Early US Open Ruminations

[GameSetAndMath]

With just five weeks to go before USO starts, let me start hyping it up.
I think this year it is going to be even more interesting and exciting than usual
due to the following reasons.

1. With the GS title gap reducing between Fed and Rafa, every slam from
now will be exciting.

2. I am expecting that Murray will get his act together and raise his game
to become a contender at USO. However, he will probably be still ranked
outside top 8. This will mess up the draw and make things more exciting.
Assuming the seeds hold up this would Andy has to face either
Ferrer, Berdych, Milos or Grigor in the R16. Andy vs. Grigor or Andy
vs. Milos might be tough. Assuming he wins that, there is always
the possibility of Andy vs. another member of big four QF waiting
on the horizon

3. According to US-Open website, JMDP intends to be back in action
for USO. I don't know exactly when he is going to come back; hope
he can start from Canada Masters and get some match practice.
Assuming, JMDP is good to go, this will make USO even more
interesting.

I intend this thread to talk generally about USO and not so much about
predicting the winner or conducting a poll as to who will win. Of course, you
can do that too if you wish. However, I hope that it does not deteriorate to
another Fedal war thread or goat thread. Needless to say, this thread will die
on August 24th.

 

[Kieran]

Good idea! Let's get started.

1. The slam count will sort itself out eventually.

2. I'm curious why you think Murray will "raise his game to become a contender at USO". He's been thoroughly inconsistent all year and was out of sorts at Wimbledon. He still - far as I know - hasn't clarified his coaching team, and appears to be like driftwood on the rankings chart.

3. I'd love to see JMDP back, and also some of the youngsters who made such a racket at Wimbledon do the same at Flushing Meadows, particularly Kyrgios, although I'm not sure how these players will respond when they're targeted, as opposed to targeting...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Also, this year is the last time the semifinals will be played on Saturday and the
finals on Monday. Starting from 2015 USO has agreed to forego "super Saturday"
and stage men's semifinals on Friday and finals on Sunday as the ATP and
several players opposed the current situation. Also, starting from 2015 the first
round will be completed in just two days unlike the current plan of 3 days.

Recall that USO normally used to schedule men's semifinals on super Saturday
and then immediately follow up with the finals on sunday without giving players
some rest. For five years in a row (2008-2012), nature prevented the finals
from being played on sunday (due to heavy rains caused by hurricane).
Then USO decided to officially schedule the final on Monday for the years
2013 and 2014 which did not go well with many players and ATP.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

All top 104 players have entered, with the exception of Nicolas Almagro who is
nursing a foot injury.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Good idea! Let's get started.

2. I'm curious why you think Murray will "raise his game to become a contender at USO". He's been thoroughly inconsistent all year and was out of sorts at Wimbledon. He still - far as I know - hasn't clarified his coaching team, and appears to be like driftwood on the rankings chart.

It is more due to the theory that "nothing stays the same forever". Also, he is one of
a handful of people who have won here before. USO has been won by all members of big
four and in addition is also won by JMDP and Hewitt among the other active players.
Also, see my other thread on US open betting odds; the betting houses think that Murray
has better chances than Fed (or else they are tempting folks to bet on Fed by giving a
large odds). Also, there may be some legitimate explanation for AM's listless loss against
Grigor in Wimby as alluded by the "f****** five minutes before the match" remark,
even though we may never come to know what it is.

Andy has reached at least QF in all slams of this year despite generally sucking.
In contrast Fed did not do so in RG and Nadal did not do so in Wimby. Also,
Andy likes hard courts. So, it can reasonably be expected that he will perform
at least to the level he is expected to as per his ranking, which will be R16 for USO
as his ranking is 10.

Most important point is that, contender or not, any time you have a player
of the caliber of Andy ranked that low, it will surely make the draw and the
tournament interesting.


.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Dog is also out due to impending knee surgery. Dog plans to miss entire US Series and
the US Open and hopes to come back for the Asian Swing.

No. 105 Dzumhur, Damir of Bosnia replaces Almagro and No, 106 Montanes, Albert
of Spain replaces Dog.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are some notables who are not ranked high enough to get into the main draw:
Nicolas Davydenko, Marcos Baghdatis, Bernard Tomic and Janko Tipsaraevic (whatever
happened to this guy?).

Unfortunately, winning Bogota, comes little too late for Tomic as the entry to
USO got decided as per the rankings on July 14th (when he is ranked 124) and
he is now poised to break into top 100 again tomorrow.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As per the news

"America's No. 1 John Isner begins his non-stop tour through the North American hard courts as the top seed at the ATP 250 event in Atlanta. Isner, ranked No. 12, has entered every U.S. Open Series event leading up to the U.S. Open and he has 1,250 points — nearly half of his total — to defend over the next eight weeks. After Atlanta he'll head to the Citi Open, Rogers Cup, Cincinnati, Winston-Salem, the U.S. Open and then Davis Cup duty in Chicago."

