Pre-Gaming Roland Garros

[Moxie]

The most open Roland Garros in recent memory? We've already started prognosticating, so let's have a thread.

 

[El Dude]

You saw my posts in the Madrid thread, but yes, I agree that--right now--it is wide open. But Rome should re-arrange that. We need to see how Rafa and Novak look, in particular, but also the health of Carlos (especially) and (to a lesser degree) Sinner.

If nothing looks definitive, then it gets really interesting and the Dynamic Duo, Tsitsipas and Zverev, really start salivating. And where is Sascha in your poll, Moxie? We can also take Ruud and Rublev somewhat seriously, and Medvedev--far from a clay wizard, but still a good player--becomes a factor. And of course darkhorses like Grigor (!), Rune, even somewhat like De Minaur could sneak in with the right draw and peaking at the right time. Brat Shelton?! Who knows.

Anyhow, right now my Slamless darkhorses are Tsitsipas, Zverev, and Ruud. I think all three have a non-zero chance of taking home their first trophy. Maybe Rublev, too, but after those three.

But again, I think it likely that Rome will re-arrange the current situation, and at least one of the four mentioned will emerge as a serious contender. Hard to say who, though. I think Rafa will play his heart out and it is not hard imagine some magic happening for him. Novak doesn't even need to find his A game - his B game would possibly be enough to take the trophy. Alcaraz, if healthy, is probably the favorite, but that's a big if. Sinner seems least likely of the four.

 

[Moxie]

You saw my posts in the Madrid thread, but yes, I agree that--right now--it is wide open. But Rome should re-arrange that. We need to see how Rafa and Novak look, in particular, but also the health of Carlos (especially) and (to a lesser degree) Sinner.

If nothing looks definitive, then it gets really interesting and the Dynamic Duo, Tsitsipas and Zverev, really start salivating. And where is Sascha in your poll, Moxie? We can also take Ruud and Rublev somewhat seriously, and Medvedev--far from a clay wizard, but still a good player--becomes a factor. And of course darkhorses like Grigor (!), Rune, even somewhat like De Minaur could sneak in with the right draw and peaking at the right time. Brat Shelton?! Who knows.

Anyhow, right now my Slamless darkhorses are Tsitsipas, Zverev, and Ruud. I think all three have a non-zero chance of taking home their first trophy. Maybe Rublev, too, but after those three.

But again, I think it likely that Rome will re-arrange the current situation, and at least one of the four mentioned will emerge as a serious contender. Hard to say who, though. I think Rafa will play his heart out and it is not hard imagine some magic happening for him. Novak doesn't even need to find his A game - his B game would possibly be enough to take the trophy. Alcaraz, if healthy, is probably the favorite, but that's a big if. Sinner seems least likely of the four.

OMG, I clearly have a blind spot where Zverev is concerned. I knew I must have forgotten someone when I added Struff for Front's benefit, but he's the first one who would have reminded me how well Zed was playing in that SF v. Rafa a couple of years ago when he suffered the horrible injury. He should be in there, at least theoretically. While I think he could go deep, you know I think he's a folder, so he'd be pretty far down on my list to win it. But he could.

I think Rome should rearrange the odds somewhat, but it's only one tournament, and there are still a lot of question marks, which I don't think Rome can solve. Even if Rafa and Novak come through looking really good, I don't think they can be counted on anymore, due to age. Nadal, if his body holds out, can never be counted out at RG...but that's a big if. Novak could theoretically win it with his B game. Except, look at Wimbledon last year: he had the great draw, never got out of his B-game, and that was his downfall in the final. Alcaraz was sharper, but that was Father Time on Novak, too. The draw will be interesting. I think this year it will be full of spoilers. There are lots of players playing well enough to ruin your day, even if not well enough to win it. Look at Lehecka. And Fonseca. And Felix. I won't be surprised if this French Open becomes a war of attrition. Not like Madrid, I hope, obviously, with the injuries. Just that, more than it has for 19 years, I think it could be rather a question of "last man standing."

