2022 USO SF: Jabeur vs. Garcia

[kskate2]

H2H

 

[Front242]

My PT put all his money on Nick to win the tournament at the start I hold him hang on, he just sent me an angry text lol! I said I did warn you anyway we are still alive with Caroline Garcia to win the USO ladies.

Yeah I think she'll win it. Put down €10 earlier anyway to get back €32 if she wins. Obviously crap odds compared to before the tournament began but I don't do outrights on slams. With the players remaining though, she strikes me as the best and most likely winner. Swiatek was favourite earlier but 2nd favourite now with García favourite now and her odds have dropped a little. Not much. €3 less now per €10 than earlier. Based on form Garcia is favourite. Swiatek only got the nod on ranking which means nothing.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Yeah I think she'll win it. Put down €10 earlier anyway to get back €32 if she wins. Obviously crap odds compared to before the tournament began but I don't do outrights on slams. With the players remaining though, she strikes me as the best and most likely winner.

Garcia was my dark horse pick before the draw came out, so hopefully she can go all the way, at present she has all the game to win

 

[Hailz]

Caroline is on a roll and I think she will stay on a roll and roll right into the Final of the USO. I think she will win in straight sets over Ons. Her serve is very good.

I actually think Caroline out of the 4 remaining players is going to be the Ladies USO Champion.

 

[Front242]

Changed my mind on this and I'm going with Jabeur to win. Hadn't voted but mentioned above I thought she'd win the title and my comment was moved to this thread. I'd prefer Garcia to win as I like her game more although Jabeur has a nice varied game style. Given they share a history of having the same coach, Jabeur has a 2-0 (and 6-0 if you count juniors) h2h against her and knows the weaknesses in her game and this is unchartered territory for Garcia whereas Jabeur has reached the Wimbledon final. On top of that, as much as Garcia's serving has been unreal, she's only winning 27% of her return games and will likely be nervous against an opponent she's never beaten going all the way back to juniors and also facing pressures of being at this stage of a slam for the first time.

As sad as I am to say it, I think Garcia's streak ends here as she's been the best WTA player post Wimbledon. It could even be a relatively easy win for Jabeur as long as her poor 2nd serve doesn't show up but 3 sets wouldn't be a surprise either. Cashed out my outright on Garcia 'cos I don't see her winning the tournament anymore let alone this match. I'd prefer if she did but sadly don't see it upon further studying of the stats. In terms of betting I have Jabeur simply to win the match without choosing set betting.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Changed my mind on this and I'm going with Jabeur to win. Hadn't voted but mentioned above I thought she'd win the title and my comment was moved to this thread. I'd prefer Garcia to win as I like her game more although Jabeur has a nice varied game style. Given they share a history of having the same coach, Jabeur has a 2-0 (and 6-0 if you count juniors) h2h against her and knows the weaknesses in her game and this is unchartered territory for Garcia whereas Jabeur has reached the Wimbledon final. On top of that, as much as Garcia's serving has been unreal, she's only winning 27% of her return games and will likely be nervous against an opponent she's never beaten going all the way back to juniors and also facing pressures of being at this stage of a slam for the first time.

As sad as I am to say it, I think Garcia's streak ends here as she's been the best WTA player post Wimbledon. It could even be a relatively easy win for Jabeur as long as her poor 2nd serve doesn't show up but 3 sets wouldn't be a surprise either. Cashed out my outright on Garcia 'cos I don't see her winning the tournament anymore let alone this match. I'd prefer if she did but sadly don't see it upon further studying of the stats. In terms of betting I have Jabeur simply to win the match without choosing set betting.

Well sometimes stats dont in matches, come true. Lets see how the match pans out

 

[Front242]

Well sometimes stats dont in matches, come true. Lets see how the match pans out

Not basing it on her having never beaten her as form counts more than that but more so because she's getting more nervous now on the big points and Jabeur will pounce all over that and Jabeur has been at the latter stage of big tournaments more so will be more used to the pressure. Jabeur though has frequent walkabouts and her 2nd serve has been pretty bad last few matches but Jabeur winning in 2 is my gut feeling but I'm not quite brave enough to pick that outcome yet for betting but may still. Much better odds than simply choosing the winner.

