Strange stat re Rafa and AO

[Tennis Miller]

In three of the last four AOs that he's played in (excluding 2013 where he didn't even enter due to injury), Rafa has gotten injured mid match. In each case he was already trailing in the match, iIs there something about the surface? 3 out of 4 times?

Cheers

TM

 

[Front242]

The weather was crazy hot in Melbourne last week and much cooler this week. Maybe he didn't sufficiently warm up before hand. Not sure about hurting himself in his warm up though as he looked 100% ok in the first set and up to 2-0 and was doing his usual jumping up in the air, sprinting at the baseline, etc. Then I was thinking maybe he hadn't played enough tennis at the start of each year and overdid it but he's just played and won Doha. It's anyone's guess really.

 

[Kieran]

I think in the Ferrer match, they'd only started. It was the third game, so if he was "trailing" it was insignificant in that they had both held serves. The Murray one, he was way out of it, in his slump still and hadn't beaten a top 10 player since before Roland Garros and was on his way out anyway.

Then today's match, which was up in the air.

So I don't see a connection, because against Ferrer it was hamstring, with Murray it was still his knees and today it was the back. It might be the surface, but they're different injuries each time. Hard to know. I'm still trying to figure out today, without being able to make a connection with those other times. Oz hasn't been a lucky ground for Rafa, even though he's won there before...

 

[brokenshoelace]

I've no idea. It's weird because it's the start of the season too. I'll add one more, which didn't happen mid match but still: Remember in 2012, when Nadal showed up for his first match with a bandage on his knee and everyone asked him what happened? He said he was sitting in his hotel room and suddenly felt a lot of pain... It didn't stop him for reaching the final and certainly didn't affect his play, but still. He's also missed the tournament twice (2006 and last year) though that's not an injury sustained in Australia. Regardless, it seems to be the cursed slam for him, despite winning it and making 2 other finals.

 

[Moxie]

Yeah, "mid-match" is a stretch in this case, and in the Ferrer one. That (which I thought was groin, but anyway,) was in one of the first 3 games. And today, down 0-2 in the 2nd of a potential 5 setter was still far from over. It's a lot of bad luck. (Oh, and let's not forget the blister.)

 

[Tennis Miller]

I think in the Ferrer match, they'd only started. It was the third game, so if he was "trailing" it was insignificant in that they had both held serves. The Murray one, he was way out of it, in his slump still and hadn't beaten a top 10 player since before Roland Garros and was on his way out anyway.

Then today's match, which was up in the air.

So I don't see a connection, because against Ferrer it was hamstring, with Murray it was still his knees and today it was the back. It might be the surface, but they're different injuries each time. Hard to know. I'm still trying to figure out today, without being able to make a connection with those other times. Oz hasn't been a lucky ground for Rafa, even though he's won there before...

Sorry, you're right. It was the very first game against Ferrer. Still, in that case, there was huge pressure, as he was trying to win his fourth major in a row ...the Rafa slam. Maybe he just gets tight sometimes and tries almost too hard.

Cheers
TM

 

[Front242]

Yup. That's probably it. You try and lift too heavy in the gym and like that, it's when you try too hard and overexert yourself you pop something. Stan's serving in set 1 may have been poor but his ground game was on fire and Rafa probably overstretched trying to retrieve a sharply angled shot or something like that. I don't buy the hurt it during warm up personally as he looked 100% fine at the start of the match. Imagine stretching for a ball in that 2nd set did it.

 

[Kieran]

I think in the Ferrer match, they'd only started. It was the third game, so if he was "trailing" it was insignificant in that they had both held serves. The Murray one, he was way out of it, in his slump still and hadn't beaten a top 10 player since before Roland Garros and was on his way out anyway.

Then today's match, which was up in the air.

So I don't see a connection, because against Ferrer it was hamstring, with Murray it was still his knees and today it was the back. It might be the surface, but they're different injuries each time. Hard to know. I'm still trying to figure out today, without being able to make a connection with those other times. Oz hasn't been a lucky ground for Rafa, even though he's won there before...

Sorry, you're right. It was the very first game against Ferrer. Still, in that case, there was huge pressure, as he was trying to win his fourth major in a row ...the Rafa slam. Maybe he just gets tight sometimes and tries almost too hard.

Cheers
TM

You could be right, but I don't know. I think in 2011, he had a massive fever before the Australian Open and he may not have been hydrated enough when facing Ferrer, or fully recuperated from the fever. I thought it was a hamstring but Moxie might be right on the nature of the injury.

