Big Four Outlooks - Optimistic, Pessimistic, Realistic

[El Dude]

A certain poster's latest bout of fangirlism about a certain player got me thinking: what are the possible outlooks for the Big Four going forward? For each I'll give an optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic variation. Optimistic is fanboyism/girlism, but distantly possible--just very unlikely. Pessimistic is the "hater" variant, but again a possibility. Realistic is the moderate view--it is what is (or I see to be) most likely to happen.

For the fun of it I also offered percentages, which are entirely subjective but perhaps add fodder for conversation.

ROGER FEDERER
Optimistic (>10%): His layoff gives him a burst of energy and youthfulness, a late career Renaissance. Maybe he doesn't get back to #1, but returns to the top 5 and with Rafa and Novak in decline and Andy being Andy, he wins another Slam--maybe even two--and gets to that 100 title mark. He plays until after his 40th birthday.
Pessimistic (30%): He struggles to come back in 2017, barely managing even the top 10. He gives it one more shot in 2018, but when it is clear he can't hang in the top 10 anymore he retires at Basel.
Realistic (60%): There are some bumps in the road, but Roger returns to the top 10, if slightly diminished from 2014-15. But he wins a few more titles, but no more Slams. He plays for a few more years.

RAFAEL NADAL
Optimistic (15%): After some soul-searching on a boat off the coast of Mallorca, Rafa has a eureka moment and figures out what is wrong and comes back surging. He dominates clay season, winning 2-3 Masters and RG, and then challenges for the US Open and the #1 ranking. He plays strong for another year or two, somehow evading injury long enough to get those 18 Slams to pass Roger. Carol is vindicated.
Pessimistic (25%): Not only does he not improve, but set-back after set-back finally gets to him. He doesn't do much during clay season, goes out early in Wimbledon and the US Open, and finally decides to call it quits, 2017 being his last year.
Realistic (60%): He soldiers on for another couple years, building on the resurgent form we saw earlier this year, having bursts here and there where he looks like the Rafa of old, although not for a sustained period. He comes close to winning Roland Garros in 2017 and may even win it, but at least wins a clay Master and another few titles.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC
Optimistic (20%): After some time off with the family, he comes back strong next year and wins AO, regaining confidence and returning to his his 2015-early 2016 form, winning at least two Slams in 2017, a couple more in 2018 to tie Federer, and then one or two more in 2019 or later to solidify his crown as the GOAT with most year-end #1s, Slams, Masters, and WTFs of all time.
Pessimistic (10%): This is the beginning of the end, and not only that it is coming quicker than we thought. He loses the #1 to Andy and struggles next year, winning one Slam at most, and perhaps just that one more for the rest of his career. He plays on a few more years, but greatly diminished.
Realistic (70%): He finds a form somewhat similar in level to 2012-14 for another year or two, when he remains the overall best player in the game, but now first among equals. He wins a few more Slams, passes Pete and Rafa but can't quite get to Roger. He loses the #1 ranking sometime in 2017 but gains it back, but loses it again--swapping it with Andy, and then other players in 2018 and beyond before losing it entirely in 2019 or so.

ANDY MURRAY
Optimistic (20%): With Novak now mortal, Andy has a late career peak, stealing the #1 from him. He wins a few more Slams, maybe even a year-end #1 in 2017, and is the overall best player in the sport for a couple years. He ends with 6-7 Slams.
Pessimistic (20%): After failing to get the #1, head-case Andy returns in 2017 and he never gets the #1, and doesn't even win another Slam. Just as Rafa started his decline in 2014, Novak (perhaps) in 2016, Andy is right behind in 2017.
Realistic (60%): He has a nice late career plateau, winning another Slam or two, finishing in the 4-5 range and solidifying his historical place as the "best of the rest" or "worst of the best," just as he was in his career. He does finally get the #1, although not for an extended period of time--instead passing it back and forth with Novak, and then other players, for a couple years.

 

[Busted]

Sooooo...basically you're saying -

Roger - done...except for the retirement tour

Nadal - done...except for the retirement tour

Nole - done...except for the retirement tour

Murray - done...except for the retirement tour

...and I can't disagree with anything you said...except maybe Nole passing Nadal and Sampras. Given the current funk he seems to be in...I can see him tying them but not passing them. If he had any sense he'd bow out of Paris and rest for the Tour Finals. Maybe his hyperbaric chamber is broke or something...

 

[Busted]

Sooooo...basically you're saying -

Roger - done...except for the retirement tour

Nadal - done...except for the retirement tour

Nole - done...except for the retirement tour

Murray - done...except for the retirement tour

...and I can't disagree with anything you said...except maybe Nole passing Nadal and Sampras. Given the current funk he seems to be in...I can see him tying them but not passing them. If he had any sense he'd bow out of Paris and rest for the Tour Finals. Maybe his hyperbaric chamber is broke or something...

Actually...I take that back...I will quibble with Roger struggling in 2017. Given the current state of the men's game with everybody seemingly in a holding pattern (except for a few of the younger players) and Nole struggling - Roger goes back in to the Top 4 simply because after Australia he's only got about 1000 points to defend. If you look at the rest of the top 10 - there's a few guys who've moved up only because Roger was out. If he'd played his regular schedule with his normal semis\finals results - those other guys wouldn't have moved up. Stan would have probably ended up in Djokovic's half of the draw at the US Open and that may have yielded a different results. There are so many "Ifs" because Roger being out changed every draw at every tourney he'd have played. And given that Murray hasn't been Roger since the 2013 Australian Open - who knows if he'd have had the same results this year if he'd had to play Roger in some semis or finals.

