Another angle on comparing tennis greats (with a pretty chart)

[the AntiPusher]

I'd try to get Mac's 1984 in there. I know he "only" won two Slams, but it was 2 of 3, and he won just about everything else. Best Win%, too.

I would put Rafa's 2021 year .He was at his Best until SW19..

 

[shawnbm]

I know he had a helluva year that year, but I do not think it is in the same realm as those other years. His best may have been 2010 and even then his overall dominance throughout the year was not at the same level as others on the list in their years.

 

[Front242]

Peak Soderling was a beast, especially on clay, and says hi to this thread. He'd mop the floor on clay with the current crop of players. A crying shame how his career ended. He destroyed the field in Bastad 2011 including Berdych and Ferrer.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I know he had a helluva year that year, but I do not think it is in the same realm as those other years. His best may have been 2010 and even then his overall dominance throughout the year was not at the same level as others on the list in their years.

Well Shawn if you look at the way he began that year, not loosing a match until IW because he ripped an upper abdomen muscle..he was truly in his zone and would have been ok if he had not so foolishly play both the American two hard courts tournaments back to back.

 

[Front242]

Shoutout to peak Jerzy Janowicz (only half serious here) but another career utterly destroyed by injuries. He was an animal at that Paris masters though and still gutted he lost to the little ferret, Luis Garcia Del Moral's long time pupil.

 

[Front242]

Well Shawn if you look at the way he began that year, not loosing a match until IW because he ripped an upper abdomen muscle..he was truly in his zone and would have been ok if he had not so foolishly play both the American two hard courts tournaments back to back.

A certain Swiss clown entered Toronto with no match play and a knee injury straight after holidays too in 2017 and blew his chances at the USO. One of the dumbest things he ever did as he was the clear favourite to win it if healthy that year.

 

[El Dude]

I would put Rafa's 2021 year .He was at his Best until SW19..

Wait, 2021? Are you sure you mean that year? Or do you mean 2022?

 

[El Dude]

As for Rafa and best seasons, I go back and forth on 2010 vs. 2013. 2010 was particularly impressive for not only being his only 3-Slam year, but also 3 Slam titles on 3 surfaces...only Novak equalled that in 2021. But I think he reached a higher level of play in 2013. But it is really pick your poison:

2010: 3 Slams (on 3 surfaces), 3 Masters, 1 500, Tour Finals runner-up
2013: 2 Slams (of 3 played), 5 Masters, 2 500, 1 250, Tour Finals runner-up

So it is a question of whether that extra Slam in 2010 is worth more than +2 Masters and an ATP 500, plus an overall higher level of dominance (10 titles of 17 played in 2013 vs. 7 of 17 in 2010). In 2010 you had a higher level from Roger, but in 2013 a higher level from Novak (and 2013 Novak > 2010 Roger, imo).

Anyhow, my overall feeling is that I prefer 2013. I think it gets the edge in both overall accomplishments and the level of his play.

2008 is an easy choice as his 3rd best season.

Comparing those three seasons to the best of others, Rafa's problem has always been sustaining it for the whole year. His weakness in the late season has kept him from having a season as good as Roger's and Novak's best. This isn't to say that Rafa was a lesser player for it, but to point out that there are different styles of dominance. Rafa's has been more "horizontal" - sustained over clay, and to a lesser extent beyond, for a long period of time from 18 years old into his mid-30s, whereas Roger's crown jewel is the four-year run of 2004-07 which is still the best in Open Era history, and Novak sort of combines the two, if slightly less on both accounts, and adding a higher floor across all surfaces than the other two. The point being, different flavors of greatness.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Wait, 2021? Are you sure you mean that year? Or do you mean 2022?

Probably 22 . My baad

 

[the AntiPusher]

As for Rafa and best seasons, I go back and forth on 2010 vs. 2013. 2010 was particularly impressive for not only being his only 3-Slam year, but also 3 Slam titles on 3 surfaces...only Novak equalled that in 2021. But I think he reached a higher level of play in 2013. But it is really pick your poison:

2010: 3 Slams (on 3 surfaces), 3 Masters, 1 500, Tour Finals runner-up
2013: 2 Slams (of 3 played), 5 Masters, 2 500, 1 250, Tour Finals runner-up

So it is a question of whether that extra Slam in 2010 is worth more than +2 Masters and an ATP 500, plus an overall higher level of dominance (10 titles of 17 played in 2013 vs. 7 of 17 in 2010). In 2010 you had a higher level from Roger, but in 2013 a higher level from Novak (and 2013 Novak > 2010 Roger, imo).