Anyone care to predict whether he will lose in the 1st or 2nd round at USO?

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

Here are some notables who are not ranked high enough to get into the main draw:
Nicolas Davydenko, Marcos Baghdatis, Bernard Tomic and Janko Tipsaraevic (whatever
happened to this guy?).

Unfortunately, winning Bogota, comes little too late for Tomic as the entry to
USO got decided as per the rankings on July 14th (when he is ranked 124) and
he is now poised to break into top 100 again tomorrow.

Tanko Quitsarevic had an operation on his heel or something a few months back.

 

[indepthstats]

It will be very interesting to see what Nadal shows up now that we're back on hardcourts for most of the rest of the year.

He continued his dominance on clay again this year for the most part. But has looked horrid on grass in the few matches he's played the last 3 years.

 

[Kieran]

It will be very interesting to see what Nadal shows up now that we're back on hardcourts for most of the rest of the year.

He continued his dominance on clay again this year for the most part. But has looked horrid on grass in the few matches he's played the last 3 years.

Welcome to the forum, indepthstats!

I thought Rafa looked okay on grass this year, he just was unfortunate to meet a young beast who played without fear, and hit huge.

It is more due to the theory that "nothing stays the same forever". Also, he is one of
a handful of people who have won here before. USO has been won by all members of big
four and in addition is also won by JMDP and Hewitt among the other active players.
Also, see my other thread on US open betting odds; the betting houses think that Murray
has better chances than Fed (or else they are tempting folks to bet on Fed by giving a
large odds). Also, there may be some legitimate explanation for AM's listless loss against
Grigor in Wimby as alluded by the "f****** five minutes before the match" remark,
even though we may never come to know what it is.

Andy has reached at least QF in all slams of this year despite generally sucking.
In contrast Fed did not do so in RG and Nadal did not do so in Wimby. Also,
Andy likes hard courts. So, it can reasonably be expected that he will perform
at least to the level he is expected to as per his ranking, which will be R16 for USO
as his ranking is 10.

Most important point is that, contender or not, any time you have a player
of the caliber of Andy ranked that low, it will surely make the draw and the
tournament interesting.


.

Murray's a moody bloke, it's hard to tell how he'll react to being so low in the draw. It's true about his GS performances, and in Paris he did particularly well, but I think that unless he clarifies his coaching team soon and takes things in hand, he'll struggle. Or - maybe his coaching team is still intact and the fragrant Amelie will stay in the seat where Lendl did so well - in which case, I'm sure he'll struggle.

I'd be happy for Andy to prove me wrong, but he's in a full-blown crisis now, and I don't think he has the mental wherewithal of the members of the Big 3 to deal with it...

 

[indepthstats]

It will be very interesting to see what Nadal shows up now that we're back on hardcourts for most of the rest of the year.

He continued his dominance on clay again this year for the most part. But has looked horrid on grass in the few matches he's played the last 3 years.

Welcome to the forum, indepthstats!

I thought Rafa looked okay on grass this year, he just was unfortunate to meet a young beast who played without fear, and hit huge.

He looked a little better I guess, but he lost in the first round at Halle and dropped the first set in every match he played at Wimbledon. That's certainly not what I would call typical Nadal tennis.

Thanks for the welcome by the way!

 

[DarthFed]

Welcome indepthstats! I think it is typical of Nadal the last few years, really typical of him his whole career (struggling in the 1st week). I expect he will do better on hardcourts though it will be tough to match last year. The big one of course is the USO and he'll be ready to go there.

I say Roger has at least one decent run left in him at USO (at least the final). As long as he avoids Berd in the quarters he has a good chance this year I say. He knows the time is now to show he can still play on the big stage...

 

[Kieran]

I think urgency will be an issue for Roger, alright, though I doubt he has much to fear from Berdy. It's less likely that he'll get that far, than Roger. But Roger will have gained a shot in the arm from his semi in Oz and final in Wimbo: he knows he can go deep, and I agree, he'll see this as most likely a last shot at the US Open...

 

[the AntiPusher]

It will be very interesting to see what Nadal shows up now that we're back on hardcourts for most of the rest of the year.

He continued his dominance on clay again this year for the most part. But has looked horrid on grass in the few matches he's played the last 3 years.

Hola ndepthstats and welcome.. This is how it goes with Rafa.. you just never know unlike Fed.. I think that if that something that I appreciate about Roger's career more than Rafa's career is the consistency at the grandslams,, Roger always showed up strong , made it to the semi or at least the quarters during his prime..

To respond properly to your post.. I would expect Rafa and Djoker to make it to the finals again regardless of the draws.. Djoker will be there.. Rafa should.. I hope that all conditions with those two remain positive and true

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think urgency will be an issue for Roger, alright, though I doubt he has much to fear from Berdy. It's less likely that he'll get that far, than Roger. But Roger will have gained a shot in the arm from his semi in Oz and final in Wimbo: he knows he can go deep, and I agree, he'll see this as most likely a last shot at the US Open...