As for him being injured in the warm-up today, he wasn't so aggressive in the first game, let alone the first set, but it's difficult to tell. If he says he felt it in the warm-up, then it happened in the warm-up. He also says it didn't get too bad until the second set, when we all witnessed it...

 

[Moxie]

^Kieran, I only knew the Spanish word that Rafa used for it, "isquio," and I thought it was groin, but I looked it up and it is the hamstring. Minor detail. Anyway, that one could have been starting out with so much running from the get-go, as you can imagine between the two of them. Rafa usually comes in very warmed up, so it's surprising, but, as you suggest, TM, it might have been nerves that tightened him, as it could have been last night. In 2010 v. Murray, he said he felt something painful, but a new pain he didn't recognize in the knee, and he was scared about it, as he is understandably protective of his knees. He wasn't going to win that match, and he had a free pass owing from Murray, (having stayed in their 2009 Rotterdam final when he couldn't move in the 3rd due to his knees,) so retiring seemed the wiser course.

Some folks were pretty rude last night about Rafa and the MTO, and his injuries as a form of excuse, in general. (That's not pointed at you, TM, or this thread.) Nadal practices and plays very hard, which both makes him the player he is, and makes his body break down, sometimes. People who aren't looking for reasons to dislike him further would see that he's too competitive to quit or back away from a challenge.

Also, I was arguing even with my fellow Rafa fans a bit, and I don't think I made my point very clear. I absolutely recognize that Nadal was hurt, and compromised, which I believe every one can see is a fact. What I didn't want to do was engage in conjecture, i.e., that Rafa would have won the match if he hadn't hurt his back. Not saying that others were, and I was probably being bossy about it. Stan had an effective game plan, and he executed it. Two things can be true at the same time: that a player is compromised, and that the other is out-playing him.

 

[tennisville]

I will go even further , all 3 of those matches happenned on australia day , so it may be something to do with patriotism

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I am no psychologist or a psychiatrist, but there might be something to be said about Nadal's mental state in those matches mentioned above. Against Ferrer, there was a lot at stake. Today, ditto...we all know the mental strength of Rafa. He is a rock. He has won tons of matches because he was the mentally fitter guy out there (that is , in addition to his tennis...nobody wins by just thinking about it)
But it is also a common knowledge that mental stress can manifest itself in physical ways. I start getting tight a week before I am supposed to fly somewhere (by the way , I am not afraid of flying, it is crashing that scares the s$%& out of me). When I am upset, my stomach hurts.
What I am saying is that it is not too much of a stretch to think these injuries might be because of extreme pressure he puts on himself when stakes are this high. Something like back tightness is almost textbook stress reaction. Again, I am no expert, but I have had back pain most my adult life and I know the triggers very well. Hint, it never happens when I am relaxing on a beach in Jamaica.

 

[Moxie]

Great post, Murat. I think you're onto it. (Question: How to you resolve the stress of flying with the resultant relief by being on a beach in Jamaica? And is it undone when you fly home? :laydownlaughing: )

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Great post, Murat. I think you're onto it. (Question: How to you resolve the stress of flying with the resultant relief by being on a beach in Jamaica? And is it undone when you fly home? :laydownlaughing: )

It is all very complicated and stressful...I am working on it...:blush:

 

[Rose]

I am no psychologist or a psychiatrist, but there might be something to be said about Nadal's mental state in those matches mentioned above. Against Ferrer, there was a lot at stake. Today, ditto...we all know the mental strength of Rafa. He is a rock. He has won tons of matches because he was the mentally fitter guy out there (that is , in addition to his tennis...nobody wins by just thinking about it)
But it is also a common knowledge that mental stress can manifest itself in physical ways. I start getting tight a week before I am supposed to fly somewhere (by the way , I am not afraid of flying, it is crashing that scares the s$%& out of me). When I am upset, my stomach hurts.
What I am saying is that it is not too much of a stretch to think these injuries might be because of extreme pressure he puts on himself when stakes are this high. Something like back tightness is almost textbook stress reaction. Again, I am no expert, but I have had back pain most my adult life and I know the triggers very well. Hint, it never happens when I am relaxing on a beach in Jamaica.

Great post And also the comment has been made that Rafa is jinxed at the AO and there are many sports players who are very superstitious whether they admit to it or not. So it becomes like Rafa is just waiting for something bad to happen to him and sadly it does!