Anyhow, my overall feeling is that I prefer 2013. I think it gets the edge in both overall accomplishments and the level of his play.

2008 is an easy choice as his 3rd best season.

Comparing those three seasons to the best of others, Rafa's problem has always been sustaining it for the whole year. His weakness in the late season has kept him from having a season as good as Roger's and Novak's best. This isn't to say that Rafa was a lesser player for it, but to point out that there are different styles of dominance. Rafa's has been more "horizontal" - sustained over clay, and to a lesser extent beyond, for a long period of time from 18 years old into his mid-30s, whereas Roger's crown jewel is the four-year run of 2004-07 which is still the best in Open Era history, and Novak sort of combines the two, if slightly less on both accounts, and adding a higher floor across all surfaces than the other two. The point being, different flavors of greatness.

I would like to see Rafa's h2h vs the top ten during that period vs Novak's and Roger's.

 

[Fiero425]

Probably 22 . My baad!!!!

Yeah, probably! Novak was a match away at the USO in completing a CYGS! Nadal's name shouldn't have even been brought up; esp. after Novak defeated him at Rafa's beloved event, Paris in the SF! IDK how these 2 players can ever be compared again! Novak's achievements are so much greater & plentiful; 4 seasons w/ 3 won majors (twice in his 30's) & 425 wks. @ #1! That alone sets him apart from any player in the history of the game not just the Open Era!

 

[Front242]

Yeah, probably! Novak was a match away at the USO in completing a CYGS! Nadal's name shouldn't have even been brought up; esp. after Novak defeated him at Rafa's beloved event, Paris in the SF! IDK how these 2 players can ever be compared again! Novak's achievements are so much greater & plentiful; 4 seasons w/ 3 won majors (twice in his 30's) & 425 wks. @ #1! That alone sets him apart from any player in the history of the game not just the Open Era!

Novak holds another record of his own. He's the only member of the big 3 actually caught on camera drinking dubious potions mixed by his team who go to great lengths to ensure they're handed to him and at times accompanied by strange puffing and inhaling from a tube. They even made sure the empty bottles were handed back to his team on numerous occasions. I'm quite sure this has helped him a lot to achieve many of his records.

 

[Fiero425]

Novak holds another record of his own. He's the only member of the big 3 actually caught on camera drinking dubious potions mixed by his team who go to great lengths to ensure they're handed to him and at times accompanied by strange puffing and inhaling from a tube. They even made sure the empty bottles were handed back to his team on numerous occasions. I'm quite sure this has helped him a lot to achieve many of his records.

Well, nothing new w/ those ridiculous accusations! The same can be said of Fedal as they both stayed at the top of the rankings well into their 30's! The Big 3 have all had unprecedented dominance and success on the tour while age never seemed to slow them down! You know what they say about pointing fingers?

 

[Front242]

Well, nothing new w/ those ridiculous accusations! The same can be said of Fedal as they both stayed at the top of the rankings well into their 30's! The Big 3 have all had unprecedented dominance and success on the tour while age never seemed to slow them down! You know what they say about pointing fingers?

There are allegations about Nadal with his PRP treatments being performance enhancing, yes, and coincidentally they both occurred prior to 2 of his best years. He had PRP treatment in 2009 and 2012 which preceded his 2010 and 2013 seasons. There's actually nothing out there on Federer but of course that means nothing in sports but the fact remains that Novak's the only one who's been caught on camera actually having the nerve to drink magic potions live at matches. Federer, however, was the only one advocating for samples to be retested in the future so he knows there are cheats out there and wants them caught. If, however, he was clean and knew the other two (Djokovic and Nadal) weren't, you could hardly blame him for joining them. No one wants to play 2nd fiddle to a cheat in sports. The 6 hour AO final 2012 and 5 hour semi final should have made anyone not naive know the deal. Nadal, Djokovic and Murray kicked up a lot of fuss over doping controls and it's not hard to find this online. Some of the footage of Novak's potions wasn't televised but has been captured and released online and it's dodgy asf that nothing was done about it considering they actually have something concrete to go on there. Confiscate it and test it. They don't want the sport ruined like cycling by having the world number 1 shamed. This is why. Silent bans of course is the other tactic they use by saying a player is out due to injury but, again, they won't give them a proper punishment as it would taint the sport forever. That they allowed that maggot Halep back says it all. They only ban nobodies like Lepchenko. Gutless.