But, for 2017 - I can't see guys like Headcase Monfils having another good year. He's already 30 and this is his best year by far. Berdych's regressing not progressing. Nishikori simply has to work too hard every match and is injured too much. Raonic? There's always his serve - but that's about it. Stan? Bless his heart - he's a headcase 99% of the time but when he shows up he usually closes the deal. Nadal? Still a shell of his former self and as he approaches 31 and that's not going to change. Murray and Nole will both be 30 this year - and they also have to work too hard to win matches and it's already catching up with Nole, so Murray won't be too far behind. Cilic and Tsonga are too inconsistent - and Tsonga ain't getting any younger either. Goffin just hasn't got enough game. Kyrgios needs to go back to Australia if he's not going to bother trying. Thiem, Pouille, Zverev could all make a move and frankly one of them needs to to make 2017 interesting. And then there's Dimitrov trying to get back into the mix. I don't see that happening, but at least his game looks better than it has the last 2 years. The guy I'm rooting for though is DelPo. Hopefully he'll be able to hit his 2 handed backhand more next year and make things interesting for the top guys again. He's proven he can be a threat even without his two-hander, but he needs that shot to take his game to the next level.

So I can Roger getting back into the Top 4 unless he just flat out has lost it after a 5 month layooff. I expect the early part of the season to be scratchy and he's already said he's not sure how it's going to go himself, but hopefully he'll have his game together by Wimbledon.

 

[Front242]

Wonder what Stan thinks of all these big 4 predictions and whether he'll spoil the party one more time.

 

[masterclass]

A certain poster's latest bout of fangirlism about a certain player got me thinking: what are the possible outlooks for the Big Four going forward? For each I'll give an optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic variation. Optimistic is fanboyism/girlism, but distantly possible--just very unlikely. Pessimistic is the "hater" variant, but again a possibility. Realistic is the moderate view--it is what is (or I see to be) most likely to happen.

For the fun of it I also offered percentages, which are entirely subjective but perhaps add fodder for conversation.

ROGER FEDERER
Optimistic (>10%): His layoff gives him a burst of energy and youthfulness, a late career Renaissance. Maybe he doesn't get back to #1, but returns to the top 5 and with Rafa and Novak in decline and Andy being Andy, he wins another Slam--maybe even two--and gets to that 100 title mark. He plays until after his 40th birthday.
Pessimistic (30%): He struggles to come back in 2017, barely managing even the top 10. He gives it one more shot in 2018, but when it is clear he can't hang in the top 10 anymore he retires at Basel.
Realistic (60%): There are some bumps in the road, but Roger returns to the top 10, if slightly diminished from 2014-15. But he wins a few more titles, but no more Slams. He plays for a few more years.

RAFAEL NADAL
Optimistic (15%): After some soul-searching on a boat off the coast of Mallorca, Rafa has a eureka moment and figures out what is wrong and comes back surging. He dominates clay season, winning 2-3 Masters and RG, and then challenges for the US Open and the #1 ranking. He plays strong for another year or two, somehow evading injury long enough to get those 18 Slams to pass Roger. Carol is vindicated.
Pessimistic (25%): Not only does he not improve, but set-back after set-back finally gets to him. He doesn't do much during clay season, goes out early in Wimbledon and the US Open, and finally decides to call it quits, 2017 being his last year.
Realistic (60%): He soldiers on for another couple years, building on the resurgent form we saw earlier this year, having bursts here and there where he looks like the Rafa of old, although not for a sustained period. He comes close to winning Roland Garros in 2017 and may even win it, but at least wins a clay Master and another few titles.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC
Optimistic (20%): After some time off with the family, he comes back strong next year and wins AO, regaining confidence and returning to his his 2015-early 2016 form, winning at least two Slams in 2017, a couple more in 2018 to tie Federer, and then one or two more in 2019 or later to solidify his crown as the GOAT with most year-end #1s, Slams, Masters, and WTFs of all time.
Pessimistic (10%): This is the beginning of the end, and not only that it is coming quicker than we thought. He loses the #1 to Andy and struggles next year, winning one Slam at most, and perhaps just that one more for the rest of his career. He plays on a few more years, but greatly diminished.
Realistic (70%): He finds a form somewhat similar in level to 2012-14 for another year or two, when he remains the overall best player in the game, but now first among equals. He wins a few more Slams, passes Pete and Rafa but can't quite get to Roger. He loses the #1 ranking sometime in 2017 but gains it back, but loses it again--swapping it with Andy, and then other players in 2018 and beyond before losing it entirely in 2019 or so.

ANDY MURRAY
Optimistic (20%): With Novak now mortal, Andy has a late career peak, stealing the #1 from him. He wins a few more Slams, maybe even a year-end #1 in 2017, and is the overall best player in the sport for a couple years. He ends with 6-7 Slams.
Pessimistic (20%): After failing to get the #1, head-case Andy returns in 2017 and he never gets the #1, and doesn't even win another Slam. Just as Rafa started his decline in 2014, Novak (perhaps) in 2016, Andy is right behind in 2017.
Realistic (60%): He has a nice late career plateau, winning another Slam or two, finishing in the 4-5 range and solidifying his historical place as the "best of the rest" or "worst of the best," just as he was in his career. He does finally get the #1, although not for an extended period of time--instead passing it back and forth with Novak, and then other players, for a couple years.

--------------------

Based on the # matches played, condition, and to a lesser extent, age, here are what I feel the top players realistic chances are given the competition at the moment.

Andy Murray (791 matches played, 29) 2 to 4 majors
Murray has played 100+ fewer matches than Novak. That's about 1.5 years worth. But he also defends and runs a lot. I think he has one excellent year in him if he stays healthy. We will have to wait and see how he matches up with next year's top competitors, the young guns, and who plays better from the most established players.

Stan Wawrinka (683 matches played, 31) 1 to 3 majors.
His pattern is consistent in its inconsistency. Looks like he can win one top tournament a year for awhile. I don't know if he can get the last of the set at Wimbledon, but he is certainly capable at any of the others to repeat, and though older by 2 years, he has 100 fewer matches than Murray and 200 fewer than Djokovic mainly because of his inconsistency.

