Early French Open Ruminations

[GameSetAndMath]

I know Rolland Garros is far away. However, this is probably going to be one of the most important RG ever due to the following reasons.

1. Novak has a real chance of winning RG finishing Djoker Slam something never done by R & R.

2. This is going to be the real test for Rafa on his comeback. If he loses this, we can write him off.

3. This would be the first major for Roger after the surgery. Even though he may (ok will) not win RG, it is important to see how his knees will hold up to see what future holds for him.

4. This would be the first major for Dad Andy. We would have to wait and see whether Andy stops making faces as his baby will be doing it now.

5. Last but not the least, it will be interesting to see how Stan approaches defending his RG title.

Here are the early odds as per the bookies

Novak ----- 1 ( about 50% chance of winning)
Rafa ---- 7/2 (22% chance)
Stan ---- 8 (11% chance)
Andy --- 12 (8% chance)
Roger --- 25 (4% chance)

That leaves about 5% chance to the field; interestingly that is larger thatn Fed's chances.

 

[Fiero425]

RE: Very Early French Open Ruminations

Hon; let's get through the first 2 Masters @ IW and Miami before musing too much about the FO! :ras: Hard to blame you though; I was so looking forward to Beijing, Shanghai, and Paris right after the USO last year so I could see that big 6 of 9 Masters wins; 8 of 8 finals appear in the record books! :eyepop :angel: :dodgy:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Very Early French Open Ruminations

Hon; let's get through the first 2 Masters @ IW and Miami before musing too much about the FO! :ras: Hard to blame you though; I was so looking forward to Beijing, Shanghai, and Paris right after the USO last year so I could see that big 6 of 9 Masters wins; 8 of 8 finals appear in the record books! :eyepop :angel: :dodgy:

Don't you think this will be the most intriguing RG, even surpassing that of last year.

 

[Fiero425]

RE: Very Early French Open Ruminations

Hon; let's get through the first 2 Masters @ IW and Miami before musing too much about the FO! :ras: Hard to blame you though; I was so looking forward to Beijing, Shanghai, and Paris right after the USO last year so I could see that big 6 of 9 Masters wins; 8 of 8 finals appear in the record books! :eyepop :angel: :dodgy:

Don't you think this will be the most intriguing RG, even surpassing that of last year.

I think this past FO had it all; Rafa going against his nemesis in the QUARTERS instead of semi or final, having a delay in his semi-final with Andy due to rain/darkness/length of Stan's match, and all kinds of expectations! Even when he won the 1st set final, Nole didn't look settled and I knew this was going to be a war! Even though Djokovic has won the majority of his meetings with the Swiss, they're usually drawn out long affair and I wasn't shocked in the least when the match was lost! 2012 Obviously was full of it too; Nole up and serving for it! He has just about as much trouble as the rest of the tour; no lead is safe! He was up 2 breaks at the USO and had to use both to survive that 4th set run of Roger's! Happens entirely too much! The only thing I'm not happy with Nole's game is "closing it out" with ease! :nono

 

[nehmeth]

RE: Very Early French Open Ruminations

Granted we have two Masters coming up on hard courts, and unless there is a significant shift of some kind Novak is the favorite to win them.

In Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome - Nadal will have to reassert himself at one of the tournaments here if he's going to be in a place to contend for the French. I'm still not sure if Novak is skipping Madrid again or not, but in Monte Carlo and Rome, he's had Rafa's number. Madrid plays faster and Andy will be there to defend his title.

Rafa's got his work cut out for him. Hopefully he can find his form in these early clay tourneys and be competitive in the Masters and RG.

 

[Great Hands]

RE: Very Early French Open Ruminations

You are right GSM, this is goig to be a very interesting RG this year, for all the reason you mentioned.

The fact that Nole will be going for the Nole slam as well gives the tournament some extra pressure that he really doesn't need - trying to finally complete the Career Grand Slam is enough! Novak will be going for:

Yes, now at RG he'll be going for:

Completing the Career Grand Slam
Completing the Nole Slam
Stage Two of the Calendar Year Grand Slam
Stage Two of the Calendar Year Golden Slam

No pressure, Novak...

 

[Great Hands]

RE: Very Early French Open Ruminations

You are right GSM, this is going to be a very interesting RG this year, for all the reasons you mentioned.

The fact that Novak will be going for the Nole slam as well gives the tournament some extra pressure that he really doesn't need - trying to finally complete the Career Grand Slam is enough! Now at RG he'll be going for:

Completing the Career Grand Slam
Completing the Nole Slam
Stage Two of the Calendar Year Grand Slam
Stage Two of the Calendar Year Golden Slam

No pressure, Novak...

 

[Great Hands]

RE: Very Early French Open Ruminations

Interesting odds - do people agree that Rafa has a better chance of winning than Stan? I'd put Stan above Rafa at this point.

