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INTRODUCTION
We're now at that point in the Sincaraz Hegemony where it isn't a matter of if they'll win a Slam in the upcoming year, but if anyone else will - and in the inevitability that they eventually will, when (and who)? Dial back to the beginning of 2008, when Roger Federer had combined for the last 11 Grand Slam titles. Sincaraz are now at 8 in a row.
But tennis isn't only about Slams; they may be the entree of the ATP season meal, but there's lots of snacks, appetizers and the dessert that make the entire season interesting. And for me at least, a major part of the fun of following tennis (or any sport) is looking at the up-and-comers and prospects, as well as younger and/or non-elite players who flash elite potential or are just interesting in some form or fashion.
I would also mention something Alexander Zverev said in an amusingly cramp-ridden interview a few months back (look for the foot shot near the end). In paraphrase, he said that the 15-30 range is stronger now than in the Big Four era, that there are more guys that will upset the top players. I think this speaks to improved depth in today's game, and thus more interesting players to watch.
Below are seven players that I think are worth paying attention to as the 2026 ATP season starts a week from now. Most of these players aren't serious Slam contenders, at least not yet, but all have the potential to make some noise in 2026. In no particular order...
JOAO FONSECA
How can he not be on this list? He finished 2025 at #24, bookending the season by winning his first title early and his first ATP 500 in Basel. He'll be 19 for most of 2026 and there's no longer a question (if there ever was) that he's going to be a star player. But "star player" ranges from Richard Gasquet to Rafael Nadal, so really with Fonseca the question is where on the Gasquet-to-Nadal scale he'll end up. A lot of star players get stuck in the #5-15 range...these are the guys that are sometimes called "second tier." They're not true elites, but still--in the big picture--excellent players. While I think Joao will become a true elite (top 5 player), it still isn't a foregone conclusion. We can only look at Holger Rune, who actually won his first Masters just a couple months older than Joao is now, but never got past the hump. Three years after Paris and Holger only has 5 career titles, and it took him 2 1/2 years after that Paris title to win even an ATP 500. Meaning, if you were to imagine a floor/ceiling for Holger at the end of 2022, it wouldn't be that different than what we're imagining now for Fonseca, and Holger has turned out much closer to Gasquet than Nadal -- as most promising tennis prospects do. And Gasquet did have a very good career.
The good news is that Fonseca is a different person than Holger Rune. I don't want to go into comparisons or risk badmouthing poor Holger, but Fonzie looks like he'll be able to handle the vicissitudes of winning and losing much better. He's handled both the enormous hype and his on-court emotions very well. But nothing is guaranteed, and while I think Fonzie will be at least a top tier "lesser elite" type like Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, and Daniil Medvedev, and has the potential to at least be the Andy Murrayan "missing link" between Sincaraz and the field, it is still too early to know. There's really nothing not to like here: his prodigious talent, his demeanor, and his ranking arc from 730 to 145 to 24.
If we want to find something to worry about, while he showed a lot of promise in 2025, he rarely went deep in any tournament. Other than the two he won, he didn't win more than two matches at any other tournament. But it isn't a big concern; with time and experience, he'll get better.
My Prediction: Don't be surprised or disappointed if Fonseca doesn't take the tour by storm in 2026, but rather look for him to start going deeper in most tournaments. 2025 was a first full loop around the circuit, familiarizing himself with the full cycle, if you will. Now he can start going deeper, and pick up some more titles. I do think he's got a shot at a Masters, with clay season a possibility. But if he starts reaching more QFs and SFs, with a few more minor titles sprinkled in, he'll still be at least on the cusp of the top 10 by year's end and I think we should still be optimistic about his future, even if he doesn't manage to bring home a big trophy, though it is possible. A Slam? I don't think he'll be a serious contender until 2027 or '28. That said, I think he'll have at least one deepish run to the QF/SF.
