[Jonathan Northrop] Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

[El Dude]

Here's a blog entry for discussion.

 

[Moxie]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

Good blog post, Dude. It is interesting how consistently upward Murray's trajectory has been. Also the Djokovic spike in 2011, which has leveled off, but at a higher plane than he was prior to 2011, which is the way most would describe it.

 

[twilazon]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

Wonderful post. It appears that perhaps Delpo was too anxious to join the big boys, as opposed to Murray and his little engine routine. Of course, what you can't quite see is how the maroon and violet lines steeply rise just to the right of your graph...

 

[tented]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

Good blog post, Dude.

I agree. We're very lucky to have someone who takes the time to analyze tennis in such an intricate manner.

It is interesting how consistently upward Murray's trajectory has been.

This is what stood out to me, too. As much talk as there's been about the dominance of Federer and Nadal (and understandably so), and now Djokovic over the past couple of years, combined with the whispers of whether or not Murray is actually a part of the Big 4, it's ironic to see in your visual representation that it has, in fact, been Murray who has been quietly, steadily progressing upwards. He has been the tortoise among the hares over the past few years.

 

[tented]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

Wonderful post. It appears that perhaps Delpo was too anxious to join the big boys ...

I wouldn't say he was too anxious. He got injured, and didn't play for ages, which explains the 2010 results. Since then, he has been slowly coming back, but, yes, it has been very, very slowly -- especially in comparison to his meteoric trajectory from 2006-2009.

I'm hoping what he displayed at Wimbledon was just a preview of coming attractions, and we'll see the feature in a few months in New York.

 

[twilazon]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

Federer and Nadal show the fastest rise (4.3/4.2) in a 2-year period ('02-'04/'04-'06) of the six. Djokovic and Del Potro were on similarly parallel paths, with the exception of the mirrored entanglement of Del Potro's and Nadal's declines (?).

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Wonderful post. It appears that perhaps Delpo was too anxious to join the big boys ...

I wouldn't say he was too anxious. He got injured, and didn't play for ages, which explains the 2010 results. Since then, he has been slowly coming back, but, yes, it has been very, very slowly -- especially in comparison to his meteoric trajectory from 2006-2009.

I'm hoping what he displayed at Wimbledon was just a preview of coming attractions, and we'll see the feature in a few months in New York.

Maybe he tried too hard and that's why he got injured. Nonetheless as a fedal fan, I consider him to be extremely dangerous - especially after seeing that graph.

 

[Mog]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

Excellent blog post El Dude.
Great idea to compare the performance of top 4/6 players at slams.
We are lucky to have you here who takes such time to produce such stats.

Murray steady trajectory is very impressive.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

Thanks for the kind comments, folks. You know I'm not an accountant or mathematician or anything, I'm just fascinated by how numbers represent sports performance. My first love is actually baseball - which is the premier sport for stat nerds! - but I've liked, then loved tennis as my second favorite, and now they're neck and neck. I've never played in any formal way (although greatly enjoyed it when I did), and don't feel like I know the ins and outs of the on-court game half as much as most here, but I try to make up for it with the numbers to give a counter-point to discussions. I will continue to do so.

I'll also update this chart after the US Open so we can get a better sense of trajectories.

Wonderful post. It appears that perhaps Delpo was too anxious to join the big boys, as opposed to Murray and his little engine routine. Of course, what you can't quite see is how the maroon and violet lines steeply rise just to the right of your graph...

I hope so, but let's be a bit realistic! But even if they only make it to the QF at the US Open, their average for the year will go up slightly so the decline won't be as steep. I imagine that Rafa will have a better overall year next year. Hopefully Roger as well, but I think it unlikely that either go back to a 6+ season again. Roger hasn't done it since 2009 and Rafa only twice (2008, 2010). I'd call a 6+ season a truly dominant year, where a 5+ is a top 5 caliber elite year, and a 4+ a very good, top 10 caliber year.

This is what stood out to me, too. As much talk as there's been about the dominance of Federer and Nadal (and understandably so), and now Djokovic over the past couple of years, combined with the whispers of whether or not Murray is actually a part of the Big 4, it's ironic to see in your visual representation that it has, in fact, been Murray who has been quietly, steadily progressing upwards. He has been the tortoise among the hares over the past few years.

