Early US-Open Ruminations

[GameSetAndMath]

The US Open is just six weeks away. That means, the official entry list just got announced. Compared to the other GSs, USO seem to be less dominated by big four having as many as three different Non-Big-Four Champions in the last decade. So, it is possible for an outsider to win here (at least in comparison to other GSs). Also, USO is the only slam in which Fedal final has not happened before. With both of them playing well, it could happen too. What do you folks think? What are your preliminary assessments?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the current odds for winning USO. All thirteen players with more than 1% chance is listed below.

1. Federer 3
2. Rafa 9/2
3. Novak / Andy 11/2
5. Stan 14
6. Cilic 20
7. JMDP / Kyrgios 25
9. Raonic / Thiem 28
11. Sasha 30
12. Samurai 33
13. Grigor 40

After that the odds plummet all the way to 100 for Tsonga and 120 for Berdych.

In terms of percentages, it works out to 25% for Fed, 18% to Rafa and 15% each to Novak and Andy.

Obviously a Big-4 champion is considered more likely than not.

But, surprisingly a Non-Fedal champion is considered more likely than a Fedal champion.

 

[Front242]

I'd say good chance Novak won't play but Andy probably will. We'll no doubt find out more in the coming weeks but I guess there's a slim chance both of them won't play.

 

[El Dude]

I feel like we're in an era of unpredictable predictableness. Meaning, chances are we see one of Fedal win it, but I also wouldn't be surprised if neither does and we see Cilic, Stan, or even Sascha win it. Or someone we're not expecting.

Anyhow, I'd like to see how Canada and Cincy go before making predictions. In particular, I want to see how Rafa looks - if he can keep his form up, or if he starts struggling. I also want to see if Roger maintains his high level, as there might be a bit of a letdown after accomplishing his main goal of 2017 (and the rest of his career, perhaps). Even if Roger skips Canada and goes out early in Cincy, I think he regains focus for the USO, but won't be the big favorite he was at Wimbledon.

To me the dark horses are Cilic and Stan, both of whom have something to prove: Stan that he's not slipping, and Cilic that he really can hang with the Big Four like he says he can.

I'd also add in Sascha Zverev, who I think will win one of the next six Slams before his 22nd birthday in April of 2019. Probably not yet, but I wouldn't be surprised. I see him reaching Slam-winning readiness more like in 2018 Wimby/USO.

I don't think Novak will play, and if Andy does I really doubt he wins it, but you can't count him out.

So for me the order, right now, would be:

1. Roger
2. Rafa
3. Cilic
4. Wawrinka
5. Murray
6. Zverev
7. Everyone else

(Assuming Novak doesn't play; if he does, who knows - maybe between Stan and Andy)

 

[Federberg]

The fact that I'm hoping Cilic is on the other side of the draw from Roger tells me I respect him. My list would be...

1, Roger
2, Cilic
3, Rafa
4, Wawrinka
5, Murray & Thiem
6, Zverev & Dimitrov

Of course I'm assuming Novak doesn't play. Otherwise I would put him alongside Murray & Thiem

 

[mrzz]

Yes, "outsiders" have won US Open, but if you look closely, none of them won and disappeared. JMdP, even with his long list of injuries, remained in the conversation since, having a lot of big wins over the Big three to back up his run. Wawrinka won US Open as a two time major winner, so he was already part of the conversation then. And Cilic, well, less then the others but he did win a masters after that and is just fresh out of a major final. My point is, yes I agree with the assessment, but this "outsider" will be surely one guy with credentials to be part of the (future) lead group -- which makes Zverev, as El Dude called attention, a perfect candidate.

BTW, Murray won in NY too, and if I had to chose I would group him rather with del Potro, Wawrinka and Cilic than with the big three (I know he does not belong in either group, but he is, at least major winning wise, much closer to this one).

 

[britbox]

OK, assuming Djokovic doesn't play (and if he did, he would figure, albeit at the lower end of the spectrum given his current profile)...

1, Roger
2, Rafa
3, Murray
4, Wawrinka
5, Zverev
6. Cilic

I like Thiem but don't think he's at that stage where he could beat more than one of the big boys in a five set match... he might get one, but consecutives... I'm not fancying him at all for the job. Dimitrov neither... I'd consider him a big boy spoiler (i.e. maybe take out one name) but not a genuine contender for the championships.

I'm not as hot on Cilic as everyone else. I don't think he wins this USO. He's dangerous for sure... I'm not somebody who regarded him as a hero at Wimbledon for wimpering about his blister.