 

[El Dude]

I would like to see Rafa's h2h vs the top ten during that period vs Novak's and Roger's.

If we take Rafa's peak range as 2008-13, we get:

Rafa: 93-40 vs top 10 (69.9%); 47-26 vs top 5 (64.4%); 115-11 at Slams (91.3%); 406-62 overall (86.8%)
Novak: 99-51 vs top 10 (66%); 48-36 vs top 5 (57.1%); 125-18 at Slams (87.4%); 422-81 overall (83.9%)
Roger: 68-54 vs top 10 (55.7%); 33-39 vs. top 5 (45.8%); 122-19 at Slams (86.5%); 375-82 overall (82.1%)

So from 2008-13, Rafa clearly has the edge - especially over Roger. I mean, those are Rafa's best years and Roger had fallen from his absolute peak, and plus had that one horrible 2013 season in the mix. But Rafa was clearly the best player overall during that period, the "Golden Age" of the King of Clay.

Here's the best six-year spans of the other two, with Rafa's best repeated for comparison:

Rafa (2008-13): 93-40 vs top 10 (69.9%); 47-26 vs top 5 (64.4%); 115-11 at Slams (91.3%); 406-62 overall (86.8%)
Novak (2011-16): 140-34 vs top 10 (80.5%); 66-25 vs top 5 (72.5%); 143-13 at Slams (91.7%); 427-50 overall (89.5%)
Roger (2004-09): 91-30 vs top 10 (75.2%); 44-23 vs top 5 (65.7%); 149-10 at Slams (93.7%); 442-51 overall (89.7%)

So as you can see, Rafa's best six-year span is lower in all categories than the respective spans of both Novak and Roger, but...with a caveat. There's no denying that Roger had more easy wins - his gaudy record at Slams in 2004-09 is certainly padded by more easier opponents (Marcos Baghdatis?). So overall, I think Rafa in 2008-13 and Roger in 2004-09 are closer than the numbers above imply. Roger's span is still more dominant, but it was a dominance held in an overall easier context - especially the first few years before Novak and Andy got going in 2008. Furthermore, note that Roger's and Novak's best six-year spans don't overlap, but Rafa's overlaps with both...so he had to deal with a bit of both during their peaks, with only 2010--the year he won 3 Slams--without a peak-era Roger or Novak. 2008-09 was not absolute peak Roger, but Novak had a great year in 2008 and Andy was in play, and Rafa had one of his best years in '08 and would have in '09 if not for injury. Roger had one year without a very high level Rafa, and his four best years without a truly peak Rafa; Novak also had a few years without peak Rafa or Roger.

Again, different players of greatness that all point to three truly amazing players, who were all utterly dominant in slightly different ways.

That said, Novak's six year run has some really highlights. What stands out for me is that he played 174 matches vs top 10 opponents - vs. 121 for Roger and 133 for Rafa. And he still had a better win% vs. top 10 players (and top 5 players, with significantly more played than the other two). During their six year spans, Roger won 14 Slams to Rafa's 10 and Novak's 11. But the difference in those numbers is probably mostly--if not entirely--due to easier competition. In other words, if the 2004-09 version of Roger had played in a context similar to 2008-13 or 2011-16, he probably would have won 10-11 Slams too; similarly, the 2008-13 Rafa or 2011-16 Novak would probably have won 14ish Slams in a context like 2004-09.

But what we'll never know is how they would have matched up at their very best. Instead we get (somewhat) overlapping waves, with Rafa and Novak from 2011-13 being perhaps the best example of two of them playing alongside each other in peak form.

If you dice up their careers in different ways, you get different results. Roger has the best 2-4 year spans (any 2-4 year span from 2004-07 is best in class), but starts losing ground after that. If you focus on clay or any single surface, Rafa is clearly the top guy. And he also stands out as being the first to reach close to peak form, at the tender age of 19 (Rafa in 2005 wasn't far from where he got to in 2008-13). Novak has the best single season, and gets the overall title with more truly great seasons than the other two.

 

[Moxie]

Well he definitely is the surface GOAT, no doubt. We knew this, but I think the chart does a good job of putting it into visual form. Some might take issue with "surface GOAT" because it isn't the same as "overall GOAT," but I see it as high praise - it means that Rafa on clay is the best player of all time.

Your chart is very interesting, so thank you. After Nadal on clay, it levels off a lot.