BEN SHELTON
At 23, Shelton isn't quite a spring chicken anymore. But he's also a bit of a young 23. He's played 76 ATP level tournaments; by comparison, Alcaraz and Nadal played their 76th tournament around their 21st birthdays. But it also goes beyond age and match experience; Shelton didn't really start playing consistent tennis until he was 12 years old; most future stars begin 5+ years before that.
All of the above gives Ben an unpolished quality, like he's still a work in progress and even going to be a late-bloomer. What this means is that we probably haven't seen his best tennis yet. Consider what the "unpolished" version of Shelton has accomplished: He's been in the top 20 for most of the last three years, finishing 2025 at #9, largely due to winning his first Masters in Canada while still 22. A twinge of worry would have been understandable when 2024 wasn't really an improvement over 2023, but after marked improvement this year, in hindsight, 2024 is easier to rightly see as a year of consolidation.
He also had his best showing at Slams so far; he equalled 2023's SF and QF finishes, but switched out the 1R and 2R losses for 3R and 4R. Now imagine a bit more polish, a bit more consistency, and he's a top 5 guy with multiple Masters titles and a legit contender at Slams. The big question is whether he can get by the Sincaraz gauntlet. Right now he's capable of beating anyone else on tour on a good day. He's 1-8 vs Sinner, whom he hasn't beaten in over two years since 2023 Shanghai, when Jannik was just starting to rise to the current iteration we see demolishing players today. He's 0-3 vs Alcaraz, though did take him to four in the R16 of Roland Garros this past year.
If we are to consider who the best candidate is to be the first player to break-up the Sincaraz Slam hegemony, I think we'd have to start with the healthy version of Jack Draper. But Shelton isn't far behind and might be 2nd (or 1st, with Draper out), unless Medvedev's little rise at the end of the year turns into a career renaissance or Zverev has a spiritual awakening.
My Prediction: Continues to rise and finishes with his second year in the top 10. He'll win some titles, maybe another Masters. I don't see a Slam, though if we see a more polished game, he becomes the top darkhorse after Sincaraz. While Taylor Fritz remains the #1 Yankee, 2026 might be the year that Big Ben surpasses him. He's certainly a more dynamic player with higher upside.
FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME
Hard to believe that Felix is now 25 years old. He first came to my attention almost a decade ago, when he was 15 or 16 (and then through browsing this Tennis Abstract page, which I like to keep an eye on to watch for up-and-coming names to remember). Felix entered the top 100 as an 18-year old in early 2019 and then jumped to #60 after making the Rio ATP 500 final. He continued to rise, finishing the year at #21. Then Covid hit and, like many young players, Felix stalled out a bit, finishing the year at #21 again. For a few years, Felix was probably the most promising young player on tour among those who hadn't yet popped their big title cherry. But after 2020, a question about Felix's upside began to emerge. He did continue to improve in 2021 and '22, finishing #11 and #6, respectively, but he no longer looked like a future great. Most greats reach prime level by age 21-22, and while #6 was nothing to be ashamed about, there were some holes in his game, and he hadn't won more than an ATP 500. But he still looked like he was going to win some big titles, possibly a Slam or two.
These concerns were validated when Felix backslid in 2023 and '24, finishing #29 in both years. The question went from whether he'd win one or more Slams to whether he'd every win even a Masters. By that point, we knew Felix well. He's known for being one of the nicest--not to mention most cultured/smartest--players on tour. There's a sense that he doesn't have the killer instinct; it is almost as if he is too nice for competitive sports. But 2025 was an interesting year; he started strong and ended stronger, but with a lot of coasting in-between. But he reached the QF or better of the last six tournaments he played, including the US Open SF (losing to Sinner in four sets), the Paris Masters final (losing to Sinner), and the ATP Finals SF (losing to Alcaraz). He went from #28 at the beginning of the US Open to #5 to finish the year, going 21-6 from the US Open on. He earned 13 points in my PEP system, the same as 2022. Of those 13 points (or 12.5), he earned 8.5 from the US Open on.
