Only injuries will end Federer, Nadal and Djokovic's dominance

[luvsports!]

Are the Next Gen finally going to break through, or will they need a bit of luck?
My piece for The Roar here: https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/01/10/only-injuries-will-end-federer-nadal-and-djokovics-dominance/

THoughts?

 

[britbox]

Has to come eventually! Some of the Nextgen players are beginning to mature. Tsipitas and Zverev probably a little ahead of the others (that has the making of promising rivalry too).

 

[Moxie]

I thought the assessment was good of the NextGenners. I don't think it's their fault that they have 3 All-Time Greats in front of them who are refusing to give over the mantle. Who knows who they'll eventually be, but they are not yet Roger, Rafa or Nole.

 

[Moxie]

Has to come eventually! Some of the Nextgen players are beginning to mature. Tsipitas and Zverev probably a little ahead of the others (that has the making of promising rivalry too).

What is the skinny on their not being that friendly? They would seem to have much in common, but perhaps too much. I do like the potential of that as a rivalry.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

All of them are incredible tennis champions who have stood the test of time but only Rafa has also managed to keep his beautiful sexy looks.

 

[El Dude]

You're too much, @Nadalfan2013 .

As for the article, none of the Next Gen are likely to be as dominant as Fedalkovic, but that doesn't mean they won't eventually steal away the crown. At some point it is inevitable. But it really is a gradual process, starting with a drip, then a stream, then a flow. Shifts in dominance are sometimes sudden ("floodwaters"), sometimes more gradual. This seems more gradual.

You can see this as more and more players of younger generations start filling out the top 20. Fully 12 players (60%) of the YE top 20 were born in 1989 or later; this up from 7 in both 2016 and 2017 (35%), 6 in 2015 (30%), 3 in 2014 (15%), two in 2013 (10%) and just one in 2012 (5%). Now of course of those 12 of 20 in 2018, only 1 (Zverev) was in the top 5 and two more (Thiem and Nishikori) in the top 10, but that will change.

But by "dominance" I take it you mostly mean Slams. But again, things change gradually and from below. Whether that dominance will be broken in 2019 is unknown. In 2017 you had the first players born in the 90s win big titles - Zverev (b. 1997), but also Sock (1992) and Dimitrov (1991). In 2018 Zverev won two more, and Khachanov (b. 1996) was added to the mix. This year I suspect, at the very least, we'll see more new Masters winners, the main candidates being Kyrgios, Coric, Medvedev, and Tsitsipas, in my opinion. Maybe Nishikori finally wins won (I hope - otherwise he'll go down as the best player of the Open Era never to win a big title).

But Slams? That will be harder, but I could see one of Wimbledon or US Open going to a younger player. We shall see. By 2020 the flood-gates will be fully open.

 

[El Dude]

Here's a section of a chart I keep of the top 100 players, color-coded by generation. Sort of a fun project. I've included the top 31, because I wanted to get Shapo and de Minaur in there - as you can see, they sneak into 2018. So if you go by five years, they're actually "NextNextGen."

Anyhow, while the years are somewhat arbitrary, the colors at least give a sense of how things are changing, especially over the last two years.

 

[Moxie]

All of them are incredible tennis champions who have stood the test of time but only Rafa has also managed to keep his beautiful sexy looks.

You totally went for it. #respect

 

[GameSetAndMath]

All of them are incredible tennis champions who have stood the test of time but only Rafa has also managed to keep his beautiful sexy looks.

What is up with the so called "male alpha dog", not having any chest hair? Is he ……?

 

[Moxie]

What is up with the so called "male alpha dog", not having any chest hair? Is he ……?

...waiting for it. What? Not rug-covered nastiness? The ladies have an opinion here.

 

[luvsports!]

Thread getting hi-jacked for bod photos XD

 

[mrzz]

Good written article, and I surely respect the opinion, but my view is the complete opposite. As I stated before, I really think that the distance between those 3 and the rest, in terms of pure level, has dropped immensely. The only thing that still keeps them above the field is that they "know" how to win (imo). But I am pretty sure that 2019 will have different major winers, with or without injuries.

 

[luvsports!]

Thanks Mrzz.
Good to have some debate!
Who do you think will make the jump from the Next Gen?

 

[mrzz]

Thanks Mrzz.
Good to have some debate!
Who do you think will make the jump from the Next Gen?

I do not put that much stock in the next gen for this year. I think guys like Cilic, Anderson, del Potro (if healthy) and Wawrinka are in a better position to go the distance, maybe somebody else (for example, lost gen stalwarts Raonic, Nishikori and Dimitrov(!)), or some older player like Fognini (just an example) finally steps up (like Anderson did in the last two years). Oh, and of course Thiem for RG.

In other words, I do not have a name in particular, but as I said I just don't feel that the big three are that untouchable any longer. You need to be head and shoulders above the field to dominate the way they used to. Right now, level wise, I think they are just a nose ahead, and with a smaller margin they are bound to lose more often, given also their age.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

Remember that all big3 went the distance (i.e. won their first GS) at the ages of 18-21, so Milan-age by today's measure. So, with the exception of few youngest ones (Tsi Shapo Minaur Rublev) all next gen players we are talking about are already pushed away: denied the opportunity to copy their heroes achievements.
Zverev (turning 22 in 3 months) is already falling into that cetegory: it loks like he's been a top player forever but still without ultimate success. And he's still a shadow in light of Fed shine, as their match at HC revealed.
But I tend to agree with mrzz. Sudden injury was only in Murray's case so far (out of big4). But it's usually a slow decline which precedes any tennis player's retirement (more than 90% cases I say) and the likelihood should be the same in big3 careers case.