Wimbledon Seedings

[rafanoy1992]

Rafanoy can you doublecheck your calculations. According to some other forum Roger and Rafa are likely to be seeded 4 and 3 respectively (in which case they can meet only in finals).

With Rafa not playing Queens, his points are fixed for determining his seed now. Also, while Novak has indicated that he wants to play warmup before Wimbledon, he has decided not to play in Queens or Halle. He will play only in the week before at Eastbourne. But, the tourneys in the week before are not counted. Hence, his points are also fixed for seeding purposes. So, it should not be hard to figure out. But, I got to go now.

GSM, here are the calculations:

First, here are the rankings without the grass points:

1.Murray 9390
2. Nadal 7285
3. Wawrinka 6175
4. Djokovic 5805
5. Federer 4765

Second, here are the rankings including the grass points from the last two years:

1. Murray = I will not add it
2. Nadal 7285 + 220 + 0 = 7505
3. Wawrinka 6175 + 305 + 45 = 6525
4. Djokovic 5805 + 1500 + 45 = 7350
5. Federer 4765 + 1275 + 990 = 7030

As you could see, with the grass points added, Wawrinka is out of the Top 4 and Federer is in...but it is still not enough to overtake Nadal AND Djokovic.

Now, if Federer wins Halle, then he will be the 2nd seed, Nadal will be the 3rd seed, and Djokovic will be the 4th seed.

 

[britbox]

Thanks @rafanoy1992 - good info.

 

[britbox]

We know Rafa and Novak will be on the same side of the draw by some strange twist of fate..i know I have seen it happen at least 20 times it seems

Based on rafanoy's data, if Federer wins Halle, then I'm guessing they can't be in the same side of the draw if they are 3 & 4 seeds. Might be a few twists and turns in how the seedings play out based on Halle.

 

[Moxie]

It's kinda funny that while some wonder if Rafa will get out of the first week at all, everyone is gaming whether or not they'll end up on the same side of the draw or not. And no one is especially worried about Novak or Stan. I have to say, I'd be surprised if Djokovic pulls his head back together from where it is to do well at Wimbledon, but Stan has Annacone starting with him, while still keeping Norman, and he's coming off of the RG final. He has a fair tail-wind.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

GSM, here are the calculations:

First, here are the rankings without the grass points:

1.Murray 9390
2. Nadal 7285
3. Wawrinka 6175
4. Djokovic 5805
5. Federer 4765

Second, here are the rankings including the grass points from the last two years:

1. Murray = I will not add it
2. Nadal 7285 + 220 + 0 = 7505
3. Wawrinka 6175 + 305 + 45 = 6525
4. Djokovic 5805 + 1500 + 45 = 7350
5. Federer 4765 + 1275 + 990 = 7030

As you could see, with the grass points added, Wawrinka is out of the Top 4 and Federer is in...but it is still not enough to overtake Nadal AND Djokovic.

Now, if Federer wins Halle, then he will be the 2nd seed, Nadal will be the 3rd seed, and Djokovic will be the 4th seed.

Thanks. I just want to mention one small point. Any points obtained by Fed (or any other player) in the warm up tourneys (except for the week before Wimbledon warm-ups) will actually double count (first it will go into their ranking and it will also be added to grass formula). So, it is enough for Roger to reach the finals of Halle to overtake Rafa. If he reaches finals, he will get 300 points, but it will really count as 600 and so his points will be 7630 which is more than 7505. Also, if he reaches SF (that will add 2 * 180 = 360), that is good enough to overtake Novak as 7390 > 7350 (but it is not a big deal whether you are #3 or #4).

So, bottom line as follows.

1. Roger reaches finals in Halle or better. Then Andy and Roger will be on opposite sides. Also, Rafa and Nole will be on opposite sides.
2. Roger falls before reaching finals in Halle. Then Andy and Rafa will be on opposite sides. Also, Roger and Nole will be on opposite sides.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is a link to a calculator that displays grass ranking points . The additions made by Rafanoy are incorrect. So, Ignore everything Rafanoy said and other said based on his numbers. Both the formula and the data used in this calculator are correct. Here are the important observations.