 

[lomaha]

If it's not Sinner, Alcaraz, Nadal or Novak - then I think it will be Zverev. But I hope for Rune (but don't believe it).

 

[rafanoy1992]

OMG, I clearly have a blind spot where Zverev is concerned. I knew I must have forgotten someone when I added Struff for Front's benefit, but he's the first one who would have reminded me how well Zed was playing in that SF v. Rafa a couple of years ago when he suffered the horrible injury. He should be in there, at least theoretically. While I think he could go deep, you know I think he's a folder, so he'd be pretty far down on my list to win it. But he could.

I think Rome should rearrange the odds somewhat, but it's only one tournament, and there are still a lot of question marks, which I don't think Rome can solve. Even if Rafa and Novak come through looking really good, I don't think they can be counted on anymore, due to age. Nadal, if his body holds out, can never be counted out at RG...but that's a big if. Novak could theoretically win it with his B game. Except, look at Wimbledon last year: he had the great draw, never got out of his B-game, and that was his downfall in the final. Alcaraz was sharper, but that was Father Time on Novak, too. The draw will be interesting. I think this year it will be full of spoilers. There are lots of players playing well enough to ruin your day, even if not well enough to win it. Look at Lehecka. And Fonseca. And Felix. I won't be surprised if this French Open becomes a war of attrition. Not like Madrid, I hope, obviously, with the injuries. Just that, more than it has for 19 years, I think it could be rather a question of "last man standing."

If it is war of attrition, I expect Casper Ruud in the final 4 for the 3rd consecutive year. One thing about Ruud especially on Clay is that he is physically fit. I have never seen him “hurt” or “injured” during this time of year which speaks volume about his fitness level.

As your initial question, I do believe that it is just matter of last man standing or luck of the draw.

One little wrinkle about RG this year is that it will host the Olympics a couple weeks after Wimbledon. Some of these players will gauge on how much energy they have to spend knowing that they will have to come back a couple weeks later.

 

[Moxie]

If it is war of attrition, I expect Casper Ruud in the final 4 for the 3rd consecutive year. One thing about Ruud especially on Clay is that he is physically fit. I have never seen him “hurt” or “injured” during this time of year which speaks volume about his fitness level.

As your initial question, I do believe that it is just matter of last man standing or luck of the draw.

One little wrinkle about RG this year is that it will host the Olympics a couple weeks after Wimbledon. Some of these players will gauge on how much energy they have to spend knowing that they will have to come back a couple weeks later.

Good points about Casper Ruud. He's fit, and sturdy, even if not especially thrilling. This could be his year.

As to anyone holding their water for the Olympics, I don't buy it. Remember that the Olympics offers no points, so even lower-ranked players will give it all up at RG, and see what they have left for the Olympics. IMO. Thank goodness the French Open comes first.

 

[don_fabio]

I voted this:

Djokovic
Obvious, he is still a favorite at any slam he enters and now maybe slightly even more due to competition having troubles with injuries, but he is not the kind of favorite he used to be. The gap is small and he can have a bad day too, lose to some inspired player.

Tsitsipas
Looks good and healthy. Has game to win RG, but the mentality is an issue. Now that he is not with Badosa anymore, he can concentrate on what really matters and that is tennis.

Alcaraz
Since you only gave 3 options I had to decide between Charlie and Sinner and chose the spaniard. His arm looks like a huge worry, but I hope he can rest it enough and heal so he can play himself into form on RG. To me he is a better clay player than Sinner.

Nadal looked kind of old and slow from what I've seen so far, serve issues, volleys, etc, but that can change anytime, we have seen it before. Let's see how he does in Rome, it will tell us more where his game is at the moment, but he can never be counted out.

Expect Ruud do go deep as usual. He is a safe bet on clay, except to win a whole thing.

Zverev seems out of form currently, so not sure what we can expect from him, maybe some 5 set matches in early rounds.

