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There's been lots of talk about the younger generations of players in various threads, so I thought I'd start a new thread to focus discussion here. As I said in one thread, I'll go into this in greater detail in my generations series, and possibly another article I was researching called "Looking for the Next Great Tennis Player." But I'll share some of that research now.
As I said elsewhere, the five-year generation of players born from 1989-93 is, right now, the worst in Open Era history - at least going back to Arthur Ashe's generation (b. 1939-43) that saw only five Slam titles. This current generation hasn't won a Slam yet, and the way things are looking it is hard imagining they will. Of key importance is that if you look at the year-end rankings in five year increments going back to 1975, the #1 in every fifth year belonged to the generation that is currently the age that the 89-93 generation is (22-26)....except this one. Take a look:
Year-end #1 players (age)
2015: Djokovic (28)
2010: Nadal (24)
2005: Federer (24)
2000: Kuerten (24)
1995: Sampras (25)
1990: Edberg (24)
1985: Lendl (25)
1980: Borg (24)
1975: Connors (23)
I found it rather uncanny that every player other than Djokovic was between a tight range of 23-25.
If we go back further it gets sketchy because we don't have computer rankings, but according to Wikipedia we have:
1970: (tie) Laver (32), Rosewall (36), Newcombe (26)
1965: Laver (27)
1960: (tie) P Gonzales (32), Rosewall (26)
1955: P Gonzales (27)
1950: (tie) Kramer (29), Segura (29)
1945: Riggs (27)
1940: Budge (25)
1935: Perry (26), Vines (24)
1930: Cochet (29)
1925: Tilden (32)
1920: Tilden (27)
I only include this to show just how much of a young man's game tennis has become in the Open Era.
Anyhow, back to the current era, here's the 1989-93 generation in the top 50 with birth year:
Generation b. 1989-93
8. Kei Nishikori (1989)
14. Milos Raonic (1990)
17. Bernard Tomic (1992)
19. Dominic Thiem (1993)
20. Benoit Paire (1989)
25. Jack Sock (1992)
28. Grigor Dimitrov (1991)
32. Steve Johnson (1989)
33. Joao Sousa (1989)
39. Vasek Pospisil (1990)
41. Jiri Vesely (1993)
43. Martin Klizan (1989)
45. Aljaz Bedene (1989)
48. Donald Young (1989)
Kei has a chance to go up a slot or two depending upon how he does in London, but the rest are basically set. We've seen some rises from a bunch of players - Tomic, Thiem, Sock, and Vesely - but Nishikori, Raonic, and Dimitrov have all dropped.
Now let's compare the younger generation.
Generation b. 1994-98
30. Nick Kyrgios (1995)
45. Borna Coric (1996)
51. Hyeon Chung (1996)
78. Thanasi Kokkinakis (1996)
81. Alexander Zverev (1997)
87. Lucas Pouille (1994)
110. Kyle Edmund (1995)
126. Kimmer Copperjans (1994)
133. Elias Ymer (1996)
140. Jared Donaldson (1996)
Now let's dial the older generation back five years, to when they spanned the same age range (turning 17-21):
89-93 Gen, 2010 Year-end Rankings
87. Ricardas Berankis
98. Kei Nishikori
106. Grigor Dimitrov
156. Milos Raonic
160. Federico Delbonis
161. Jerzy Janowicz
173. Ryan Harrison
203. Guillaume Rufin
208. Bernard Tomic
214. Filip Krajinovic
As you can see, the 1994-98 generation is in MUCH better shape than the 89-93 generation was five years ago, and thus will presumably be better going forward. The highest ranked teenager in 2010 was Dimitrov at #106, while this year there are four teenagers finishing in the top 100, one of whom is finishing in the top 50. Berankis has been particularly disappointing, essentially stagnating since he broke into the top 100.
So there's room for cautious optimism with the 94-98 generation, if only in comparison to the weak 89-93 generation. There doesn't seem to be a stand-out future all-time great, but there are several players who could be very good and win multiple Slams, just no Rafas or Novaks. I see the 94-98 generation as being somewhat similar to the weakish 74-78 generation. But unlike that generation, which was sandwiched between Sampras/Agassi on one hand (69-73) and Federer (79-83) on the other, the 94-98 generation will benefit from the weak 89-93 generation before it in a similar way that the 84-88 already is benefiting.
So here's my "fearless prediction" for these two generations going forward. The 89-93 generation will improve in 2016 and have its best year yet, with a half dozen players or more clawing their way into the top 20 and one or two of them back in the top 10. They will also see their first Masters title, maybe more than one. They will eventually win a Slam or two, but probably not more than several, and will be eclipsed by the 94-98 generation by 2018 or 2019.
As for the 94-98 generation, we will see continued and steady improvement over the next few years until they become the dominant generation on tour sometime in the 2019-20 range. There will be a couple years of total chaos where there are three generations vying for power, maybe 2017-19, but by 2020 certainly the 94-98 generation will have gained supremacy. This generation, I predict, will have no clearly dominant player, but several who win multiple Slams, although probably none that cross the six-Slam threshold that marks all-time greatness.