All of which brings me to 2026. Has Felix found a new lease on his competitive nature and taken it up a notch? Or will he come back down to earth? It is hard to say. Chances are he won't be as consistently good as he was in the final couple months of 2025, but he'll be better than 2023-24.
My Prediction: Stabilizes in the top 10. At this point, he's my top candidate for new Masters winner, just ahead of De Minaur and Fils. We're in an era where the Masters are more up for grabs than they were a decade ago.
JAKUB MENSIK
Mensik surprised the tennis world by beating Novak Djokovic in the Miami Masters final. But it wasn't just Novak; he also beat Taylor Fritz, Arthur Fils and Jack Draper. He had flashed promise in 2024, reaching the top 50 as a teenager and flashing talent at the Next Gen Finals. But no one expected a Masters title in the wee hours of 2025. What was most promising was how dominant he played in Miami; his first serve was basically unplayable, among the best on tour (it certainly was in Miami, at least). But after that, we've got problems: starting with a weak second serve, and a mediocre (at best) forehand. His backhand is solid, and he moves OK, but his let-down after Miami showed us how much he has to work on. He's still only 20, but it might take him a year or two to play more consistently at the level he showed in Miami. He remains one of the "swingiest" young players on tour: He could be a less head-casey Alexander Zverev or he could be a guy who struggles to consistently stay in the top 10. If I'm Mensik's coaching team, I'm less worried about titles for 2026, and more about bringing up the floor on his skills after that first serve.
My Prediction: While on the surface, Mensik went from #48 in 2024 to #19 in 2025 and his first big title, there's too much for him to improve upon for me to think he's going to finish in the top 10 in 2026. But he's young enough (he doesn't turn 21 until September) that improvement can happen rapidly, but like Fonseca, I'm looking more towards consistency and going deeper in tournaments. I predict he consolidates his top 20 ranking, and may edge up closer to the top 10, but finishes in the 11-20 range for a second year in a row. But right now he's looking more Holger Rune than Joao Fonseca, and suspect his prime will be in the vein of Berdych/Tsonga.
ARTHUR FILS
For awhile, Arthur Fils was the top young guy born after Alcaraz and Rune. In 2023, he become the first guy born in 2004 or later to win a title, and after winning two ATP 500s in 2024, he was joined by Juncheng Shang, and then Fonseca, Mensik, and Learner Tien in 2025. Like Mensik in 2025, Fils finished 2024 as a 20 year old at #19. His two ATP 500s occurred in the second half of the year, so there was a sense that he was poised for a breakout in 20205. But the year began on a wobbly note as he went out relatively early in his first few tournaments, including a 3rd round exit of the Australian Open. But his play improved as he made the QF of three Masters in a row. However, sometime during clay season he hurt his back and he ended up withdrawing from Roland Garros after a grueling second round victory over Jaime Munar due to a stress fracture in his back. Ouch. Fils didn't play for the rest of the year, and fell to #40. As of a few weeks ago, he wasn't sure when he'd be back but isn't worried (allegedly). As the Australian Open warm-ups loom a week from now, we'll just have to wait and see for more news.
My Prediction: The lack of a clear return date is worrisome, as are back injuries in general. As with Draper and Rune, the questions go beyond just a return date and whether or not the player will be the same, or how the big layoffs will impact their development. But assuming health, Fils should get back to where he was last clay season: A rising young player, shooting for the top 10. I think a positive result would be health first and foremost and a top 20 finish. But it is important to remember just how much such an injury can impact a tennis career: he not only lost half of last year, but at least some of this year will be getting back into form...and that's assuming he is 100% healthy. My hesitant prediction is that he won't get back his form fully until midseason and then, if healthy, could have a strong second half. He's a dark-horse for one of the North American Masters...again, if healthy.
