The Rankings Thread (ATP)

[Front242]

I actually agree that a 3 seed is better. A very rare time we can say that but I look at it like this; regardless of being the 2 or 3 seed there is a 50% chance Rafa and Zverev are on the other half of the draw. As a 2 seed there would be 100% chance he doesn't see Rafa before the final and as the 3 seed there is 100% chance he doesn't see Zverev before the final. And I think Roger's chances vs. Zverev would be better in the final than a semi. It may sound strange but if that's the final I wouldn't be worried at all, I think Roger would step up and Sascha would have the moment get to him a bit. I also think Roger wouldn't mind seeing Rafa in a semi instead of the final but obviously he prefers both on the other half.

Of course the big question is how serious is the back injury? Those tend to linger a lot longer than two weeks. Fed screwed the pooch royally by playing Canada and going in unprepared.

According to Dr. Carol it can't be an injury and is only discomfort of the ego if you aren't out more than 1 month so nothing to worry about at all. He skipped an event he's had great results at and had high chances to win because of a bruised ego. Nothing back related at all 'cos you know, clearly your ego makes you serve 130-170kph first serves and not move for balls even when they're right next to you. We all know that. Common sense really.

 

[MartyB]

I concur...being seeded 3 ain't a bad thing. Worked out at Wimbledon. The US Open folks though have to be hoping that Federer and Nadal aren't drawn in the same half. A Fedal final will be a bigger draw than than a Fedev or Nadev final. No offense to Andy Murray... I'm sure they'd be salivating over Federer\GOAT vs. Zverev\Future-of-Tennis just as much as they would over Fedal...

I"m still not convinced that Murray is playing...

 

[DarthFed]

According to Dr. Carol it can't be an injury and is only discomfort of the ego if you aren't out more than 1 month so nothing to worry about at all. He skipped an event he's had great results at and had high chances to win because of a bruised ego. Nothing back related at all 'cos you know, clearly your ego makes you serve 130-170kph first serves and not move for balls even when they're right next to you. We all know that. Common sense really.

Yeah makes total sense to miss out on a chance at #1 at a tournament he owns. But we will have to forgive Doctor Carol as she is used to following someone who milks his injuries/ailments for all they're worth.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa is 500 pts ahead of Roger right now. But, he is defending 180 pts at USO whereas Roger is defending nothing. So, Rafa's effective lead is only 320. So, in order for Roger to become #1, one of the following scenario must occur

1. Roger wins USO. Doesn't matter what Rafa does.
2. Roger loses in finals. Doesn't matter what Rafa does.
3. Roger loses in semifinals and Rafa loses before semifinals.
4. Roger loses in quarterfinals and Rafa loses to Lajovic in R1.

In all other scenario, Rafa will maintain his #1 ranking.

 

[britbox]

