The Rankings Thread (ATP)

[Moxie]

At this point, the Race rankings are what matters in terms of year-end #1 -- that is, in terms of what they need to do from here on out. Or to put it another way, Jannik needs to win +1541 more points for the rest of the year than Carlos.

But you are correct that Carlos has a ways to go to overtake Sinner, but consider their points to defend:

Sinner: 5830
Alcaraz: 1060

That's why there's such a huge disparity between rankings and race rankings. To be #1, Jannik is going to have to defend a good portion of that, while Carlos--as long as he doesn't go walk-about like last year--will continue to narrow the gap.

I think we all sometimes get confused between the race to the YE#1, and the rolling rankings.

 

[El Dude]

I think we all sometimes get confused between the race to the YE#1, and the rolling rankings.

Well, the simplest way to understand it is:

• ATP Rank = Last 52 weeks
• Race = calendar year only

The two converge at the end of the year and, after the Tour Finals (mid-November), are the same.

I think where people get confused is that the Race ranking means very little early on, but then starts holding weight once you get deeper into the season and start thinking about year-end #1.

 

[Fiero425]

Well, the simplest way to understand it is:

• ATP Rank = Last 52 weeks
• Race = calendar year only

The two converge at the end of the year and, after the Tour Finals (mid-November), are the same.

I think where people get confused is that the Race ranking means very little early on, but then starts holding weight once you get deeper into the season and start thinking about year-end #1.

It can happen again where a player owns 2 majors, but still falls short of YE #1 like Novak did in 2016! Last I looked Sinner was up around 3400 pts. over Carlos! That's a lot; esp. w/ Sinner's suspension & Alcaraz's Masters wins! It'll probably go down to the YEC in Nov. if Alcaraz is able to take over #1!

 

[Jelenafan]

Last year post Wimbledon Sinner accumulated 7000 plus points as opposed to Alcaraz just over 1000. Not sure what will happen but I’d wager we are not going to repeat the same abysmal HC fall season for Carlos.

 

[El Dude]

It can happen again where a player owns 2 majors, but still falls short of YE #1 like Novak did in 2016! Last I looked Sinner was up around 3400 pts. over Carlos! That's a lot; esp. w/ Sinner's suspension & Alcaraz's Masters wins! It'll probably go down to the YEC in Nov. if Alcaraz is able to take over #1!

Well again, in terms of the year-end ranking, all that matters is the Race and right now Alcaraz is up 1540: Alcaraz 7540, Sinner 6000.

Of course 1540 points isn't a great lead for Carlos, because we're entering a lot of hardcourt play - and Sinner has a sizable edge.

That also means that if both took the rest of the year off and no one caught them, Alcaraz would finish #1.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Since the inaugural ATP Tour season in 1990, Jannik Sinner is now just the fifth ATP #1 to crack 12,000 ranking points along with Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray
This stat is only relevant 2009-25 season, the point system changed in 2009

 

[El Dude]

Since the inaugural ATP Tour season in 1990, Jannik Sinner is now just the fifth ATP #1 to crack 12,000 ranking points along with Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray

Note that the point system changed in 2009, with much lower numbers in 2008 and before (During Roger's best season in 2006 he had 8370 ranking points...translated to 2009 and later, it would be over 15,000). So this fact is only relevant for 2009-25.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Note that the point system changed in 2009, with much lower numbers in 2008 and before (During Roger's best season in 2006 he had 8370 ranking points...translated to 2009 and later, it would be over 15,000). So this fact is only relevant for 2009-25.

Thanks I realize that it is only relevant for 2009-25 I have adjusted my original post.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

BTW Jannik has now qualified for the end of year ATP finals in Turin with 6000 points.
Alcaraz already qualified with 7,540 points

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

New Career Highs ATP Top 100, Monday 21st July

8. Shelton
18. Cobolli
35. Diallo
47. Fonseca
50. Munar
66. Kovacevic
83 De Jong
84. Walton
97 Misolic ( topp 100 debut)

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

New ATP Top Ten, Monday 21st July,

1. Sinner 12,030
2. Alcaraz 8,600
3. Zverev 6,030
4. Fritz 5,035
5.Draper 4,650
6. Djokovix 4,130
7. Musetti 3,350
8 Shelton 3,330 (+1) Career high
9. Rune 3,250 (-1)
10 Rublec 3,160

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

New ATP Top Ten before Toronto Monday 28th July,

1. Sinner 12,030
2. Alcaraz 8,600
3. Zverev 6,030
4. Fritz 5,135
5. Draper 4,650
6. Djokovic 4,130
7. Shelton 3,520 ( +1) Career High
8. du Minaur 3,335 (+5)
9. Rune 3,250
10. Musetti 3,195 (-3)

New Career Highs on ATP Top 100, Monday 28th July,

7. Shelton
17.Cobolli
19 Davidovich Fokina
46 Moutet
47 Carabelli
61 Tien
62 Kovacevic
79 De Jong
84 Tabarner
95 Misolic
79

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Race To Turin after Toronto Monday 28th July,

1 Alcaraz 7,540
2 Sinner 6,000
3 Djokovic 3,380
4. Zverev 3,290
5 Draper 2,940
6. Musetti 2,620
7 Fritz 2,575
8 de Minaur 2,545

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

New ATP Top Ten after Toronto,

1. Sinner 12,030
2. Alcaraz 8,600
3 Zverev 6,380
4. Fritz 5,485
5. Draper 4,650
6. Shelton 4,320 (+1) Career High
7 Djokovic 4,130 (-1)
8 de Minaur 3,480
9 Rune 3,340
10.Rublev 3,210 (+1)
( Musetti leaves the top ten)