1. Fed is currently at #5 in the seedings formula based points. There still seems to be some chance of Fed being seeded below 4 depending on how Fed and Stan do this week. If Stan outperforms Fed, but neither win their tourneys, Fed will be seeded #5.

2. Andy has clinched #1 seed independent of what happens this week.

3. Novak has for all practical purposed clinched #2 seed. The only way he can lose it is if Stan wins Queens tourney (highly doubtful). Fed cannot overtake Novak and so Fed cannot be #2 seed even if he wins Halle.

4. If both the swiss players win their respective tournaments, Rafa will be seeded #5. Of course the chances of this happening is very minimal.

So, the most likely final scenario is that Andy will be #1, Novak will be #2 and thus will be on opposite sides of the draw. Roger and Rafa will be holding #3 and #4 (or vice versa) and thus will be on opposite sides of draw. However, these can change based on unlikely events mentioned above. So, we may after all have a Fedal final.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Here is a link to a calculator that displays grass ranking points . The additions made by Rafanoy are incorrect. So, Ignore everything Rafanoy said and other said based on his numbers. Both the formula and the data used in this calculator are correct. Here are the important observations.

1. Fed is currently at #5 in the seedings formula based points. There still seems to be some chance of Fed being seeded below 4 depending on how Fed and Stan do this week. If Stan outperforms Fed, but neither win their tourneys, Fed will be seeded #5.

2. Andy has clinched #1 seed independent of what happens this week.

3. Novak has for all practical purposed clinched #2 seed. The only way he can lose it is if Stan wins Queens tourney (highly doubtful). Fed cannot overtake Novak and so Fed cannot be #2 seed even if he wins Halle.

4. If both the swiss players win their respective tournaments, Rafa will be seeded #5. Of course the chances of this happening is very minimal.

So, the most likely final scenario is that Andy will be #1, Novak will be #2 and thus will be on opposite sides of the draw. Roger and Rafa will be holding #3 and #4 (or vice versa) and thus will be on opposite sides of draw. However, these can change based on unlikely events mentioned above.

You are right GSM! They only take 75% of the BEST grass court tournament from 2 years ago. I thought ALL the grass court tournaments are added from 2 years ago.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You are right GSM! They only take 75% of the BEST grass court tournament from 2 years ago. I thought ALL the grass court tournaments are added from 2 years ago.

We knew that already (see first few posts of this thread). MJT was doing the calculations based on it and so I was taking it easy. But, he left the forum recently due to getting annoyed by other posters.

 

[Carol]

It seems that all those numbers from those first posts of this thread have changed a lot already.....

 

[GameSetAndMath]

With Stan's early exit at Queens, the situation has become lot clearer. Here are the important observations.

1. As stated before, Murray will be #1 seed.
2. Novak has clinched #2 seed, independent of what might happen this week.
3. Rafa is guaranteed of #3 or #4 seed. He will be #4 if Roger wins Halle and #3 otherwise.
4. Fed is not yet guaranteed of getting a top four seed.
5. If Fed wins two rounds at Halle, then he is guaranteed of #4 seed or better. Fed has already won his first round match against Sugita. He needs to win against Mischa Zverev in second round to guarantee himself a top four seeding at Wimbledon.
6. If Fed wins Halle, he will get #3 seed at Wimbledon.

Bottom line is that Murray and Novak have already clinched the #1 and #2 spots and will be on opposite sides of draw.
Federer and Nadal are highly likely to be seeded #3 and #4 (or vice versa) and thus will find themselves in opposite sides
of draw. Needless to say that it would mean that Fedal cannot happen before finals at Wimbledon.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

With today's win over Mischa, Roger has guaranteed himself (finally) a top 4 seeding.

The top five seeding picture is now clear.

