Denisovich said:
GameSetAndMath said:
Novak will play this with extra focus. He will take it in straight sets. But, each set
will be competitive. But, I don't think any set will go to a tie breaker. My scoreline
7-5, 6-3, 6-4.
Yeah something like that. A bit tighter I think, but three sets it is.
Yes. This would be my prediction as well. Three tight sets (as in every set will be very evenly contested until a crucial point/break/TB), but Novak wins all of them.
It's such an interesting match, despite my prediction above. In fact, that's partially why I think it's interesting. The rallies, games, etc... will be very competitive. In other words, it really comes down to small intangibles that ultimately make a big difference (and could be the difference between a competitive three set victory and a 5-set marathon). Tennis is a game of inches, and I think Wawrinka-Djokovic is a match-up that highlights that perfectly:
Wawrinka, in general, has the arsenal to trouble Novak (who is obviously the superior player). He's got a huge serve, big ground strokes off of either wing, is one of the few players who can hang -- and occasionally best -- Novak in backhand cross court exchanges, and has the occasional variety in his game to break the rhythm. His ability to change direction with the backhand wing is what does the most damage against Novak, since Wawrinka at times uses the DTL backhand as a rally shot, but hits it deep enough and with enough pace to catch Novak off guard. He actually uses it to open up the court at times which is remarkable and goes against common wisdom (you usually use a CC shot to open up the court), but it works. Moreover, he possesses a big serve to get free points or set up 1-2 punches.
So it's not really a question of aggression or being able to do his share of dictating. What really sways the match-up in Novak's favor is a few things:
-Superior movement. While Wawrinka's movement is improved, especially since getting in better shape, you can see juts how much better Novak glides around the court. This is key in longer rallies where they each take turns dictating, turning defense into attack, etc... Novak does the latter in particular very well, and his defending gets him back in points that Wawrinka would normally win against anyone else. Also, when they start stretching each other out with ridiculous angled CC forehands, Novak has the extra bit of mobility/dexterity/quickness to get the better of Stan. Conversely, when Novak is dictating, he'll have an easier time staying on top of the point.
-Returning: Wawrinka's serves will come back more than usual, and he will find it extremely difficult to win points on his second serve in key moments (this was crucial in their two GS meetings last year).
-Stamina: If Stan is going to make it competitive on the scoreboard, it's almost assuredly going to be a long match. However, Novak has that extra bit in the reserve in these key moments all the time. He'll find it easier to be the aggressor in those moments.
-Mental strength/belief/closing things out: If Wawrinka is serving for a set, there's a really good chance he's going to struggle finishing it. Ditto for tie-breaks. These key moments will likely go in Novak's favor.
So all in all, when you look at it, it's not far-fetched for Wawrinka to make it yet another super competitive match. So really, because of these minor details, a potential 3 set victory for Djokovic could be a 5 set victory for Wawrinka if Novak is lacking in any category (say he's not returning well, and loses focus in key moments. That alone is enough to turn things. Of course, this looks unlikely as Novak has been brilliant). Keep in mind, this is all assuming Wawrinka is playing extremely well. If he's even slightly below par the match is over.
So yeah, I expect Novak 3 very competitive sets.
