Young Guns Review 2013

[GameSetAndMath]

Read through the following review of young guns by ATP, in case you have not
done so already. It has reports on 5 players under 22 in top 100 and two players
under 20 in top 200. Watch out for the last two guys who are teenagers ranked
outside of top 100 (but inside 200). Both of them have already won a match in GS.

This Australian teenager Nick actually won against Worm in FO'13. He has a wild
card in Brisbane'14. May be Britbox or someone else attending Brisbane can give a
scouting report on him. I would not be surprised if he gently overtakes Tomic
(who always gets in trouble with law, with or without the help of his father)
in a couple of years.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/12/52/Best-Young-Guns.aspx

 

[El Dude]

First of all, I wasn't a fan of the article. I know it wasn't meant to be a critique and it was meant to be upbeat, but I would have liked more analysis.

Secondly, it seems odd that its about players that are 22 and younger when Milos Raonic turns 23 four days after the article was published, whereas Jerzy Janowicz turned 23 just a bit over a month ago and is excluded. Why not make the cut-off "born in the 90s" and thus 23 or younger by the end of 2013? It seems rather arbitrary, even intentionally done to include Raonic but exclude Janowicz. Or just poorly thought-out.

All that aside, we've talked about this to death, but I don't see a list of future Slam contenders. Raonic seems like he's going to be the near-elite category with Berdych and Tsonga, a darkhorse candidate at Slams and might win an ATP 1000 or two, especially once Nadal/Djokovic/Murray start to decline. Dimitrov could be that, or he could be a bit better. Its really up to him.

Tomic is a bit disappointing but still so young. The article didn't point out that he's been treading water for a few years now, finishing #42, #52, and #51 over the last three years - hardly encouraging progress. I see him, a best, as being in the Nishikori/Almagro tier - someone who could hover just outside the top 10 for years, maybe peak in every once in awhile. But if he was going to be anything better than that, I think we would have seen continued development.

I don't have a good read on Busta. Right now I'm guessing he peaks in the 10-25 range, someone in the Seppi/Simon/Monaco tier. But its too soon to tell, really. He's easy to cheer for, though, and I think will be a fan favorite on this board.

I have a good feeling about Vesely. I don't know if he'll be a Slam contender but think he'll rise up to the top 20, maybe top 10. Again, its too soon to tell, but he is the youngest player in the top 100.

Nick Kyrgios remains promising. I'd like to see him stabilize in the top 100 next year. I could see him rise like Tomic, but unlike Bernard hopefully not stall out for those very important age 19-21 years. I don't have a sense of what his upside is (ditto Pouille), but it is substantial.

No mention of the American trio of Harrison, Sock, and Kudla. I'm thinking that their upside is no more than the 30-50 range.

Some other young players worth mentioning: Christian Garin, Gianluigi Quinzi, and Borna Coric. They are the only 17-year olds in the top 400, all three ranked in the 300s. I'd like to see them get into the 100s by this time next year, which would place them on the same developmental line as Nick Kyrgios.

 

[herios]

An article on the ATP site about Vesely:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/12/52/Vesely-Young-Gun-Feature.aspx

 

[herios]

I read today an article about Grigor Dimitrov where it is mentioned L'Equipe preditcs he will be number one ranked player by 2018!

Considering he will be by then turning 27y old, it is not impossible, because the current leaders will be all over 30.

 

[Kieran]

I read today an article about Grigor Dimitrov where it is mentioned L'Equipe preditcs he will be number one ranked player by 2018!

Considering he will be by then turning 27y old, it is not impossible, because the current leaders will be all over 30.

If a guy has great talent and then it all kicks in - the heart, the urgency, the pain - and he becomes a great player, then it's a sight to behold. Who knows what the future will hold for Grigor, but look at the current crop of greats and imagine how he has to hurdle in amongst them, before they've laid down their guns. It's a tough ask and a lot of talented men are put off by all the hard work and effort. Discipline is key. Safin lacked it, Daveed, and so many others. And it isn't only discipline they lacked.

Look at all the ingredients that go into making a world #1 and a great player, to boot. I can't wait to watch tennis in 2018, if you know what I mean, because it'll be someone new but they'll be doing things which are considered great. Not easy, though...