Taking Stock of the Big Five - Predictions going forward

[atttomole]

That comment is not without merit, and not without sentimentality. While the middle generation has had nothing to say for itself, there are young players in the waiting who are actually on the brink. I'm only saying that what we see today is not what we'll see tomorrow.

That is true. Remember we are in the realm of speculation. Yes, there are some rising stars, but whether they will be industrious enough to trouble the veterans still remains to be seen.

 

[Moxie]

That is true. Remember we are in the realm of speculation. Yes, there are some rising stars, but whether they will be industrious enough to trouble the veterans still remains to be seen.

I believe my whole point above is that we are in the realm of speculation...and have been often proven to be wrong. We shall see. But it does make me laugh when folks act like the now is forever. Or even for the next 3 years. Or 2. Or 1. Even Fed fans were writing Roger off, and as Nadal fan, I'd basically hoped for 1 more after 2014. But that doesn't mean everything doesn't change again in the next year. Even though they are both amazing and continue to astonish us and defy expectations.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

One of the young stars who's risen quickly at the age of 19 and now is fading as quickly at 20, is Alex Zverev. It could be that Alex's fall is due to lack of variety in his game. Opponents have finally deciphered his shot-making and his weaknesses so can easily find winning strategy against him and he has no response. Even if no one tells you the details of this process, it is going on for every player at the spotlight and it is almost sub-conscious within ATP.
That's why, in order to stay on top you have to have a good variety of shots and you need to mix them well. Roger does it the best, nothing more to add. I feel like this younger generation that grew accustomed to power baseline play only, is lacking a bit variety in their game.

 

[atttomole]

We agree on that Moxie. If Roger were to win another 5, he would be untouchable, even for Rafa. But do not worry Moxie, that is unlikely to happen. It is wishful thinking on my part.

 

[El Dude]

Writing Zverev off is an example of what Moxie is talking about. As you pointed out, the kid is not yet 20...maybe he is taking a step back and then will jump forward later this year or next? Of course the Berdych Path is also possible, but lets give him the benefit of the doubt.


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[Moxie]

We agree on that Moxie. If Roger were to win another 5, he would be untouchable, even for Rafa. But do not worry Moxie, that is unlikely to happen. It is wishful thinking on my part.

In many ways, Roger is already untouchable. At least for the forseeable future. As a Nadal fan, I'd like Rafa to get within touching distance, because I honestly believe that they are co-GOATs of this era.

 

[Moxie]

Writing Zverev off is an example of what Moxie is talking about. As you pointed out, the kid is not yet 20...maybe he is taking a step back and then will jump forward later this year or next? Of course the Berdych Path is also possible, but lets give him the benefit of the doubt.
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Well, Zverev is 20, but you are getting my point. A few less than stellar months as a youngster, and folks start to write him off. We are all anxious for the next Roger or Rafa. Let's face it...that's not coming around the corner. But they're not all the duds of Dimitrov or, say, Nishikori, yet. (If such success can be graded so steeply.) There are a lot of promising guys on the rise, and while they certainly won't all be multiple Slam winners, they can threaten the Old Guard sooner than we think, and some will break out, I reckon.

 

[El Dude]

In many ways, Roger is already untouchable. At least for the forseeable future. As a Nadal fan, I'd like Rafa to get within touching distance, because I honestly believe that they are co-GOATs of this era.

I can almost agree with this while also saying that Roger has a greater career record so is historically greater.

They may seem opposed but I think are both true.


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[Moxie]

I can almost agree with this while also saying that Roger has a greater career record so is historically greater.

They may seem opposed but I think are both true.
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It's complicated, right? I've already said that Roger is untouchable, in many ways. But comparing the two gets murky. I know there are folks here that wish I'd stop conflating their careers. But I didn't invent it. They are not only one of tennis's great rivalries, they been compared to Yankees/Red Sox, etc. They are the heavy-weights of men's tennis, and everyone else is a light-middle weight, including Djokovic. When they play each other, like Ali/Fraser, the world stops and watches. This won't happen again for a long time. IMO.

Sidebar: When Venus and Serena played each other the other day, someone on tennis.com asked why we should care so much about a 3rd round match. It's because it was 2 greats going at each other, and it was also going to be increasingly rare. Tennis will be missing the box-office when all of those 4 quit.

 

[El Dude]

I think you’re a little too down on Novak, who deserves to be in the trio. He’s fallen a bit behind but is still much closer to them than he is to the rest of the pack.


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[Moxie]

I think you’re a little too down on Novak, who deserves to be in the trio. He’s fallen a bit behind but is still much closer to them than he is to the rest of the pack.