#1 - Andy
#2 - Novak
#3-4 - Rafa and Roger (or vice versa)
#5 - Stan

Roger becomes #3 seed if he wins Halle (Rafa will then be #4) and becomes #4 seed otherwise (Rafa will then be #3).But, it is totally inconsequential as far as gaining advantage in draw is concerned.

Order is now restored. All members of big four will own one quarter after quite a while.

The key point is that Fedal cannot happen before finals. Anybody wants to bet on Fedal final becoming reality?

#6, #7, #8 are likely to be Raonic, Cilic and Thiem in that order (although it is not ironclad as of now).

 

[Moxie]

Thanks for figuring that out. I'd love to see another Fedal final, though I think it might have help Rafa a bit if they'd have been to meet in the SFs.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Top 5 seeds are confirmed now.

1. Andy
2. Novak
3. Fed
4. Rafa
5. Stan
6/7. Raonic/Cilic
8. Thiem

If Cilic wins London he is sixth seed. Otherwise, he is 7th seed.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

With Cilic losing the finals, Raonic gets the 6th seed.

Here are the top 16 seeds at Wimbledon. It is all confirmed now as the next week's events don't play a role. Special Kudos to Gilles Muller for making it into top 16 seeds. A member of big four has to deal with Muller in R4. Could that be Rafa.

1. Andy
2. Novak
3. Fed
4. Rafa
5. Stan
6. Raonic
7. Cilic
8. Thiem
9. Nishi
10. Sasha
11. Berdych
12. Tsonga
13. Grigor
14. Lucas
15. Monfils
16. Muller

 

[the AntiPusher]

With Cilic losing the finals, Raonic gets the 6th seed.

Here are the top 16 seeds at Wimbledon. It is all confirmed now as the next week's events don't play a role. Special Kudos to Gilles Muller for making it into top 16 seeds. A member of big four has to deal with Muller in R4. Could that be Rafa.

1. Andy
2. Novak
3. Fed
4. Rafa
5. Stan
6. Raonic
7. Cilic
8. Thiem
9. Nishi
10. Sasha
11. Berdych
12. Tsonga
13. Grigor
14. Lucas
15. Monfils
16. Muller

Nobody , well Rafa isn't worried bout Giles Muller..does this means that Rafa is in Murray's half of the draw?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nobody , well Rafa isn't worried bout Giles Muller..does this means that Rafa is in Murray's half of the draw?

We would not know whether Rafa is in Murray's half or not until the draw comes out. There is a 50% chance of that happening.
The only thing we can say now is that Andy and Novak will be on opposite halves and so Nolandy cannot happen before finals.
Similarly, we can say that Federer and Nadal will be on opposite halves and so Fedal cannot happen before finals.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are some dangerous floaters (unseeded players who might cause an upset on a good day).

1. Verdasco
2. Nicolas Mahut
3. Dustin Brown
4. Tommy Haas
5. Stakhovsky

It looks like Rosol needs to qualify to play in Wimbledon. Haven't heard much about him recently.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Edit to previous post. Both Stakhovsky and Rosol are in the qualifying draw and need to qualify to play at Wimbledon.

 

[Moxie]

Here are some dangerous floaters (unseeded players who might cause an upset on a good day).

1. Verdasco
2. Nicolas Mahut
3. Dustin Brown
4. Tommy Haas
5. Stakhovsky

It looks like Rosol needs to qualify to play in Wimbledon. Haven't heard much about him recently.

Rosol never really made hay out of his big upset. I'm not sure I'd put Mahut in there, but what about Khakanov (34), Paire (43), and Kohlscreiber (57)? They're all tricky.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rosol never really made hay out of his big upset. I'm not sure I'd put Mahut in there, but what about Khakanov (34), Paire (43), and Kohlscreiber (57)? They're all tricky.

Khachanov got #31 seed due to his grass court performance. Kohly is tricky, but is getting old. I don't consider Paire to be tricky.