JACK DRAPER
His recent withdrawal from the Australian Open heightens concerns about his injury. Draper was a player to watch entering 2025 and he capitalized by winning Indian Wells. After a strong clay season, be became the first Brit to reach the top 5 since Andy Murray and, along with only Tim Henman and Greg Rusedski, one of only Brits to reach the top 5 in the ATP era. But it was also during clay season that he began to feel pain in his arm, and after Wimbledon he only played in the US Open, going out in the second round in both of the last two Slams.
Through Roland Garros, Draper was probably the third or fourth best player on tour and seemed to have emerged as the top candidate for the Andy Murray Award, aka "best of the rest." But all bets are off now. We can hope he'll come back strong, but such injuries take awhile to heal and have a tendency to linger and/or recur. Let's hope for the best, because the tour's more interesting with a healthy Jack Draper.
My Prediction: If he had been healthy for the AO, he would have been my pick to finish the year at #3. But now its hard to predict his season with the lingering injury, or how long it will take him to find his best form. I think he'll manage another top 10 finish, but suspect the top 5 is a bit of a stretch.
ALEXANDER BUBLIK
What to make of Mr Bublik? He's one of the most enigmatic, quirky characters on tour. One day he doesn't care about tennis, and the next he beats Jannik Sinner. All things tolled, Bublik--who turned 28 last June--had his best season, winning four titles, more than anyone but Sinner and Alcaraz, and as much as 2022-24 combined. He also finished the year #11, his first finish in the top 30, and won six matches against 10 players. Who is Bublik? Well, he was born of couple months after Zverev, and was part of Eastern European-dominated Next Gen cohort of players born in the mid-to-late 90s. But he was in the "second class" of that group, and slow to develop early on, then stagnated in the 30-50 range for much of his prime. So what happened in 2025 and, more importantly, is it sustainable?
Who knows. Either way, Bublik is one of the more interesting players right now. At the least, he's a wildcard that no one wants to see in their draw. He can presumably beat anyone on a good day
My Prediction: To repeat: who knows. That said, I would be surprised if Bublik suddenly developed a consistent game and became a fixture in the top 10 for the next few years. But I do think he'll continue to be (at least) a dangerous floater, and I hope there's more of what we saw to come. Of the guys who seem to max out at a level below Masters winner, Bublik is guy that wouldn't totally surprise me if he snuck one out. In fact, while I'd give Auger-Aliassime and possibly Arthur Fils a greater chance of being new Masters winners in 2026, I'd say Bublik is right there with De Minaur (and maybe Tommy Paul) next: but as an anti-De Minaur or anti-Paul. Both of those players fit into the Casper Ruud mold: very good players who might win a Masters by default (that is, if Sincaraz aren't in the mix). But Bublik could win a Masters on his own racket. Will he? Probably not, but one can dream and it would be a blast to watch happen.
SOME HONORABLE MENTIONS:
Holger Rune - He may miss the entire year, but if he comes back, will he be able to return to top 10 form and, if so, when? Probably not until either very late in the year or possibly 2026. Oh, the Holger who could have been...
Learner Tien - An interesting contrast to Mensik among the top non-Brazillian prospects. He also improved late in the season and seems a lock to become a fixture in the top 20 for years to come. The question is about upside? He'll almost certainly reach the top 10 at some point, but does he have the chops to win a big title?
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - You know why.
Valentin Vacherot - Possibly the biggest surprise Masters winner of the last two decades, and a bit of a throwback to an era in which quite a few players would surprise (remember Alberto Portas or Andrei Pavel, anyone?). Vacherot actually followed it up with a QF run in Paris, so he might have a pretty good next few years in him. I don't expect a repeat Masters title, but it would be nice to see him be a top 20-40 guy.
Jiri Lehecka - Might be the definition of "dangerous floater." We could add Cerundolo, Cobolli, and several others here.
Zverev/Medvedev/Tsitsipas/Rublev - The top players of Next Gen all seem in some form of decline. Can any of them resurge?