 

[Fiero425]

RE: Very Early French Open Ruminations

You are right GSM, this is going to be a very interesting RG this year, for all the reasons you mentioned.

The fact that Novak will be going for the Nole slam as well gives the tournament some extra pressure that he really doesn't need - trying to finally complete the Career Grand Slam is enough! Now at RG he'll be going for:

Completing the Career Grand Slam
Completing the Nole Slam
Stage Two of the Calendar Year Grand Slam
Stage Two of the Calendar Year Golden Slam

No pressure, Novak...

That'll be up to the media IMO! How will they handle the coverage? Will they go insane coming up with new angles to muse about the same facts? How many past champions will put in their 2 cents and subsequently embarrass themselves; McEnroe and Wilander have eaten all their words! All the instances they didn't think could be achieved by Nole has been surpassed and they're still groveling! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Very Early French Open Ruminations

Now that the hard court season is over, I am giving this thread a bump (and also changing the title of the thread from "very early French open ruminations" to "early French open ruminations".

Anyway, here are the current odds for winning RG (best odds across multiple betting houses)

Novak Djokovic 4/5
Rafael Nadal 9/2
Stan Wawrinka 8
Andy Murray 12
Roger Federer 25

 

[Riotbeard]

I mean, what's there to say! It's Novak's to lose. On the one hand it would have been nice if he had done the double in more dominant fashion, but who is there really to stop him outside of the Wawrinka lottery.

 

[nehmeth]

Nadal showed pretty good form at IW. He probably has been practicing on the dirt since his Miami loss.
Wawrinka has shown little or no form.
Murray is in the same boat for different reasons.
Looking forward to seeing Roger play on clay.
I want to see what Thiem will do on the red stuff this Spring.

Novak has handled to pressure and expectations pretty well so far. His only loss this year is by retirement due to an eye infection. Hopefully he will stay relaxed and win RG in 2016.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Is Nole planning to skip Madrid this year again?

 

[El Dude]

Good post, GameSetandMath--it could have been written right now.

Anyhow, I'm excited about Roland Garros for all the reasons you stated, although now also because I want to see how the young guys do--particularly Thiem and Kyrgios, but also Zverev and Fritz.

Depending upon how rusty he is, Roger could easily go out in the first week if he gets a strong clay court player. On the other hand, hopefully he'll work out the kinks in Madrid/Rome/MC.

It is really hard imagining how Novak could lose this, but you never know. I'd like to see a re-match with Thiem, and a match vs. Kyrgios. And, despite Rafa being the arch-villain the Saga of Roger, I'd like to see him do well and play his heart out, even if I don't think he can beat Novak. But you never know, he might have one more great Slam match (although maybe that was the 2014 SF vs. Novak).

 

[herios]

Now that the hard court season is over, I am giving this thread a bump (and also changing the title of the thread from "very early French open ruminations" to "early French open ruminations".

Anyway, here are the current odds for winning RG (best odds across multiple betting houses)

Novak Djokovic 4/5
Rafael Nadal 9/2
Stan Wawrinka 8
Andy Murray 12
Roger Federer 25

So since the last time you posted them, the odds got better for Nole and weaker for Rafa and stayed the same to Andy, Roger and Stan.
The reason for the change is obvious, Rafa did not play well in South America on clay.

There will be surely some surprises on clay this upcoming season. I can feel it.

 

[Mile]

Is Nole planning to skip Madrid this year again?

I saw Madrid is on the schedule on Novak website.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Now that the hard court season is over, I am giving this thread a bump (and also changing the title of the thread from "very early French open ruminations" to "early French open ruminations".

Anyway, here are the current odds for winning RG (best odds across multiple betting houses)

Novak Djokovic 4/5
Rafael Nadal 9/2
Stan Wawrinka 8
Andy Murray 12
Roger Federer 25

So the odds are greater for Rafa to win than Stan.. I dont see it.. Too many things have to go well(really a perfect storm) for Rafa in current form to capture the title.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Crossing my fingers for Novak on this one! Do you think Novak accidentally on purpose tanks a tournament before the French to take the pressure off?

 

[Fiero425]

Crossing my fingers for Novak on this one! Do you think Novak accidentally on purpose tanks a tournament before the French to take the pressure off?

I feel anytime he doesn't win, he's letting it go to save himself; last season Masters' losses case in point against Federer and Murray at Canadian and Cincy! :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Front242]

Crossing my fingers for Novak on this one! Do you think Novak accidentally on purpose tanks a tournament before the French to take the pressure off?

I feel anytime he doesn't win, he's letting it go to save himself; last season Masters' losses case in point against Federer and Murray at Canadian and Cincy! :angel: :dodgy:

LOL, dream on. Cinci is one he's been trying to win for years as it's the only one he hasn't won. Don't kid yourself. Roger is just better on the fastest hard courts and that's currently one of the fastest on tour.