Novak Djokovic (898 matches played, 29) 0 to 3 majors.

RG was a watershed moment. He hasn't played well since, has apparently had some physical issues, and has made some strange statements lately that slams and ranking don't matter anymore, and may have personal issues. This is why I put 0 majors down as his low end.

He won't win a slam playing the way he has been recently. But he is still young enough in age to right the ship if he stays relatively healthy and can get motivated again. Still, his recent dominance has added a lot of matches to his total and is close to reaching the point where most stop winning the big tournaments.

Rafael Nadal over 30 and 980 matches played looks about done. His camp is using more and more feeble excuses and looking for bizarre solutions (balls need to be slower). He has slowed down, and lost power and confidence in his game, and all players know the patterns of play to beat him if they are solid and capable. He may have an outlier in him (max 1 major), but he seems less and less competitive once he reaches decent players. He needs to work very hard to remain near the top, and probably change some things to do better.

Roger Federer is an anomaly or throwback if you will. He made 2 slam finals at 1270 and 1282 matches played. Nobody, not Connors, not Lendl, not Agassi, has come close to doing this since the transition period into the Open Era when Rosewall made finals at age 39 and who knows how many matches played. So matches played is not as big a deal with Roger relative to other players considering his game. More important is his health and desire to compete at the top level.

But now Roger is in unknown territory. He suffered knee injury and surgery and will have taken six months off the tour. He'll be 36 next year and has over 1300 matches played. A lot depends how he comes back from his recuperation, if he comes back. For me he is also at best, an outlier candidate for winning a major, (max 1 major), though he could remain competitive for some time if he is healthy.

Possibly trumping all of these is Juan Martin Del Potro at age 28 and only 475 matches played. If he can complete getting that two handed drive back to its best and stay healthy, I believe he can dominate for the next 3 years. But those are big IFs. He is a big guy and those levers and power depend on his wrists taking the punishment.

Aside from these established players, I think the main competition in the next 3 years will finally come into play from some of the youngsters - so called #NextGen. It could happen quite fast as it often does in tennis. As soon as a Pouille or a Zverev, or even Kyrgios get their act together and win a couple of majors, they could simply kick the older guys out and that would be that.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[Carol]

The only thing I can read around here is the wish about Novak passing in GS to Nadal which doesn't tell me absolutely nothing, just a wish of his fans and of course of Roger's fans (it's part of their revenge and optimism) The reality? we'll see because no one around don't know how every single player is going to play the next months, we can think or having the opinion that this one or the other one his career is finished or close to retire or he will continue winning GS and titles or he won't but at the end everything will depend of them and not what we say, think and wish.

 

[sid]

Don't know how many more Slams will be won by these guy's said,but Potty can upset any of them if he's a 100% on his game.For me atm he's in the (who needs him club) on his side of the draw.

 

[El Dude]

Sooooo...basically you're saying -

Roger - done...except for the retirement tour

Nadal - done...except for the retirement tour

Nole - done...except for the retirement tour

Murray - done...except for the retirement tour

Except that's not at all what I said!

 

[El Dude]

SNIP

So I can Roger getting back into the Top 4 unless he just flat out has lost it after a 5 month layooff. I expect the early part of the season to be scratchy and he's already said he's not sure how it's going to go himself, but hopefully he'll have his game together by Wimbledon.

Good post, and I agree...not sure why you're saying we're disagreeing. I didn't say he'd struggle in 2017--just in the pessimistic version--just have some bumps in the road. But nice ramble.

 

[El Dude]

The only thing I can read around here is the wish about Novak passing in GS to Nadal which doesn't tell me absolutely nothing, just a wish of his fans and of course of Roger's fans (it's part of their revenge and optimism) The reality? we'll see because no one around don't know how every single player is going to play the next months, we can think or having the opinion that this one or the other one his career is finished or close to retire or he will continue winning GS and titles or he won't but at the end everything will depend of them and not what we say, think and wish.

Those bolded words are quite telling. The rest is just denial and sour grapes.

 

[El Dude]

A certain poster's latest bout of fangirlism about a certain player got me thinking: what are the possible outlooks for the Big Four going forward? For each I'll give an optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic variation. Optimistic is fanboyism/girlism, but distantly possible--just very unlikely. Pessimistic is the "hater" variant, but again a possibility. Realistic is the moderate view--it is what is (or I see to be) most likely to happen.

For the fun of it I also offered percentages, which are entirely subjective but perhaps add fodder for conversation.

ROGER FEDERER
Optimistic (>10%): His layoff gives him a burst of energy and youthfulness, a late career Renaissance. Maybe he doesn't get back to #1, but returns to the top 5 and with Rafa and Novak in decline and Andy being Andy, he wins another Slam--maybe even two--and gets to that 100 title mark. He plays until after his 40th birthday.
Pessimistic (30%): He struggles to come back in 2017, barely managing even the top 10. He gives it one more shot in 2018, but when it is clear he can't hang in the top 10 anymore he retires at Basel.
Realistic (60%): There are some bumps in the road, but Roger returns to the top 10, if slightly diminished from 2014-15. But he wins a few more titles, but no more Slams. He plays for a few more years.

