New #1 after the Big 4 era

[mightyjeditribble]

The last person other than Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray to hold the world #1 ranking was Andy Roddick, whom Federer supplanted on February 2, 2004.

The next person to hold that honour - that is, the next new world #1 - is almost surely playing on the tour right now. Who do you think it will be?

It should be fun to collect predictions, see which names get mentioned most frequently, and possibly to refer back when the day comes ...

I haven't added names in the poll (I don't want to be prescriptive, and the thread is for that), but instead asked the question of when this will happen, on which I will also be interested to see opinions!

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Let me make a start. I suppose that I will go with Sascha Zverev.

It seems possible that one of the older, and more mature, players, will benefit before Zverev is ready for this, but I'm finding it hard to pick someone. Certainly not Stan, who is older than most of the Big 4.

Raonic was making moves last year, and although I never thought he was a top talent, he was showing that he can maximise what he has. He could still put together a really good year on fast courts, but I can't see the Big 4 dropping out to the point where he can get ahead of them in the ranking for a while at least, and by then he won't be a spring chicken himself anymore.

Cilic? Nishikori? They don't seem likely candidates. Thiem is the only other one who is really making a move, but there are some signs that Zverev could overtake him before the Big 4 relinquish their grip on the top spot.

 

[britbox]

I'll go with Zverev also. Lot more to come from Sascha and he's getting better all the time.

 

[Moxie]

I hate to bandwagon, but Zverev is my pick, too. And I went with 2019. That'd put him at about 22, which was the age Roger and Rafa got to #1. And around then, I suspect there might be some trading of time at #1 for a while, as the Big 4 fade. Something like post-Pete and pre-Roger when winning a Slam got you a few weeks at #1, anyway. I don't see Stan ever taking a turn, and I'm sorry if this is mean, but Raonic seemed like a bit of a placeholder in the top half of the Top 10. Which is one reason I see Kyrgios getting to #1 at some point. How long that might last will depend on him, but I'd love to see a Zverev-Kyrgios rivalry, with Thiem in the mix. (And Frances Tiafoe!)

 

[mrzz]

del Potro

 

[mightyjeditribble]

del Potro

Oh, I'd love it if this happened! But he's already 28, and I'm afraid his injury troubles won't get better with age.

 

[britbox]

I hate to bandwagon, but Zverev is my pick, too. And I went with 2019. That'd put him at about 22, which was the age Roger and Rafa got to #1. And around then, I suspect there might be some trading of time at #1 for a while, as the Big 4 fade. Something like post-Pete and pre-Roger when winning a Slam got you a few weeks at #1, anyway. I don't see Stan ever taking a turn, and I'm sorry if this is mean, but Raonic seemed like a bit of a placeholder in the top half of the Top 10. Which is one reason I see Kyrgios getting to #1 at some point. How long that might last will depend on him, but I'd love to see a Zverev-Kyrgios rivalry, with Thiem in the mix. (And Frances Tiafoe!)

I'm thinking 2019 too for Zverev... and agree that Kyrgios and Thiem look like joining him to form the trio of new blood heading the tour. One or two others might gatecrash the party.

 

[Ricardo]

Kyrgios is too much of an unknown, as it totally depends on him to develop the right attitude.....raw talent and good game alone are not enough to get the top spot. Zverev is the easy choice; great talent, strong commitment and good game he's already got, there doesn't seem to be anything missing in his repertoire to conquer the top ranking. Thiem is very impressive too, but his game is a lot less reliable than Zverev's so big question mark.

 

[britbox]

Kyrgios is too much of an unknown, as it totally depends on him to develop the right attitude.....raw talent and good game alone are not enough to get the top spot. Zverev is the easy choice; great talent, strong commitment and good game he's already got, there doesn't seem to be anything missing in his repertoire to conquer the top ranking. Thiem is very impressive too, but his game is a lot less reliable than Zverev's so big question mark.

I'm thinking Kyrgios might be a Safin type character - capable of beating anyone on his day, flirt with the top slot occasionally and win majors when it all clicks for him. Agree that his attitude will probably hold back from being a dominant figure over an extended period.

 

[El Dude]

Zverev in 2019 seems like the safest choice. That said, depending upon how Thiem does for the rest of this year, I could see a pathway where he kills it next clay season and reaches #1 sometime in May or June of 2018. 2018-20 could be similar to the late 90s, with many players being #1 for short stints.