We're now at that point in the Sincaraz Hegemony where it isn't a matter of if they'll win a Slam in the upcoming year, but if anyone else will - and in the inevitability that they eventually will, when (and who)? Dial back to the beginning of 2008, when Roger Federer had combined for the last 11 Grand Slam titles. Sincaraz are now at 8 in a row.
But tennis isn't only about Slams; they may be the entree of the ATP season meal, but there's lots of snacks, appetizers and the dessert that make the entire season interesting. And for me at least, a major part of the fun of following tennis (or any sport) is looking at the up-and-comers and prospects, as well as younger and/or non-elite players who flash elite potential or are just interesting in some form or fashion.
I would also mention something Alexander Zverev said in an amusingly cramp-ridden interview a few months back (look for the foot shot near the end). In paraphrase, he said that the 15-30 range is stronger now than in the Big Four era, that there are more guys that will upset the top players. I think this speaks to improved depth in today's game, and thus more interesting players to watch.
Below are seven players that I think are worth paying attention to as the 2026 ATP season starts a week from now. Most of these players aren't serious Slam contenders, at least not yet, but all have the potential to make some noise in 2026. In no particular order...
JOAO FONSECA
How can he not be on this list? He finished 2025 at #24, bookending the season by winning his first title early and his first ATP 500 in Basel. He'll be 19 for most of 2026 and there's no longer a question (if there ever was) that he's going to be a star player. But "star player" ranges from Richard Gasquet to Rafael Nadal, so really with Fonseca the question is where on the Gasquet-to-Nadal scale he'll end up. A lot of star players get stuck in the #5-15 range...these are the guys that are sometimes called "second tier." They're not true elites, but still--in the big picture--excellent players. While I think Joao will become a true elite (top 5 player), it still isn't a foregone conclusion. We can only look at Holger Rune, who actually won his first Masters just a couple months older than Joao is now, but never got past the hump. Three years after Paris and Holger only has 5 career titles, and it took him 2 1/2 years after that Paris title to win even an ATP 500. Meaning, if you were to imagine a floor/ceiling for Holger at the end of 2022, it wouldn't be that different than what we're imagining now for Fonseca, and Holger has turned out much closer to Gasquet than Nadal -- as most promising tennis prospects do. And Gasquet did have a very good career.
The good news is that Fonseca is a different person than Holger Rune. I don't want to go into comparisons or risk badmouthing poor Holger, but Fonzie looks like he'll be able to handle the vicissitudes of winning and losing much better. He's handled both the enormous hype and his on-court emotions very well. But nothing is guaranteed, and while I think Fonzie will be at least a top tier "lesser elite" type like Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, and Daniil Medvedev, and has the potential to at least be the Andy Murrayan "missing link" between Sincaraz and the field, it is still too early to know. There's really nothing not to like here: his prodigious talent, his demeanor, and his ranking arc from 730 to 145 to 24.
If we want to find something to worry about, while he showed a lot of promise in 2025, he rarely went deep in any tournament. Other than the two he won, he didn't win more than two matches at any other tournament. But it isn't a big concern; with time and experience, he'll get better.
My Prediction: Don't be surprised or disappointed if Fonseca doesn't take the tour by storm in 2026, but rather look for him to start going deeper in most tournaments. 2025 was a first full loop around the circuit, familiarizing himself with the full cycle, if you will. Now he can start going deeper, and pick up some more titles. I do think he's got a shot at a Masters, with clay season a possibility. But if he starts reaching more QFs and SFs, with a few more minor titles sprinkled in, he'll still be at least on the cusp of the top 10 by year's end and I think we should still be optimistic about his future, even if he doesn't manage to bring home a big trophy, though it is possible. A Slam? I don't think he'll be a serious contender until 2027 or '28. That said, I think he'll have at least one deepish run to the QF/SF.