RAFAEL NADAL
Optimistic (15%): After some soul-searching on a boat off the coast of Mallorca, Rafa has a eureka moment and figures out what is wrong and comes back surging. He dominates clay season, winning 2-3 Masters and RG, and then challenges for the US Open and the #1 ranking. He plays strong for another year or two, somehow evading injury long enough to get those 18 Slams to pass Roger. Carol is vindicated.
Pessimistic (25%): Not only does he not improve, but set-back after set-back finally gets to him. He doesn't do much during clay season, goes out early in Wimbledon and the US Open, and finally decides to call it quits, 2017 being his last year.
Realistic (60%): He soldiers on for another couple years, building on the resurgent form we saw earlier this year, having bursts here and there where he looks like the Rafa of old, although not for a sustained period. He comes close to winning Roland Garros in 2017 and may even win it, but at least wins a clay Master and another few titles.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC
Optimistic (20%): After some time off with the family, he comes back strong next year and wins AO, regaining confidence and returning to his his 2015-early 2016 form, winning at least two Slams in 2017, a couple more in 2018 to tie Federer, and then one or two more in 2019 or later to solidify his crown as the GOAT with most year-end #1s, Slams, Masters, and WTFs of all time.
Pessimistic (10%): This is the beginning of the end, and not only that it is coming quicker than we thought. He loses the #1 to Andy and struggles next year, winning one Slam at most, and perhaps just that one more for the rest of his career. He plays on a few more years, but greatly diminished.
Realistic (70%): He finds a form somewhat similar in level to 2012-14 for another year or two, when he remains the overall best player in the game, but now first among equals. He wins a few more Slams, passes Pete and Rafa but can't quite get to Roger. He loses the #1 ranking sometime in 2017 but gains it back, but loses it again--swapping it with Andy, and then other players in 2018 and beyond before losing it entirely in 2019 or so.

ANDY MURRAY
Optimistic (20%): With Novak now mortal, Andy has a late career peak, stealing the #1 from him. He wins a few more Slams, maybe even a year-end #1 in 2017, and is the overall best player in the sport for a couple years. He ends with 6-7 Slams.
Pessimistic (20%): After failing to get the #1, head-case Andy returns in 2017 and he never gets the #1, and doesn't even win another Slam. Just as Rafa started his decline in 2014, Novak (perhaps) in 2016, Andy is right behind in 2017.
Realistic (60%): He has a nice late career plateau, winning another Slam or two, finishing in the 4-5 range and solidifying his historical place as the "best of the rest" or "worst of the best," just as he was in his career. He does finally get the #1, although not for an extended period of time--instead passing it back and forth with Novak, and then other players, for a couple years.

--------------------

Based on the # matches played, condition, and to a lesser extent, age, here are what I feel the top players realistic chances are given the competition at the moment.

Andy Murray (791 matches played, 29) 2 to 4 majors
Murray has played 100+ fewer matches than Novak. That's about 1.5 years worth. But he also defends and runs a lot. I think he has one excellent year in him if he stays healthy. We will have to wait and see how he matches up with next year's top competitors, the young guns, and who plays better from the most established players.

Stan Wawrinka (683 matches played, 31) 1 to 3 majors.
His pattern is consistent in its inconsistency. Looks like he can win one top tournament a year for awhile. I don't know if he can get the last of the set at Wimbledon, but he is certainly capable at any of the others to repeat, and though older by 2 years, he has 100 fewer matches than Murray and 200 fewer than Djokovic mainly because of his inconsistency.

Novak Djokovic (898 matches played, 29) 0 to 3 majors.

RG was a watershed moment. He hasn't played well since, has apparently had some physical issues, and has made some strange statements lately that slams and ranking don't matter anymore, and may have personal issues. This is why I put 0 majors down as his low end.

He won't win a slam playing the way he has been recently. But he is still young enough in age to right the ship if he stays relatively healthy and can get motivated again. Still, his recent dominance has added a lot of matches to his total and is close to reaching the point where most stop winning the big tournaments.

Rafael Nadal over 30 and 980 matches played looks about done. His camp is using more and more feeble excuses and looking for bizarre solutions (balls need to be slower). He has slowed down, and lost power and confidence in his game, and all players know the patterns of play to beat him if they are solid and capable. He may have an outlier in him (max 1 major), but he seems less and less competitive once he reaches decent players. He needs to work very hard to remain near the top, and probably change some things to do better.

Roger Federer is an anomaly or throwback if you will. He made 2 slam finals at 1270 and 1282 matches played. Nobody, not Connors, not Lendl, not Agassi, has come close to doing this since the transition period into the Open Era when Rosewall made finals at age 39 and who knows how many matches played. So matches played is not as big a deal with Roger relative to other players considering his game. More important is his health and desire to compete at the top level.

But now Roger is in unknown territory. He suffered knee injury and surgery and will have taken six months off the tour. He'll be 36 next year and has over 1300 matches played. A lot depends how he comes back from his recuperation, if he comes back. For me he is also at best, an outlier candidate for winning a major, (max 1 major), though he could remain competitive for some time if he is healthy.

Possibly trumping all of these is Juan Martin Del Potro at age 28 and only 475 matches played. If he can complete getting that two handed drive back to its best and stay healthy, I believe he can dominate for the next 3 years. But those are big IFs. He is a big guy and those levers and power depend on his wrists taking the punishment.

Aside from these established players, I think the main competition in the next 3 years will finally come into play from some of the youngsters - so called #NextGen. It could happen quite fast as it often does in tennis. As soon as a Pouille or a Zverev, or even Kyrgios get their act together and win a couple of majors, they could simply kick the older guys out and that would be that.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Great post and I like your take, although I'd put Stan's low-end range at 0 and Andy's at 1. Why? Well, Stan should need no explanation: he could stop winning at any point. He is a rather unique player--I can't think of any historical precedents for a guy who started peaking in his late 20s, was a second tier player 95% of the time, but better than any of the elites 5% of the time. Lew Hoad, maybe? Although Hoad's base-level was much higher than Stan's, from what I gather.

As for Andy, I can see a narrative where he is the #1 next year, with Novak (possibly) struggling and no one else quite stepping up. But I agree with you that it will only be one year, that by 2018 we might have a very different order of things. Exciting times!

I have said for awhile that I could see Roger outlasting Rafa. We'll have to see, though, but even if Rafa has another surge in him, it will likely be short-lived. His realistic fans probably only hope for that one Slam you mention. Now Roger probably doesn't have another Slam in him, but if Novak continues to struggle and Roger comes back in 2014-15 form, he could be right back in the mix and get that elusive #18.