In RG, Fed was drawn to play Bird in QFs. The bolded statement in your post was the
predominant conventional wisdom (although the opinion was somewhat divided on
whether Bird would be a problem for Fed on clay). However, Bird made it to the QF
while Fed did not make it there.

I think most would agree that Bird can be a problem for Fed in hardcourts and probably
will live up to his ranking and reach QF. I think Ferrer or Milos would be a nice QF opponent to
Fed in USO.

 

[nehmeth]

I'm thinking Novak makes a big push to win his 2nd U.S. Open. His wrist will be fully healed and he has the Slam-final monkey off his back.

Interested to see how Ralf regroups during the summer hard court season. He was an absolute beast last year. Wondering if he can approach that level again. Also wondering about his serve.

I think Murray drops another turd here and exits in the quarters or semis.

Roger will probably also go down in the quarters or semis.

Question marks - Stan, Dimi, Berd, and Snout (Raonic). As always a lot will depend on the draw, but that's my preliminary top eight. Would like to see either a Nadal/Djoker or Djoker/Dimitrov final.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

1. I think Djokovic is a strong favourite for this one. Rafa's form has been somewhat hard to gauge this year, he could win it. Federer had a bit of a blip when his twins were born but has otherwise had a strong and consistent year. Sadly though I don't think his maximum level against top opponents is good enough to win a major these days. He'll need someone to do him a favour and take probably both the top two out for him if he's to win the whole thing.

2. I also think Murray will step it up here and be strong enough to reach the semis comfortably - if he was seeded in the top four. His seeding could be a problem but I'll keep my fingers crossed that he gets a nice draw and avoids a Dimitrov R4 and a Djokovic QF or something horrible like that. He could bump his ranking back up to scrape a top 8 seeding though, he's not defending much at Toronto/Cincy whereas Raonic is defending final points in Canada and Del Potro, even if he plays, was defending champion in Washington, semis in Cincinnati, so will be ranked behind Andy too.

3. Last I heard Del Potro was planning to come back for Kuala Lumpur which is after the US Open. I'd love to see him in New York but hopefully he doesn't rush back at long term expense.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

- I think it is next to impossible to say anything about Rafa until we see him in Toronto and Cincy.

- Nole should be full of confidence and I am picking him to win his first Cincy this year . He's got to be right up there as the top candidate for the Open as well.

-Roger is a confidence guy as well. As he said, he is looking at Wimby as a stepping stone. I am hoping to see him in the finals of either Toronto or Cincy, Cincy being a bit more likely since his shots penetrate better there. A Nole -Roger semi at the Open would be another epic, mark my words, but I have this feeling we might see the first ever Rafa-Roger match at the Open.

-Murray can build a rhythm in Toronto and Cincy towards the Open and make a lot of noise there I think.

-I hope to see at least one semi and one final made in Toronto, Cincy and the Open by the young guys like Grigor, Milos, Kyrgios, etc...

 

[Moxie]

1. I think Djokovic is a strong favourite for this one. Rafa's form has been somewhat hard to gauge this year, he could win it. Federer had a bit of a blip when his twins were born but has otherwise had a strong and consistent year. Sadly though I don't think his maximum level against top opponents is good enough to win a major these days. He'll need someone to do him a favour and take probably both the top two out for him if he's to win the whole thing.

2. I also think Murray will step it up here and be strong enough to reach the semis comfortably - if he was seeded in the top four. His seeding could be a problem but I'll keep my fingers crossed that he gets a nice draw and avoids a Dimitrov R4 and a Djokovic QF or something horrible like that. He could bump his ranking back up to scrape a top 8 seeding though, he's not defending much at Toronto/Cincy whereas Raonic is defending final points in Canada and Del Potro, even if he plays, was defending champion in Washington, semis in Cincinnati, so will be ranked behind Andy too.

3. Last I heard Del Potro was planning to come back for Kuala Lumpur which is after the US Open. I'd love to see him in New York but hopefully he doesn't rush back at long term expense.

There's a lot I agree with in your post, TennisFanatic:

1. Hard to disagree strongly about Djokovic and Nadal, though Rafa did win the penultimate Major, and was 1 and 1 in the previously finals to Paris. We'll see how he looks in Canada and Cincy. As to Roger, he got the kind of help you're talking about at Wimbledon, which got him to the final, but not the title. Could happen again, and he could take it all the way, but I think the chances go down, being HCs, where more players have an opportunity of taking him out than on grass.

2. I also hope that Murray will be back to form by USO, and, agreed that the ranking could hurt him, if the draw is unkind.

3. I just looked around in Argentine and otherwise Spanish-language press. There is nothing to indicate the JMDP is coming back by the USO. Perhaps an update will surface soon, though I did read in Canchallena (Argentine sports mag) as recently as 4 July that he was not yet hitting his BH with both hands.

It'll be interesting to see the Big 4 and the young comers in the lead-up, as everyone jockeys for position.