 

[Hailz]

I am throwing out all the previous stats between these two mostly because I think we are seeing a different Caroline Garcia of late. She is playing better than anyone on the tour right now and there is no reason to think that should come to an end.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Not basing it on her having never beaten her as form counts more than that but more so because she's getting more nervous now on the big points and Jabeur will pounce all over that and Jabeur has been at the latter stage of big tournaments more so will be more used to the pressure. Jabeur though has frequent walkabouts and her 2nd serve has been pretty bad last few matches but Jabeur winning in 2 is my gut feeling but I'm not quite brave enough to pick that outcome yet for betting but may still. Much better odds than simply choosing the winner.

I take your point from a betting perspective.

 

[Front242]

I am throwing out all the previous stats between these two mostly because I think we are seeing a different Caroline Garcia of late. She is playing better than anyone on the tour right now and there is no reason to think that should come to an end.

That was my opinion before too but changed my mind earlier today. First instincts are normally best but too often a red hot player who is steamrolling everyone loses and that's what I'm expecting now.

 

[Front242]

Garcia to win set 1 and lose the next 2 wouldn't surprise me actually.

 

[Hailz]

That was my opinion before too but changed my mind earlier today. First instincts are normally best but too often a red hot player who is steamrolling everyone loses and that's what I'm expecting now.

I think the steamroll continues. Her serve is too good.

 

[Front242]

I think the steamroll continues. Her serve is too good.

That's the problem right there. All it takes is nerves and her serve to be below par and she's not winning this and that's what I'm expecting. I'd prefer her to win though. She's 29 next month and this is her first ever slam semi. Big nerves right there.

 

[Hailz]

That's the problem right there. All it takes is nerves and her serve to be below par and she's not winning this and that's what I'm expecting. I'd prefer her to win though. She's 29 next month and this is her first ever slam semi. Big nerves right there.

The thing is this roll has not been going on for like just a week or two. This has been going on for like the entire Summer. You would think the nerves would have gotten to her by now and they really have not. I know this is the USO and a different ballgame, but she has looked pretty good so far.

 

[Front242]

The thing is this roll has not been going on for like just a week or two. This has been going on for like the entire Summer. You would think the nerves would have gotten to her by now and they really have not. I know this is the USO and a different ballgame, but she has looked pretty good so far.

Yup, she's been fantastic but she's now run into an opponent who's tricky play and who she hasn't beaten before and knows her weaknesses and both have had the same coach. That's my reasoning anyway. Yet another reason I'm pretty sure on this is a local bookie have a "special" for Garcia to win and both players to win a set at 4.2 which sounds too good to be true 'cos it likely is. They don't throw odds like that around unless they're sure it won't happen.

Steve Tignor has also picked Garcia I just noticed which doesn't bode well for her chances

 

[Hailz]

Yup, she's been fantastic but she's now run into an opponent who's tricky play and who she hasn't beaten before and knows her weaknesses and both have had the same coach. That's my reasoning anyway. Yet another reason I'm pretty sure on this is a local bookie have a "special" for Garcia to win and both players to win a set at 4.2 which sounds too good to be true 'cos it likely is. They don't throw odds like that around unless they're sure it won't happen.

I am pretty sure along this streak Caroline has had she has come up against several players that have been "tricky" opponents and also know her weaknesses. I think a major change in Caroline's play has come with the change from having her dad as her coach and now her coach now. It seems like a huge change has happened in her game. I am not very confident that both players are going to win a set. I think Caroline might get this done in straight sets.

 

[Front242]

I am pretty sure along this streak Caroline has had she has come up against several players that have been "tricky" opponents and also know her weaknesses. I think a major change in Caroline's play has come with the change from having her dad as her coach and now her coach now. It seems like a huge change has happened in her game. I am not very confident that both players are going to win a set. I think Caroline might get this done in straight sets.

Definitely see it as more likely to be a 2 setter. Hence that "special" with the bookies.

 

[AnonymousFan]

I'd be surprised if it's Ons in 2. Ons still gets too tight on big points IMO.

 

[Hailz]

Definitely see it as more likely to be a 2 setter. Hence that "special" with the bookies.

Bookies trying to steal your money.

 

[Front242]

Bookies trying to steal your money.

They get some suckers every day.