 

[Carol]

The only thing I can read around here is the wish about Novak passing in GS to Nadal which doesn't tell me absolutely nothing, just a wish of his fans and of course of Roger's fans (it's part of their revenge and optimism) The reality? we'll see because no one around don't know how every single player is going to play the next months, we can think or having the opinion that this one or the other one his career is finished or close to retire or he will continue winning GS and titles or he won't but at the end everything will depend of them and not what we say, think and wish.

Those bolded words are quite telling. The rest is just denial and sour grapes.

Bolded or logic words? 'denial' because I said that nobody knows what is going to happen the next months? why sour grapes, because Rafa has his mind in other world instead to be more focus on his game? well, it's just his fault and nobody else, if he is more concerned about his others bussiness, if he doesn't want to look for another coach like other players has done to get more help, if he has another priorities good for him but this sport is losing a superb player though even if you like or not he is still there, he needs just the 'click' , and call me 'positive', he will do

 

[Carol]

A certain poster's latest bout of fangirlism about a certain player got me thinking: what are the possible outlooks for the Big Four going forward? For each I'll give an optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic variation. Optimistic is fanboyism/girlism, but distantly possible--just very unlikely. Pessimistic is the "hater" variant, but again a possibility. Realistic is the moderate view--it is what is (or I see to be) most likely to happen.

For the fun of it I also offered percentages, which are entirely subjective but perhaps add fodder for conversation.

ROGER FEDERER
Optimistic (>10%): His layoff gives him a burst of energy and youthfulness, a late career Renaissance. Maybe he doesn't get back to #1, but returns to the top 5 and with Rafa and Novak in decline and Andy being Andy, he wins another Slam--maybe even two--and gets to that 100 title mark. He plays until after his 40th birthday.






Pessimistic (30%): He struggles to come back in 2017, barely managing even the top 10. He gives it one more shot in 2018, but when it is clear he can't hang in the top 10 anymore he retires at Basel.
Realistic (60%): There are some bumps in the road, but Roger returns to the top 10, if slightly diminished from 2014-15. But he wins a few more titles, but no more Slams. He plays for a few more years.

RAFAEL NADAL
Optimistic (15%): After some soul-searching on a boat off the coast of Mallorca, Rafa has a eureka moment and figures out what is wrong and comes back surging. He dominates clay season, winning 2-3 Masters and RG, and then challenges for the US Open and the #1 ranking. He plays strong for another year or two, somehow evading injury long enough to get those 18 Slams to pass Roger. Carol is vindicated.
Pessimistic (25%): Not only does he not improve, but set-back after set-back finally gets to him. He doesn't do much during clay season, goes out early in Wimbledon and the US Open, and finally decides to call it quits, 2017 being his last year.
Realistic (60%): He soldiers on for another couple years, building on the resurgent form we saw earlier this year, having bursts here and there where he looks like the Rafa of old, although not for a sustained period. He comes close to winning Roland Garros in 2017 and may even win it, but at least wins a clay Master and another few titles.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC
Optimistic (20%): After some time off with the family, he comes back strong next year and wins AO, regaining confidence and returning to his his 2015-early 2016 form, winning at least two Slams in 2017, a couple more in 2018 to tie Federer, and then one or two more in 2019 or later to solidify his crown as the GOAT with most year-end #1s, Slams, Masters, and WTFs of all time.
Pessimistic (10%): This is the beginning of the end, and not only that it is coming quicker than we thought. He loses the #1 to Andy and struggles next year, winning one Slam at most, and perhaps just that one more for the rest of his career. He plays on a few more years, but greatly diminished.
Realistic (70%): He finds a form somewhat similar in level to 2012-14 for another year or two, when he remains the overall best player in the game, but now first among equals. He wins a few more Slams, passes Pete and Rafa but can't quite get to Roger. He loses the #1 ranking sometime in 2017 but gains it back, but loses it again--swapping it with Andy, and then other players in 2018 and beyond before losing it entirely in 2019 or so.

ANDY MURRAY
Optimistic (20%): With Novak now mortal, Andy has a late career peak, stealing the #1 from him. He wins a few more Slams, maybe even a year-end #1 in 2017, and is the overall best player in the sport for a couple years. He ends with 6-7 Slams.
Pessimistic (20%): After failing to get the #1, head-case Andy returns in 2017 and he never gets the #1, and doesn't even win another Slam. Just as Rafa started his decline in 2014, Novak (perhaps) in 2016, Andy is right behind in 2017.
Realistic (60%): He has a nice late career plateau, winning another Slam or two, finishing in the 4-5 range and solidifying his historical place as the "best of the rest" or "worst of the best," just as he was in his career. He does finally get the #1, although not for an extended period of time--instead passing it back and forth with Novak, and then other players, for a couple years.

--------------------

Based on the # matches played, condition, and to a lesser extent, age, here are what I feel the top players realistic chances are given the competition at the moment.

Andy Murray (791 matches played, 29) 2 to 4 majors
Murray has played 100+ fewer matches than Novak. That's about 1.5 years worth. But he also defends and runs a lot. I think he has one excellent year in him if he stays healthy. We will have to wait and see how he matches up with next year's top competitors, the young guns, and who plays better from the most established players.

Stan Wawrinka (683 matches played, 31) 1 to 3 majors.
His pattern is consistent in its inconsistency. Looks like he can win one top tournament a year for awhile. I don't know if he can get the last of the set at Wimbledon, but he is certainly capable at any of the others to repeat, and though older by 2 years, he has 100 fewer matches than Murray and 200 fewer than Djokovic mainly because of his inconsistency.

Novak Djokovic (898 matches played, 29) 0 to 3 majors.

RG was a watershed moment. He hasn't played well since, has apparently had some physical issues, and has made some strange statements lately that slams and ranking don't matter anymore, and may have personal issues. This is why I put 0 majors down as his low end.

