! The prize is the title of Tennis Oracle.

I'll add mine in the first comment.

Addendum:
For reference, here are the points you get for correctly picking the YE #1:

15: Players who are currently outside the top 100 and have never been top 10
14: Players who are currently outside the top 50 and have never been top 10
13: Players who are currently outside the top 20 and have never been top 10 (e.g. F Cerundolo, Griekspoor, Korda, Musetti, Davidovich Fokina, Fils, tc)
12: Players who are currently outside the top 10 and have never been top 10 (e.g. De Minaur, Paul, Shelton)

• -1 to the above for players who have previously been top 10 but not top 5 (e.g. Khachanov, Tiafoe, Norrie, Auger-Aliassime, Berrettini, Bautista Agut, Monfils, Gasquet, Fognini, Shapovalov, Goffin, Schwartzman, Isner, etc)
• -2 to the above for players who have previously been top 5 but not #1 (e.g. Dimitrov, Ruud, Wawrinka, Thiem, Raonic, Nishikori, etc)

11: Current top 10 players who have never been top 5 (Hurkacz)
10: Current top 10 players who have been top 5 (Tsitsipas, Zverev, Rublev, Sinner, Rune, Fritz)
8: Current top 10 players who have been #1 but not YE #1 (Medvedev)
7: Current top 10 players who have been YE #1 (Djokovic, Alcaraz)

What about Rafa and Andy? Well, Andy is currently #42 so starts with the 7 and adds 1 for being outside the top 20, so gets 8. Rafa is currently ranked #139 so adds two more and gets 10.

Players that you rank #2-10 will earn 1-9 points depending upon various factors; alternates can earn 0-7 points.

 

[El Dude]

My 2024 Year-End Top 10 v 2.0 (Updated 1/13):

1. Alcaraz
2. Sinner
3. Djokovic
4. Medvedev
5. Rune
6. Zverev
7. Rublev
8. Hurkacz
9. Tsitsipas
10. Dimitrov

Alternates: De Minaur, Shelton, Nadal

Do I really think Jannik Sinner will be #1? Well, probably not. But I think he has a significant shot (maybe 10-20%) compared to Djokovic (40-50%) and Alcaraz (30-40%), with Medvedev next (5-10%) and then everyone else (<10%). But its a game, right?

 

[Moxie]

Fun game! I'll give it a look and get back to you. Deadline is the first round of the Australian Open, right?

 

[Moxie]

Sitting down with the ATP rankings, and deciding to give it a go. Has anyone else noticed that the ATP has "upgraded" their website and now it totally sucks?

The exercise seems to be as much as anything about who I think might challenge the current top 10, and there are only so many promising options. I took a look at your choices, @El Dude and let that help me.

I'm going to drop Rune out, and I'm tempted to drop Tsitsipas. As usual, I will go with some of what I hope for.

1. Alcaraz
2. Sinner
3. Djokovic
4. Medvedev
5. Zverev
6. Rune
7. Rublev
8. Nadal (Rafa only makes it back to the top 10 if he wins a Major, if I'm not wrong?)
9. Fritz
10.Fils

Alternates: Korda, Shelton, Hurkacz

I know I still have time to change my mind, but I wanted also to get going on it. Interesting exercise.

 

[El Dude]

Moxie, Rafa could reach the top 10 without winning a Slam - you "only" need about 3000 points to get in, so that's a Masters, a Slam SF and QF, and a bunch of other results (or some other configuration).

And of course players have been in the YE top 10 without winning any big titles - think Tipsarevic and Gasquet types. And players like Nishikori and Raonic have been top 5 without winning big titles, due to them peaking during the height of Fedalkoray.

Anyhow, I think you mean Ruud dropping out? Yep, me too. I'm also tempted to reconfigure my top 3 to be the same as yours.

Rafa is tricky, because he could surge back and be top 5 or he could be hard-pressed to break into the top 20 if he's old and/or hurt again. I figured bottom half of top 10 is a middleground.

Hopefully we can get some more folks in on this. I'll tag a bunch of them soon...pester 'em, a bit

 

[Moxie]

Moxie, Rafa could reach the top 10 without winning a Slam - you "only" need about 3000 points to get in, so that's a Masters, a Slam SF and QF, and a bunch of other results (or some other configuration).