BEN SHELTON
At 23, Shelton isn't quite a spring chicken anymore. But he's also a bit of a young 23. He's played 76 ATP level tournaments; by comparison, Alcaraz and Nadal played their 76th tournament around their 21st birthdays. But it also goes beyond age and match experience; Shelton didn't really start playing consistent tennis until he was 12 years old; most future stars begin 5+ years before that.
All of the above gives Ben an unpolished quality, like he's still a work in progress and even going to be a late-bloomer. What this means is that we probably haven't seen his best tennis yet. Consider what the "unpolished" version of Shelton has accomplished: He's been in the top 20 for most of the last three years, finishing 2025 at #9, largely due to winning his first Masters in Canada while still 22. A twinge of worry would have been understandable when 2024 wasn't really an improvement over 2023, but after marked improvement this year, in hindsight, 2024 is easier to rightly see as a year of consolidation.
He also had his best showing at Slams so far; he equalled 2023's SF and QF finishes, but switched out the 1R and 2R losses for 3R and 4R. Now imagine a bit more polish, a bit more consistency, and he's a top 5 guy with multiple Masters titles and a legit contender at Slams. The big question is whether he can get by the Sincaraz gauntlet. Right now he's capable of beating anyone else on tour on a good day. He's 1-8 vs Sinner, whom he hasn't beaten in over two years since 2023 Shanghai, when Jannik was just starting to rise to the current iteration we see demolishing players today. He's 0-3 vs Alcaraz, though did take him to four in the R16 of Roland Garros this past year.
If we are to consider who the best candidate is to be the first player to break-up the Sincaraz Slam hegemony, I think we'd have to start with the healthy version of Jack Draper. But Shelton isn't far behind and might be 2nd (or 1st, with Draper out), unless Medvedev's little rise at the end of the year turns into a career renaissance or Zverev has a spiritual awakening.
My Prediction: Continues to rise and finishes with his second year in the top 10. He'll win some titles, maybe another Masters. I don't see a Slam, though if we see a more polished game, he becomes the top darkhorse after Sincaraz. While Taylor Fritz remains the #1 Yankee, 2026 might be the year that Big Ben surpasses him. He's certainly a more dynamic player with higher upside.
FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME
Hard to believe that Felix is now 25 years old. He first came to my attention almost a decade ago, when he was 15 or 16 (and then through browsing this Tennis Abstract page, which I like to keep an eye on to watch for up-and-coming names to remember). Felix entered the top 100 as an 18-year old in early 2019 and then jumped to #60 after making the Rio ATP 500 final. He continued to rise, finishing the year at #21. Then Covid hit and, like many young players, Felix stalled out a bit, finishing the year at #21 again. For a few years, Felix was probably the most promising young player on tour among those who hadn't yet popped their big title cherry. But after 2020, a question about Felix's upside began to emerge. He did continue to improve in 2021 and '22, finishing #11 and #6, respectively, but he no longer looked like a future great. Most greats reach prime level by age 21-22, and while #6 was nothing to be ashamed about, there were some holes in his game, and he hadn't won more than an ATP 500. But he still looked like he was going to win some big titles, possibly a Slam or two.
These concerns were validated when Felix backslid in 2023 and '24, finishing #29 in both years. The question went from whether he'd win one or more Slams to whether he'd every win even a Masters. By that point, we knew Felix well. He's known for being one of the nicest--not to mention most cultured/smartest--players on tour. There's a sense that he doesn't have the killer instinct; it is almost as if he is too nice for competitive sports. But 2025 was an interesting year; he started strong and ended stronger, but with a lot of coasting in-between. But he reached the QF or better of the last six tournaments he played, including the US Open SF (losing to Sinner in four sets), the Paris Masters final (losing to Sinner), and the ATP Finals SF (losing to Alcaraz). He went from #28 at the beginning of the US Open to #5 to finish the year, going 21-6 from the US Open on. He earned 13 points in my PEP system, the same as 2022. Of those 13 points (or 12.5), he earned 8.5 from the US Open on.