Wawrinka is an animal at the business end of proceedings so wouldn't rule him out... but he aint going via Roger. If he gets to the last 4 and Roger isn't in his path, he's genuine.

Zverev is going to get there at some point... I think most of us think it's just a matter of time. Don't think it will be this year... Like El Dude I reckon he'll break through the glass ceiling sooner rather than later.. just not quite now.

Murray isn't going through Rafa or Roger. If he wins this, it will because they weren't in his path.

 

[mrzz]

I won´t try to cut out a list right now, only state the obvious that Federer and Nadal would top it. But, speaking of dark horses, my pick is Kachanov. I would guess he is next big thing, and he might start showing it now.

 

[britbox]

I won´t try to cut out a list right now, only state the obvious that Federer and Nadal would top it. But, speaking of dark horses, my pick is Kachanov. I would guess he is next big thing, and he might start showing it now.

Agreed. I don't know if he's the next big thing but I've been talking him up for a while - definitely a Top 5-10 guy at worst in the long run. He isn't winning the USO this year though.

 

[Ricardo]

if Roger wins it, but Rafa ends the year no1....would that be the first time in history this happens?

 

[britbox]

if Roger wins it, but Rafa ends the year no1....would that be the first time in history this happens?

I can't think of any other year when one guy has won three majors and not ended the year at #1. Must be a first, surely.

 

[isabelle]

I'ld like a young gun as a winner, why not Dom or Sasha ??

 

[Front242]

I can't think of any other year when one guy has won three majors and not ended the year at #1. Must be a first, surely.

He'd be welcome to it lol. A big fat Sesame Street number 1 on his back while Roger has 3 big slam trophies at home to polish.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Zverev beats Rafa in one semi, Roger beats Stan in the other...The final is a 4 setter won by ...come on man, I can't do everything, YOU figure it out.

 

[mrzz]

if Roger wins it, but Rafa ends the year no1....would that be the first time in history this happens?

If that happens -- forgetting the other tournaments, Federer would have at least 500 points more than Nadal (that is, current points + USOPEN), that assuming the final is against Nadal himself. In this case, yes, if Federer take the rest of the season very lightly Nadal could overtake him, but in most realistic scenarios if he wins USO he gets YE1, unless Nadal goes on a tear on the season ending including YEC, which would kind of give some value to this (very unlikely) strange YE#1.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

if Roger wins it, but Rafa ends the year no1....would that be the first time in history this happens?

If Roger wins USO, there is no way he will leave the YE#1 to Rafa. Roger will schedule tournaments as needed to get there (as he does not have to save himself for slams this year any more).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

1. I don't think JMDP can win this anymore, assuming he is confined to slicing almost all of his backhands or running around them to
convert to forehand shots. I think this is still the case with him.

2. The general consensus with Sasha seems to be that while he has strokes, he has not become a man yet (his leg strength is
considered weak). As such, I believe he is not ready to win USO this year. But, I guess he will go deeper than he did at Wimbledon.

 

[Federberg]

Are we all dismissing Kei?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

My current categorization is as follows:

Contenders: (Those with legitimate shots at title)

1. Roger
2. Rafa
3. Andy (If hip issues were resolved in time).

Pretenders: (Those whom you cannot ignore, but feel they are not serious contenders)
1. Stan
2. Cilic
3. Novak (if he even participates)

Darkhorses: (outside chance for the title)

1. Kyrgios
2. Sasha

Spoilers: (can take out a player from one of the above categories, but highly unlikely to win the title)

1. Berdych
2. Grigor
3. Kei
4. Tsonga
5. Fog

 

[El Dude]

If Roger wins USO, there is no way he will leave the YE#1 to Rafa. Roger will schedule tournaments as needed to get there (as he does not have to save himself for slams this year any more).

Yes, this. Furthermore, for Rafa to be YE1 in this scenario, he'd have to significantly outplay Roger - probably winning at least two of the remaining four Masters, one or two ATP 500s, and maybe the WTF as well. The problem for Rafa, though, is two-fold: One, he has a hard time staying healthy and at the top of his game this time of year, and two, Roger could coast and still pick up a ton of points. So it would have to be a combination of both: Rafa playing incredibly well AND Roger struggling a bit.

The USO doesn't decide YE1, but it gives a significant edge to whoever wins it (of those two).

Anyhow, for some reason I'm thinking someone other than Fedal wins the USO.