Roger's Quest for #1 (and Rafa's QF exit implications)

[Johancf]

Just a reminder that Roger has his foundation match for Africa on 5th of March. That could influence his decisions.

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[Moxie]

I can’t see him going to Rotterdam—Dubai maybe.

Doesn't he live part of the year in Dubai?

 

[Moxie]

Just a reminder that Roger has his foundation match for Africa on 5th of March. That could influence his decisions.

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Welcome, Johancf!

 

[calitennis127]

Wow! This 20 has really got you bitter

Lol

 

[calitennis127]

I didn't realize Rotterdam is just two weeks away. I thought it was closer in the schedule to Dubai so he could choose between playing one of them. Highly doubt he plays Rotterdam now and frankly he shouldn't.

If Federer is going to skip clay, why not play Rotterdam? I say take the chance for #1 while it's there.

I think Moxie's comparison to Nadal going there is a bit off because Federer wins on hardcourts more effortlessly than Nadal ever has. Winning at Rotterdam is more of a light jog for Federer, whereas for Nadal it is a draining experience. I'm afraid the comparison falls short in that respect.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Just a reminder that Roger has his foundation match for Africa on 5th of March. That could influence his decisions.

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He plays Sock in that in SanJose on March 4th. It won't influence his decisions. This match is right after Dubai and right before IW. So, he is not making a special trip to play in San Jose. It is just a stop before heading to the desert for IW.

 

[Federberg]

Doesn't he live part of the year in Dubai?

he has a place there, but I believe his appearance contract has finished now.

 

[Moxie]

Wow! This 20 has really got you bitter

No, it was 18 that did it. 19 and 20 have just been salt in the wound. :lulz2:

 

[DarthFed]

If Federer is going to skip clay, why not play Rotterdam? I say take the chance for #1 while it's there.

I think Moxie's comparison to Nadal going there is a bit off because Federer wins on hardcourts more effortlessly than Nadal ever has. Winning at Rotterdam is more of a light jog for Federer, whereas for Nadal it is a draining experience. I'm afraid the comparison falls short in that respect.

I rather he just play Dubai. Good chance he would get #1 there

 

[El Dude]

Here are some numbers.

Right now Roger is 155 points behind Rafa. He can reach #1 by:

A) Playing and reaching the SF of Rotterdam (win three matches) and/or
B) Winning 99 fewer or more points at Dubai/Acapulco (when those points come off, Roger will actually be 100 points ahead of Rafa).

Roger will probably get back to #1 after Dubai/Acapulco unless Rafa wins Acapulco and Roger doesn't win Dubai, or Roger goes out early and Rafa reaches the SF or later. In other words: #1 is on Roger's racket, at least for a week.

Once we get to the Sunshine Double, Rafa will probably take the #1 back because he has 690 points to defend vs. Roger's 2000. So going into clay season, Rafa will probably be #1.

At that point Roger has a very good chance of regaining #1 even if he doesn't do anything during clay season AND Rafa doesn't repeat his 2017 results. Rafa has 4180 clay points to defend, while Roger has 0. Actually, taking off all points through clay season - including Sunshine Double - and Roger has +3470 points going into grass season. Now if Roger were to, say, play a clay Masters and Roland Garros and pick up even 500+ points, his chances of holding onto #1 increase substantially.

If he's #1 going into clay season, it is hard imagining Rafa catching him and Roger really could be year-end #1, unless Novak or someone else (Cilic?) comes on strong.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Roger not only has a very good chance of taking #1 for a week after Dubai/Acapulco, but regaining it sometime in clay season and potentially holding onto it for awhile.

 

[Moxie]

Thanks for the math. Question remains, though: what do you think Roger should do between now and Wimbledon? And what do you think he will? Clay season is a big question.

 

[El Dude]

I have no idea, Moxie.

Should do? Well, go with his plan but play it by ear. As I've said, I don't think he'll play Rotterdam. I think he'll play Dubai and Indian Wells, and probably Miami, and then re-assess. I wouldn't be surprised to see him play Madrid and then Roland Garros, but think it is still less likely to happen, maybe 30-70%.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Roger already indicated that he has trouble in playing back to back tourneys.

Dubai, IW and Miami is a continuous stretch of play for 5 weeks (IW and M being 2 week long tourneys). So, Fed should not play in all three of them. He should skip at least one of them. A replacement for the tourney that he skips would be Rotterdam (the #1 ranking carrot dangling in Rotterdam is just a useful byproduct).

If he plans to play some clay (keep it minimal, just Rome and RG), he should skip Miami so that he gets 8 week long rest before Rome.

If he does not plan to play on clay at all, he should play Rotterdam, skip Dubai (exception: If for some reason, #1 did not materialize in Rotterdam, he should play Dubai also) and then play both IW and M (as they have 1000 pts each).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK, it looks like Roger is not even thinking about Rotterdam. But, he is considering playing in Dubai . Although he normally plays in Dubai, his contract there has expired and he has not entered the tourney. The only way he can play there now is by getting a wild card, which the organizers would be happy to give.

 

[El Dude]

OK, it looks like Roger is not even thinking about Rotterdam. But, he is considering playing in Dubai . Although he normally plays in Dubai, his contract there has expired and he has not entered the tourney. The only way he can play there now is by getting a wild card, which the organizers would be happy to give.

For me the most interesting takeaway from that article is that he is uncertain about clay season; this implies that he is actually thinking about playing on clay, which almost surprises me.

The exhaustion is worth noting, also. He definitely should skip Rotterdam, then, but I do hope he plays Dubai so he can take #1 for at least a week.

 

[mrzz]

I hope plays at least a little clay. Honestly I don't like this complete exclusion. Clay is important for tennis and Federer knows that. I am almost sure he will play at least one tournament. Yes, it is not the most strategical move of all times, I know.

 

[Federberg]

I hope plays at least a little clay. Honestly I don't like this complete exclusion. Clay is important for tennis and Federer knows that. I am almost sure he will play at least one tournament. Yes, it is not the most strategical move of all times, I know.

he's paid his dues mate

 

[Federberg]

I would be happy if he skips Dubai, and focusses on IW and Miami

 

[MartyB]

I hope plays at least a little clay. Honestly I don't like this complete exclusion. Clay is important for tennis and Federer knows that. I am almost sure he will play at least one tournament. Yes, it is not the most strategical move of all times, I know.

I loved Fed's abilities & talents on clay. If it wasn't for that "other" player who shall remain nameless not sure how many French Open titles he might have won. If I were the clay tournament sponsors I would be quite pissed off. If his knee is healed and he schedules his tournaments wisely he can play a select few of them this year and add some luster to those tournaments and it would be great for the tennis fan. On the other hand as others have expressed I have a feeling that when Fed finally declares to play the clay again it will be his swan song year. It's all about Wimbledon for him I think and he will gladly pass on the clay if he thinks that it will at all affect his preparation. .

 

[DarthFed]

I think he will play Dubai and I hope he does. Might as well go for the #1 now in a tournament that isn't near a major. And the reason I say that is that I don't want him to chase it later in the year and do something stupid like last year.