2019 Men’s Wimbledon SF: Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal

[rafanoy1992]

Nadal leads the H2H 24-15 including winning their last encounter at Roland Garros semifinal round last month. However, Federer has 2-1 head to head lead on grass. Surprisingly, this will be their first encounter at grass since their epic 2008 Wimbledon final match.

 

[tenisplayrla08]

And so we'll have it. 2008 final to the 2019 semifinal. I was young. But even I knew back then that tennis players were done by 32. Agassi was the exception. Not the rule. If you had said to me in 2008 that Roger and Rafa would play again in 2019 at Wimbledon, in the semifinal no less, I would have laughed in your face. Hard. Like, for 10 minutes. But here it is.

Fedal XL.

This is actually just the second time all three of the big 3 have made the semis. I think. Going back to 2007. Before Djokovic had even won a slam or made the US Open final that year. And he had to retire against Rafa in the semis.

No Fed last year. No Fed in 2010 or 2011. No Rafa at the 2009 event and then didn't even make the quarters from 2012 to 2017 (didn't even play in 2016). Djokovic didn't make it in 2008. No Djokovic in 2016.

Now. The big thing. I'd bet you Wimbledon will put Djokovic/RBA on court first on Thursday. So both will know for a fact they have to play Djokovic by the time they play each other. But. If Djokovic breaks his leg and RBA goes through to the final, they'll both know that they are playing for the title. Either way. I love Fed. 2017 AO comeback against Rafa was huge and great. He's beaten him on hard courts in best of 3 sets since then. But that AO match is the only best of 5 setter they've played that Fed could have won since the 2014 AO that Rafa won in straights and the 2012 AO that Rafa won in 4 sets. Obviously the RG match last month is irrelevant. The 3 straight sets wins over Rafa on hard courts over the last couple years says a lot. But Rafa will be ready. Rafa has looked great. And Rafa is probably fresher than Fed simply because of his age. So I'm not big on Fed's chances come Thursday. I think we officially have to say he's the underdog. But. He's looked great all week. He is feeling it. Obviously he's got close to a 50/50 chance of winning it. He'll need his serve all day long. He'll need his forehand. And he'll need to be crackin on that backhand. His movement will have to be near perfect. But Rafa will also need his serve and forehand and the movement. I just trust that Rafa will have those more than I do Fed. Not really on the serve. But on the forehand and movement, at this point, Rafa should have the edge.

We know all this though. It'll come down to the big points. To tactics. And to the mental fortitude. Rafa nearly beating Novak last year should strike even more fear into Fed's heart. But he also knows that he'll play an entirely different game than Novak did last year. And it changes everything. I'm not counting Fed out at any point. Maybe if he goes down 2 sets to love. But if he wins one of the first two sets and even if it goes 5, I like his chances. But Rafa is the favorite. I hate to admit it. But at this point, he has to be at least the slight favorite.

And then of course there will likely be Djokovic waiting in the wings for Sunday. Neither is guaranteed to come out of this tournament a slam richer.


EDIT: Friday. Sorry. I keep forgetting today is Wednesday.

 

[AnonymousFan]

Nadal in 4.

I await mrzz's narrative.

 

[atttomole]

I think Nadal wins it in 4 because the surface is getting slower, and the bounce getting higher every year.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Nadal in 4.

I await mrzz's narrative.

LOL!

 

[AnonymousFan]

the surface is getting slower

they replayed the Federer-Roddick 2004 final the other day on ESPN, makes this year look like slomo with the winners IMO

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

they replayed the Federer-Roddick 2004 final the other day on ESPN, makes this year look like slomo with the winners IMO

Grass used to be grass when my idol Borg played on it,gone downhill at a fast rate.

 

[Bonaca]

At the beginning of the tournament I was sure Bull will beat him, but now not so sure.
Federer has all is needed to put him down, he plays better and better.
If Novak was not on the other side, I would strongly root for Maestro. But in this situation I strongly hope he will play Nadal in the final!!

 

[Federberg]

These boys are still so much better than anyone else it's ridiculous. I was actually bored today by the inevitability of the outcomes for the Federer, Nadal and Djokovic matches. I feel like I've just been waiting for the semi-finals to arrive. What a sad state of affairs. I ask myself yet again are these guys that good or are the rest so bad. I fluctuate between one conclusion and the other! Somehow it devalues the whole thing. I know I criticise @Fiero425 for his constant moaning, but sometimes one is forced to a similar conclusion!

 

[Horsa]

Nadal in 4.

I await mrzz's narrative.

Me too.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

This is a heart versus head thing for me. I would like to say Roger in straight sets but he has to play the perfect match. Rafa is relentless, he has his grass legs under him now and his level has been steadily increasing. Roger showed glimmers of greatness , improved dtl backhand but he is still having a hard time with his shots penetrating this slow surface. Slice does not work against Rafa , he eats those for breakfast. How does Roger take time away from Rafa here? For a whole match? Tough ask I think. I can see a 4 or 5 setter win for Rafa. I hope I am wrong though.

 

[Bonaca]

These boys are still so much better than anyone else it's ridiculous. I was actually bored today by the inevitability of the outcomes for the Federer, Nadal and Djokovic matches. I feel like I've just been waiting for the semi-finals to arrive. What a sad state of affairs. I ask myself yet again are these guys that good or are the rest so bad. I fluctuate between one conclusion and the other! Somehow it devalues the whole thing. I know I criticise @Fiero for his constant moaning, but sometimes one is forced to a similar conclusion!

They are just too damn good for the rest, simple as that. I’m enjoying it as long as it lasts.
Be happy to witness that live!

 

[DarthFed]

Roger in 4. This is do or die. 5 life and death matches done, 2 life and death matches to go.

 

[mrzz]

How does Roger take time away from Rafa here?

I guess he will go a lot for the body... Nadal has sailed quite smoothly so far but the only moments I saw him struggle a tiny bit was when his opponent returned serve to his body. He is moving better to reach the corners than to move around balls fired to his body.

 

[monfed]

I've got to agree with DF here. This is do or die for Federer. He must go all out to win that 1st set and the third set cause let's face it he'll drop the 2nd if he wins the first. If he wins the 2nd he'll drop the third.

So Fed will have to win sets 1,3 and 4 which is exactly what he'll do.

Federer in 4.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I think Nadal wins it in 4 because the surface is getting slower, and the bounce getting higher every year.

Ah yes, better get that narrative ready. The ball is getting higher "ever year." By 2031, rumor has it, players will be allowed to use ladders.

 

[DarthFed]

And he better be ready from the first ball and no pussy returning. Return aggressively and take everything early, wittle Walphy and his wittle knees don't like that.

 

[tented]

And he better be ready from the first ball and no pussy returning. Return aggressively and take everything early, wittle Walphy and his wittle knees don't like that.

SABR.

 

[Horsa]

SABR.

I'm extremely sorry for interrupting your conversation but what does that abbreviation stand for, please?

 

[atttomole]

Ah yes, better get that narrative ready. The ball is getting higher "ever year." By 2031, rumor has it, players will be allowed to use ladders.

At this rate, by 2025 it will be playing like RG. Just after the end of the quarterfinals Mattek-Sands was saying that the surface has become slower. They were also saying this could help Rafa. And that is news!!