All of which brings me to 2026. Has Felix found a new lease on his competitive nature and taken it up a notch? Or will he come back down to earth? It is hard to say. Chances are he won't be as consistently good as he was in the final couple months of 2025, but he'll be better than 2023-24.
My Prediction: Stabilizes in the top 10. At this point, he's my top candidate for new Masters winner, just ahead of De Minaur and Fils. We're in an era where the Masters are more up for grabs than they were a decade ago.
JAKUB MENSIK
Mensik surprised the tennis world by beating Novak Djokovic in the Miami Masters final. But it wasn't just Novak; he also beat Taylor Fritz, Arthur Fils and Jack Draper. He had flashed promise in 2024, reaching the top 50 as a teenager and flashing talent at the Next Gen Finals. But no one expected a Masters title in the wee hours of 2025. What was most promising was how dominant he played in Miami; his first serve was basically unplayable, among the best on tour (it certainly was in Miami, at least). But after that, we've got problems: starting with a weak second serve, and a mediocre (at best) forehand. His backhand is solid, and he moves OK, but his let-down after Miami showed us how much he has to work on. He's still only 20, but it might take him a year or two to play more consistently at the level he showed in Miami. He remains one of the "swingiest" young players on tour: He could be a less head-casey Alexander Zverev or he could be a guy who struggles to consistently stay in the top 10. If I'm Mensik's coaching team, I'm less worried about titles for 2026, and more about bringing up the floor on his skills after that first serve.
My Prediction: While on the surface, Mensik went from #48 in 2024 to #19 in 2025 and his first big title, there's too much for him to improve upon for me to think he's going to finish in the top 10 in 2026. But he's young enough (he doesn't turn 21 until September) that improvement can happen rapidly, but like Fonseca, I'm looking more towards consistency and going deeper in tournaments. I predict he consolidates his top 20 ranking, and may edge up closer to the top 10, but finishes in the 11-20 range for a second year in a row. But right now he's looking more Holger Rune than Joao Fonseca, and suspect his prime will be in the vein of Berdych/Tsonga.
ARTHUR FILS
For awhile, Arthur Fils was the top young guy born after Alcaraz and Rune. In 2023, he become the first guy born in 2004 or later to win a title, and after winning two ATP 500s in 2024, he was joined by Juncheng Shang, and then Fonseca, Mensik, and Learner Tien in 2025. Like Mensik in 2025, Fils finished 2024 as a 20 year old at #19. His two ATP 500s occurred in the second half of the year, so there was a sense that he was poised for a breakout in 20205. But the year began on a wobbly note as he went out relatively early in his first few tournaments, including a 3rd round exit of the Australian Open. But his play improved as he made the QF of three Masters in a row. However, sometime during clay season he hurt his back and he ended up withdrawing from Roland Garros after a grueling second round victory over Jaime Munar due to a stress fracture in his back. Ouch. Fils didn't play for the rest of the year, and fell to #40. As of a few weeks ago, he wasn't sure when he'd be back but isn't worried (allegedly). As the Australian Open warm-ups loom a week from now, we'll just have to wait and see for more news.
My Prediction: The lack of a clear return date is worrisome, as are back injuries in general. As with Draper and Rune, the questions go beyond just a return date and whether or not the player will be the same, or how the big layoffs will impact their development. But assuming health, Fils should get back to where he was last clay season: A rising young player, shooting for the top 10. I think a positive result would be health first and foremost and a top 20 finish. But it is important to remember just how much such an injury can impact a tennis career: he not only lost half of last year, but at least some of this year will be getting back into form...and that's assuming he is 100% healthy. My hesitant prediction is that he won't get back his form fully until midseason and then, if healthy, could have a strong second half. He's a dark-horse for one of the North American Masters...again, if healthy.
