Prediction: Alcaraz to win 24 slams, the Calendar Grand Slam, over 450 weeks at no.1, 45 masters 1000 titles and 10-1 h2h vs Djokovic.

[Nadalfan2013]

Alcaraz will become the greatest player ever, of course in big part because of Nadal underperforming due to his countless of injuries, but still he will literally erase Djokovic from the tennis map. Thoughts?

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Bump

 

[Jelenafan]

Nadalfan13 I’m not sure yet of the longtime prospects for Alcaraz , too many unknowns such as health, rivals, etc, but hey , as of now the sky is the limit.
I will say he has a chance to carve out a nice niche for himself in tennis history/legacy. I always thought that grass would be his toughest challenge yet he won Wimbledn just turned 20.
The Open Era started with the Slams being played in 2 different surfaces: it went from

1968-1974 3 on grass, 1 on red clay

1975-1977 2 on grass, 1 on red clay, 1 on hardtru clay

1978-1987 2 on grass, 1 on red clay, 1 on HC

1988 - 1 on grass, 1 on red clay, 2 on HC
In this “era “ of 3 surfaces , only 4 have won all 4 slams, they all had their challenges so I’ve put their age when they slagged the 4th to complete the career slam:
Andre Agassi 29

Roger Federer 26

Rafa Nadal 24

Novak Djokovic 28

I think Rafa was the youngest getting to 2 & 3 different slams by age 22
Caveat: Real life trumps expectations of course….

But Carlos Alcaraz has a great shot at winning, say the AO & FO next year, he would have won all 4 slams by age 21 or even if he does it by age 22, then he slips his toe into another level of tennis greats conversation.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Nadalfan13 I’m not sure yet of the longtime prospects for Alcaraz , too many unknowns such as health, rivals, etc, but hey , as of now the sky is the limit.
I will say he has a chance to carve out a nice niche for himself in tennis history/legacy. I always thought that grass would be his toughest challenge yet he won Wimbledn just turned 20.
The Open Era started with the Slams being played in 2 different surfaces: it went from

1968-1974 3 on grass, 1 on red clay

1975-1977 2 on grass, 1 on red clay, 1 on hardtru clay

1978-1987 2 on grass, 1 on red clay, 1 on HC

1988 - 1 on grass, 1 on red clay, 2 on HC
In this “era “ of 3 surfaces , only 4 have won all 4 slams, they all had their challenges so I’ve put their age when they slagged the 4th to complete the career slam:
Andre Agassi 29

Roger Federer 26

Rafa Nadal 24

Novak Djokovic 28

I think Rafa was the youngest getting to 2 & 3 different slams by age 22
Caveat: Real life trumps expectations of course….

But Carlos Alcaraz has a great shot at winning, say the AO & FO next year, he would have won all 4 slams by age 21 or even if he does it by age 22, then he slips his toe into another level of tennis greats conversation.

Yes I agree with you that Nadal > Alcaraz > Djokovic. Well said.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Nadalfan 2013,

I am a big fan of Alcaraz, I am still cautious in saying how many GS titles he will win,
To me if he wants to win a Roland Garros title he has to tighten his defense, especially on clay, just watch Rafa he is the 'master of it', turning defense into offense.
In regards to the AO, which is a slower HC surface, though the bounce is high, he has the game, though it was a pity he had to withdraw this year due to a leg injury. It will be interesting to watch him at the AO in 2024.
First he has to defend his title at the USO this year, which I feel is always a harder task than when you win a GS title.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm also cautious about how many slams Carlos will win, but I'll feel a lot more confident about him becoming the next ATG once he wins that 3rd slam (and hopefully, that will be sooner rather than later). There have been players that showed the potential at that age, most recently Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt, but they never won a 3rd slam.

 

[Jelenafan]

I'm also cautious about how many slams Carlos will win, but I'll feel a lot more confident about him becoming the next ATG once he wins that 3rd slam (and hopefully, that will be sooner rather than later). There have been players that showed the potential at that age, most recently Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt, but they never won a 3rd slam.

