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Obviously, we are talking about GS count. I found the following article on the
web. It was written on Rafa's birthday this year, before he won this year's French Open.
Nonetheless, the methodlogy behind the analysis done there seems sound.
As per the analysis, Rafa has just 21.5% chances of surpassing Fed and
17.3% chances of tieing Fed. But, there is an overwhelming 61.2% chance of
Fed staying ahead in the end.
Here is the detailed analysis The basic methodology uses the distribution
of ages of slam winner (Dudesque) while taking into account that Roger and Rafa are
not ordinary players (uses a multiplying factor for their greatness). Have fun.
p.s. Warning: It uses joint probability distribution and binomial theorem to boot.
web. It was written on Rafa's birthday this year, before he won this year's French Open.
Nonetheless, the methodlogy behind the analysis done there seems sound.
As per the analysis, Rafa has just 21.5% chances of surpassing Fed and
17.3% chances of tieing Fed. But, there is an overwhelming 61.2% chance of
Fed staying ahead in the end.
Here is the detailed analysis The basic methodology uses the distribution
of ages of slam winner (Dudesque) while taking into account that Roger and Rafa are
not ordinary players (uses a multiplying factor for their greatness). Have fun.
p.s. Warning: It uses joint probability distribution and binomial theorem to boot.