So. Here we go. The year's second slam.
Top players with possible injuries....
Osaka, Serena, Muguruza, Wozniacki (? always sort of an injury risk now? maybe), Svitolina, Kerber, Barty, Andreescu.
My favorites for the title, in no particular order....
Bertens, Halep, Stephens, Pliskova, Kvitova, Serena. I worry that's not creative enough, because this is the French. But with injuries possibly a big factor this time around and it's basically impossible to pick the surprise out of nowhere champion (a la Ostapenko in 2017), these are my favorites.
Dark horses (real dark horses, like not likely to win it but could go deep)
Kontaveit, Putintseva, Vondrousova, Kasatkina, Ostapenko, Vika, Garcia, Sakkari, Yastremska.
Bertens looked fantastic in Madrid and Rome and is definitely a favorite to take the title. I'm definitely pulling for Sloane and I don't hate her draw. It's not bad at all. ESPECIALLY if Muguruza AND Svitolina aren't fit enough to contend, there's basically no one until the quarters. Unless Venus gets inspired. And she still wouldn't be a favorite. Of course, if Svitolina is finally healthy, she should definitely be rested having played no matches this clay season. Just hard to pick her at all with little match play the last month. And if Muguruza is healthy, well... it seems like a long time ago now but I'm pretty sure the dominating, basically can't be stopped Muguruza is still in there somewhere. Kozlova is a young gun with nothing to lose. She could be the beneficiary of Venus v Svitolina. Or Pera could take her place. She has had a good couple weeks apparently. Still, Stephens looks to be the most likely candidate to come out of this eighth, though of course... she can lose to anyone if she doesn't show up that day. That is and will always be an issue with her. Stephens has never played Doi. So I'm already on edge.
Should she meet Bertens again, it's not like she can't beat Bertens on clay. She has for one. 6 years ago. She's a RG finalist, a grand slam champion. Bertens has always struggled with nerves. Bertens could be tired by the second week. And Sloane beat Bertens at the YEC last year on her way to the final. Right now, one of my favorite things is to see Sloane really slow down and think and dig in and fight with herself to stay focused and to just keep playing one more point. And when she's in that mood, she's not unbeaten, but she's REAL dangerous. I think it's entirely possible that a quarterfinal between those two decides the champion.I felt like Sloane was just finding her way into the match when Bertens won it in Madrid.
BUT, Halep ain't dead. Made a final. Played Kiki tough. Handed Kuzmova a double bagel. After handing Gasparyan a bagel in the first round. Beat Bencic in three. Won both of her Fed Cup matches on clay to Garcia and Mladenovic (who, by the way, could benefit if Pliskova falters. But probably just peaked briefly in Madrid and is back to her losing ways. I only mention her because she's French and that's always a thing.) She's still possibly the most consistent player on tour. We'll see how she deals with defending her first slam title. I honestly feel like Halep can't win simply because we haven't seen anyone not named Serena defend a slam title in a long time. Her second loss to Vondrousova of course makes ya wonder though.
I don't want to get too high on Bertens. I feel like she had a culmination of her entire career this clay season. But she's still beatable. Still hasn't taken a slam yet. Still has to work through that. But I also don't totally wanna do that because she was REALLY impressive in Madrid and Rome. She fully deserves all the pre-RG talk she's getting. But I'm still not sure we're done having surprise RG finalists and titlists. If it's gonna happen, it always feels like it's gonna happen here more than anywhere else. But also, technically it'd be Bertens first final. So, not a surprise, but still a new top woman on the scene, even if she was already there. But I don't wanna say it's wide open because I don't feel like it is.
For me, I don't really do semifinal or final picks. I basically look at who I think the main quarterfinalists will be because I feel like on the women's tour, anything can happen in just about any one match. So it could be that Halep, Bertens, Stephens, Pliskova and Kvitova all make the quarters. But none of them make the final. Unlikely. But possible. Mostly because Bertens and Stephens would have to play each other and Halep and Kvitova would have to play each other. But, you get the point.
I guess the main takeaways are... yes Osaka's quarter is really that open. Serena could take advantage. It's like the perfect kind of draw for her to play herself into. But we really don't know about her right now. Is she healthy or nah? So anyone could take advantage. Garcia should be confident. Vika has inner confidence. Sakkari is slowly but surely building. Ostapenko... almost certainly won't suddenly find her game again. But.... it wouldn't be the first time she came in unseeded and found her stride here. I mean. She gets to say that. I get to say that. Everyone gets to wonder that. For at least another 2 years. Especially here. Maybe Madison Keys could get in on that action. Defending semifinalist points here. Doesn't seem likely. But if she's healthy...
Hence my next takeaway. Injuries leave me guessing. No idea who is actually not gonna be able to perform and who will. Obviously that is always the case. But it feels like a bunch of top ladies are struggling right now.
Serena possibly the biggest question mark. But also, even if she's fully healthy.... while she can certainly run the gauntlet and take the title. I don't feel like she's there. Quarters? Sure. And of course Serena either usually loses in the quarters or makes the final.
But, while it's probably just my fandom, I'm in it for Sloane. She'll probably let me down. Because I'm not allowed to have nice things. Maybe because I root for people who aren't sure things. But.... her draw really isn't terrible. If she loses early or before the final at all, it'll probably be a tussle. It's kinda dumb, but I really do think Halep won't defend just because we haven't seen it in a while. That also applies to Sloane's final appearance from last year. Kvitova or Bertens? I can jive with that. Surprise finalist. I'd almost love to see it. Just to have one more young gun throw her hat in the ring. Or old gun. A la Vika.
It's gonna be a blast.
*Per the usual, I apologize for the length. Also, I'm doing a second post on my dark horses.