New Career Highs on ATP Top 100
6. Shelton
18 Davidovich Fokina
19 Popyrin
44 Moutet
48 Munar
55 Tien
83 Taberner
98 Schoolkate

ATP Race After Toronto
1 Alcaraz 7,550
2. Sinner 6,010
3. Zverev 3,690 (+1)
4. Shelton 3,420 (+5)
5 Djokovic 3,380 (-2)
6 Fritz 2,975 (+1)
7 Draper 2,940 (-1)
8 de Minaur 2,775

 

[El Dude]

Looking at the race, I'm a bit surprised that Draper hasn't made more progress. I suppose the big weakness in his points total is the lack of deep Slam runs. With two R16 and one R64 finish, he's only earned 450 points at Slams this year, or 15% of his points. Compare:

Alcaraz 3700 at Slams (49%)
Sinner 5300 (88%)
Zverev 1710 (46%)
Shelton 1400 (58%)
Djokovic 2400 (71%)
Fritz 910 (31%)
Draper 450 (15%)
De Minaur 650 (23%)

 

[Fiero425]

Looking at the race, I'm a bit surprised that Draper hasn't made more progress. I suppose the big weakness in his points total is the lack of deep Slam runs. With two R16 and one R64 finish, he's only earned 450 points at Slams this year, or 15% of his points. Compare:

Alcaraz 3700 at Slams (49%)
Sinner 5300 (88%)
Zverev 1710 (46%)
Shelton 1400 (58%)
Djokovic 2400 (71%)
Fritz 910 (31%)
Draper 450 (15%)
De Minaur 650 (23%)

Shows how much I keep up w/ the news, facts, & possibilities! I had totally forgotten Alcaraz lost in the 2nd Rd. of the USO last season to Botic van de Zandschulp! Carlos only lost 40 pts. while Jannik dropped the full 2000 ATP pts. he won last yr.! Accordingly, Alcaraz has unofficially taken over the LIVE Tennis ATP Ranking of #1...as of NOW! Djokovic leaps 1 spot over Draper!

#1 Carlos Alcaraz - 9550 (-40)
#2 Jannik Sinner - 9490 (-1990)
......
#6 Novak Djokovic - 4040 (-90)

 

[El Dude]

Shows how much I keep up w/ the news, facts, & possibilities! I had totally forgotten Alcaraz lost in the 2nd Rd. of the USO last season to Botic van de Zandschulp! Carlos only lost 40 pts. while Jannik dropped the full 2000 ATP pts. he won last yr.! Accordingly, Alcaraz has unofficially taken over the LIVE Tennis ATP Ranking of #1...as of NOW! Djokovic leaps 1 spot over Draper!

#1 Carlos Alcaraz - 9550 (-40)
#2 Jannik Sinner - 9490 (-1990)
......
#6 Novak Djokovic - 4040 (-90)

Again, remember that the Race matters more now, in terms of predicting the year end #1. Carlos is significantly ahead:

1. Alcaraz 8550
2. Sinner 6660
3. Zverev 4040
4. Shelton 3660
5. Djokovic 3430

That's a solid lead for Carlos - he'd probably have to go out early at the USO and/or do poorly after in order for Jannik to catch him. But it ain't over yet, obviously.

 

[El Dude]

Race update, after USO:

1. Alcaraz 10540
2. Sinner 7950
3. Djokovic 4180
4. Zverev 4130
5. Shelton 3710
6. Fritz 3465
7. De Minaur 3145
8. Musetti 3070
9. Draper 2990
10. Auger-Aliassime 2705

Look at Felix, sneaking into the top 10.

So there's 3500 points left in big titles, with two pairs of ATP 500s, so in theory a max of 4500 ATP points could be earned, if a player were to win all five tournaments. But that's obviously very unlikely.

Carlos is increasing the gap and is now 2590 points ahead of Jannik. Jannik will need an autumn miracle to earn YE #1....or at least for Carlos to stumble. But imagine a best case scenario for Jannik: He wins a Masters, reaches the final of another Masters, wins the Tour Finals without losing a match, plus one ATP 500, he'd earn 3600 points...meaning, Carlos would only have to earn 1020 points to keep his lead.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

New ATP Top Ten, after the USO, Monday 8th September,

1. Alcaraz 11,540 (+1)
2. Sinner 10,780 (-1)
3. Zverev 5,930
4. Djokovic 4,830 (+3)
5. Fritz 4,675 (-1)
6. Shelton 4,280
7. Draper 3,690 (-2)
8. de Minaur 3,545
9. Musetti 3,505 (+1)
10. Khackanov 3,280 (-1)

 

[Jelenafan]

Race update, after USO:

1. Alcaraz 10540
2. Sinner 7950
3. Djokovic 4180
4. Zverev 4130
5. Shelton 3710
6. Fritz 3465
7. De Minaur 3145
8. Musetti 3070
9. Draper 2990
10. Auger-Aliassime 2705

Look at Felix, sneaking into the top 10.

So there's 3500 points left in big titles, with two pairs of ATP 500s, so in theory a max of 4500 ATP points could be earned, if a player were to win all five tournaments. But that's obviously very unlikely.

Carlos is increasing the gap and is now 2590 points ahead of Jannik. Jannik will need an autumn miracle to earn YE #1....or at least for Carlos to stumble. But imagine a best case scenario for Jannik: He wins a Masters, reaches the final of another Masters, wins the Tour Finals without losing a match, plus one ATP 500, he'd earn 3600 points...meaning, Carlos would only have to earn 1020 points to keep his lead.

The fat lady is almost clearing her voice…