2019 Men’s Wimbledon Final: Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer

[britbox]

Nah, I don't really believe that BS. I just figured it was a funny way to talk about my crappy 8 ball. Tignor is an actual tennis writer, and I'd take his predictions any day over the bookies, for example. For example, it seems that the bookies make Djokovic a heavy favorite. Whereas, most people who actually pay attention to tennis think this is a tight one to call. Speaking of Bodo...did he retire? Haven't heard from him in ages.

Bodo is the feature writer for ESPN these days. I think he still does bits and pieces for other publications though.

 

[mrzz]

I noticed that too. But what I observed was that whereas in the past Rafa would go for a high bouncing topspin shot into Roger's backhand he doesn't have that out anymore. If he tries that he's likely to get a backhand taken on the bounce and drilled fast into his forehand. It was evidence of how Roger has managed to take up space in Rafa's head

That is part of the equation, but Nadal used fire a Lot of crosscourt winners out of those... He barely attempted them.

 

[mrzz]

Nah, I don't really believe that BS. I just figured it was a funny way to talk about my crappy 8 ball. Tignor is an actual tennis writer, and I'd take his predictions any day over the bookies, for example. For example, it seems that the bookies make Djokovic a heavy favorite. Whereas, most people who actually pay attention to tennis think this is a tight one to call. Speaking of Bodo...did he retire? Haven't heard from him in ages.

Tignor is a good writer. Actually I think that he is a much better writer than a tennis analyst.

 

[Moxie]

Tignor is a good writer. Actually I think that he is a much better writer than a tennis analyst.

Then you'll be fine that he picked Djokovic to win tomorrow.

 

[britbox]

Nah, I don't really believe that BS. I just figured it was a funny way to talk about my crappy 8 ball. Tignor is an actual tennis writer, and I'd take his predictions any day over the bookies, for example. For example, it seems that the bookies make Djokovic a heavy favorite. Whereas, most people who actually pay attention to tennis think this is a tight one to call. Speaking of Bodo...did he retire? Haven't heard from him in ages.

Well, the aim of the bookies is to make money, so their odds will fluctuate depending on the cash put down in bets.

 

[britbox]

Then you'll be fine that he picked Djokovic to win tomorrow.

Djokovic is favourite for good reason. Thankfully, the bookies and analysts don't get to decide though. Fed's got a shot.

 

[DarthFed]

Darth is losing sleep over Novak or Nadal possibly overtaking Fed in slams. It was entertaining seeing Darth, cali and others bash Fed for playing RG, as if it decreased chances of Roger doing well on grass. Turns out, it may have helped him, he won Halle and beat a red hot Nadal in semis. These fan boys are really nervous...

As far as this match is concerned, i'm going with Federer. Law of averages tells us roger is too good to go 0-3 vs Novak in Wimbledon finals. I always feel there are factors at play outside of the usual 'who's in form, who's fresher' etc.. Sometimes forces are just behind a certain player when he's due for a win... I think Novak will enter this match doubting he can make it 3-0 and Federer will come into this match feeling like it's his time. These mental things matter, it's a point here and there..

At age 38 there is no way playing a bunch on clay helped. This will be his 23rd match in the past 9 weeks. I already know for sure he hasn't had anything close to a stretch like that since 2015 and he was probably too old to be doing it then. 13th best of 5 in the past 5+ weeks, etc. Oh I know your response will be that you play matches in your club and never get tired and that Fed can play 20 hours a day all year and be fresh as a daisy so I'm saving you the trouble here

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic is favourite for good reason. Thankfully, the bookies and analysts don't get to decide though. Fed's got a shot.

Exactly. If you're in the final, you got a shot. I voted Djokovic in 5, because...oh, who knows? It could go any number of different ways. Djokovic younger and more rested, but less tested. Roger coming off a big confidence booster win v. Rafa. MikeOne said that Roger should win because, statistically, can Novak win 3 in a row v. Roger at Wimbledon. I don't ever buy that argument....that someone is "due" for a win. If I had to put my own money down, I'd go Djoker, but who the **** knows.

 

[mrzz]

. I don't ever buy that argument....that someone is "due" for a win.

Amen to that

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Before the Fedal match I commented that Fed's ability to win the match depends on making sure that two third or more of the points are decided in short and medium rallies. In other words, I kept saying Fed should refrain from indulging in brutal base line rallies.

I have not seen specific stats on who won more short points, medium points and long points (Wimbledon website does not list them in that level of detail) and don't know where to find them. If anyone knows please post them.

However, it appeared that Fed was winning a lot of these brutal rallies (especially in the third and fourth sets) to a simple eye test.
Moreover Tignor writes "Perhaps the biggest surprise of the match was Federer’s ability to outlast Nadal in the long rallies. The most important of them came with Federer serving at 3-1 in the third set, with the match evenly poised at a set apiece, and Rafa trying to make a charge. Federer saved a break point with the deftest of backhand short-hops at the baseline, and then reached game point by surviving a 25-shot rally. During this tournament, there had been a lot of talk about how slowly the grass was playing; the assumption was that this would help Nadal. But this match actually featured fewer long rallies than their ’08 final, and when they did come, Federer won them."

