Every time it seems Rune is turning a corner, he goes into hot mess mode. At this point, he's slipped behind Mensik and Fonseca for me, in terms of career going forward. I see him closer to Fils.
My current list in terms of who I expect to have the best careers from this point on (not including guys not yet in the top 100):
- Sinner
- Alcaraz
- Fonseca
- Mensik
- Draper
- Fils
- Rune
I'd group Sinner/Alcaraz together - it could go either way, but I think they'll be close. While Sinner's a couple years older, he's also been the better player thus far and given Alcaraz's erratic performance, I'm giving Sinner the edge. Fonseca is a wildcard. He could join Sincaraz, or fall back below the next four if he doesn't develop as hoped. I still believe, though, but suspect it won't be until 2026-27 that he breaks through and wins a big title. The next four could all move around. Right now I like Mensik's upside the best, but Draper has become a really good player and Fils is still improving. If things ever click for Rune, he could be first of that group, but I've pretty much given up on him becoming the third member of a new Big Three. That ship has sailed, imo (sorry,
@Jelenafan ).
After the above seven it is tricky. Tien is possible, as are other really young guys. De Minaur, Shelton, Musetti, maybe whoever ages best of the Next Genners is in the mix. I don't think Korda is going to take a big step forward and pretty much is settling in as a 10-20 guy. As for Shelton, we might now know how good he'll be for another year or two. He could basically be what he is now--a cuspy top 10 guy--or he could be fighting for a place in the top 5.