He won't win a slam playing the way he has been recently. But he is still young enough in age to right the ship if he stays relatively healthy and can get motivated again. Still, his recent dominance has added a lot of matches to his total and is close to reaching the point where most stop winning the big tournaments.

Rafael Nadal over 30 and 980 matches played looks about done. His camp is using more and more feeble excuses and looking for bizarre solutions (balls need to be slower). He has slowed down, and lost power and confidence in his game, and all players know the patterns of play to beat him if they are solid and capable. He may have an outlier in him (max 1 major), but he seems less and less competitive once he reaches decent players. He needs to work very hard to remain near the top, and probably change some things to do better.

Roger Federer is an anomaly or throwback if you will. He made 2 slam finals at 1270 and 1282 matches played. Nobody, not Connors, not Lendl, not Agassi, has come close to doing this since the transition period into the Open Era when Rosewall made finals at age 39 and who knows how many matches played. So matches played is not as big a deal with Roger relative to other players considering his game. More important is his health and desire to compete at the top level.

But now Roger is in unknown territory. He suffered knee injury and surgery and will have taken six months off the tour. He'll be 36 next year and has over 1300 matches played. A lot depends how he comes back from his recuperation, if he comes back. For me he is also at best, an outlier candidate for winning a major, (max 1 major), though he could remain competitive for some time if he is healthy.

Possibly trumping all of these is Juan Martin Del Potro at age 28 and only 475 matches played. If he can complete getting that two handed drive back to its best and stay healthy, I believe he can dominate for the next 3 years. But those are big IFs. He is a big guy and those levers and power depend on his wrists taking the punishment.

Aside from these established players, I think the main competition in the next 3 years will finally come into play from some of the youngsters - so called #NextGen. It could happen quite fast as it often does in tennis. As soon as a Pouille or a Zverev, or even Kyrgios get their act together and win a couple of majors, they could simply kick the older guys out and that would be that.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Great post and I like your take, although I'd put Stan's low-end range at 0 and Andy's at 1. Why? Well, Stan should need no explanation: he could stop winning at any point. He is a rather unique player--I can't think of any historical precedents for a guy who started peaking in his late 20s, was a second tier player 95% of the time, but better than any of the elites 5% of the time. Lew Hoad, maybe? Although Hoad's base-level was much higher than Stan's, from what I gather.

As for Andy, I can see a narrative where he is the #1 next year, with Novak (possibly) struggling and no one else quite stepping up. But I agree with you that it will only be one year, that by 2018 we might have a very different order of things. Exciting times!

I have said for awhile that I could see Roger outlasting Rafa. We'll have to see, though, but even if Rafa has another surge in him, it will likely be short-lived. His realistic fans probably only hope for that one Slam you mention. Now Roger probably doesn't have another Slam in him, but if Novak continues to struggle and Roger comes back in 2014-15 form, he could be right back in the mix and get that elusive #18.

So according to you, Rafa just will win one GS if he can because will be short-lived anyway and if Novak continues to struggle and Roger (at his almost 36) comes back in 2014-15 form he could get his "18". Are you sure that you are realistic? what about Muzz? I think that you forgot him but of course if he would start to struggle like he did before and if the youngest ones continue playing unstable and if the others player have injuries and if.. if ..if.. then Roger will have to play by himself and for sure he will get that coveted numbers, isn't?
I see that you like to read from some Rafa's fans what you like to read but not what I say, but hey, each one has his own thoughts and different opinion, we don't belong to any secta, we have the right to think in different way like I do

 

[El Dude]

You're ridiculous, Carol. I have clearly said that Rafa probably has a better chance of #15 than Roger of #18. I have said many times that #18 is unlikely. You're just looking to take offense and completely on the defensive.

But yeah, I think Rafa might win one more, but he also might win none, and less likely two or more. What you are in denial about is that the last 2.5 years are 2.5 years; you're acting like they're a couple months.

And it isn't unrealistic to think that Roger could be competitive again. Consider that he's played in three Slam finals and six semifinals since the last time Rafa made it past a Slam QF. Is it unreasonable to think that he's got as good a chance as Rafa, if not better, to return to competitiveness for another year or two?

 

[sid]

A certain poster's latest bout of fangirlism about a certain player got me thinking: what are the possible outlooks for the Big Four going forward? For each I'll give an optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic variation. Optimistic is fanboyism/girlism, but distantly possible--just very unlikely. Pessimistic is the "hater" variant, but again a possibility. Realistic is the moderate view--it is what is (or I see to be) most likely to happen.

For the fun of it I also offered percentages, which are entirely subjective but perhaps add fodder for conversation.

ROGER FEDERER
Optimistic (>10%): His layoff gives him a burst of energy and youthfulness, a late career Renaissance. Maybe he doesn't get back to #1, but returns to the top 5 and with Rafa and Novak in decline and Andy being Andy, he wins another Slam--maybe even two--and gets to that 100 title mark. He plays until after his 40th birthday.
Pessimistic (30%): He struggles to come back in 2017, barely managing even the top 10. He gives it one more shot in 2018, but when it is clear he can't hang in the top 10 anymore he retires at Basel.
Realistic (60%): There are some bumps in the road, but Roger returns to the top 10, if slightly diminished from 2014-15. But he wins a few more titles, but no more Slams. He plays for a few more years.