Curiously enough they both beat Pistol Pete decisively in the 2000 and 2001 USO final to snag their first Slam. With 21 & 20 year olds winning the USO back to back it seemed to usher the start of their “era”.

I will say Safin seemed to have it all, a surprising quick tall guy with pantherlike movement and explosive power. Hewitt seemed to deliver his potential by winning Wimbledon the next year.

Look how things actually worked out.

Hewitt was essentially an exceptional counterpuncher that soon was overtaken by players who could overpower him and Safin lacked focus.

Neither seems the case with Alcaraz.

 

[Fiero425]

Curiously enough they both beat Pistol Pete decisively in the 2000 and 2001 USO final to snag their first Slam. With 21 & 20 year olds winning the USO back to back it seemed to usher the start of their “era”.

I will say Safin seemed to have it all, a surprising quick tall guy with pantherlike movement and explosive power. Hewitt seemed to deliver his potential by winning Wimbledon the next year.

Look how things actually worked out.

Hewitt was essentially an exceptional counterpuncher that soon was overtaken by players who could overpower him and Safin lacked focus.

Neither seems the case with Alcaraz.

Hey; trying to take over my job? I'm supposed to be the resident "Historian" harking back 25-40+ years! Didn't get a chance to highlite accomplishments of Hewitt & Safin to destroy Pete in back to back US Open finals; both becoming #1 for a bit! BTW, Marat's sister Dinara Safina also became #1 for a few weeks w/o winning a Major IIRC!

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Hey; trying to take over my job? I'm supposed to be the resident "Historian" harking back 25-40+ years! Didn't get a chance to highlite accomplishments of Hewitt & Safin to destroy Pete in back to back US Open finals; both becoming #1 for a bit! BTW, Marat's sister Dinara Safina also became #1 for a few weeks w/o winning a Major IIRC!

You, going back 25-40+ years? And here I thought you were like 16 years old.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I'm also cautious about how many slams Carlos will win, but I'll feel a lot more confident about him becoming the next ATG once he wins that 3rd slam (and hopefully, that will be sooner rather than later). There have been players that showed the potential at that age, most recently Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt, but they never won a 3rd slam.

I just saw your post, agree I am also cautious with how many slams Alcaraz will win, he is just 20 years old and many things can happen in our game
In saying that out of all the younger players on the Tour I include Rune, Sinner, he has the most weapons, maturity and focus, Rune and Sinner have technical issues in their games also physical issues which they both have to address.
In regards to winning RG, I feel he has to strengthen his defense on the clay, that is an important factor in winning at RG, no doubt he will do that, when you compare Alcaraz to Rafa at 20 ( I dont like comparisons) though I am doing this to state a fact, Alcaraz is more offensive minded than Rafa, still Rafa had great defensive skill as we all have seen, much better than Alcaraz at age 20 on the clay..
Yes he has the game to win the AO, though he was injured this year and had to withdraw
First and foremost lets see if he can defend his USO title this year.

 

[Moxie]

I just saw your post, agree I am also cautious with how many slams Alcaraz will win, he is just 20 years old and many things can happen in our game

Agreed that all of this is conjecture, but it's fun. No one can see the future, except for @kskate2 and her (mostly) well-guarded crystal ball. Curious as to what she sees.

In saying that out of all the younger players on the Tour I include Rune, Sinner, he has the most weapons, maturity and focus, Rune and Sinner have technical issues in their games also physical issues which they both have to address.

This is where I think that Alcaraz may have some window for hoovering up some hardware, and weeks at #1, as well. We are on the cusp of a changing era. Rafa has one foot out of tennis, (hopefully just the bad one,) and Novak, while still full of game and ambition, won't keep winning big titles for THAT much longer. Time waits for no man. Alcaraz has a mature game and a good head, (along with a great coach) at a young age. Unless the clown princes step up, along with some we've got some hopes for like FAA and others, to challenge him, he may have a fair run until the younger talents catch up.