Rankings - Aug 28

1 (1) Rafa Nadal(Spain) 7645
2 (2) Andy Murray(Britain) 7150
3 (3) Roger Federer(Switzerland) 7145
4 (4) Stan Wawrinka(Switzerland) 5690
5 (5) Novak Djokovic(Serbia) 5325
6 (6) Alexander Zverev(Germany) 4470
7 (7) Marin Cilic(Croatia) 4155
8 (8) Dominic Thiem(Austria) 4030
9 (9) Grigor Dimitrov(Bulgaria) 3710
10 (10) Kei Nishikori(Japan) 3195
11 (11) Milos Raonic(Canada) 2870
12 (12) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga(France) 2690
13 (15) Roberto Bautista(Spain) 2525
14 (13) David Goffin(Belgium) 2525
15 (14) John Isner(U.S.) 2425
16 (17) Jack Sock(U.S.) 2345
17 (18) Nick Kyrgios(Australia) 2325
18 (19) Tomas Berdych(Czech Republic) 2310
19 (16) Pablo Carreno(Spain) 2225
20 (20) Lucas Pouille(France) 2210
21 (21) Sam Querrey(U.S.) 2095
22 (22) Gael Monfils(France) 1915
23 (23) Gilles Muller(Luxembourg) 1885
24 (24) Albert Ramos(Spain) 1815
25 (25) David Ferrer(Spain) 1695
26 (26) Fabio Fognini(Italy) 1580
27 (27) Mischa Zverev(Germany) 1484
28 (28) Juan Martin del Potro(Argentina) 1460
29 (29) Karen Khachanov(Russia) 1390
30 (30) Richard Gasquet(France) 1390
31 (31) Pablo Cuevas(Uruguay) 1360
32 (32) Kevin Anderson(South Africa) 1360
33 (33) Diego Schwartzman(Argentina) 1280
34 (34) Adrian Mannarino(France) 1255
35 (35) Feliciano Lopez(Spain) 1250
36 (36) Robin Haase(Netherlands) 1168
37 (37) Philipp Kohlschreiber(Germany) 1135
38 (38) Ivo Karlovic(Croatia) 1125
39 (39) Gilles Simon(France) 1110
40 (40) Paolo Lorenzi(Italy) 1100
41 (41) Benoit Paire(France) 1085
42 (45) Kyle Edmund(Britain) 1082
43 (42) Fernando Verdasco(Spain) 1080
44 (43) Yuichi Sugita(Japan) 1045
45 (44) Ryan Harrison(U.S.) 1041
46 (46) Steve Johnson(U.S.) 1000
47 (49) Chung Hyeon(South Korea) 992
48 (48) Aljaz Bedene(Britain) 958
49 (56) Jan-Lennard Struff(Germany) 953
50 (50) Joao Sousa(Portugal) 950
51 (51) Jared Donaldson(U.S.) 928
52 (47) Viktor Troicki(Serbia) 920
53 (54) Andrey Rublev(Russia) 890
54 (53) Daniil Medvedev(Russia) 889
55 (55) Jiri Vesely(Czech Republic) 885
56 (67) Damir Dzumhur(Bosnia and Herzegovina) 855
57 (57) Donald Young(U.S.) 830
58 (58) Horacio Zeballos(Argentina) 823
59 (52) Leonardo Mayer(Argentina) 815
60 (59) Federico Delbonis(Argentina) 805
61 (62) Borna Coric(Croatia) 796
62 (60) Nikoloz Basilashvili(Georgia) 794
63 (61) Lu Yen-Hsun(Taiwan) 761
64 (63) Alexandr Dolgopolov(Ukraine) 751
65 (64) Pierre-Hugues Herbert(France) 742
66 (65) Steve Darcis(Belgium) 741
67 (66) Janko Tipsarevic(Serbia) 736
68 (68) Rogerio Dutra Silva(Brazil) 723
69 (69) Denis Shapovalov(Canada) 721
70 (71) Frances Tiafoe(U.S.) 705
71 (72) Dudi Sela(Israel) 703
72 (73) Guido Pella(Argentina) 692
73 (74) Jordan Thompson(Australia) 691
74 (75) Florian Mayer(Germany) 688
75 (70) Andrey Kuznetsov(Russia) 686
76 (76) Thomaz Bellucci(Brazil) 682
77 (77) Ernesto Escobedo(U.S.) 671
78 (78) Vasek Pospisil(Canada) 662
79 (79) Jeremy Chardy(France) 655
80 (80) Malek Jaziri(Tunisia) 650
81 (86) Andreas Seppi(Italy) 646
82 (81) Thomas Fabbiano(Italy) 646
83 (82) Marcos Baghdatis(Cyprus) 645
84 (83) Norbert Gombos(Slovakia) 639
85 (84) Dusan Lajovic(Serbia) 637
86 (85) Denis Istomin(Uzbekistan) 634
87 (88) Marius Copil(Romania) 618
88 (89) Blaz Kavcic(Slovenia) 617
89 (87) Daniel Evans(Britain) 612
90 (90) Victor Estrella(Dominican Republic) 610
91 (91) Alessandro Giannessi(Italy) 610
92 (92) Nicolas Almagro(Spain) 590
93 (93) Nicolas Kicker(Argentina) 590
94 (94) Henri Laaksonen(Switzerland) 574
95 (96) Carlos Berlocq(Argentina) 566
96 (95) Ruben Bemelmans(Belgium) 562
97 (97) Sergiy Stakhovsky(Ukraine) 560
98 (99) Laslo Djere(Serbia) 551
99 (100) Evgeny Donskoy(Russia) 549
100 (107) Julien Benneteau(France) 545

 

[herios]

Career high this week:

47. Hyeon Chung 21y
56. Damir Dzumhur 25y

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Now that the first round is over, the #1 situation can be expressed in much simpler terms.

Roger becomes #1 after this USO if and only if he reaches semifinals and does not lose to Rafa if he faces him. In all other situations, Rafa will end up as #1 after USO.

 

[Moxie]

I was kinda waiting for @britbox and @herios to do there usual, but there are a lot of new Career Highs this week, at least on the live rankings. (Though maybe that's why they didn't do the post, as we're mid-Slam.) I'll come back on that then, if they don't post. A lot of interesting changes.

 

[herios]

I was kinda waiting for @britbox and @herios to do there usual, but there are a lot of new Career Highs this week, at least on the live rankings. (Though maybe that's why they didn't do the post, as we're mid-Slam.) I'll come back on that then, if they don't post. A lot of interesting changes.

Hi moxie midway through a slam, there is no official update of the rankings. . The next one will be released on next Monday. But you are right, many players will be reaching new career highs. But we will have to wait to see how they will look like.