As I said elsewhere, the five-year generation of players born from 1989-93 is, right now, the worst in Open Era history - at least going back to Arthur Ashe's generation (b. 1939-43) that saw only five Slam titles. This current generation hasn't won a Slam yet, and the way things are looking it is hard imagining they will. Of key importance is that if you look at the year-end rankings in five year increments going back to 1975, the #1 in every fifth year belonged to the generation that is currently the age that the 89-93 generation is (22-26)....except this one. Take a look:
Year-end #1 players (age)
2015: Djokovic (28)
2010: Nadal (24)
2005: Federer (24)
2000: Kuerten (24)
1995: Sampras (25)
1990: Edberg (24)
1985: Lendl (25)
1980: Borg (24)
1975: Connors (23)
I found it rather uncanny that every player other than Djokovic was between a tight range of 23-25.
If we go back further it gets sketchy because we don't have computer rankings, but according to Wikipedia we have:
1970: (tie) Laver (32), Rosewall (36), Newcombe (26)
1965: Laver (27)
1960: (tie) P Gonzales (32), Rosewall (26)
1955: P Gonzales (27)
1950: (tie) Kramer (29), Segura (29)
1945: Riggs (27)
1940: Budge (25)
1935: Perry (26), Vines (24)
1930: Cochet (29)
1925: Tilden (32)
1920: Tilden (27)
I only include this to show just how much of a young man's game tennis has become in the Open Era.
Anyhow, back to the current era, here's the 1989-93 generation in the top 50 with birth year:
Generation b. 1989-93
8. Kei Nishikori (1989)
14. Milos Raonic (1990)
17. Bernard Tomic (1992)
19. Dominic Thiem (1993)
20. Benoit Paire (1989)
25. Jack Sock (1992)
28. Grigor Dimitrov (1991)
32. Steve Johnson (1989)
33. Joao Sousa (1989)
39. Vasek Pospisil (1990)
41. Jiri Vesely (1993)
43. Martin Klizan (1989)
45. Aljaz Bedene (1989)
48. Donald Young (1989)
Kei has a chance to go up a slot or two depending upon how he does in London, but the rest are basically set. We've seen some rises from a bunch of players - Tomic, Thiem, Sock, and Vesely - but Nishikori, Raonic, and Dimitrov have all dropped.
Now let's compare the younger generation.
Generation b. 1994-98
30. Nick Kyrgios (1995)
45. Borna Coric (1996)
51. Hyeon Chung (1996)
78. Thanasi Kokkinakis (1996)
81. Alexander Zverev (1997)
87. Lucas Pouille (1994)
110. Kyle Edmund (1995)
126. Kimmer Copperjans (1994)
133. Elias Ymer (1996)
140. Jared Donaldson (1996)
Now let's dial the older generation back five years, to when they spanned the same age range (turning 17-21):
89-93 Gen, 2010 Year-end Rankings
87. Ricardas Berankis
98. Kei Nishikori
106. Grigor Dimitrov
156. Milos Raonic
160. Federico Delbonis
161. Jerzy Janowicz
173. Ryan Harrison
203. Guillaume Rufin
208. Bernard Tomic
214. Filip Krajinovic
As you can see, the 1994-98 generation is in MUCH better shape than the 89-93 generation was five years ago, and thus will presumably be better going forward. The highest ranked teenager in 2010 was Dimitrov at #106, while this year there are four teenagers finishing in the top 100, one of whom is finishing in the top 50. Berankis has been particularly disappointing, essentially stagnating since he broke into the top 100.
So there's room for cautious optimism with the 94-98 generation, if only in comparison to the weak 89-93 generation. There doesn't seem to be a stand-out future all-time great, but there are several players who could be very good and win multiple Slams, just no Rafas or Novaks. I see the 94-98 generation as being somewhat similar to the weakish 74-78 generation. But unlike that generation, which was sandwiched between Sampras/Agassi on one hand (69-73) and Federer (79-83) on the other, the 94-98 generation will benefit from the weak 89-93 generation before it in a similar way that the 84-88 already is benefiting.
So here's my "fearless prediction" for these two generations going forward. The 89-93 generation will improve in 2016 and have its best year yet, with a half dozen players or more clawing their way into the top 20 and one or two of them back in the top 10. They will also see their first Masters title, maybe more than one. They will eventually win a Slam or two, but probably not more than several, and will be eclipsed by the 94-98 generation by 2018 or 2019.
As for the 94-98 generation, we will see continued and steady improvement over the next few years until they become the dominant generation on tour sometime in the 2019-20 range. There will be a couple years of total chaos where there are three generations vying for power, maybe 2017-19, but by 2020 certainly the 94-98 generation will have gained supremacy. This generation, I predict, will have no clearly dominant player, but several who win multiple Slams, although probably none that cross the six-Slam threshold that marks all-time greatness.