Biggest unknown for me from top 10 guys is Rune. I have no idea what his form looks like at the moment, so let's see how he does in Rome too.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I voted this:

Djokovic
Obvious, he is still a favorite at any slam he enters and now maybe slightly even more due to competition having troubles with injuries, but he is not the kind of favorite he used to be. The gap is small and he can have a bad day too, lose to some inspired player.

Tsitsipas
Looks good and healthy. Has game to win RG, but the mentality is an issue. Now that he is not with Badosa anymore, he can concentrate on what really matters and that is tennis.

Alcaraz
Since you only gave 3 options I had to decide between Charlie and Sinner and chose the spaniard. His arm looks like a huge worry, but I hope he can rest it enough and heal so he can play himself into form on RG. To me he is a better clay player than Sinner.

Nadal looked kind of old and slow from what I've seen so far, serve issues, volleys, etc, but that can change anytime, we have seen it before. Let's see how he does in Rome, it will tell us more where his game is at the moment, but he can never be counted out.

Expect Ruud do go deep as usual. He is a safe bet on clay, except to win a whole thing.

Zverev seems out of form currently, so not sure what we can expect from him, maybe some 5 set matches in early rounds.

Biggest unknown for me from top 10 guys is Rune. I have no idea what his form looks like at the moment, so let's see how he does in Rome too.

Don,

Tsitsipas was having 'mental issues' before his now defunct relationship with Paula Badosa, he does have the game to win RG, I am still out on him, until he does do it
I feel this years RG is quite open quite frankly with players under injury clouds.
Alcaraz when healthy, is a player that can enter RG and play himself into form as he has the weapons to win RG, in hindsight he should not have played Madrid and rested his forearm.
Sinner to me is still a 'work in progress on clay" now with this hip injury, he is not 100% certain to play at RG.
I am going to wait to see what form players like Rune who has a good game on clay, Zverev, Tsitsipas,Ruud have in Rome, and that also includes Novak, who usually plays well in Rome, also the defending champion Medvedev, who is also under a cloud injury wise, having to retire in Madrid, it might give us a clearer picture going forward for Roland Garros.

 

[El Dude]

The frustrating thing about Tsitsipas is that if you could ask for a player's overall package of skills and physicality, he wouldn't be far down the list - behind only Rafa/Novak, Alcaraz, and Sinner. He should be the next guy, or at least right there with Medvedev. He's still having a very good career - only 35 players have more big titles than he does (4) and presumably he's far from over. I mean, guys like Hewitt and Roddick only won 6 big titles.

I should probably do the calculation, but it would be interesting to see what the ratio of Masters/TF/Olympics is to Slams, as far as individual players go. I imagine that the average isn't more than about 2:1, or maybe 3:1.

 

[Front242]

Who knows with Tsistipas really. He was conned big time with the bathroom break and famous special magic potion while was up 2 sets. He may have won that year if not for that. Fair to say it destroyed his confidence more than mental issues. He also can't play without coaching help which is pitiful.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

One little wrinkle about RG this year is that it will host the Olympics a couple weeks after Wimbledon. Some of these players will gauge on how much energy they have to spend knowing that they will have to come back a couple weeks later.

I really wish they would have moved Wimbledon to after the Olympics. I just don't like the changing from clay to grass then back to clay in such a short time period. That will increase the chances of players suffering injuries that could potential jeopardize their US Open. Plus, I would have liked to see the ATP/WTA experiment this year with an August Wimbledon (and maybe a delayed US Open swing/October US Open). The current fall schedule doesn't really move the needle for me.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Who knows with Tsistipas really. He was conned big time with the bathroom break and famous special magic potion while was up 2 sets. He may have won that year if not for that. Fair to say it destroyed his confidence more than mental issues. He also can't play without coaching help which is pitiful.

Even though the Greek God gets non stop coaching from his father during matches, he still hasnt improved his bhand and also bhand slice, his weak area's, with a proper coach the technique on his backhand would improve, apart from his mental issues which in the past have being his undoing

 

[Moxie]

I voted this:

Djokovic
Obvious, he is still a favorite at any slam he enters and now maybe slightly even more due to competition having troubles with injuries, but he is not the kind of favorite he used to be. The gap is small and he can have a bad day too, lose to some inspired player.

