Young Guns Watch: 2017

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Kyrgios is showing bad attitude again. His focus isn't totally on tennis atm and he is not sure if he wants to be remembered as a great player.

He looks far less promising now IMO. But, you never know. Maybe taking pressure off is his thing.

Let's just admit it there are no Rogers, Rafas and Novaks in the next generation. A player might end up winning 6 or 7 slams but I think we will be witnessing an era of mediocre ones. I don't really see any player with a compact game. Somehow, I never liked Zverev's game? I liked Rublev's forehand but where's he now?

 

[El Dude]

Yes, I agree that there are no Rogers, Rafas, and Novaks - at least among players born in the 90s. After that, who knows. Felix Auger Aliassime has huge potential, but he's only 16.

 

[El Dude]

Speaking of Aliassime, he's up to #332...at age 16! He turns 17 in August (the same birthday as Roger), and I think has a good chance of finishing the year in the top 200 as a 17-year old, and then making a run for the top 100 next year. The kid is very, very talented.

 

[El Dude]

Zverev is moving up another octave, with a real chance of being in the top 10 quite soon. After reaching the SF of Rome he's at #14 in the live rankings. If he beats Isner he stays at #14, but if he wins Rome then he pushes David Goffin out of the #10 spot and makes the top 10 for the first time. I don't know for certain, but my guess is that he'd be the first 20-year old in the top 10 since del Potro, who reached the top 10 in Oct, 2008, a couple weeks after turning 20.

There are a bunch of different paths, but the long and short of it is that even if he doesn't win Rome and reach #10 in a couple days, he'll have chances over the next few months. He's got some points to defend, but not a ton. But he'll need to either win a Masters and/or go deep in Slams to stabilize in the top 10.

 

[isabelle]

Thiem played great yesterday, hope he can make the Rome's final

 

[herios]

Felix Auger-Aliassime plays very well this week in a challenger in Lyon and reached the final. As a consequence, he vaulted into the top 300 at only 16y.

 

[herios]

FAA on the move after winning his first challenger title in Lyon

 

[El Dude]

Nice. FAA is legit and could be really, really good. He's up to #232 in the live rankings, #133 in the Race rankings...pretty amazing for a 16-year old.

 

[El Dude]

A couple notable wins today:
*18-year old Denis Shapovalov beat #47 Kyle Edmund to rise to #163 in the live rankings.
*19-year old Andrey Rublev beat #22 Albert Ramos-Vinolas to rise to #97 in the live rankings.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Ru

A couple notable wins today:
*18-year old Denis Shapovalov beat #47 Kyle Edmund to rise to #163 in the live rankings.
*19-year old Andrey Rublev beat #22 Albert Ramos-Vinolas to rise to #97 in the live rankings.

Big win for Rublev.

 

[El Dude]

Ru


Big win for Rublev.

He's one of the Next Gen I've been following the most, but have been disappointed with him as he really stalled out last year, barely increasing his ranking. But he's played a lot better this year, going from #156 to end 2016 to the cusp of--and possibly into--the top 100. I'm hoping he has a strong second half to come close to the top 50 by year's end.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

He's one of the Next Gen I've been following the most, but have been disappointed with him as he really stalled out last year, barely increasing his ranking. But he's played a lot better this year, going from #156 to end 2016 to the cusp of--and possibly into--the top 100. I'm hoping he has a strong second half to come close to the top 50 by year's end.

I really like his forehand. There is something nice in it. And I hope he emerges out of the cluster of young talents as the distinguished one. Age-wise he has really fallen behind a bit, but let's hope he finds motivation soon. It is still very much possible. I prefer him to Zverev any day.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

These young guns need to draw inspiration from our elites like Roger and Rafa. A lot of these guys have talent but there must be a reason for their slow pace. It might just be their lack of will to put in the hard work. This is always the main reason.

 

[El Dude]

I wonder if it is a generational thing - the quick-fix social media, "me generation" of Facebook, Instagram, etc.

As for Rublev, he is slower than some, and certainly behind the elite trajectory of development, but it is interesting to note that he's passed Fritz, who is exactly the same age and seemed on the fast-track to greatness a year ago. But yeah, he's got some nice weaponry and I'd like to see what he could do if he matured mentally.

 

[herios]

I wonder if it is a generational thing - the quick-fix social media, "me generation" of Facebook, Instagram, etc.

As for Rublev, he is slower than some, and certainly behind the elite trajectory of development, but it is interesting to note that he's passed Fritz, who is exactly the same age and seemed on the fast-track to greatness a year ago. But yeah, he's got some nice weaponry and I'd like to see what he could do if he matured mentally.

Fritz did not play a lot since he became a father. He did not come to Europe for the clay season at all.
About Rublev, he plays almost every week. I am still not impressed, because he moved up a lot because of others falling by not defending their points. At least, that was the case in the last few weeks.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Fritz did not play a lot since he became a father. He did not come to Europe for the clay season at all.
About Rublev, he plays almost every week. I am still not impressed, because he moved up a lot because of others falling by not defending their points. At least, that was the case in the last few weeks.

Rublev is where he is because of his and others' performances in the last 52 weeks. This is how I look at the rankings. It does not matter how much you have to defend. All that matters is that you have to do better than any player for 52 weeks to be ahead of him in rankings. If Rublev rose then it indicates that he has improved his results to such an extent that they have exceeded those of the set of players in the last 52 weeks who he has surpassed. Points to be defended is not even tangible. If you can tweak your way of thinking, you can do better as a player.

 

[El Dude]

Rublev is definitely progressing, beating some pretty good players in Ramos-Vinolas and Youzhny. He's also now #91 in the live rankings, so should start next week in the top 100. He's also #63 in the Race to London rankings and #7 in the Race to Milan rankings.

 

[El Dude]

Rublev loses to Khachanov, but overall very pleased with his "micro-breakthrough" at Halle: he beat two good veterans and almost beat another rising young player who is ahead of him developmentally. I think (or hope) he builds on this and rises up to the 40-60 range by year's end.

 

[El Dude]

Its been a tough Wimbledon for the Next Gen, with only four players eligible for Milan through to the third round: Karen Khachanov, Sascha Zverev, Jared Donaldson, and Austrian Sebastian Ofner, who just upset Jack Sock. The 21-year old Ofner was ranked #217 before the tournament, but has moved up at least 60 ranks so far.

While Andrey Rublev lost to Vinolas-Ramos in a five setter, I'm pleased with his showing and convinced he's making a legit breakthrough. He's now #75 in the live rankings, just behind Frances Tiafoe among teenagers. He's at #53 in the Race rankings and should finish the year inside the top 50, and reach the Milan finals.

 

[mrzz]

While Andrey Rublev lost to Vinolas-Ramos in a five setter, I'm pleased with his showing and convinced he's making a legit breakthrough.

He is yet another guy I had winning on my bracket and ended up losing in the fifth. I am not pleased. I hope he loses his next 347 matches and becomes a ping-pong instructor in Siberia.