2019 Men's Wimbledon Championships

[Moxie]

I'm starting to think that Roger isn't going to end up with the Slam record.

Slams: Roger 20, Rafa 18, Novak 15
Age: Roger almost 38, Rafa 33, Novak 32

Let's say Roger wins one more and finishes with 21. Do we really think that Rafa won't do what it takes to stick around and makes sure he gets those 4 more? And don't you think Novak will be motivated to stay around long enough to surpass Rafa?

My prediction is that Roger finishes with 20-21, Rafa with +1 (21-22), and Novak +2 (22-23). Its just the way of things.

Now if the situation was reversed and Roger was 5-6 years younger, I would predict him to finish with the highest Slam count. That's the benefit of coming after - you get to break older players' records.

The only way that doesn't happen is if either Rafa and/or Novak experience catastrophic injury, and/or one or two of the Next Genners rise to a level of greatness.

Ok, it is a Slam, but don't give me such a hard time about the Fedal wars after this post. Sure, if Roger were younger, things might be different. I think you're optimistic that Roger wins another one. I think the loss to Anderson last year told us where he was in Majors. They seem clearly to be tracking each other at this Wimbledon, and it will be one of them, I feel that's certain. I do like Rafa's chances to take out Roger, but I'll never be more than cautiously optimistic about him beating Novak.

From there, I think you over-estimate Djokovic's getting 7-8 more??!! Seriously? You, the guy who boosts the Next Gen? That seems unrealistic to me. He may pass Rafa if, Nadal stops now. That's "only" 4 more. And he may pass Roger, although 6 more at his age is a big ask. But 7-8 more? Do you seriously project that?

 

[El Dude]

Ok, it is a Slam, but don't give me such a hard time about the Fedal wars after this post. Sure, if Roger were younger, things might be different. I think you're optimistic that Roger wins another one. I think the loss to Anderson last year told us where he was in Majors. They seem clearly to be tracking each other at this Wimbledon, and it will be one of them, I feel that's certain. I do like Rafa's chances to take out Roger, but I'll never be more than cautiously optimistic about him beating Novak.

From there, I think you over-estimate Djokovic's getting 7-8 more??!! Seriously? You, the guy who boosts the Next Gen? That seems unrealistic to me. He may pass Rafa if, Nadal stops now. That's "only" 4 more. And he may pass Roger, although 6 more at his age is a big ask. But 7-8 more? Do you seriously project that?

Oh my god, Moxie...you see everything as a Fedal War. You are totally obsessed. How is what I said at all Fedalwarish? Because I speculated that if Roger were younger it would be different? That was so secondary to my main point, which you seem to be missing: that younger players always break the records of older players...that's the nature of things. It is inevitable. And also, that Rafa and Novak won't let Roger's record stand...they'll do whatever they have to to break his record. My point is: they'll find a way.

And I said "let's say Roger wins one more"...that's not a prediction but a hypothetical. I predicted 20-21, meaning maybe he wins another. I won't count him out until he hangs up his racket, although I'd probably give him a <50% chance of winning another.

But yeah, predicting that Novak wins 7-8 more is a bit much. So, probably, is predicting that Rafa wins 4 more. But again, it depends upon health, determination, and how good NextGenners get, and when. There are so many possible scenarios.

 

[Moxie]

Wow, now you're being hysterical. All I did was respond to your points, with a bit of a dig that you always call me the one ginning up the Fedal wars. And then you did it again. Unnecessary?

 

[DarthFed]

I'm starting to think that Roger isn't going to end up with the Slam record.

Slams: Roger 20, Rafa 18, Novak 15
Age: Roger almost 38, Rafa 33, Novak 32

Let's say Roger wins one more and finishes with 21. Do we really think that Rafa won't do what it takes to stick around and makes sure he gets those 4 more? And don't you think Novak will be motivated to stay around long enough to surpass Rafa?

My prediction is that Roger finishes with 20-21, Rafa with +1 (21-22), and Novak +2 (22-23). Its just the way of things.

Now if the situation was reversed and Roger was 5-6 years younger, I would predict him to finish with the highest Slam count. That's the benefit of coming after - you get to break older players' records.

The only way that doesn't happen is if either Rafa and/or Novak experience catastrophic injury, and/or one or two of the Next Genners rise to a level of greatness.

The age part is of course a factor and yes, being younger is an edge in this. They've been chasing Roger for as long as they've been around and are waiting to see where he ends up. That's why I always talk about Roger needed to see the future a bit. It was a shame he had kids young and dropped the intensity so much. He's done pretty piss poor since the twins were around with just 5 majors in 10 years.

The other thing, bigger thing working for Rafa and Djokovic is that their only decent competition right now is 38 years old. Not a single good competitor under 30 right now. Not one. How long will that last? Well that may determine their final tally. If you had 2-3 really talented and ambitious young players I think all 3 would be done. That's the nature of sports, or it is supposed to be.

 

[shawnbm]

These three are just miles better than everyone else—it’s that simple really.

 

[DarthFed]

These three are just miles better than everyone else—it’s that simple really.