Tsitsipas
Looks good and healthy. Has game to win RG, but the mentality is an issue. Now that he is not with Badosa anymore, he can concentrate on what really matters and that is tennis.

Alcaraz
Since you only gave 3 options I had to decide between Charlie and Sinner and chose the spaniard. His arm looks like a huge worry, but I hope he can rest it enough and heal so he can play himself into form on RG. To me he is a better clay player than Sinner.

Nadal looked kind of old and slow from what I've seen so far, serve issues, volleys, etc, but that can change anytime, we have seen it before. Let's see how he does in Rome, it will tell us more where his game is at the moment, but he can never be counted out.

Expect Ruud do go deep as usual. He is a safe bet on clay, except to win a whole thing.

Zverev seems out of form currently, so not sure what we can expect from him, maybe some 5 set matches in early rounds.

Biggest unknown for me from top 10 guys is Rune. I have no idea what his form looks like at the moment, so let's see how he does in Rome too.

I like this summary, overall. It's hard not to agree. I don't love reading that Nadal is looking "old and slow," but I can't say he doesn't. I'll still be hoping he does what he's most often done, which is peak for RG. That's speaking as a fan, knowing that my man is running out of runway. I agree with you that Novak has to be a favorite...he's defending it, after all. But, as you say, not a commanding favorite, anymore. He hasn't won a title yet this year. He's fired another guy from his team. He bailed on Madrid for reasons that he says were not physical. For the two of them, as much as anyone, we'll be looking to their form in Rome.

Seemingly everyone on this thread is wondering about Tsitsipas. He has everything on paper to win this RG, especially given what goes on. Can he grow himself into a champion in a few weeks? IMO, no. Unless he plays Ruud in the final.

Sorry for limiting the poll to 3 choices, which was a bit random on my part, but see how it made you choose between Alcaraz and Sinner? And you made a very interesting point about it.

All eyes on Rome, and then the RG draw. I think Novak and Rafa both need a decent draw. There are a lot of interesting spoilers out there these days, on clay.

 

[Moxie]

Who knows with Tsistipas really. He was conned big time with the bathroom break and famous special magic potion while was up 2 sets. He may have won that year if not for that. Fair to say it destroyed his confidence more than mental issues. He also can't play without coaching help which is pitiful.

You are the great chronicler of bathroom breaks. And you have taken up the cause of Novak's "magic potions," because you like to propagate the idea that two of the big 3 are dirty, and Roger is a saint.

Tsitsipas lost that French Open to the better player. He had his chances, (3 sets) but couldn't capitalize. If that has destroyed his confidence since then, that's on him. I don't think that loss ruined his career. I think it's emblematic of what's wrong with his career. Same as Zverev. Two sets up against Thiem, in the USO, and couldn't close the deal. And that wasn't even Djokokovic. There is something lacking in the both of them, if you ask me. Margaret has a lot of advice for the Greek's BH and BH slice. I don't think it's his only problem, but it might go a ways.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

You are the great chronicler of bathroom breaks. And you have taken up the cause of Novak's "magic potions," because you like to propagate the idea that two of the big 3 are dirty, and Roger is a saint.

Tsitsipas lost that French Open to the better player. He had his chances, (3 sets) but couldn't capitalize. If that has destroyed his confidence since then, that's on him. I don't think that loss ruined his career. I think it's emblematic of what's wrong with his career. Same as Zverev. Two sets up against Thiem, in the USO, and couldn't close the deal. And that wasn't even Djokokovic. There is something lacking in the both of them, if you ask me. Margaret has a lot of advice for the Greek's BH and BH slice. I don't think it's his only problem, but it might go a ways.

Do you think with Sef and Zverev they both have this 'air of entitlement' about them?apart from their 'mental issues' ?

