2018 French Open Men's SF: Nadal v Del Potro

[Denis]

Who wins?

 

[mrzz]

Ha! My crystal ball has told me something UNBELIEVABLE! Some people will simply cry. I wonder if I should warn you guys or let you see it unfold.

 

[britbox]

If somebody held a gun to my head and asked then I'd go with Nadal... but they aren't.

I've thought for years that Del Potro was a potential winner of this tournament so I'll take a punt and go for him in 4.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Nadal in 4, but he has to actually play well. The serve is a huge issue as he just isn't holding easily and being routinely broken, and an even bigger problem (but it's more fixable) is the backhand in this particular match-up, since there will be plenty of BH to FH cross court exchanges, and if Nadal is just dropping his backhand short, DelPo will eat it up with his riffle of a forehand.

 

[AnonymousFan]

Nadal in 3

 

[Denis]

Hard not to go with Nadal in three or four, but I am stubborn so I will go with DP in four. That will make him the third man on this planet to have beaten Nadal at this tournament in 87 matches. Good luck.

 

[imjimmy]

Nadal in 4, but he has to actually play well. The serve is a huge issue as he just isn't holding easily and being routinely broken, and an even bigger problem (but it's more fixable) is the backhand in this particular match-up, since there will be plenty of BH to FH cross court exchanges, and if Nadal is just dropping his backhand short, DelPo will eat it up with his riffle of a forehand.

I think the critical thing in this matchup is that Delpo doesn't take the ball as early as Schwartzmann or any of the other players that trouble Rafa (Djokovic, Davydenko, Nalbandian, Fognini etc). Nadal is usually a lot more comfortable when the opponent doesn't take time away from him. Delpo won't do that as much. Also when Rafa plays well, some of his best shot-making has been against Del Potro. (Wimb 2011 4th Round and UsOpen 2017 SF). Nadal knows that if he doesn't change the regular patterns, he will be overpowered. Hence some of his best off-forehand, DTL forehands and DTL backhands have been against the Argentinian.

But all that happens when Nadal plays well. Which he generally isn't this tournament. He also looks a bit fatigued in general and is lacking the pace on his serve and his forehand. His movement too is a bit iffy (by his own high standards at Paris). And for a change, Delpo will be the fresher of the two in this match, which wasn't the case in their recent UsOpen duel.

Still, I think Nadal raises his game when it matters. If he plays his best, then there can be only one result. Although I would think the match would go 5 sets - as I'm not convinced that Nadal is at his usual level in RG.

 

[DarthFed]

Nadal in 3 unless it's cloudy and damp. The sun is the asshole's greatest source of energy on these courts. Zero prayer for anyone remaining if it's sunny

 

[brokenshoelace]

I think the critical thing in this matchup is that Delpo doesn't take the ball as early as Schwartzmann or any of the other players that trouble Rafa (Djokovic, Davydenko, Nalbandian, Fognini etc). Nadal is usually a lot more comfortable when the opponent doesn't take time away from him. Delpo won't do that as much. Also when Rafa plays well, some of his best shot-making has been against Del Potro. (Wimb 2011 4th Round and UsOpen 2017 SF). Nadal knows that if he doesn't change the regular patterns, he will be overpowered. Hence some of his best off-forehand, DTL forehands and DTL backhands have been against the Argentinian.

But all that happens when Nadal plays well. Which he generally isn't this tournament. He also looks a bit fatigued in general and is lacking the pace on his serve and his forehand. His movement too is a bit iffy (by his own high standards at Paris). And for a change, Delpo will be the fresher of the two in this match, which wasn't the case in their recent UsOpen duel.

Still, I think Nadal raises his game when it matters. If he plays his best, then there can be only one result. Although I would think the match would go 5 sets - as I'm not convinced that Nadal is at his usual level in RG.