In terms of a GOAT, or GOATs, maybe Nadal as clay GOAT IS the closest we have to a real one, without slicing and dicing, as you point out just above. He's got more than a few records that are really going to stand the test of time, one has to think. 14 French Open titles, as a start. (And he's still going to play at least one more...she points out, optimistically.) How long do you have to live before you see someone top that? I don't think I will. He has 2nd most Majors overall. I know there are folks who complain about so many on one surface, but he has won 2+ each on all surfaces, so that's a weak argument. And the stellar clay resume gives him a legacy that will be hard to beat. As a fan, I'm happy.

 

[Fiero425]

Your chart is very interesting, so thank you. After Nadal on clay, it levels off a lot.

In terms of a GOAT, or GOATs, maybe Nadal as clay GOAT IS the closest we have to a real one, without slicing and dicing, as you point out just above. He's got more than a few records that are really going to stand the test of time, one has to think. 14 French Open titles, as a start. (And he's still going to play at least one more...she points out, optimistically.) How long do you have to live before you see someone top that? I don't think I will. He has 2nd most Majors overall. I know there are folks who complain about so many on one surface, but he has won 2+ each on all surfaces, so that's a weak argument. And the stellar clay resume gives him a legacy that will be hard to beat. As a fan, I'm happy.

Oh, the word gymnastics we sometimes have to go thru! Poor baby! I'll give you "Clay GOAT" status to your boy, but that's about it! For someone who's played for 20 years, IMO to be the Ultimate GOAT, you need to do more than win on a single surface even though 14 FO victories will never happen again! That's why he'll hold that title forever even though I'd give Borg a nice chance to challenge his numbers but for retiring so early! IMO Nadal needed another streak somewhere else! Fedovic have 2-3 great streaks off clay & multiple YEC's while Nadal doesn't even have one! Nadal will always have his OGM, but IMO "so what?" Some guy called Massau has one too! Roger probably should be on top but for being owned by 2 other players H2H! Federer's record will always look a little better w/ 2 Five Year streaks; Wimbledon & USO! Novak has his 10 at AO, but of note is he's the only person in the Open Era to take it 3 years in a row TWICE! Djokovic did at least have 4 in a row at Wimbledon & taking 7 overall, while Nadal can only lament the wasted chances on grass he lost to nobodies & scrubs taking only 2 @ SW19!

 

[Moxie]

Oh, the word gymnastics we sometimes have to go thru! Poor baby! I'll give you "Clay GOAT" status to your boy, but that's about it! For someone who's played for 20 years, IMO to be the Ultimate GOAT, you need to do more than win on a single surface even though 14 FO victories will never happen again! That's why he'll hold that title forever even though I'd give Borg a nice chance to challenge his numbers but for retiring so early! IMO Nadal needed another streak somewhere else! Fedovic have 2-3 great streaks off clay & multiple YEC's while Nadal doesn't even have one! Nadal will always have his OGM, but IMO "so what?" Some guy called Massau has one too! Roger probably should be on top but for being owned by 2 other players H2H! Federer's record will always look a little better w/ 2 Five Year streaks; Wimbledon & USO! Novak has his 10 at AO, but of note is he's the only person in the Open Era to take it 3 years in a row TWICE! Djokovic did at least have 4 in a row at Wimbledon & taking 7 overall, while Nadal can only lament the wasted chances on grass he lost to nobodies & scrubs taking only 2 @ SW19!

Speaking of gymnastics, you have to invent a Borg that didn't retire early to compete with Nadal on clay. And let's face it...he's done more than win on clay, try as you might to forget that. Your problem (besides being an abuser of emoticons) is that there is no ultimate GOAT. But there is a definitive clay one.

 

[Front242]

This gives a much broader picture of the GOAT debate when you break it down this way.

AO GOAT - Djokovic
French Open GOAT - Nadal
Wimbledon GOAT - Federer
US Open GOAT - Federer

No one is winning 14 French Open titles or 5 consecutive US Open titles ever again. 10 AOs (and possibly more) is likely out of reach also. All crazy records.

 

[the AntiPusher]

This gives a much broader picture of the GOAT debate when you break it down this way.

AO GOAT - Djokovic
French Open GOAT - Nadal
Wimbledon GOAT - Federer
US Open GOAT - Federer

No one is winning 14 French Open titles or 5 consecutive US Open titles ever again. 10 AOs (and possibly more) is likely out of reach also. All crazy records.

I hope history records it 20 titles 3 headed GOAT.. period..