 

[Tennis Miller]

Building on what Murat and Genie said, here's an ironic twist on it (possibly). A lot of us here feel that Nadal puts so much psychological pressure on Roger that it makes Roger tight and play worse.( Not just Roger, but especially Roger)

There was so much on the line yesterday :

The double career slam, tying Pete at 14, being the first ever to win at least one slam 10 years in a row. Add to that the pressure of being the prohibitive favorite. (How many people on this board either said or tacitly agreed with a comment like , "Let's be honest, the Rafa-Roger semi is basically the final."?) Come on, raise your hands.

Then, recall that just before the injury visibly occurred, he was down a set and a break to a man whom he was supposed to thrash and who'd never taken a set off him). Not only was he being surprisingly and thoroughly outplayed, but he'd just received a code violation for doing what he always does in when it gets tough .. that is, slowing down. In fact, he'd just been very uncharacteristically jawing and complaining with the umpire. He was probably a bit worried that the tightness he'd felt slightly in warmup could get worse, adding to his history of AO bad luck. (Is there anyone here who thinks Rafa's NOT just a wee bit superstitious?) And the blister, don't forget the blister.

Under all this, perhaps the Master of Applying Pressure put so much Rafa-type pressure on himself that he literally tightened himself up to the point that something seized up?



Cheers
TM

 

[Kieran]

Could be, TM, but he's showed himself capable of handling extreme pressure, so while it could be a factor, I really don't think we can be sure. Let's not disregard the fact that he said he felt it in the warm-up, which might or might not support your theory, but it helps explain why he was less aggressive on the many second serves he was offered.

I think winding himself up so much might have contributed, though, but also, I complained at the time about it: why didn't he just take a break after the WTF? He'd had a great year, but then he went to South America on a money racket exo tour with Novak - who similarly came up short in Oz. Rafa more than anyone knows he should look after his body.

Regarding the exos, Roger played them in 2012 and skipped them this time and he mentioned that as being a factor in why he was physically in better shape coming to Oz this year, than last. I know, exos are fun, but really, they're a bus mans holiday.

Give it a break, because it annoys me when he then complains about a crowded schedule...

 

[Tennis Miller]

Could be, TM, but he's showed himself capable of handling extreme pressure, so while it could be a factor, I really don't think we can be sure. Let's not disregard the fact that he said he felt it in the warm-up, which might or might not support your theory, but it helps explain why he was less aggressive on the many second serves he was offered.

I think winding himself up so much might have contributed, though, but also, I complained at the time about it: why didn't he just take a break after the WTF? He'd had a great year, but then he went to South America on a money racket exo tour with Novak - who similarly came up short in Oz. Rafa more than anyone knows he should look after his body.

Regarding the exos, Roger played them in 2012 and skipped them this time and he mentioned that as being a factor in why he was physically in better shape coming to Oz this year, than last. I know, exos are fun, but really, they're a bus mans holiday.

Give it a break, because it annoys me when he then complains about a crowded schedule...

I agree, those end of the year exos are ridiculous. Especially for Rafa for god's sake, with all that was on the line for the AO.

Another example: I'm sure if Federer had to do it all again, he'd probably rest instead of doing that Asian swing with Sampras at end of 2007, seeing as how well 2008 turned out for him results- and health-wise. I'm sure at the time, when he was on top of the tennis world, winning 3/4 slams, and finalist at RG, then winning the YEC, it seemed OK. A bit of hubris, I suspect, but he messed with his winning formula and I have no doubt it cost him.

But again, Rafa? with his history at the AO, what was he thinking ?

Cheers

TM

 

[Kieran]

Seriously, if they're philanthropically promoting tennis for the good of the sport in the nether spots of nowhere, I understand this, and it's in the ATP's interest to support them, but really they're just adding coin upon coin. Something has to give eventually... :nono

 

[brokenshoelace]

I think the injury was just a $hit happens moment. There doesn't have to be a specific reason as to why it occurred, although it's possible.

 

[Tennis Miller]

Seriously, if they're philanthropically promoting tennis for the good of the sport in the nether spots of nowhere, I understand this, and it's in the ATP's interest to support them, but really they're just adding coin upon coin. Something has to give eventually... :nono

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH "philanthropically promoting tennis for the good of the sport..."

What delicious sarcasm. Sometimes your turns of phrase are just magnificent. I should "like" them more often..

Cheers

TM