Chess

[Federberg]

Wow! This has been a ratings disaster for the top guys. Magnus looks like he's come out of it with a relative gain

 

[DarthFed]

Yeah there have been tons of upsets. I'm not even sure who is left, the big fish are MVL and So I think.

I love Ivanchuk'a play when he is on. That guy would be Cali's favorite player, he is the chess version of Nalbandian. Great talent, a danger to the best when he's on top of his game but way too inconsistent. He took out Kramnik and beat Giri to start the mini match.

 

[Federberg]

Yup. There are some big matches. MVL Grischuk will be tough too. I'm a big fan of Chuky too. One of the few player Kasparov preferred to avoid

 

[Federberg]

Svidler is really motoring along. I'll be seriously impressed if he gets to the final for the second time running. Surely this is the hardest way to qualify. Although he always feels like a waste of space in the actual qualifiers. Superb commentator though

 

[DarthFed]

Totally didn't realize Aronian is still there and he just devoured Ivanchuk today. Given that and the fact So has been poor lately I'd say Levon is the favorite to win this.

 

[Federberg]

He really is back isn't he

 

[Federberg]

Wow! Looks like Ding is going to beat Wesley barring an blunder. So that should make him the first Chinese guy to get to the WC qualifiers

 

[Federberg]

I'm so impressed with Levon. Had a dip in form for a few years, but he's back with this victory over MVL. He's right up there. I would place him along with Kramnik and Vishy as the guys just behind Magnus. Everyone else is just a pretender to me. Happy for him. Love his games.

 

[Federberg]

Wow! It's been known that Kramnik hasn't been playing that much so I always wondered how solid his current rating is. Now all of a sudden perhaps the truth is coming out. He's dropping like a stone!

 

[Federberg]

any thoughts on Hou Yifan's controversy? It seems that yet again in another Open tournament she's somehow always paired against women. I don't blame her for withdrawing. What on earth are the organisers thinking? She doesn't want to be prevented from playing against men. What are the odds that these are truly random? Chess is not helping itself at all here...

 

[DarthFed]

This is interesting:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chess-novice-challenged-magnus-carlsen-1510866214

I have to say I expected that guy would be a lot better. It said even before issuing this challenge that he had played chess regularly and given a full month with his apparent ability to learn quickly I figured he wouldn't totally suck. Seems he must have focused completely on openings but he is still a beginner clearly.

Wish I could randomly challenge Carlsen like that. He's played some on chess.com but it's usually an event

 

[DarthFed]

I finally saw Pawn Sacrifice yesterday, the movie that covered the 1972 Fischer-Spassky match. I thought it was kind of a bore but it really is difficult to make an exciting movie about chess and the main focus of the movie was naturally on the mentally ill genius which isn't always the most pleasant viewing either. There were several inaccuracies that were played up for dramatic effect including the portrayal of Spassky as the typical scary badass Soviet guy. Also saying game 6 is considered the greatest game ever played was laughable. I don't even think it was the best game of the match as game 15 was an absolute classic.

 

[Federberg]

So we now know the qualifiers for the next Candidates. Looks very strong to me!

Mamadyarov (Grand Prix)
Grischuk (Grand Prix)
Aronian (World Cup)
GM Ding Liren (World Cup)
GM Sergey Karjakin(World Championship Runner-Up)
GM Fabiano Caruana (rating, unofficial but mathematically certain)
GM Wesley So (rating, unofficial but mathematically certain)
GM Vladimir Kramnik(wildcard)

The only notable misses to my mind are Vishy and Hikaru, but there's no one there that looks out of place to me. Notice how Giri has almost been forgotten? My bet to make it through is Levon this time. For me he's the strongest in the field

 

[DarthFed]

^ That is a great field. I don't think there will be any "Topalov's" this time that just give out free wins like last year. I agree that Aronian is the clear favorite based on form but there are a lot of others that could win this for sure. Would be cool to see Kramnik win it as well. I like Grischuk a lot, strong as hell and pretty consistent but he's really the one guy I don't think has a chance to take the tourney. Everyone else has at least a bit of a chance.

And I for one will not miss Naka here. I just don't like the guy and he doesn't usually perform too well against a field of fellow elites so I doubt he'd have made much noise here.

 

[Federberg]

^ That is a great field. I don't think there will be any "Topalov's" this time that just give out free wins like last year. I agree that Aronian is the clear favorite based on form but there are a lot of others that could win this for sure. Would be cool to see Kramnik win it as well. I like Grischuk a lot, strong as hell and pretty consistent but he's really the one guy I don't think has a chance to take the tourney. Everyone else has at least a bit of a chance.

And I for one will not miss Naka here. I just don't like the guy and he doesn't usually perform too well against a field of fellow elites so I doubt he'd have made much noise here.

Yes I agree. Which them do you think poses the greatest threat to Magnus? A couple of years ago I would have said Fabi, but now I think Magnus has got his number. I actually think Levon and Kramnik would give the best fight. I still don't see anyone in that field being strong enough to contain Magnus over a stretch of games. Sergey had his chances last time around, but what are the odds that Magnus is going to be in such poor form again?

 

[DarthFed]

I'd have to say Aronian. I think Levon has become a little more solid over the years. Kramnik's main problem is age. He has done poorly vs Magnus for awhile now and I don't think he'd fare well in a match. Caruana still figures to be the second biggest threat IMO. When in good form he gives Carlsen hell, the problem is he isn't consistent enough and is one of those guys who seems to have too much bad chess in him. You can't have bad blunders too often vs Carlsen or it will get ugly in a match.

 

[DarthFed]

Last big tournament of the year is going on in London. All draws in the first two rounds and a couple draws already today. This Aronian-Karjakin game looks crazy. Major fireworks ahead after Aronian's Qc5

 

[DarthFed]

Not seeing a great way for White to attack, and if he can't attack he is a sitting duck. H4 was a sad but necessary concession.

 

[DarthFed]

If I'm seeing it right a draw was agreed after Kh1. If so that's serious lack of balls from Karjak. Both seemed to be in time trouble but clearly white had to play more carefully and was also a pawn down.

 

[DarthFed]

Be7 was the natural move there, just checked a prog and it had black as -2.50. Not sure what the hell Sergey was thinking...