Warming up to USO

[GameSetAndMath]

Now that Olympics is over, there are exactly four weeks (Washington DC, Toronto, Cincy and Winston-Salem) left before USO starts. This year's edition is going to be particularly exciting with various questions such as

1. Can Novak complete CYGS?
2. Can Ralph stop Novak at USO, if they meet?
3. Which next genner will shine at USO? Will it be Med, Sasha, Perseus or someone else?
4. Will Roger demonstrate semblance of TMF?

Here are the latest odds after the bookies had some time to digest Novak's failure and tantrums in Tokyo.

1. Novak ---- 39/40 ~ 50.63%
2. Ralph ---- 7 ~ 12.50%
3. Medvedev ---- 38/5 ~ 11.63%
4. Sasha ----- 12 ~ 7.69%
5. Perseus ------ 16 ~ 6.25%
6. Babycake ---- 27 ~ 3.57%
7. Shapo ------ 50 ~ 1.96%
8. Quadragenerian --- ~ 1.82%

As you can see, Novak has more chances of winning the USO than the rest of the field combined; but only barely larger.

What do you think?

p.s. Please note that you can change your vote in the poll as many times as you like as long as you do it before USO starts.

 

[Moxie]

Thanks for making this thread, @GameSetAndMath. The conversation was starting on the Olympics one, so good idea to bring a place to talk about the USO, since all eyes will be on it. Obviously, it's going to be interesting to see what happens at the tune-ups. Novak playing one, Roger and Rafa two, but not the same two. I'm going to suggest that this might be the time for Zverev to shine. Many like to say he hasn't done that well in Bo5, but he's still just 24, and he's looking good, atm. If he can keep his serve under control, and his nerve, he might be the Next Gen of the USO. That said, Medvedev coming onto the part of the year when he tends to shine.

As to your question #1, which is everyone's question: CAN Novak win the CYGS? He can, but will he? I actually think that this is a circumstance when Bo5 doesn't serve him. If he's really as mentally and physically exhausted as he claims, there isn't a lot of recovery time. And the US Open field won't be as forgiving as the Olympic one. Plus, heat and humidity usually play a role in NYC at that time.

As to Roger, it would be nice to see him finally round into form for NY. Perhaps we get that elusive Fedal match in Flushing Meadows?

 

[the AntiPusher]

Novak needs to be suspended for a few months...his antics is embarrassing to the ATP shield ️.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

@Moxie, you should note that Novak's chances are four times as much as Ralph's as per bookies despite the fact that Ralph is second in line for the title.

 

[Moxie]

@Moxie, you should note that Novak's chances are four times as much as Ralph's as per bookies despite the fact that Ralph is second in line for the title.

You already pointed that out. I have also told you many times that I think the bookies don't know shit from shinnola about tennis. They are recentists, and they only care about money, not tennis. Your point, then?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I don't think anyone can stop Ralph at Washington DC.

But, in Toronto, one of the next genners will get him.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You already pointed that out.

While I put the numbers out, I did not really point that out.

However, I should not have pointed out knowing you don't care for bookies.

 

[Moxie]

While I put the numbers out, I did not really point that out.

However, I should not have pointed out knowing you don't care for bookies.

My point is that I think we know more than they do, about the more subtle issues. I don't think that bookies' notion that Novak's chances are 4x that of Rafa's means anything. Rafa has a better record at the USO than Novak, 4-3. He'll come in more rested, and he has a better h2h than Novak there, in the big moments. 4 times as likely to win, Novak? I think that's a stretch. Because you have to admit, of the two, the more likely for early upset is Novak, based on pressure, his admitted stress and burn out. Your bookies just don't look at those subtleties.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Moxie,

In regards to the Canadian Open which Rafa has won 5 titles his most recent in 2019.If Rafa wins in 2021 (Toronto)) he will tie with Ivan Lendl's record of six titles in this tournament.

 

[Moxie]

Let's put the booking odds another way. All they game is the patently obvious. Meaning that, we all know THAT is what is the most likely thing to happen. But they don't prognosticate anything. Yet you seem to be so interested in just how likely they find the obvious. Why? They just give a very pedestrian likelihood. Let's look at 2019 USO, for example: Nadal was 2nd most likely to win, yes, but what were the odds on Medvedev even making the final? Did they predict a Zverev v Khachanov final at the OG?

 

[Moxie]

Moxie,

In regards to the Canadian Open which Rafa has won 5 titles his most recent in 2019.If Rafa wins in 2021 (Toronto)) he will tie with Ivan Lendl's record of six titles in this tournament.

I'm hoping that Rafa is coming into this season in fighting mode, and should win both DC and Toronto. Given the field in DC, and the drop-outs in Canada, that should be doable.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I'm hoping that Rafa is coming into this season in fighting mode, and should win both DC and Toronto. Given the field in DC, and the drop-outs in Canada, that should be doable.

Rafa hasn't had match play since RG,he has trained well on HC,hopefully that will translate in the 2 tournaments.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

My point is that I think we know more than they do, about the more subtle issues. I don't think that bookies' notion that Novak's chances are 4x that of Rafa's means anything. Rafa has a better record at the USO than Novak, 4-3. He'll come in more rested, and he has a better h2h than Novak there, in the big moments. 4 times as likely to win, Novak? I think that's a stretch. Because you have to admit, of the two, the more likely for early upset is Novak, based on pressure, his admitted stress and burn out. Your bookies just don't look at those subtleties.

I agree that 4 times is an exaggeration. But, I would definitely agree with their assessment that Novak has better chances than Ralph (which you probably don't ).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I'm hoping that Rafa is coming into this season in fighting mode, and should win both DC and Toronto. Given the field in DC, and the drop-outs in Canada, that should be doable.

There is nobody to stop Rafa in DC and so he should win it. Also, Rafa is a creature of habit and a momentum player. So, most probably he will ride out the momentum and win Toronto too (not to mention it is probably his favorite hard court tourney).

However, after that there are two weeks of gap. That is probably bit long. So, hopefully most of the momentum will go down the drain.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think among the various next generation players, Med and Shapo will be the two who outshine other next gen players at this year's USO.

 

[don_fabio]

Saw some new photos of Rafa. He looks like he put on some muscles in upper body. He did a good choice to skip Wimbledon and work on his fitness and game. I believe he will come back strong after a few months of rest. Bookies are underestimating his chances same as they underestimated Novak's chances this year RG. One might say what does his photo of muscles mean at all. I don't know, maybe it means nothing, but I have a feeling that Rafa will do well this summer and this is coming from a Novak fan.

 

[Moxie]

There is nobody to stop Rafa in DC and so he should win it. Also, Rafa is a creature of habit and a momentum player. So, most probably he will ride out the momentum and win Toronto too (not to mention it is probably his favorite hard court tourney).

However, after that there are two weeks of gap. That is probably bit long. So, hopefully most of the momentum will go down the drain.

Last time Rafa won the US Open (2019) he didn't play between Canada and the USO, and he won both, so that should be ok.

 

[Moxie]

Jannick Sinner to play Seb Korda in DC this afternoon. I can't watch any tennis this week, but that could be an interesting contest between two young hot shots.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Jannick Sinner to play Seb Korda in DC this afternoon. I can't watch any tennis this week, but that could be an interesting contest between two young hot shots.

That would be a match where I would be rooting for both players.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Is Isner not playing in DC? If so, how come? Usually he signs up for all hard court NA tourneys before USO and then loses in the third round at USO.