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I'm not denigrating his abilities, only his star-power. He's always been the Third Man. (I think that was the title of a NYer article about him.) And Roger and Rafa did push rudely even farther past him last year. I'm not talking about the all-time list, but this era. I think this is the Fedal era, and he's never going to insert himself into that particular conversation beyond where he is. Which is the third man.

 

[El Dude]

I'm not denigrating his abilities, only his star-power. He's always been the Third Man. (I think that was the title of a NYer article about him.) And Roger and Rafa did push rudely even farther past him last year. I'm not talking about the all-time list, but this era. I think this is the Fedal era, and he's never going to insert himself into that particular conversation beyond where he is. Which is the third man.

I don't disagree with this, just saying that the gap between 2 and 3 is much smaller than 3 and 4. But aside from ability, he definitely doesn't have the sex appeal (aka star-power) of Federer or Nadal.

 

[DarthFed]

I don't think motivation is a problem, up and until Mirka and the kids stop traveling with him. He could have become complacent a long time ago. I think he'll play to his physical abilities, and his family requirements.

It isn't a problem now but it could be at any time given what he's accomplished. And of course eventually he will feel enough is enough and retire even if he is healthy.

 

[Obsi]

They are the heavy-weights of men's tennis, and everyone else is a light-middle weight, including Djokovic.

Djokovic is a heavy weight

 

[mrzz]

I am on the side that Djokovic inserted himself on that story... but now he has a new Fedal trick to learn and repeat, which is the comeback act. Let's see.

 

[Federberg]

I am on the side that Djokovic inserted himself on that story... but now he has a new Fedal trick to learn and repeat, which is the comeback act. Let's see.

I think you're missing Moxie's point mate. She thinks the Federer-Nadal rivalry transcends the sport, and it's pointless trying to insert Djokovic into the debate. From a tennis perspective his achievements are on a par or at least approaching the other two, but he has not transcended the sport in quite the way Fedal have. Her point is not about ability or achievement, it's about star power and legend

 

[mrzz]

I think you're missing Moxie's point mate. She thinks the Federer-Nadal rivalry transcends the sport, and it's pointless trying to insert Djokovic into the debate. From a tennis perspective his achievements are on a par or at least approaching the other two, but he has not transcended the sport in quite the way Fedal have. Her point is not about ability or achievement, it's about star power and legend

I am not missing it. I disagree with it. While in one hand I agree that Fedal are more known outside the tennis world -- the "star power" which I deliberately ignore -- on the other I am sure that inside the tennis world (which is was actually makes it spin) Djokovic is right up there (or was, as my post above points out).

About the "star power", I guess that the general audience is unable to follow the dramas underlying Djokovic's part in this "movie". The move from "third man" to absolute first requires more than mere ability, and it is quite a story in itself. But, the same way an empty block-buster will fill the theaters much more than anything else, people only have eyes for Fedal. As much as I admire and laud both, the real drama for me has three elements, and it is much more fun like that. Actually this is the main reason I root for a Djokovic comeback.

 

[Federberg]

I am not missing it. I disagree with it. While in one hand I agree that Fedal are more known outside the tennis world -- the "star power" which I deliberately ignore -- on the other I am sure that inside the tennis world (which is was actually makes it spin) Djokovic is right up there (or was, as my post above points out).

About the "star power", I guess that the general audience is unable to follow the dramas underlying Djokovic's part in this "movie". The move from "third man" to absolute first requires more than mere ability, and it is quite a story in itself. But, the same way an empty block-buster will fill the theaters much more than anything else, people only have eyes for Fedal. As much as I admire and laud both, the real drama for me has three elements, and it is much more fun like that. Actually this is the main reason I root for a Djokovic comeback.

lol! Well it sounds to me like you do agree that in terms of star power Djokovic doesn't match up to the Fedal rivalry. As a tennis fan, I agree the insertion of Djokovic makes the tennis side more interesting. However I won't presume to tell the average joe they're wrong. It is what it is, whether you choose to ignore it or not

 

[Obsi]

Federer has more star power than Nadal. Does it mean Nadal isn’t a heavy weight in terms of star power? No, it doesn’t.

If Federer and Nadal have more star power than Djokovic, it doesn’t mean Novak isn’t a heavy weight in terms of star power.

 

[atttomole]

One of the reasons why Djokovic may have less star power is how the careers of the three have panned out. Federer and Nadal dominated when Djokovic was still learning how to play the game, and he was still dealing with health issues. During that time, Federer and Nadal played so many matches (mostly on clay courts) when Federer was number 1 and Nadal was chasing him. Further, the two were monopolizing slams, creating a great rivalry. That dominance made for a great story, with the notoriety of both players soaring. Djokovic came later to the show, which made it difficult for him to reach the popularity of the other two. I guess if Nadal and Djokovic had dominated earlier, Federer would have struggled to find space in the popularity contest. It is also about timing.