 

[isabelle]

Delpo"ll be N°24 next monday

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa will be ahead of Fed by 1160 pts even if he somehow manages to lose the finals. Most likely he will win and hence his lead will be 1960 pts. With that kind of lead at this point of time in the year, it is almost impossible for Fed to try to catch him and so Fed will give up. Not to mention that Rafa plays at least one extra tourney in the remainder of the year (Beijing) and who knows when Roger's back will heal.

 

[Moxie]

Rafa will be ahead of Fed by 1160 pts even if he somehow manages to lose the finals. Most likely he will win and hence his lead will be 1960 pts. With that kind of lead at this point of time in the year, it is almost impossible for Fed to try to catch him and so Fed will give up. Not to mention that Rafa plays at least one extra tourney in the remainder of the year (Beijing) and who knows when Roger's back will heal.

I thought it was you that said he shouldn't shut down the year if he was healthy, but maybe it was someone else. Anyway, if Roger isn't in bad shape, he has nothing to defend the rest of the year. Rafa doesn't have much to defend, either, but this is a good part of the year for Roger. You don't think he should go for it, if he's fit?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I thought it was you that said he shouldn't shut down the year if he was healthy, but maybe it was someone else. Anyway, if Roger isn't in bad shape, he has nothing to defend the rest of the year. Rafa doesn't have much to defend, either, but this is a good part of the year for Roger. You don't think he should go for it, if he's fit?

Yes, I was the one who said Roger should not shut it down if he recovers fully. That is not inconsistent with the above post. All I am saying is that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for Roger to get YE#1 if Rafa wins USO.

 

[Moxie]

Yes, I was the one who said Roger should not shut it down if he recovers fully. That is not inconsistent with the above post. All I am saying is that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for Roger to get YE#1 if Rafa wins USO.

Sorry, not trying to accuse you of being inconsistent, just thinking there's a decent shot for Roger, if he's healthy. There are 2 more MS1000 and the YEC on offer, plus a few other places for Roger to pick up points. Look, I wouldn't be sad if the whole top of the pile buggers off and Rafa finally gets his YEC. I guess it's a wait-and-see as to how Fed is feeling, as to what he needs to do.

 

[britbox]

Roger should dial in any hope of getting to #1 before the years out. I think he'd probably need to sweep both Masters and the YEC - not worth it. If he really wants the #1, then he's better working in some clay court tournaments next year... personally, I think he's better forgetting about it now... and just worry about preparing for majors.

 

[Moxie]

Roger should dial in any hope of getting to #1 before the years out. I think he'd probably need to sweep both Masters and the YEC - not worth it. If he really wants the #1, then he's better working in some clay court tournaments next year... personally, I think he's better forgetting about it now... and just worry about preparing for majors.

Fair enough about YE#1, but if/when he's healthy, he should play, and buff up the point totals, no?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fair enough about YE#1, but if/when he's healthy, he should play, and buff up the point totals, no?

Yes, that is exactly what I was saying.

It would be very difficult to outperform Rafa by 2000 points in the rest of the season. You should consider that Rafa is playing every tourney that Roger will be playing and in addition Rafa will be playing in Beijing.

However, YE#1 is not the only reason to play in the remaining part of the year. There are several other reasons such as
1. Winning WTF would give sole possession of that record.
2. He is also in the chase for total # of titles (behind only to Lendl and Connors).
3. Generally raking up points when no one worthy is around would help him with good seeding spot in next year's GSs.

Having said that none of the remaining events are worthy of participating if he is not fully recovered (or close to it) from back issues and other niggling injuries, if any.

 

[Moxie]

Yes, that is exactly what I was saying.

It would be very difficult to outperform Rafa by 2000 points in the rest of the season. You should consider that Rafa is playing every tourney that Roger will be playing and in addition Rafa will be playing in Beijing.

However, YE#1 is not the only reason to play in the remaining part of the year. There are several other reasons such as
1. Winning WTF would give sole possession of that record.
2. He is also in the chase for total # of titles (behind only to Lendl and Connors).
3. Generally raking up points when no one worthy is around would help him with good seeding spot in next year's GSs.

Having said that none of the remaining events are worthy of participating if he is not fully recovered (or close to it) from back issues and other niggling injuries, if any.

That makes sense. Thanks for that intel!

 

[DarthFed]

He already has sole possession of YEC with 6. Only small reason to play this Fall is to add a 7th for some breathing room with Nole. Aside from that I'd rather he rest and come back pissed and ready. He's fucked up badly enough with the worst decision of his career.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Federer is in a interesting position right now if Nadal wins tomorrow.

He will be behind by 1960 points with the Asia indoor season coming up. While he could certainly catch Nadal this year, the real question can his body hold up if plays the remaining tournaments.

I agree that if he feels healthy he should go play a lot of matches so he could get the number 1 rankings. However, I am kinda worried that he might overplay himself if he tries to play too much even if it is the indoor season.

He is 36 years old so the body does not refresh quickly as a 28 year old. He really does have to be careful in the next couple of months so he does not jeopardize his 2018 season...