Which isn't hard, let's be honest. Name me one other player on tour that is even remotely consistent right now? When Murray was around he was at least a consistent though lesser threat. Now...there isn't anyone else I'd say is a reliable threat at majors. I bet if we go back the last 5-6 years we'd be shocked at how few players even consistently reach the 3rd or 4th round of a major.

 

[DarthFed]

Ok, it is a Slam, but don't give me such a hard time about the Fedal wars after this post. Sure, if Roger were younger, things might be different. I think you're optimistic that Roger wins another one. I think the loss to Anderson last year told us where he was in Majors. They seem clearly to be tracking each other at this Wimbledon, and it will be one of them, I feel that's certain. I do like Rafa's chances to take out Roger, but I'll never be more than cautiously optimistic about him beating Novak.

From there, I think you over-estimate Djokovic's getting 7-8 more??!! Seriously? You, the guy who boosts the Next Gen? That seems unrealistic to me. He may pass Rafa if, Nadal stops now. That's "only" 4 more. And he may pass Roger, although 6 more at his age is a big ask. But 7-8 more? Do you seriously project that?

I'm always glad when you say you think Roger is done and is a total washed up scrub. He isn't playing as pathetic as last year so the Anderson match isn't exactly a great comparison. It has often come back to bite you before and here's to hoping it does again.

I'm the opposite. If Roger brings enough determination (life and death match) and no mental baggage he can beat Nadal off that awful dirt. Of course this trash court gives Nadal a serious chance but Fed should still beat him. But I don't see Roger beating Novak on this "grass". Conditions are only worse for him compared to the finals he lost to Novak 4 and 5 years ago.

 

[El Dude]

Wow, now you're being hysterical. All I did was respond to your points, with a bit of a dig that you always call me the one ginning up the Fedal wars. And then you did it again. Unnecessary?

Hysterical? Umm, ok. Anyhow, you are the one that brought in the Fedal wars:

Ok, it is a Slam, but don't give me such a hard time about the Fedal wars after this post.

 

[Moxie]

I'm always glad when you say you think Roger is done and is a total washed up scrub. He isn't playing as pathetic as last year so the Anderson match isn't exactly a great comparison. It has often come back to bite you before and here's to hoping it does again.

I'm the opposite. If Roger brings enough determination (life and death match) and no mental baggage he can beat Nadal off that awful dirt. Of course this trash court gives Nadal a serious chance but Fed should still beat him. But I don't see Roger beating Novak on this "grass". Conditions are only worse for him compared to the finals he lost to Novak 4 and 5 years ago.

I have never said that Roger is a "washed up scrub." Far from it. However, I do think that last year's debacle v. Anderson tells us something about where Roger is at the business end of tournaments. (Presaged by his loss to Del Potro at IW earlier last year.) I'm not trying to be mean, I'm saying what is reasonable. This is not me predicting gloom and doom for him out of spite. It's what is there to see, if we're predicting reasonably as to outcomes. Of course, he has proven me and others wrong, so we shall see what he can still manufacture. There's most of a week to go, and he's still in it.

 

[Moxie]

These three are just miles better than everyone else—it’s that simple really.

Indeed. And for now, it's still true. I get why others predict same for the foreseeable future, but we all know it won't last forever. It's not a question of "if", only of "when." But if we're still having this conversation in two years I'll be shocked.

 

[shawnbm]

We have been saying what marks he says above for at least four years. I find it amazing we are still having the same discussion. This new generation of players are simply not as skilled or is mentally forceful as Roger, Rafael and Novak. I simply see no other way to explain it.

 

[Moxie]

Oh my god, Moxie...you see everything as a Fedal War. You are totally obsessed. How is what I said at all Fedalwarish? Because I speculated that if Roger were younger it would be different? That was so secondary to my main point, which you seem to be missing: that younger players always break the records of older players...that's the nature of things. It is inevitable. And also, that Rafa and Novak won't let Roger's record stand...they'll do whatever they have to to break his record. My point is: they'll find a way.

And I said "let's say Roger wins one more"...that's not a prediction but a hypothetical. I predicted 20-21, meaning maybe he wins another. I won't count him out until he hangs up his racket, although I'd probably give him a <50% chance of winning another.

But yeah, predicting that Novak wins 7-8 more is a bit much. So, probably, is predicting that Rafa wins 4 more. But again, it depends upon health, determination, and how good NextGenners get, and when. There are so many possible scenarios.

You misunderstand me. And you act like it's all me. However, you bring in the Slam count unbidden, and that's not a conversation about this Major, it's the generic Fedalovic wars. And yes, because you're gaming the what if's, a bit. But that doesn't bother me. Fair point. It's just that you hate it when I do it. I'm just saying don't act like I'm the only one who does it.