RAFAEL NADAL
Optimistic (15%): After some soul-searching on a boat off the coast of Mallorca, Rafa has a eureka moment and figures out what is wrong and comes back surging. He dominates clay season, winning 2-3 Masters and RG, and then challenges for the US Open and the #1 ranking. He plays strong for another year or two, somehow evading injury long enough to get those 18 Slams to pass Roger. Carol is vindicated.
Pessimistic (25%): Not only does he not improve, but set-back after set-back finally gets to him. He doesn't do much during clay season, goes out early in Wimbledon and the US Open, and finally decides to call it quits, 2017 being his last year.
Realistic (60%): He soldiers on for another couple years, building on the resurgent form we saw earlier this year, having bursts here and there where he looks like the Rafa of old, although not for a sustained period. He comes close to winning Roland Garros in 2017 and may even win it, but at least wins a clay Master and another few titles.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC
Optimistic (20%): After some time off with the family, he comes back strong next year and wins AO, regaining confidence and returning to his his 2015-early 2016 form, winning at least two Slams in 2017, a couple more in 2018 to tie Federer, and then one or two more in 2019 or later to solidify his crown as the GOAT with most year-end #1s, Slams, Masters, and WTFs of all time.
Pessimistic (10%): This is the beginning of the end, and not only that it is coming quicker than we thought. He loses the #1 to Andy and struggles next year, winning one Slam at most, and perhaps just that one more for the rest of his career. He plays on a few more years, but greatly diminished.
Realistic (70%): He finds a form somewhat similar in level to 2012-14 for another year or two, when he remains the overall best player in the game, but now first among equals. He wins a few more Slams, passes Pete and Rafa but can't quite get to Roger. He loses the #1 ranking sometime in 2017 but gains it back, but loses it again--swapping it with Andy, and then other players in 2018 and beyond before losing it entirely in 2019 or so.

ANDY MURRAY
Optimistic (20%): With Novak now mortal, Andy has a late career peak, stealing the #1 from him. He wins a few more Slams, maybe even a year-end #1 in 2017, and is the overall best player in the sport for a couple years. He ends with 6-7 Slams.
Pessimistic (20%): After failing to get the #1, head-case Andy returns in 2017 and he never gets the #1, and doesn't even win another Slam. Just as Rafa started his decline in 2014, Novak (perhaps) in 2016, Andy is right behind in 2017.
Realistic (60%): He has a nice late career plateau, winning another Slam or two, finishing in the 4-5 range and solidifying his historical place as the "best of the rest" or "worst of the best," just as he was in his career. He does finally get the #1, although not for an extended period of time--instead passing it back and forth with Novak, and then other players, for a couple years.

--------------------

Based on the # matches played, condition, and to a lesser extent, age, here are what I feel the top players realistic chances are given the competition at the moment.

Andy Murray (791 matches played, 29) 2 to 4 majors
Murray has played 100+ fewer matches than Novak. That's about 1.5 years worth. But he also defends and runs a lot. I think he has one excellent year in him if he stays healthy. We will have to wait and see how he matches up with next year's top competitors, the young guns, and who plays better from the most established players.

Stan Wawrinka (683 matches played, 31) 1 to 3 majors.
His pattern is consistent in its inconsistency. Looks like he can win one top tournament a year for awhile. I don't know if he can get the last of the set at Wimbledon, but he is certainly capable at any of the others to repeat, and though older by 2 years, he has 100 fewer matches than Murray and 200 fewer than Djokovic mainly because of his inconsistency.

Novak Djokovic (898 matches played, 29) 0 to 3 majors.

RG was a watershed moment. He hasn't played well since, has apparently had some physical issues, and has made some strange statements lately that slams and ranking don't matter anymore, and may have personal issues. This is why I put 0 majors down as his low end.

He won't win a slam playing the way he has been recently. But he is still young enough in age to right the ship if he stays relatively healthy and can get motivated again. Still, his recent dominance has added a lot of matches to his total and is close to reaching the point where most stop winning the big tournaments.

Rafael Nadal over 30 and 980 matches played looks about done. His camp is using more and more feeble excuses and looking for bizarre solutions (balls need to be slower). He has slowed down, and lost power and confidence in his game, and all players know the patterns of play to beat him if they are solid and capable. He may have an outlier in him (max 1 major), but he seems less and less competitive once he reaches decent players. He needs to work very hard to remain near the top, and probably change some things to do better.

Roger Federer is an anomaly or throwback if you will. He made 2 slam finals at 1270 and 1282 matches played. Nobody, not Connors, not Lendl, not Agassi, has come close to doing this since the transition period into the Open Era when Rosewall made finals at age 39 and who knows how many matches played. So matches played is not as big a deal with Roger relative to other players considering his game. More important is his health and desire to compete at the top level.

But now Roger is in unknown territory. He suffered knee injury and surgery and will have taken six months off the tour. He'll be 36 next year and has over 1300 matches played. A lot depends how he comes back from his recuperation, if he comes back. For me he is also at best, an outlier candidate for winning a major, (max 1 major), though he could remain competitive for some time if he is healthy.

Possibly trumping all of these is Juan Martin Del Potro at age 28 and only 475 matches played. If he can complete getting that two handed drive back to its best and stay healthy, I believe he can dominate for the next 3 years. But those are big IFs. He is a big guy and those levers and power depend on his wrists taking the punishment.

Aside from these established players, I think the main competition in the next 3 years will finally come into play from some of the youngsters - so called #NextGen. It could happen quite fast as it often does in tennis. As soon as a Pouille or a Zverev, or even Kyrgios get their act together and win a couple of majors, they could simply kick the older guys out and that would be that.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Great post and I like your take, although I'd put Stan's low-end range at 0 and Andy's at 1. Why? Well, Stan should need no explanation: he could stop winning at any point. He is a rather unique player--I can't think of any historical precedents for a guy who started peaking in his late 20s, was a second tier player 95% of the time, but better than any of the elites 5% of the time. Lew Hoad, maybe? Although Hoad's base-level was much higher than Stan's, from what I gather.

As for Andy, I can see a narrative where he is the #1 next year, with Novak (possibly) struggling and no one else quite stepping up. But I agree with you that it will only be one year, that by 2018 we might have a very different order of things. Exciting times!

I have said for awhile that I could see Roger outlasting Rafa. We'll have to see, though, but even if Rafa has another surge in him, it will likely be short-lived. His realistic fans probably only hope for that one Slam you mention. Now Roger probably doesn't have another Slam in him, but if Novak continues to struggle and Roger comes back in 2014-15 form, he could be right back in the mix and get that elusive #18.