 

[Moxie]

Do you think with Sef and Zverev they both have this 'air of entitlement' about them?apart from their 'mental issues' ?

That's exactly what I think. And I believe it's the heart of their mental issues.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I believe the problem with Tsitsipas is that he just doesn't want it bad enough. I don't think that's the same problem with Zverev. He at least had enough heart to come back from that serious injury at the French Open. (Tsitsipas would have probably quit tennis if he suffered that, lol.) I think the problem with Zverev is immaturity. He is, at times, unable to control his emotions and that has gotten him into trouble both on and off the court. Rublev is another player that falls into this category.

 

[Moxie]

I believe the problem with Tsitsipas is that he just doesn't want it bad enough. I don't think that's the same problem with Zverev. He at least had enough heart to come back from that serious injury at the French Open. (Tsitsipas would have probably quit tennis if he suffered that, lol.) I think the problem with Zverev is immaturity. He is, at times, unable to control his emotions and that has gotten him into trouble both on and off the court. Rublev is another player that falls into this category.

I don't agree that Tsitsipas doesn't want it badly enough. As I said above, in response to Margaret's direct question, I think it's a sense of entitlement. Same with Zverev...they bought into the hype on themselves too early, (IMO) and there was a lot. I also don't agree that Zverev's problem is immaturity. He's 27 years old! He's been on the tour for most of 10 years. He has a kid. Like you, I admired the effort it took him to come back after a terrible injury, and I thought/hoped it would give him some humility and perspective, but I don't really see it.

On the other hand, I wouldn't put Rublev in the same category with those 2. By all accounts, he's one of the most well-liked guys in the locker room. He does have anger management issues on the court, which I do just attribute to being a very emotional player. He knows he gets in his own way with it, and I read he's been working with a sports psychologist since late last year. I appreciate that.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Another factor regarding Tsitsipas and Zverev, they both have been past by Alcaraz and Sinner, also younger, who have already won GS titles, both Alcaraz and Sinner have more upside to their games, than those 2, including their mental abilities both players have come back in GS finals when they were down 2 sets to love, which is another indication of their focus and also 'not giving up ability"
Both Tsitsipas and Zverev are 'mental midgets' as far as I am concerned, both were in a winning position to win their 1st GS title, Zverev had 2 CH points and Choked big time? yes this 'air of entitlement' dosent earn you a GS title you have to earn it Period!

 

[El Dude]

I think what makes Tsitsipas and Zverev interesting is that they're in a weird category of player that is better than the standard 2nd tier types (Berdych, Tsonga, even Ferrer) but don't seem to be able to get over the hump and win a Slam (yet).

I've pointed out that Zverev arguably has the best record of any non-Slam winner, and if he wins a single Slam, he'll also be among the best single-Slam winners (right now I'd say that title belongs to either Thomas Muster, Michael Chang, or Daniil Medvedev - or possibly Tony Roche, if we count pre-Open Era records). He's the only player with more than 7+ big titles and no Slams - and he's won 8, including 2 Tour Finals, 1 Olympics, and 5 Masters. The next guy is Marcelo Rios with 6, and then a bunch of guys with fewer:

8: Zverev
6: Rios
4: Okker, A Medvedev, Mecir, Davydenko, and Tsitsipas.
3: Gottfried, Solomon, Clerc, Chesnokov, Corretja, Enqvist, Nalbandian
2: 17 players (incl. Tsonga)
1: 45 players (incl. Berdych, Ferrer)

So Zverev stands alone. Rios had a short career and a shorter peak, with one of the best Slam-less years in 1998 (Sascha's 2021 might be the greatest Slamless year).

Tsitsipas will almost certainly win at least two or three more big titles, so if he doesn't win a Slam, he and Zverev will stand in a unique position in tennis history.

Or to put it another way, there are 25 players with 8 or more big titles, and all but Zverev have won Slams. And Tsitsipas has already won more big titles than guys like Jan Kodes, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Manuel Orantes, Petr Korda, Richard Krajicek, and Andres Gomez (all with 3, and 1-3 Slams each).