The regression in DP's backhand over the years definitely helps Nadal, and in their match-ups, he's the one actually dictating and moving Del Potro around. It allows him to open up the court and change directions. This is partially due to DelPo standing far back to return Nadal's serve (Rafa even on his best days doesn't get too many cheap points against him, and this won't be any different with the way he's serving). At the US Open last year, this got him in trouble as Nadal was just on fire after the first set and moved him around like a yoyo before sailing winners past him at will. In that regard, I think clay might help Del Potro because as you said he doesn't take the ball early, and will have more time to line up shots and take huge cuts at the ball.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Delpo in three TB sets.

 

[atttomole]

Nadal should win it in 4 sets, but I think it will be close.

 

[monfed]

DelPotro to save tennis and humanity in 4 sets.

 

[imjimmy]

I think clay might help Del Potro because as you said he doesn't take the ball early, and will have more time to line up shots and take huge cuts at the ball.

I actually had the same exact thought. Nadal, very well, might be more effective against Delpo on faster surfaces. Because Delpo doesn't take the ball on the rise as much (preferring to wait for it) Nadal is the one who sometimes takes time away from Delpo and gets really aggressive. We saw that in the UsOpen 2017/Wimb 2011 when he was moving up in the court and generally trying to go for winners.
With clay, Nadal's forehand won't penetrate the court as much and Delpo will have time to line up his shots. Also for some reason, Delpo's defense is under-rated. He isn't the best mover, but he has great reach and a deadly running forehand. So that should help on clay.

I think it is critical that Rafa serves much better than he has so far. Otherwise it might be a long day at office.

 

[DarthFed]

DelPotro to save tennis and humanity in 4 sets.

He is as great a potential hero of mankind as any. But I think evil will be biting down on his 11th dirt trophy on Sunday. The man lives to give me bad days, F him.

 

[monfed]

He is as great a potential hero of mankind as any. But I think evil will be biting down on his 11th dirt trophy on Sunday. The man lives to give me bad days, F him.

You're under this assumption that everything will go Nadal's way. Bright sunshine, luck, him playing top form, opponent playing subpar. It's fine you're certainly not wrong to assume that.

But what I'm suggesting is that for once the shoe will be on the other foot.

 

[DarthFed]

You're under this assumption that everything will go Nadal's way. Bright sunshine, luck, him playing top form, opponent playing subpar. It's fine you're certainly not wrong to assume that.

But what I'm suggesting is that for once the shoe will be on the other foot.

My troll friend, I wish like hell he'd have to play his best or that he would for sure lose if it isn't sunny. He's too fricking good on this dirt. I just hope he "only" ends up with 12.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa in four.

At the beginning of RG, it even looked doubtful as to whether he will participate. But, he has now reached SF. I don't have belief that he can get it done. I have not really seen JMDP play at this RG at all. So, mine is a general prediction as opposed to based on the feel got by watching his recent play.

 

[Moxie]

Rafa in four.

At the beginning of RG, it even looked doubtful as to whether he will participate. But, he has now reached SF. I don't have belief that he can get it done. I have not really seen JMDP play at this RG at all. So, mine is a general prediction as opposed to based on the feel got by watching his recent play.

Given the way we were worried about him coming in, Juanito has really been excellent. I'm very happy for that. And for his resurgence. He's been pegged over the years to do well at RG, but injuries have kept him from it. Many have said Rafa has to serve well tomorrow. I'm not sure that's going to happen. If Juan Martin pulls off the upset, I hope he wins the tournament.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

Opinions so far tend to slightly favour Rafa but not clear cut. Moxie has serious doubts which is not a good sign for the King.
Delpo ha a game very similar to Sod 9y ago, so if Sod managed an upset why not Delpo?
Delpo in 5, just for the fun of it, because the match looks interesting, so it should last...

 

[Moxie]

Opinions so far tend to slightly favour Rafa but not clear cut. Moxie has serious doubts which is not a good sign for the King.
Delpo ha a game very similar to Sod 9y ago, so if Sod managed an upset why not Delpo?
Delpo in 5, just for the fun of it, because the match looks interesting, so it should last...

Just to be clear, Broken is the doubt-Meister. I always stay cautiously optimistic. But, like Broken, I would say that nothing is given, and everyone acted like this would be a coronation from the beginning. I still think it will be a fight.