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Yeah, I hear you, although would be far less pessimistic about the younger guys on that list--Tsitsipas, Ruud, and especially Shapovalov (as well as Mikael Ymer, who is about the same age as Tsitsipas). Or at least we can't really have expected more than what we got from them, given their age.
With Elias Ymer, the concern is not only that he fell back in the rankings this year, but he didn't even jump so far from 2014 to 2015. His year-end rankings the last three years are: 228, 136, 163. One would think 228 to 136 is a big jump, but all it really means is that he stabilized on the Challenger tour. It is less of a jump from 250ish range to 150ish than ti is 150 into the top 100, because you have to go through "Qualie-Challenger Hell." Once you get into the top 100 you go straight into the maindraw of Slams and build up some solid points.
For me the biggest disappointment is Rublev. He's exactly the same age as Fritz and unlike Fritz, who went from 174 to 70, he essentially stagnated, going from 185 to 157. This is not a good sign. I do think he has a break-through in him, but he no longer looks like a potential elite. Still, I wouldn't be surprised for everything to click for him next year and to see a fast rise; but he may be more on the Khachanov-Edmund-Pouille-Thiem path rather than the true elites.
We should be mightily impressed with Shapovalov, who went from 1130 to 241 in his first year, with only 4 ATP tour matches (2-2) and solid work on the Challenger tour, not to mention a Junior Slam title - all at age 16-17. We have to remember that he's a year an a half younger than Fritz and Rublev, and two younger than Zverev. If he can get into the 100-150ish range next year, stabilizing on the Challenger tour, I think that will be good enough progress, although I wouldn't be surprised if he sneaks into the top 100. Similarly with Ruud and Tsitsipas, both of whom are just getting started and got themselves to a good place with a legit chance to reach the top 100 before turning 19.
Opelka may continue to rise quickly for a bit, although may hit a ceiling in the 20-50 range. He seems a bit one-dimensional, at least from what I've heard so far. Lee and Kozlov also could variants on the Borna Coric theme: solid overall game, but without the weaponry and exceptional skills that being a top 10 player requires. But they're young enough that we should reserve judgement for a bit.
I didn't even mention Felix Auger Aliassime, who finishes the year ranked around 600 at age 16. I wouldn't be surprised to see him own the Junior tour next year and win a couple Junior Slams, and then play a few Futures and Challengers and earn a top 200 ranking. He seems to be enormously talented.
With Elias Ymer, the concern is not only that he fell back in the rankings this year, but he didn't even jump so far from 2014 to 2015. His year-end rankings the last three years are: 228, 136, 163. One would think 228 to 136 is a big jump, but all it really means is that he stabilized on the Challenger tour. It is less of a jump from 250ish range to 150ish than ti is 150 into the top 100, because you have to go through "Qualie-Challenger Hell." Once you get into the top 100 you go straight into the maindraw of Slams and build up some solid points.
For me the biggest disappointment is Rublev. He's exactly the same age as Fritz and unlike Fritz, who went from 174 to 70, he essentially stagnated, going from 185 to 157. This is not a good sign. I do think he has a break-through in him, but he no longer looks like a potential elite. Still, I wouldn't be surprised for everything to click for him next year and to see a fast rise; but he may be more on the Khachanov-Edmund-Pouille-Thiem path rather than the true elites.
We should be mightily impressed with Shapovalov, who went from 1130 to 241 in his first year, with only 4 ATP tour matches (2-2) and solid work on the Challenger tour, not to mention a Junior Slam title - all at age 16-17. We have to remember that he's a year an a half younger than Fritz and Rublev, and two younger than Zverev. If he can get into the 100-150ish range next year, stabilizing on the Challenger tour, I think that will be good enough progress, although I wouldn't be surprised if he sneaks into the top 100. Similarly with Ruud and Tsitsipas, both of whom are just getting started and got themselves to a good place with a legit chance to reach the top 100 before turning 19.
Opelka may continue to rise quickly for a bit, although may hit a ceiling in the 20-50 range. He seems a bit one-dimensional, at least from what I've heard so far. Lee and Kozlov also could variants on the Borna Coric theme: solid overall game, but without the weaponry and exceptional skills that being a top 10 player requires. But they're young enough that we should reserve judgement for a bit.
I didn't even mention Felix Auger Aliassime, who finishes the year ranked around 600 at age 16. I wouldn't be surprised to see him own the Junior tour next year and win a couple Junior Slams, and then play a few Futures and Challengers and earn a top 200 ranking. He seems to be enormously talented.