JACK DRAPER
His recent withdrawal from the Australian Open heightens concerns about his injury. Draper was a player to watch entering 2025 and he capitalized by winning Indian Wells. After a strong clay season, be became the first Brit to reach the top 5 since Andy Murray and, along with only Tim Henman and Greg Rusedski, one of only Brits to reach the top 5 in the ATP era. But it was also during clay season that he began to feel pain in his arm, and after Wimbledon he only played in the US Open, going out in the second round in both of the last two Slams.
Through Roland Garros, Draper was probably the third or fourth best player on tour and seemed to have emerged as the top candidate for the Andy Murray Award, aka "best of the rest." But all bets are off now. We can hope he'll come back strong, but such injuries take awhile to heal and have a tendency to linger and/or recur. Let's hope for the best, because the tour's more interesting with a healthy Jack Draper.
My Prediction: If he had been healthy for the AO, he would have been my pick to finish the year at #3. But now its hard to predict his season with the lingering injury, or how long it will take him to find his best form. I think he'll manage another top 10 finish, but suspect the top 5 is a bit of a stretch.
ALEXANDER BUBLIK
What to make of Mr Bublik? He's one of the most enigmatic, quirky characters on tour. One day he doesn't care about tennis, and the next he beats Jannik Sinner. All things tolled, Bublik--who turned 28 last June--had his best season, winning four titles, more than anyone but Sinner and Alcaraz, and as much as 2022-24 combined. He also finished the year #11, his first finish in the top 30, and won six matches against 10 players. Who is Bublik? Well, he was born of couple months after Zverev, and was part of Eastern European-dominated Next Gen cohort of players born in the mid-to-late 90s. But he was in the "second class" of that group, and slow to develop early on, then stagnated in the 30-50 range for much of his prime. So what happened in 2025 and, more importantly, is it sustainable?
Who knows. Either way, Bublik is one of the more interesting players right now. At the least, he's a wildcard that no one wants to see in their draw. He can presumably beat anyone on a good day
My Prediction: To repeat: who knows. That said, I would be surprised if Bublik suddenly developed a consistent game and became a fixture in the top 10 for the next few years. But I do think he'll continue to be (at least) a dangerous floater, and I hope there's more of what we saw to come. Of the guys who seem to max out at a level below Masters winner, Bublik is guy that wouldn't totally surprise me if he snuck one out. In fact, while I'd give Auger-Aliassime and possibly Arthur Fils a greater chance of being new Masters winners in 2026, I'd say Bublik is right there with De Minaur (and maybe Tommy Paul) next: but as an anti-De Minaur or anti-Paul. Both of those players fit into the Casper Ruud mold: very good players who might win a Masters by default (that is, if Sincaraz aren't in the mix). But Bublik could win a Masters on his own racket. Will he? Probably not, but one can dream and it would be a blast to watch happen.
SOME HONORABLE MENTIONS:
Holger Rune - He may miss the entire year, but if he comes back, will he be able to return to top 10 form and, if so, when? Probably not until either very late in the year or possibly 2026. Oh, the Holger who could have been...
Learner Tien - An interesting contrast to Mensik among the top non-Brazillian prospects. He also improved late in the season and seems a lock to become a fixture in the top 20 for years to come. The question is about upside? He'll almost certainly reach the top 10 at some point, but does he have the chops to win a big title?
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - You know why.
Valentin Vacherot - Possibly the biggest surprise Masters winner of the last two decades, and a bit of a throwback to an era in which quite a few players would surprise (remember Alberto Portas or Andrei Pavel, anyone?). Vacherot actually followed it up with a QF run in Paris, so he might have a pretty good next few years in him. I don't expect a repeat Masters title, but it would be nice to see him be a top 20-40 guy.
Jiri Lehecka - Might be the definition of "dangerous floater." We could add Cerundolo, Cobolli, and several others here.
Zverev/Medvedev/Tsitsipas/Rublev - The top players of Next Gen all seem in some form of decline. Can any of them resurge?
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