In regards to winning RG, I feel he has to strengthen his defense on the clay, that is an important factor in winning at RG, no doubt he will do that, when you compare Alcaraz to Rafa at 20 ( I dont like comparisons) though I am doing this to state a fact, Alcaraz is more offensive minded than Rafa, still Rafa had great defensive skill as we all have seen, much better than Alcaraz at age 20 on the clay..
Yes he has the game to win the AO, though he was injured this year and had to withdraw
First and foremost lets see if he can defend his USO title this year.

We have seen that Alcaraz is a quick study, so who knows what his game looks like next year? Hopefully he's in good shape for AO, as that will be interesting. Obviously, first order is this year, and the USO to defend. I don't think he HAS to defend it, but it will be important to make a good showing. As to the rest of this year, I'm not sure how much he has to defend. YEC would be a good goal, since he couldn't play last year. Then, just stay healthy and don't overplay.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Agreed that all of this is conjecture, but it's fun. No one can see the future, except for @kskate2 and her (mostly) well-guarded crystal ball. Curious as to what she sees.

This is where I think that Alcaraz may have some window for hoovering up some hardware, and weeks at #1, as well. We are on the cusp of a changing era. Rafa has one foot out of tennis, (hopefully just the bad one,) and Novak, while still full of game and ambition, won't keep winning big titles for THAT much longer. Time waits for no man. Alcaraz has a mature game and a good head, (along with a great coach) at a young age. Unless the clown princes step up, along with some we've got some hopes for like FAA and others, to challenge him, he may have a fair run until the younger talents catch up.

We have seen that Alcaraz is a quick study, so who knows what his game looks like next year? Hopefully he's in good shape for AO, as that will be interesting. Obviously, first order is this year, and the USO to defend. I don't think he HAS to defend it, but it will be important to make a good showing. As to the rest of this year, I'm not sure how much he has to defend. YEC would be a good goal, since he couldn't play last year. Then, just stay healthy and don't overplay.

Yes we would all love to have Kelli crystal ball lol! even without it Kelli has been pretty spot on in her outcomes of matches
Agree one thing I really admire about Charly is that he is a ' quick study' just looked what he achieved at Wimbledon this year? won Queens and just got better on the grass at Wimbledon and won.
In regards to the rest of the year, he has a good and steady influence coach in JCF and hopefully he does not over play, as there is really no need to.
I am looking forward to see how he handles the pressure of defending his title at the USO this year.

 

[Moxie]

Yes we would all love to have Kelli crystal ball lol! even without it Kelli has been pretty spot on in her outcomes of matches
Agree one thing I really admire about Charly is that he is a ' quick study' just looked what he achieved at Wimbledon this year? won Queens and just got better on the grass at Wimbledon and won.
In regards to the rest of the year, he has a good and steady influence coach in JCF and hopefully he does not over play, as there is really no need to.
I am looking forward to see how he handles the pressure of defending his title at the USO this year.

I'm going to assume that he'll play both Roger's Cup in Canada, and Cincy, but hopefully will keep eyes on the prize in New York. Maybe I'll get to see him play live this year! Hope so.

 

[kskate2]

Yes we would all love to have Kelli crystal ball lol! even without it Kelli has been pretty spot on in her outcomes of matches
Agree one thing I really admire about Charly is that he is a ' quick study' just looked what he achieved at Wimbledon this year? won Queens and just got better on the grass at Wimbledon and won.
In regards to the rest of the year, he has a good and steady influence coach in JCF and hopefully he does not over play, as there is really no need to.
I am looking forward to see how he handles the pressure of defending his title at the USO this year.

Welp I'm so glad you asked. Obviously a lot of this depends on how long he plays, but my crystal ball sees double digit slam total for Charlie. Something in the 12-15 range. I don't think he will get to the upper teens or even 20s like the Big 3. The other youngsters will arrive eventually and take some crowns.