It is this aspect of Fed's game that interests me going into the final. IMHO, Fed lost the 2014 and 2015 Wimbledon finals primarily because he was unable to hang with Novak in brutal baseline rallies and at the same time was also unable to shorten the points. Now that we have seen that he was able to hang in with Ralph on baseline rallies, it gives me hope that he will be able to do so with Novak also and that may lead to his victory.

p.s. However, there is one caveat. At this age and point of his career, it is difficult to know whether Fed can come to the courts with guns blazing so soon after the big win over Ralph. It won't be a mental let down, but his body needs to cooperate.

I say Roger in 4.

 

[imjimmy]

I was completely wrong in Nadal-Fed match prediction. I never anticipated that Nadal would play so poorly in such a big match.

So I'm going to stick my head out and make another prediction. And you can all laugh at me when I get this wrong as well.

Novak in 3 sets (or 4 at most). From a tennis perspective, I've not seen anything in Fed's game that would trouble Novak. All the serves that Nadal was not returning on Friday, would be coming back with interest. Djokovic would be deadly from the backhand wing as well - stretching Fed wide and LOW cross court which Rafa was unable to do. Further Djokovic is much more solid from the baseline and his defense much stronger. So I cannot see Fed winning any long rallies. On top of that Djokovic's serve is the strongest of the big 3 and his net play, statistically, the best as well (both in this tournament). So what does Fed do to win the match? He doesn't have the stylistic matchup advantage over Djoker that Wawrinka has.

Agut's match was probably the toughest for Djokovic in the tournament. Just as the Medvedev match was in the AO 2019. I would be surprised if the final is not one-sided.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is what the bookies say currently.

Novak 5/9 (about 64%)

Fed 48/29 (about 36%)

 

[El Dude]

Obviously I want Roger to win, but I feel far less attached to the outcome of this match than I did the SF. Beating Rafa at a Slam has just been so rare, and defending his home turf and keeping the grass H2H lead just felt important. I really hope he gets #21, but if he doesn't at least he beat Rafa.

 

[Bonaca]

Obviously I want Roger to win, but I feel far less attached to the outcome of this match than I did the SF. Beating Rafa at a Slam has just been so rare, and defending his home turf and keeping the grass H2H lead just felt important. I really hope he gets #21, but if he doesn't at least he beat Rafa.

Yeah that’s my feeling too when Novak plays Bull, a win against him is the most special. That’s why I hoped to see him in the final.
ANd far more hoped to see Novak in the French final, damn..... it still hurts!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Bodo is the feature writer for ESPN these days. I think he still does bits and pieces for other publications though.

Bodo saw the writing on the wall with Tennis.Com and got a gig with ESPN who pay top money,still never a fan of his period.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Tignor is a good writer. Actually I think that he is a much better writer than a tennis analyst.

Agree Steve is an excellent writer,I met him at the AO a few year's ago

As for a tennis analyst cannot got past Darren 'Killer'Cahill....as a Aussie I am a tad bias,though Darren to my way of thinking has a great tennis mind also has been a great coach and a great guy in general.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I just do not see how Federer will out rally Djokovic from the baseline for 4 to 5 sets.

Also, while Djokovic has not really been "tested" in this tournament, I do not think it will bother him that much. In a way because he knew he will face Federer in the finals, it will allow him to focus and just play his game normally.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Obviously I want Roger to win, but I feel far less attached to the outcome of this match than I did the SF. Beating Rafa at a Slam has just been so rare, and defending his home turf and keeping the grass H2H lead just felt important. I really hope he gets #21, but if he doesn't at least he beat Rafa.

Interesting take, El Dude.

What is your opinion about the Djokovic-Federer H2H record?

If Federer loses to Djokovic tomorrow, he will be 6-10 in GS meetings including 1-4 at Wimbledon (0-3 at Wimbledon finals).

 

[Michael;Kiwi]

It's 9:30 here in New Zealand. The Cricket Cup World Final is just starting and will continue into the morning. I have a bad gut feeling that I'm going to go 0 for but you never know. I saw the clash of dates several weeks ago but didn't think there was a chance both Federer and New Zealand would make the dates. All I know is that I'm going to be tires tomorrow. Federer in five. New Zealand scores 270 and bowls them out for just 200.

 

[El Dude]

Interesting take, El Dude.

What is your opinion about the Djokovic-Federer H2H record?

If Federer loses to Djokovic tomorrow, he will be 6-10 in GS meetings including 1-4 at Wimbledon (0-3 at Wimbledon finals).

Well, Novak has been a better player since 2011: 20-9, vs. 5-13 before. I don't like to play the "age card," but it does matter; their almost six year gap does matter. Novak turned 24 in 2011, Roger 30. Meaning, prime Novak has only faced 30-something Roger - and most of their matches have been during Novak's very best years and Roger's dotage. It isn't that 30-something Roger hasn't been great, but he's been less consistent than he was when he was younger. If they were the same age, the H2H would be quite different.

Roger hasn't beaten Novak at a Slam since 2012...that's seven years and 4 Slams in a row. Sound familiar? Not saying that 2019 Wimbledon will be their version of 2017 AO, but stranger things have happened.