Yes, true, although its important to remember that his 6.5 average this year is a bit deceptive because he missed Roland Garros, which is traditionally his worst Slam - he's never gotten past the SF, and then only once. If we assume that he would have gone out in the SF his average would be 6, which is still quite excellent.

Also, unless he wins the US Open again that 6.5 will go down. If he wins it it goes up to 6.7; if he is the runner up he's at 6.3, SF he's at 6, QF he's at 5.7. Less than that and his average for the year goes down below last year's, but I think that's unlikely.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

about Murray's trajectory: funnily, i would have thought that this is somewhat skewed by him skipping RG. in regards to his current top position on the graph, it is, of course - with anything less than a Final at RG, he'd be tied with Novak (obviously). however, the trajectory still would've been upwards from 2012 if he'd only made the quarters (and even with a 4R exit, he could have redeemed himself at the USO). so yes, it's been nowhere but up for Murray in that regard.

then again, if you haven't had a year like Novak had and spent most of your career trailing the others, it's somewhat easier to keep an upwards trajectory.

 

[tented]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

Even though you state in the first paragraph "With apologies to Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, I’ve included David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro to flesh it out a bit with a couple from the next tier of players," would you consider either adding them now, or taking out Ferrer and JMDP, and inserting Berdych & Tsonga?

I've been thinking about how even though Berdych and Tsonga aren't winning Majors, they're affecting the results of the top guys: Berdych beating Roger at Wimbledon & the USO, Tsonga beating Roger at Wimbledon and RG, Tsonga beating Rafa in Australia, Berdych beating Djokovic at Wimbledon, and whatever else I'm forgetting (I think Tsonga beat Murray in AO?).

I wouldn't call them dark horses; at least not right now, but perhaps in the future. They're spoilers, really, but it could be interesting to throw them into the mix.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

I considered putting them in, tented, but mainly didn't due to the fact that the chart would get too messy. I might do something similar with second tier players - looking at Ferrer, Del Potro, Tsonga, Berdych, Gasquet, and going further back Soderling, Davydenko, Nalbandian, Roddick, etc.

 

[tented]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

I considered putting them in, tented, but mainly didn't due to the fact that the chart would get too messy. I might do something similar with second tier players - looking at Ferrer, Del Potro, Tsonga, Berdych, Gasquet, and going further back Soderling, Davydenko, Nalbandian, Roddick, etc.

That would be interesting, too.

I forgot to mention in my previous post that what the guys you've already used, plus Tsonga and Berdych, have in common is they've all been in a GS final. (This now even includes Ferrer.) So when I was thinking about adding them, I was thinking in terms of tracking the players who have at least made it to a GS final.

 

[Kieran]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

I think there's a few laws of nature at play here. Young players continue to improve whereas others spike, stall and decline. The likes of Ferrer can gain some ground, but that's not an indication of much, other than that a guy like him has maxed on his potential. But what can we really tell from this? Murray improved seven years running - but he improved from where? And he hasn't reached the top yet. Novak shot through the ceiling in 2011 - a far higher reach than Murray - so it's natural that he'd stall and fall back a little.

I love your stats, El Dude, and I hope you post more because you're go-to when it comes to figures. On this one, it's interesting to note a convergance around 2010-2012. The obvious conclusion is this: there's only so much food on the table and if more bodies turn up hungry to feed, then the ones who were high on the hog have to eat a lot less...

 

[El Dude]

RE: Visual Depiction of Changing Elite Dominance

That's a good point, Kieran, and why--for example--a season like Mats Wilander's 1988 is so impressive. He won 3 Grand Slams when the top five was rounded out by a prime Ivan Lendl, a very young Andre Agassi, a prime Boris Becker, and prime Stefan Edberg - not to mention a still dangerous Jimmy Connors at #7 and John McEnroe at #11. That's a lot of talent vying for Grand Slams and Wilander took all but one. Novak's 2011 was, while not quite as impressive in my opinion, somewhat similar.

2012 was a great year because you had four players win Slams, and all four were playing excellent tennis (that is until Rafa at Wimbledon).