And of course players have been in the YE top 10 without winning any big titles - think Tipsarevic and Gasquet types. And players like Nishikori and Raonic have been top 5 without winning big titles, due to them peaking during the height of Fedalkoray.

Anyhow, I think you mean Ruud dropping out? Yep, me too. I'm also tempted to reconfigure my top 3 to be the same as yours.

Rafa is tricky, because he could surge back and be top 5 or he could be hard-pressed to break into the top 20 if he's old and/or hurt again. I figured bottom half of top 10 is a middleground.

Hopefully we can get some more folks in on this. I'll tag a bunch of them soon...pester 'em, a bit

Dude, it's the holidays, and I am not required to do math. But I will take it under advisement. Thanks for the tips on Rafa (and others.) Yes, I meant dropping out "Ruud." I feel bad, but I think he's not as ambitious or talented as others. Maybe "too nice a guy." I'd rather slot in Rude, who has ambition, spit and vinegar. At least I hope he lives up to his talent this year. I'm also dropping Tsitsipas, perhaps at my own peril, but he looks like a guy that is "sell," not "buy." If he straightens up his act, I'll be impressed, but he has work to do. That's why I put in Zverev. He's not my favorite, but he looks hungrier for it.

Yes, pester them, but people will play.

 

[El Dude]

Commence stalking:

@Fiero425 @Kieran @the AntiPusher @tented @britbox @MargaretMcAleer @kskate2 @Front242 @nehmeth @Nadalfan2013 @rafanoy1992 @tossip @Murat Baslamisli @Federberg @PhiEaglesfan712 @shawnbm @don_fabio @Jelenafan

Feel free to tag anyone else - those are just an assortment of regular-ish (and recent) contributors.

 

[tented]

Fun thread, @El Dude!

1. Alcaraz
2. Djokovic
3. Sinner
4. Medvedev
5. Rune
6. Tsitsipas
7. Nadal
8. Rublev
9. Zverev
10. Fils

Alternates: Fritz, Hurkacz, Ruud

 

[kskate2]

@El Dude There's already a TF oracle here. You'll have to come up w/ some other quaint word wizardry.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1. Djokovic
2. Shelton
3. Medvedev
4. Alcaraz
5. Sinner
6. Nadal
7. Zverev
8. Rune
9. Hurkacz
10. Rublev

Alternates: Tsitsipas, Ruud, Tiafoe

 

[lomaha]

1. Alcaraz
2. Medvedev
3. Rune
4. Sinner
5. Djokovic
6. Hurkatz
7. Zverev
8. Rublev
9. Fritz
10. Tsitsipas

Alternatives Ruud, Tiafoe, Nadal

 

[El Dude]

Glad to see some folks trickling in.

 

[the AntiPusher]

1. Nadal
2. Djokovic
3. Alcaraz
4. Sinner
5. Rune
6. Tsitsipas
7. Medvedev
8. Rublev
9. Zverev
10. FAA

Alternates: HH, Sheldon, Fils

Rafa doesnt have any points to defend!

 

[shawnbm]

1. Alcaraz
2. Nole
3. Rune
4. Medvedev
5. Sinner
6. Rublev
7. Zverez
8. Shelton
9. Greek god
10. Hurcatz

 

[El Dude]

Don't forget to add alternates, @tented , @shawnbm , @the AntiPusher . Consider them "free points" if they make it.

 

[shawnbm]

alterantes--FAA, Ruud and Tiafoe

 

[Moxie]

Well, now I feel bad I put Rafa lower than a few others did. Might have to reconsider that.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Healthy Nadal with a full schedule would be no.1.

But because he won’t play much I see the Top 2 positions being held by Alcaraz and Sinner.

I feel that Djokovic & his fangirls will have a big wake up call when they see their boyfriend exit the Top 5 this year.

This ranking prediction is supported by Elo system data.

Thank you for reading.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

1. Alcaraz
2. Sinner
3. Medvedev
4. Rune
5. Shelton
6. Djokovic
7. De Minaur
8. Nadal (part-time)
9. Zverev
10. Tiafoe

Alternates: Ruud, Tsitsipas, Rublev

 

[don_fabio]

1. Alcaraz
2. Djokovic
3. Sinner
4. Nadal
5. Medvedev
6. Rune
7. Zverev
8. Tsitsipas
9. Rublev
10. Dimitrov

Alternates: FAA, Hubi, Ruud