Sorry I can not agree with this(was a second tier player 95% of the time) When Stan got beat in Slams most times he faced one of what was known as the big 4 most of the time.:-/

 

[Carol]

You're ridiculous, Carol. I have clearly said that Rafa probably has a better chance of #15 than Roger of #18. I have said many times that #18 is unlikely. You're just looking to take offense and completely on the defensive.

But yeah, I think Rafa might win one more, but he also might win none, and less likely two or more. What you are in denial about is that the last 2.5 years are 2.5 years; you're acting like they're a couple months.

And it isn't unrealistic to think that Roger could be competitive again. Consider that he's played in three Slam finals and six semifinals since the last time Rafa made it past a Slam QF. Is it unreasonable to think that he's got as good a chance as Rafa, if not better, to return to competitiveness for another year or two?

Don't you think that you are more ridiculous than me saying (in one word) because Nadal has been 2.5 years playing bad then he never can't be competitive but because Roger played three Slam finals and six semifinals has more chance to return to competitiveness?. Since I said that I think that Roger career is going to finish soon I see that you and his fans took it offense and defensive but it's my opinion same like you are thinking that Rafa won't be more competitive. If you are waiting that I say that he won't play well anymore because he is 30, because his body, etc etc, you are going to wait for awhile until I will be convinced that he won't, meanwhile like you are thinking that is reasonable that Roger could get as good a chance as Rafa ,"if not better" (do you see?) to return to competitiveness for one or two years I'm thinking that Rafa can win more than one GS and 2017 could be his opportunity, you don't think that way? it's ok, like I have said many times it doesn't matter what we think, like or wish, the game and result are in the players racquet and not in our hands. At the end everything is the same, 'to each his own theme', you are expecting that Federer come back playing well and competitive and could have the chance to get his "18" and me I'm expecting that Rafa wake up been able to play much better

 

[El Dude]

Again, you're twisting what I'm saying to fit your victim narrative about Rafa and his fans. My point was simply that Roger has been more successful than Rafa over the last 2-3 years, so it isn't crazy to think that he'll continue to be more successful. That said, I think Rafa's chances of one more Slam title are higher than Roger's. If it makes you feel any better .

 

[El Dude]

Sorry I can not agree with this(was a second tier player 95% of the time) When Stan got beat in Slams most times he faced one of what was known as the big 4 most of the time.:-/

Not sure what you think I mean by "second tier," but what I'm saying is that the vast majority of the time Stan plays like a top 10 player ala Berdych and Tsonga, not like a true elite. But every once in awhile he ups his game to super-elite status and seems capable of beating anyone, thus the three Slam titles. Combine the two and you have a #3-5 player over the last few years.

 

[masterclass]

--------------------
[snipped my analysis as you can read it above.]

[snipped El Dude's well reasoned response as you can read it above.]

So according to you, Rafa just will win one GS if he can because will be short-lived anyway and if Novak continues to struggle and Roger (at his almost 36) comes back in 2014-15 form he could get his "18". Are you sure that you are realistic? what about Muzz? I think that you forgot him but of course if he would start to struggle like he did before and if the youngest ones continue playing unstable and if the others player have injuries and if.. if ..if.. then Roger will have to play by himself and for sure he will get that coveted numbers, isn't?
I see that you like to read from some Rafa's fans what you like to read but not what I say, but hey, each one has his own thoughts and different opinion, we don't belong to any secta, we have the right to think in different way like I do

Murray is at the top of my list for good reason if you have been paying attention.

But nothing or nobody lasts forever, not Federer, not Nadal, not Djokivic, not Murray, et. al.
I think overall what I say is very realistic. I have said Roger and Rafa are very close to being done, I even said Roger might not be back. But I also can't write either off completely. They are each too great a player. But one cannot deny their mileage is high.

I base my analysis a lot on matches played, even more than age as I have pointed out here and other threads. There are very, very few exceptions in Open Era history.

These are my opinions based on over 40 years of watching/analyzing tennis players like Laver, Rosewall, Gonzales(z), Newcombe, Smith, etc., through Connors, Borg, Lendl, etc., Sampras, Agassi, and the current batch. But nothing is for sure, of course. These things are my best attempt to forecast what might happen. Whether you choose to believe differently or not is up to you.

IF Nadal, Federer, and perhaps Djokovic are not winning, someone else has to. Right now Murray is the prime candidate. Maybe Djokovic will come out of his funk, and challenge Murray, maybe not.
That's why I also mention other player possibilities.

I left the younger player part for the end, not because they have the slimmest chance, but to accentuate their chances by giving them the last word, and deservedly so. They have won nothing yet, but there is no doubt they will take over. The "Who" (not the band) exactly is not certain yet, though one could narrow it down to a list similar to mine. I believe "the When" will be very soon, perhaps as early as next year, but no later than the following year. I am very confident there will be a breakthrough by one or more. The ATP has no choice. The older established guys have to step aside. It has already been too long that they depended on Federer and Nadal. It was no surprise that ratings were down this year. There are too many investors involved to make that a trend. The tour needs young blood and new rivalries to succeed.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[sid]

Sorry I can not agree with this(was a second tier player 95% of the time) When Stan got beat in Slams most times he faced one of what was known as the big 4 most of the time.:-/

Not sure what you think I mean by "second tier," but what I'm saying is that the vast majority of the time Stan plays like a top 10 player ala Berdych and Tsonga, not like a true elite. But every once in awhile he ups his game to super-elite status and seems capable of beating anyone, thus the three Slam titles. Combine the two and you have a #3-5 player over the last few years.

For me if your a top pro tennis player he can not be called second tier even when he did not win Slams @ the time.Berdych and Tsonga have never won A slam & I don't think thay ever will,Stan I was not shocked when he did get his first Slam.Also most times when Stan was beat it was one of the big 4 guys more than not.