Glad you agree that predicting 7-8 more for Novak is a bit much. That's a top-tier hall of fame career by itself, and he's 32. I cannot honestly see that happening. Unless he does the double Nole slam right now, we're talking about 3-4 years of winning 2-3 more/year. That is a big ask. Sure, Roger might win one more, though I made my argument against to Darth above. Even if that puts Rafa within 3, again, a big ask. To your point, imo there's a solid chance they end up where they are, in order of Majors, if not exact number. The very fact that we think they're capable of winning any/many more is rather amazing at this point. I do think the field will catch up to them sooner than we think. We tennis fans seem to have short memories and limited imaginations. If you ask me.

 

[Moxie]

Back to the basic top, I'm just as glad Raonic is out. I don't think he'd ever have troubled Novak enough to say so. Nole has Goffin next, who might just get swatted way, or might be troublesome enough to take a set. After that, winner of Pella/RBA. RBA has beaten Novak twice this year. Or if it's Pella, at least it's more of a baseline fight. Do I see any of the 3 knocking out Nole? No. But it would never have been Raonic. (Sorry, @herios.)

 

[monfed]

He could win this one and still his record may be in jeopardy. He's older than the hunters. Unless Fed plans on playing another 5 years, he likely won't be able to safeguard his record.

If he gets 21, the record will most probably be safe.

 

[kskate2]

Wimbledon Results for Round 4 Day 7 - Monday, July 8, 2019

 

[Bonaca]

Back to the basic top, I'm just as glad Raonic is out. I don't think he'd ever have troubled Novak enough to say so. Nole has Goffin next, who might just get swatted way, or might be troublesome enough to take a set. After that, winner of Pella/RBA. RBA has beaten Novak twice this year. Or if it's Pella, at least it's more of a baseline fight. Do I see any of the 3 knocking out Nole? No. But it would never have been Raonic. (Sorry, @herios.)

Very unlikely Goffin or Agut will do that. Agut played another Novak and that were best of 3 matches. Still everything is possible. For me the other finalist is more interesting. We will see another Fedal SF with Nadal winning. His form is great. Still hoping for my dream final and something like the AO 12 looking at the quality and intensity on the court. Still sad that didn’t happend in Paris.

 

[Ricardo]

Good to see that Nadal stuck to his guns when asked if Barty was put on court 2. He said he won 18 slams and is higher on the hierarchy but still often played on outside courts, even at RG.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Ok, it is a Slam, but don't give me such a hard time about the Fedal wars after this post. Sure, if Roger were younger, things might be different. I think you're optimistic that Roger wins another one. I think the loss to Anderson last year told us where he was in Majors. They seem clearly to be tracking each other at this Wimbledon, and it will be one of them, I feel that's certain. I do like Rafa's chances to take out Roger, but I'll never be more than cautiously optimistic about him beating Novak.

From there, I think you over-estimate Djokovic's getting 7-8 more??!! Seriously? You, the guy who boosts the Next Gen? That seems unrealistic to me. He may pass Rafa if, Nadal stops now. That's "only" 4 more. And he may pass Roger, although 6 more at his age is a big ask. But 7-8 more? Do you seriously project that?

7-8 more for Djokovic, while definitely an optimistic scenario, is not that unrealistic, or have we not learned anything? He's 32, with no history of serious injuries (relatively speaking), no real signs of aging, and the best player in the world. So while I understand projecting 7-8 more slams can sound too rich (7-8 slams is like a hall of fame career on its own), I wouldn't rule it out, depending on how the rest of the year unfolds. I mean, he's a favorite to win the major taking place right now. I wouldn't bring up the next gen until I actually see that there is one worthy of being mentioned in this conversation. Only the big 3's age/injuries will stop them for the foreseeable future. Yes, "things can quickly change," except they haven't in 15 years. These three aren't any three. They're literally the best three players in tennis history.

Athletes across every sport are performing at a high level at unprecedented "old" age and that's more or less a fact. So while years ago, predicting 7-8 more slams for a 32 year old would have been ludicrous, it's theoretically less so now. I say theoretically, because I'm not saying it's likely -- that's a LOT of slams -- but that he should be able to play at a high enough level to at least compete for them and be among the very clear favorites.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Oh my god, Moxie...you see everything as a Fedal War. You are totally obsessed. How is what I said at all Fedalwarish? Because I speculated that if Roger were younger it would be different? That was so secondary to my main point, which you seem to be missing: that younger players always break the records of older players...that's the nature of things. It is inevitable. And also, that Rafa and Novak won't let Roger's record stand...they'll do whatever they have to to break his record. My point is: they'll find a way.

And I said "let's say Roger wins one more"...that's not a prediction but a hypothetical. I predicted 20-21, meaning maybe he wins another. I won't count him out until he hangs up his racket, although I'd probably give him a <50% chance of winning another.

But yeah, predicting that Novak wins 7-8 more is a bit much. So, probably, is predicting that Rafa wins 4 more. But again, it depends upon health, determination, and how good NextGenners get, and when. There are so many possible scenarios.

In fairness, the race for to the slam record is in large part a Fedal war. I understand you didn't mean it that way but I mean, they are two of the three players competing for it.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Querry is at least stylistically interesting vs. Nadal because of that serve and the fact that he can play on grass. Novak-Goffin will be a joke and Roger will steamroll Nishikori on this surface.